So I’ve been out of town for the last 10 days, leading right up to the start of the basketball season. And I haven’t just been out of town, but I’ve been completely lacking any sort of e-mail/computer, let alone finding information such as who’s going to win the starting center job for the Wizards. It’s the longest I’ve gone without regular Internet access in years. And while I won’t say it was a great thing, it actually happened at a decent time. Sure, I missed the end of the preseason right before my draft tomorrow night, but since I don’t really care about the preseason, it helped me avoid getting wrapped up in some small story. I’m read through enough to find out about the most important injuries, position battles, etc. I’ll adjust my lists accordingly. But for the most part I’ll stick with what I had before I went away. Anyway, since there’s not much to do before tomorrow’s glorious, glorious start to the season, let’s indulge in some fantasy award prognosticating.
Fantasy MVP
LeBron James
Not really going out on a limb here, but this could be a fantasy season for the ages. I’m not really feeling an Oscar Robertston 30/10/10 thing, but I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see LeBron average 2+ in 3s and steals, which might be even more valuable if he can stay get around 8 boards/assists per game. I’m not basing this on anything more than a hunch, but I have a feeling that Zyrdunas Ilgauskas will have a big drop off this year. He missed 9 games in the last three seasons and got his fat contract – it might be time for him to take some time off this year. If that’s the case, the Cavs can go small and really get out and run more, meaning more numbers for LeBron.
Could Also Be: Elton Brand, Gilbert Arenas
Darkhorse: Andrei Kirilenko
Biggest Bust
Dwight Howard
I’m just not sold on Howard yet. I’m really not. He’s obviously young enough that he’ll make a leap, I’m just not at all sure it will be The Leap. Being both reasonable and optimistic, 70% seems like his absolute peak from the free throw line this year. And he’ll be getting there a ton, so he’s going to do some damage, which is just killer in roto leagues. Other than that, he’s not just ready to be a dominant scorer. He didn’t even average 11 attempts per game last year. His “imminent center eligibility†has many people psyched, and it’s always nice to have a top center, but the center pool is actually fairly deep this year. You should be able to nab two solid ones pretty easily. He’s a complete black hole in 3s, which is fine, but he’s not much better in steals or assists. He’s regularly going ahead of players such as Joe Johnson, Vince Carter and Michael Redd, which just seems a bit silly to me.
Could Also Be: Josh Smith, Brad Miller
Darkhorse: Allen Iverson
Comeback Star
Stephon Marbury
The complete and total disaster in New York last season combined with Marbury’s impeccable consistency throughout his career up to that point has me fairly convinced that he’ll recover very nicely. Not convinced enough to draft him tomorrow night like last year never happened, but I have a sneaking suspicion he’s going to end up on my team (unless BV gets to him first). The Knicks are still a team that doesn’t look to mesh especially well, and the backcourt is plenty crowded, but Marbury is still the clear leader back there. If the Knicks don’t win, they at least want to be entertaining and score a lot, and that’s something Marbury can make happen. Look for Isiah to try to get him back to 40 mpg and for his numbers to rebound almost fully to their norms.
Could Also Be: Amare Stoudemire, Zach Randolph
Darkhorse: Shareef Abdur-Rahim
Not So Comeback Star
Larry Hughes
Hughes wasn’t just injured last year – he was pretty awful when he did play. Things are bound to get better this year, but don’t expect anything particularly close to his contract push season of 04-05 with the Wizards. Hughes has been in the league for eight seasons, and in 04-05 he set career highs in points, rebounds, assists, steals and free throws made. Those are five of the eight fantasy categories. He simply won’t do that again. For all the talk about his bad finger – which still isn’t completely healed – affecting his shooting, it’s a convenient excuse for Hughes, who is a 41% shooter on his career. He’s still a decent mid-round pick, but usually you like more 3s from someone who will kill your FG% as much as he does.
Could Also Be: Kenyon Martin, Amare Stoudemire
Darkhorse: Emeka Okafor
Breakout Star
Luol Deng
It might be a subtle breakout, but I think we’ve found the next swingman in the Josh Howard/Tayshaun Prince mold, just with more offense. Deng has put up solid numbers in his first two seasons, but you have to remember that he did that after playing just a single season at Duke. He’s still just 21 years old and should continue to show great improvement. He doesn’t have one particular skill that jumps out to fantasy owners, but that might just help him slide a bit in drafts. He eased up on the 3s last year, but it’s conceivable that he could be come a 1/1/1 player in 3s/steals/blocks, while putting up 16 and 8 with decent percentages. He does still have fickle Scott Skiles, Andres Nocioni and a deep frontcourt in general to deal with, but as a 20-year old he managed to see 33.4 mpg last year – second on the team only to Kirk Hinrich – so that number shouldn’t really go down.
