So I’ve been out of town for the last 10 days, leading right up to the start of the basketball season. And I haven’t just been out of town, but I’ve been completely lacking any sort of e-mail/computer, let alone finding information such as who’s going to win the starting center job for the Wizards. It’s the longest I’ve gone without regular Internet access in years. And while I won’t say it was a great thing, it actually happened at a decent time. Sure, I missed the end of the preseason right before my draft tomorrow night, but since I don’t really care about the preseason, it helped me avoid getting wrapped up in some small story. I’m read through enough to find out about the most important injuries, position battles, etc. I’ll adjust my lists accordingly. But for the most part I’ll stick with what I had before I went away. Anyway, since there’s not much to do before tomorrow’s glorious, glorious start to the season, let’s indulge in some fantasy award prognosticating.
Fantasy MVP
LeBron James
Not really going out on a limb here, but this could be a fantasy season for the ages. I’m not really feeling an Oscar Robertston 30/10/10 thing, but I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see LeBron average 2+ in 3s and steals, which might be even more valuable if he can stay get around 8 boards/assists per game. I’m not basing this on anything more than a hunch, but I have a feeling that Zyrdunas Ilgauskas will have a big drop off this year. He missed 9 games in the last three seasons and got his fat contract – it might be time for him to take some time off this year. If that’s the case, the Cavs can go small and really get out and run more, meaning more numbers for LeBron.
Could Also Be: Elton Brand, Gilbert Arenas
Darkhorse: Andrei Kirilenko
Biggest Bust
Dwight Howard
I’m just not sold on Howard yet. I’m really not. He’s obviously young enough that he’ll make a leap, I’m just not at all sure it will be The Leap. Being both reasonable and optimistic, 70% seems like his absolute peak from the free throw line this year. And he’ll be getting there a ton, so he’s going to do some damage, which is just killer in roto leagues. Other than that, he’s not just ready to be a dominant scorer. He didn’t even average 11 attempts per game last year. His “imminent center eligibility” has many people psyched, and it’s always nice to have a top center, but the center pool is actually fairly deep this year. You should be able to nab two solid ones pretty easily. He’s a complete black hole in 3s, which is fine, but he’s not much better in steals or assists. He’s regularly going ahead of players such as Joe Johnson, Vince Carter and Michael Redd, which just seems a bit silly to me.
Could Also Be: Josh Smith, Brad Miller
Darkhorse: Allen Iverson
Comeback Star
Stephon Marbury
The complete and total disaster in New York last season combined with Marbury’s impeccable consistency throughout his career up to that point has me fairly convinced that he’ll recover very nicely. Not convinced enough to draft him tomorrow night like last year never happened, but I have a sneaking suspicion he’s going to end up on my team (unless BV gets to him first). The Knicks are still a team that doesn’t look to mesh especially well, and the backcourt is plenty crowded, but Marbury is still the clear leader back there. If the Knicks don’t win, they at least want to be entertaining and score a lot, and that’s something Marbury can make happen. Look for Isiah to try to get him back to 40 mpg and for his numbers to rebound almost fully to their norms.
Could Also Be: Amare Stoudemire, Zach Randolph
Darkhorse: Shareef Abdur-Rahim
Not So Comeback Star
Larry Hughes
Hughes wasn’t just injured last year – he was pretty awful when he did play. Things are bound to get better this year, but don’t expect anything particularly close to his contract push season of 04-05 with the Wizards. Hughes has been in the league for eight seasons, and in 04-05 he set career highs in points, rebounds, assists, steals and free throws made. Those are five of the eight fantasy categories. He simply won’t do that again. For all the talk about his bad finger – which still isn’t completely healed – affecting his shooting, it’s a convenient excuse for Hughes, who is a 41% shooter on his career. He’s still a decent mid-round pick, but usually you like more 3s from someone who will kill your FG% as much as he does.
Could Also Be: Kenyon Martin, Amare Stoudemire
Darkhorse: Emeka Okafor
Breakout Star
Luol Deng
It might be a subtle breakout, but I think we’ve found the next swingman in the Josh Howard/Tayshaun Prince mold, just with more offense. Deng has put up solid numbers in his first two seasons, but you have to remember that he did that after playing just a single season at Duke. He’s still just 21 years old and should continue to show great improvement. He doesn’t have one particular skill that jumps out to fantasy owners, but that might just help him slide a bit in drafts. He eased up on the 3s last year, but it’s conceivable that he could be come a 1/1/1 player in 3s/steals/blocks, while putting up 16 and 8 with decent percentages. He does still have fickle Scott Skiles, Andres Nocioni and a deep frontcourt in general to deal with, but as a 20-year old he managed to see 33.4 mpg last year – second on the team only to Kirk Hinrich – so that number shouldn’t really go down.
Could Also Be: Channing Frye, Deron Williams
Darkhorse: Kevin Martin
Rookie of the Year
Rudy Gay
Well, at least for fantasy purposes. BV noted recently that Gay was a very solid steals/blocks guy at UConn and that it contined into the preseason. He’s also a dynamic scorer and that will be needed on the Pau-less Grizzlies, who for the first few months won’t have anyone on the roster who averaged even 16 ppg in either of the last two seasons. Gay appears to be blocked in at SF by Mike Miller, but it’s conceivable he could play some PF, especially with the small ball fad sweeping the league. The Grizz will try to grind out victories but will still need to get to at least 90 points or so, and they’ll need Gay to do that. So while it’s his scoring ability that will likely have him out on the floor, it’s his defense that could really endear him to fantasy owners.
Could Also Be: Brandon Roy, Adam Morrison
Darkhorse: Anthony Parker
And just for fun, because I do actually care about the real games too.
Atlantic: New Jersey
Central: Detroit
Southeast: Miami
Other East playoff teams: Cleveland, Chicago, Washington, Indiana, Boston
Southwest: San Antonio
Northwest: Denver
Pacific: Phoenix
Other West playoff teams: Dallas, Houston, LA Lakers, Utah, LA Clippers
Conference Finals: Miami over Cleveland, San Antonio over Phoenix
Finals: San Antonio over Miami