51. Chris Webber - This late, he’s an OK risk.
52. Emeka Okafor - What’s an Okafor? For teams that already have a strong C1.
53. Andre Iguodala - There’s always that chance he could break out, but he’s got nice value even if he doesn’t.
54. Antawn Jamison - Could be overvalued based on his strong finish, but this is about right for him.
55. Jameer Nelson - Could (should?) be a top-10 PG.
56. Caron Butler - as solid as a mid-round pick can be.
57. Shaquille O’Neal - Is he really this low? Yes.
58. Al Harrington - Over-rated, probably.
59. David West - Needs to prove he can establish himself with more weapons around him.
60. Mike Miller - Who else is going to score on the Grizzlies?
61. Chris Kaman - Ugly isn’t a category, but he’s still got plenty of value.
62. Troy Murphy - C-eligibility will be a big boost, if he gets it.
63. Ricky Davis - should be #2 man behind KG on T-Wolves.
64. Tony Parker - Improved FT% could send value skyocketing, if it’s true.
65. Mike James - no longer first option, or even second.
66. Charlie Villanueva - A promising start, but this rating assumes he’ll improve.
67. Rafer Alston - Almost last call for reliable PG’s…
68. Deron Williams - …there’s the last one.
69. Richard Hamilton - Need points? Here they are!
70. Andrew Bogut - The injury will scare off a lot of folks, but he should be fine pretty soon.
71. Zach Randolph - As long as you know what you’re getting he’s a fine mid-rounder.
72. Cuttino Mobley - At 31, possibly on the down side of his career.
73. Samuel Dalembert - Not dependable enough to be a C1, but a potentially monsterous C2
74. Brandon Roy - Overtaken Morrison as first rookie taken with a stronger preseason.
75. Larry Hughes - a shadow of his former self.
76. Steve Francis - You just can’t let him fall any farther, but there’s no good reason to think he’ll be valuable.
77. Raja Bell - He shouldn’t see the 38 mpg that he saw last year.
78. Wally Szczerbiak - Shhh…last year was his best ever.
79. Corey Maggette - Might struggle for minutes … a constant injury risk.
80. Mo Williams - He could be a steal here.
81. Josh Howard - Remember that huge tier of small forwards?…
82. Morris Peterson - …Well this is where they all go.
83. Adam Morrison - The next Rip Hamilton?
84. Manu Ginobili - He won’t last this long, but here’s where his real value is.
85. Drew Gooden - Across the board drops last year should turn around now that the Cavs are committed to him.
86. Tayshaun Prince - Another safe pick at this point.
87. Nenad Krstic - There have been rumors of threes from Nenad this year, but I’d prefer rebounds.
88. Andres Nocioni - Lots of hype here.
89. TJ Ford - May need to kick up the scoring in Toronto.
90. Eddy Curry - This late, he’s a fine choice as a C2.
91. Eddie Jones - Clear number two behind Mike Miller. Bad for Grizzlies, good for Jones.
92. Smush Parker - Ended up surprisingly OK on the Player Rater.
93. Marvin Williams - Sleeper Alert!
94. Tyson Chandler - Slacker Alert!
95. Kevin Martin - Possible breakout this year.
96. Ben Gordon - Points and threes are nothing to sneeze at.
97. Luke Ridnour - Still waiting for this situation to shake out.
98. Luol Deng - great value this late, if he can find PT.
99. JR Smith - his stock is slipping fast, though.
100. Vladimir Radmanovic - Not a bad risk this late, could find a nice role on other LA team.
Long time reader, first time writer here.
Wouldn’t you rate Shane Battier in your top-100 for this season?
I thought he’d be somewhere around 70th.
Keep up the good job!
Francesc.
francesc,
ABSOLUTELY. honestly, i thought i had put him in the top 50! big mistake on my part, i’ve been pushing Battier all month. I’d put him right around 50, but it looks like I value him more than most folks.
No problem, bv, i had him ranked somewhere in the 6th round (mid 50’s) but i think you can get him cheaper than that, around 70th or even later.
BTW, do you think Brandon Roy can be dependable fantasy wise this season? Should i look at him as a fantasy starter, or play it safe and see him just playable on 4-game weeks.
Thanks in advance.
Francesc.
I still don’t get why, for example, Okafor should be pickable at #52 for teams who already have a C, but not for teams that don’t already have a C.
Also, on David West: could you explain why you view “percentage players” as less valuable? Is it just that percentages are more variable year to year than the other categories?
i wrote a long post here and then lost it so heres the shortened version:
zach randolph is garbage. 100-110, would rather have krstic!
mo pete is about right but with big upside
eddy curry-im not sold on him 110-120
jr smith-dont trust someone who doesnt want to play d, might end up in karls doghouse 120-130. but he could also do something
Terrance,
I’m not a huge Randolph fan, but still think he’s a fine value pick in the 7th-8th round (pick 84-96)
You need to factor in that all his stats were down last year because he was coming of microfracture knee surgery…particulalry his %’s.
The three years preceding his knee surgery he shot:
82%,76%,76% FT
51%,49%,45% FG
Last year he didn’t have the knee strength to play down low, so he shot mostly outside shots - hence the declining FG%
The knee also affected his FT shooting.
His knee’s been looking great thus far…he’s the leading scorer in the NBA this pre-season, and is also averaging 2.6 assts and 1 stl (I know that preseason doesn’t mean much, but still it shows something)
His stats had been declining the last few years before the injury as his team got worse and worse, and he was forced to take bad shots. The Blazers are now on the upswing, and he’s been surrounded by solid,unselfish players who will keep the ball moving and ensure he gets better shots. (i.e. Jack,Roy,Dickau,etc.) Also, the presence of outside shooters (Webster, Lafrentz, Roy) will open up the floor, and reduce his double teams.
Will Roy be dependable? Well, he’s got his fans amongst our commenters, that’s for sure. But he’s a rookie, so be prepared for ups and downs.
As for Okafor - look at it this way. He’s a big risk, but he’s also got a pretty decent ceiling. If I’ve got a shaky C1 (say, Camby), i don’t want to add a shaky C2 to the mix in Okafor. I’d rather wait a bit and take a lower-ceiling, lower-risk guy like a Krstic or Bogut or someone like that.
Check out Deron Williams’s numbers from Pre-season. Not as much hype, but he could also be a breakout. He’s certainly starting better than Jameer Nelson and is going much, much lower in drafts. Furthermore, pay attention to Jarret Jack because he is the unquestioned starter at PG in Portland and should put up some pretty good numbers for a guy who probably won’t be a regular starter on a fantasy team.
Where do you guys see Bonzi Wells fitting in with Houston? Do you draft him at the end of your bench for when Tmac gets hurt again? Furthermore, how will this affect the value of Shane Battier. Wells does not appear to have played in a preseason game yet, so I wonder how it will all work out, but he is someone imo to keep an eye on.
I think that with Wells in the picture, someone like Caron Butler would be a better bet than Battier for this upcoming year.