Could Also Be: Channing Frye, Deron Williams
Darkhorse: Kevin Martin
Rookie of the Year
Rudy Gay
Well, at least for fantasy purposes. BV noted recently that Gay was a very solid steals/blocks guy at UConn and that it contined into the preseason. He’s also a dynamic scorer and that will be needed on the Pau-less Grizzlies, who for the first few months won’t have anyone on the roster who averaged even 16 ppg in either of the last two seasons. Gay appears to be blocked in at SF by Mike Miller, but it’s conceivable he could play some PF, especially with the small ball fad sweeping the league. The Grizz will try to grind out victories but will still need to get to at least 90 points or so, and they’ll need Gay to do that. So while it’s his scoring ability that will likely have him out on the floor, it’s his defense that could really endear him to fantasy owners.
Could Also Be: Brandon Roy, Adam Morrison
Darkhorse: Anthony Parker
And just for fun, because I do actually care about the real games too.
Atlantic: New Jersey
Central: Detroit
Southeast: Miami
Other East playoff teams: Cleveland, Chicago, Washington, Indiana, Boston
Southwest: San Antonio
Northwest: Denver
Pacific: Phoenix
Other West playoff teams: Dallas, Houston, LA Lakers, Utah, LA Clippers
Conference Finals: Miami over Cleveland, San Antonio over Phoenix
Finals: San Antonio over Miami
156 Responses to “Award Predictions”
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
October 30th, 2006 at 8:53 am
always a pleasure to read your site
you should do a column on “what to do when you screwed up your draft and forsee a season of doom and gloom because you thought your draft was at 5:30 but it actually was at 5″ aka “how to get rid of pau gasol”
October 30th, 2006 at 9:41 am
lol, now thats a good comment. i know alot of people would like a column on this!
October 30th, 2006 at 10:05 am
yeah, i like the brakout star to be deron williams. has breakout written all over him.
the biggest bust to me has to be gerald wallace. i cant think of a player that has played so little to crack the top three rounds. hes definantly proven, but do you really want to waste a 3rd round pick on him when you could get joe johnson, mike bibby, michael redd, or brad miller? i sure couldnt.
glad to see you bring anthony paker up for roty, he has gotten no pub! ill be keeping a close eye on him, getting the start @ sg!
miami?!? i was glad they won it all last year cos im a fan of shaq. i know im going with the fashionable pick, but the bulls have the pieces. so ill take the suns over the bulls if amare is healthy.
October 30th, 2006 at 11:12 am
My take on a few of your selections:
MVP:
LeBron: I had him last year and – believe it or not – was somewhat disappointed. Having clearly established himself as “The Man” for the Cavs (not to mention the entire NBA), he took on more of a scorer’s role, leaving his assist and rebound totals below what I’d hoped. His FT% wasn’t that great, his steal numbers were down and his TOs just killed me. Maybe his FT% improves this year, but with no other stud scorers around him I don’t really see any reason for a big leap in his other numbers. I guess we can *yawn* expect another 30/6/6 or so. Yea, it’s worthy of the overall #1 pick and probable fantasy MVP but a fantasy season for the ages? Doubtful.
BTW, my dark horse pick for FMVP is Chris Paul. With Claxton gone and the normal improvement typically shown by 2nd yr PGs, he could easily become the consensus #1 NBA PG by year’s end.
BUST:
D. Howard: Hope you’re wrong on this one as I picked him in the 3rd round very much expecting that “leap” you spoke of. When Francis was shipped out, the Magic became his team and he showed more of an inclination to score. Also his preseason #s (yeah, I know, I know) show an increased penchant for steals and assists. He’ll never be KG but he could improve enough to establish himself as a first rounder next year.
Josh Smith (who I also selected) seems a more likely bust candidate as he still has a tendency to lose focus from time to time. But I couldn’t resist being dazzled by last year’s post-break #s and his youth. I tend to agree with the other commenter who mentioned Gerald Wallace. His injury history makes him an extremely dicey fourth round pick (where he went in our draft this year).
