Greetings FantasyBasketblog readers.  It’s great to be back for my second season as a contributing editor at FBB.  I’m so excited, I can practically smell that new technologically advanced Spalding moisture-managing microfiber official NBA game ball.  I can’t wait to see how much the new rock improves my game!
As some of you may recall, I capped off last season with an alternative draft strategy for those of you who compete in head-to-head fantasy hoops leagues.  Emphasis is placed on pursuing players who will help your team win specific categories each and every week, no matter who your opponent, while having a legitimate shot at winning the remaining categories.
Here’s the gist of it: Avoid swingmen at all costs. SGs and SFs simply do not do enough to help your team in weekly H2H matchups. Most G/Fs do not make above average contributions in categories other than points and maybe threes. Resist the temptation to draft the Carmelos, Al Harringtons, and Rip Hamiltons of the league. Instead, aim to dominate four or five out of the eight categories by targeting Point Guards (assists, threes, steals, FT%) and F/Cs (rebounds, blocks, FG%). If you end up with 3 or 4 top PGs and 3 or 4 top F/Cs then you will be primed to dominate assists, threes, steals, and blocks every week while remaining competitive in percentages and rebounds (with the conversely strong/weak contributions from your PGs and big men). The only disadvantage you’d probably be facing each week would be in the points department. Barring any serious injuries to your team or terrible luck, you will win your H2H matchup nearly every week by a score of 5-3, 6-2, or 7-1.
Your first six draft picks should look something like this: PG, PF, PG, C, PG, PF. Swingmen are a dime a dozen with plenty of sleepers available late in drafts anyway. Unlike fantasy baseball where you want to make sure you draft quality players at scarce positions; in fantasy hoops you can still find guys at the end of your draft or off the waiver wire who can be everyday starters at the G/F positions.

The only SG/SFs I wouldn’t discourage you from selecting on draft day would be the obvious super-studs like LeBron, Kobe, Pierce, Ray Allen, and the Matrix.  An argument can also be made for multi-cat contributors like AK-47, Gerald Wallace, Andre Iguodala, and Josh Smith.  If you can get any of them at a good spot in your draft, you should go ahead and fill that required SG/SF slot early on.

The following are the recently updated lists for top point guards and big men according to this “H2H Calibrated” drafting strategy:

Top Point Guards
1. Gilbert Arenas – 24 years old, and the Wizards’ Cap’n keeps getting better.
2. Dwayne Wade – He doesn’t shoot threes, but he’s working on it.  Plus he makes up for it elsewhere.
3. Chris Paul – Will probably be the #1 PG in 2007, especially if he starts dialing from long distance regularly.
4. Jason Kidd – His superior contributions in rebounds and steals bumps him up.
5. Steve Nash – He may dish out a dozen assists a night, but he’s weak in the theft department.  Then again, he did invent the best dance move of the last decade: “The Nash”.  It’s your call.
6. Allen Iverson – Hey, maybe you’ll compete in points after all.  Injury risk makes him a second rounder in my book.
7. Chauncey Billups – Chauncey will be hard-pressed to repeat on a career season.
8. Mike Bibby – Like Billups last year, I expect Sac-town’s veteran PG to max out with career highs this season.  Injury to his shooting hand is a minor concern.
9. Raymond Felton – His post all-star break numbers (17/4/8) were comparable to Paul’s.  His FG% was ugly (39%), but according to BV’s upside-barometer Felton will be “well worth your while” at this point.
10. Kirk Hinrich – Solid all-around game, Hinrich has improved his shooting percentage each season in the league.
11. Jameer Nelson – Why Nelson came off the bench for most of last season, I can’t tell you.  He is a prime sleeper candidate this year leading that young Orlando squad.
12. Jason Terry – Will usually play as the off-guard, limiting his assist numbers.  JT is now comfortable in Avery Johnson’s offense and will give you an advantage in percentages and threes.
13. Speedy Claxton – Do nicknames like “Speedy” stick with players throughout their careers or do they grow out of them? You think that as he gets older we’ll go back to calling him Craig?  Or perhaps “Not quite so Speedy” Claxton?  It’s kinda like Gary Payton… I no longer refer to him as “the Glove,” he’s now  “the Oven Mitt.”  Anyways, Claxton finds himself in an ideal situation with guaranteed minutes in ‘06-07. The veteran ball handler should post career highs with plenty of young talent around him in the ATL.
14. Stephon Marbury – Starbury was a consensus top-5 point guard for years before the disaster in New York last season.  Many are predicting a return to form this year, but I’m not so sure.  He averaged only 0.6 threes per game last season, and there’s still a logjam in the backcourt with Francis, Crawford, Rose, and Robinson, all vying for minutes.  Do you really believe Coach Isaiah Thomas is gonna fix the mess he created as GM?  Me neither, I’ll pass.
15. Baron Davis (he’s lucky to crack the top 15) – Do yourself a favor and let another fantasy owner deal with the headache that is Baron Davis. Yes, he could “make or break” your season, but he’ll more than likely shatter it into a million pieces.  We all know about the health risks, and his percentages are putrid (39FG%, 68FT% last year). No thank you.
16. Deron Williams – Has the skill set to be a top fantasy PG, but the acquisition of Derek Fisher just means more platooning.
17. Luke Ridnour – Won’t score much, but should dish out 8 dimes a night running that Seattle offense.
18. Rafer Alston – He believes he’s one of the best point guards in the league.  I think he’s 18th best.
19. Sam Cassell – My guess is he’ll physically break down before the new year, and the Shaun Livingston era will begin in 2007.  I’d rather draft the youngin’ a few rounds later.
20. T.J. Ford – He’s the best point guard north of the border this season.

