Well this is the last you’ll hear from me (probably) before the start of the season.  Tomorrow, PR will have his first “Head to Head’s Up” column of the year, looking at some draft strategies for H2H leagues.  But a lot has happened since the beginning of September, when we started our season previews, so I thought I’d tie up some loose ends and chime in on some recent developments:

On The Injury Front
If there’s one thing that we’re fond of saying, it’s that we’re not doctors, nor do we play them on TV (however, if we did, it would probably more “Scrubs” than “ER” or “House MD”).  So basically, we have no idea how long Mike Bibby or Chris Bosh will be out.  We’re working off of the same information you are.  What I’d suggest is going back and looking at a guy’s injury history.  For example, with Bosh, he’s never missed a ton of time – last year’s 12 games missed were his most ever and that was at the end of the year when they were playing for (and getting) the first pick in the draft.  I’d say he’s OK to draft in the mid-second round.  Bibby has only missed serious time twice in eight years, and if he’s only out two weeks, meaning 5 or 6 games, I wouldn’t move him much down your draft boards. 

Two guys who are of bigger concern are Kobe Bryant and Gerald Wallace.  Kobe is no stranger to missing time, having missed at least 14 games in 5 of the last 7 seasons, and things sound pretty vague regarding his knee.  He hasn’t played all preseason and it’s just been a little too quiet for my liking.  This is your first round pick you’re talking about here, and I’m extremely risk-averse when it comes to first rounders.  Keep a close eye on this, but we may not know anything until the starting lineups are announced on Halloween.  Wallace, meanwhile, is having issues with back spasms.  As Tracy McGrady owners found out last year, back problems don’t just go away.  Wallace has had a history of missing a ton of time (he’s missed about 1/3 of his potential games so far in his career) and this is not good news.  I said earlier that I wouldn’t take Wallace before the 5th round and I stand by that now.

Rookie Watch
One of the few things that preseason games are good for is to evaluate how rookies are shaping up.  Close observers last year would have noticed Chris Paul’s Kidd-esque penchant for rebounds, or Charlie Villanueva’s fascination with the three pointer that he never shot in college.  So what have we seen this year?  Let’s look with Rudy Gay and his ability to produce on defense.  He was a big steals-and-blocks guy at UConn, and those numbers seem to be carrying over to the NBA.  He’s been seeing major minutes and putting together some very versatile stat lines this preseason, and should be a major contributor for the Grizz especially while Gasol is out.  While Brandon Roy is the favorite this year for Fantasy ROY, Gay is a terrific sleeper.

Risk Watch
OK, I’m going to close with this.  We’ve spent a lot of time talking about risk and where and when it’s ok to take a risk.  When in doubt, the best strategy is this: Safety first.  Risky later.  I really don’t like “experts” who participate in 5 or 10 leagues because it really makes risky guys less risky.  If you draft Tracy McGrady in the second round, for example, and he gets hurt, oh well – just move on to your other teams and try to salvage something decent out of that one.  We here at FBB are active participants in just one or two leagues each, and I like to think that most of our readers are the same way.  So when we look at risks, we ask ourselves, “Am I ready for this guy to be injured and totally ruin my chances of winning my fantasy league and thus piss me off for 5 months?”  And the answer – for me, at least – is no.  There’s nothing worse than sitting there in February, with football over, baseball still 2 months away, and having a disaster of a fantasy basketball team.  So only when there are no other options am I going to hinge my fantasy season on a shaky knee or an achy back.  But later in the draft, take those risks – lots of ‘em.  Cut them quick when they don’t pan out, but if you hit on one or two of them your team is going to be tough all year long.  So with that, good luck, and I’ll cya at the start of the season.