My bust pick: Yao – we’re starting to see the recurring foot problems which are the perennial bete noire for giants like him (see Sabonis, Smits, Sampson) He could be starting to break down. This could wind up being a long, frustrating season for Yao owners.
BREAKOUT:
Deng: He’s got the skills but he’s also got the Skiles. I tend to steer clear of Bulls unless injury or scarcity forces Scotty’s hand. Same problem with Deron in Utah. With Derek on board, Sloan has the latitude to sit Deron whenever he has a mind to. My guess is that Fisher will perform just well enough to prevent Williams from establishing himself as a 35 mpg PG this season. I much prefer Felton’s situation in Charlotte, despite the lingering presence of Knight.
My dark horse breakout guy: Charlie V., now that he’s out from under Bosh’s shadow.
Anyway, that’s my $ .02.
October 30th, 2006 at 3:50 pm
What about JR Smith for comeback star? he did have 8 for 13 threes in a preseason game. grant it, it was preseason but the three line is the same length as in regular season…
i also have a question. Now that Andrew Bogut is making a fast recovery and might start for the season opener, is it wise to start him yet? or will they ease him in? Right now I’m planning on putting Stro swift in front of him
October 30th, 2006 at 5:28 pm
[...] Luol Deng – Starter Alert! Deng seems to be getting a lot of love for a breakout year of sorts, or at least, nice sleeper material. Unlike some of the other Bulls, he did show (modest) improvement in most of his stats last year. Now he’ll be starting, he’s definitely worth taking a chance on this year. [...]
October 30th, 2006 at 9:38 pm
how can u say that gay will be better than roy. gay will only start until gasol is back. i know he is good, but roy will start no matter what and will get a lot of time to develop his already nba ready game. He will get better as the year goes on and won’t do nothing spectacular but a little bit of everything, 17pts 5reb 5ast 1.5 3s 1.5 stl 5ftm and about 45/38/81 for percentages in about 37 min/game. Gay will help u out but when it comes to the championship at the end of the year i would rather have roy.
October 31st, 2006 at 12:33 am
I think that you’re overly optimistic if you think Roy is going to come in and get 37 minutes per game, though I suppose that it isn’t impossible if he plays backup PG.
Portland was one of the most frustrating teams last year because just about no one on the team (perhaps outside of Randolph) averaged above 30 minutes per game. Add in the fact that you have Darius Miles, Martell Webster and Travis Outlaw (who absolutely has to prove himself this year or he is done) at the wing spots, as well as Jarret Jack and Sergio Rodriguiz on the team at PG, I think that Roy will get closer to 30-33 minutes per game. That, however, is still enough to make him plenty fantasy valuable, and his versatility may earn him even more court time.
So yes, Roy will be better than Gay over the course of the year (at least he should be) but you’re going to have to pay a higher premium come draft day.
October 31st, 2006 at 6:39 am
Jeremy basically said what I was going to say about Roy/Gay. There are certain teams I just don’t trust, and Portland is one of them. Also, everyone and their mom is picking Roy for ROY, so I figured I’d go out on a slight limb just to make things interesting.
As for other topics … I’d go with Bogut over Swift as long as he’s starting, which appears to be the case. Swift’s the one that needs to prove it.
Tough to make a case for JR Smith as Comeback Star. Comeback from what? I was mainly considering guys that used to be very early picks. Smith’s in a good situation, but I’m still skeptical.
March 5th, 2007 at 8:02 am
[...] It’s been an obviously wacky fantasy basketball campaign, and one of the wackiest seasons has been turned in by Stephon Marbury. With just a bit more than a month to go, it’s getting to the point where it’s hard to give too much advice on what you should do with your team. We’ll of course be telling you free agents to look for to help put you over the top, but I also think it’s important to use the last month of the season to reflect on lessons to be learned for future seasons. So let’s take a look at Marbury. Coming into the season, I was very high on Steph. I thought he would be the comeback star of the year and backed up my talk by taking him in the 4th round of my draft with the 45th overall pick. Needless to say, I was not too happy with this decision a month into the season. He was confused as to what his role with the team was, wasn’t his usual aggressive self and it all bottomed out on Nov. 25 when he didn’t even attempt a single shot in 19 minutes in a 106-95 loss at Chicago. He was being cut in many leagues but it just wasn’t something I could advise and we’ll make that the first lesson. [...]