Others: Mike James, Mo Williams, Jarrett Jack, Sebastian Telfair, Delonte West

Top BIG Men
1. Kevin Garnett – He’s still KG.
2. Elton Brand – Not only did he win the NBA Sportsmanship Award (for “exemplifying the ideals of sportsmanship on the court: ethical behavior, fair play and integrity”), but the Clips’ PF elevated his game to a whole new level last season.  Great percentages and improvements in points & blocks make Brand a “big man on campus” among big men this year.
3. Dirk Nowitzki – He may have choked hard in last year’s finals, but Dirk proved to be a warrior last season.  He’s still a finesse player, but just don’t call him soft.
4. Yao Ming – With his improvement on offense and fantastic percentages, Yao is the best center-eligible player in the league.  I’m no podiatrist but I am concerned about his chronic foot injuries.  Being a giant doesn’t come without its problems.
5. Tim Duncan – Plagued by nagging injuries last year, T-Dunk should have a rebound of sorts this season.
6. Chris Bosh – Blocks and steals were down a bit last year while he improved everywhere else.  Look for Bosh to put it all together in 2006-07.
7. Jermaine O’Neal – Lackluster FG% for a top PF, plus his health is a concern.  Don’t overbid.
8. Ben Wallace – Will Big Ben’s rebounding and dominant defense transfer to the Windy City? Yes.
9. Brad Miller – Unconventional 7-footer.  Great percentages, but rebounds and defensive cats are down.  Remember when he was a Charlotte Hornet?
10. Amare Stoudemire (higher if healthy) – Why do I get a feeling that his injury is of the Bo Jackson variety?
11. Dwight Howard – Led the league in rebounding last year and is still just 20 years old!  He’s a stud who should push 20 ppg this season, but beware of that terrible FT%.
12. Zydrunas Ilgauskus – No longer injury prone, big Z is a major piece of the Cav’s puzzle.
13. Mehmet Okur – He could continue to improve on his rebounding totals if he cuts back on the hair gel.
14. Chris Kaman – Really figured things out last year.  Can he keep improving? I think so.
15. Rasheed Wallace – ‘sheed and the rest of the Pistons busted out with career bests last season.  I doubt he’ll repeat, and he likely won’t be eligible at center again this year.
16. Marcus Camby – Makes up half of the most fragile frontcourt in the NBA, but is a fantasy warrior when healthy.
17. Carlos Boozer – Big plus in FG%, but Luke Ridnour averaged more blocks per game than Boozer (0.3 to 0.2) last year.
18. Antawn Jamison - Hits the glass like a PF, and the development of his 3-point stroke will make up for the lack of blocks.
19. David West – Career season last year may have been a fluke.  His upside is limited anyway.
20. Pau Gasol – You know what the Spaniard can do when healthy.  He’s due back in January and could pay huge dividends in your fantasy playoffs.
21. Kendrick Perkins – Boards and blocks galore.
22. Andrew Bogut – Should average a double-double and 1.5 blocks.
23. Darko Milicic – Could lead the league in blocks with starter’s minutes.
24. Tyson Chandler – Could average 10 and 12 with 2 blocks on his new squad.
25. Chris Wilcox - Maryland Alum is poised to disappoint.  Note his center-eligibility however.

Others: Charlie Villanueva, Drew Gooden, Nenad Krstic

If you land 7 or 8 of these 45 players (while waiting until the later rounds to grab a SG and SF) you should cruise to the top of the standings and an FBA championship. All that said, there are a handful of PGs and big men that don’t contribute enough in the necessary categories and should be left for other GMs to worry about:

Point Guards to avoid:
Tony Parker – I’ve had enough of his “tear drop” shot.  Plus, he can’t shoot from long range (0.1 threes per game) or from the line (career 69.9%FT).
Steve Francis – Stevie Franchise has always been a little overrated.  He’s a great rebounder, but doesn’t shoot a lot of threes.  Plus, the main drawback is uncertainty about playing time in NY.
Brevin Knight – Allergic to threes and his job security will be in jeopardy this season.
Andre Miller – Can’t shoot from long range, and just plain boring.

Power Forwards to avoid:
Boris Diaw – He may be eligible at every position, but he’ll be overvalued on draft day.  The return of Stoudemire clouds things a bit, and Diaw just doesn’t post typical big man numbers.
Emeka Okafor – Poor percentages and has trouble staying healthy.
Chris Webber – Always an injury risk, plus his FG% and blocks have declined over the years.
Troy Murphy – Often considered a value pick, T-Murph is weak on defense and his FG% is a major liability. His three-point range is NOT enough to compensate.
Zach Randolph - Poor FG%, poor defense, poor attitude, just downright impoverished.

Centers to avoid:
Shaq – Diesel’s FT% (and FT attempts) is so much of a liability that you will never win the category.
Jam Magloire – Poor percentages, mediocre blocked shots, uncertain situation in Portland.
Zaza Pachulia – Poor FG%, weak defensive cats.  Rookie Shelden Williams will also cut into his minutes.
Primoz Brezec –Do you love to pick daisies and daffodils?  Then picking Primoz may be to your liking as well.