Here’s the thing with shooting guards – there just aren’t too many of them worth having.  When we were splitting up people into positions to tier them, we used ESPN’s positions, where it seemed like the ground rules, basically, were that players qualified at their “biggest” position, except for PG’s.  So FC’s were treated as centers, F’s were power forwards, GF’s were small forwards, and G’s were point guards. So while there are a lot of good players who qualify at SG, the thing is that most of them also qualify elsewhere, and that’s where they went.  For example, guys like Dwyane Wade and Joe Johnson, they also qualify at PG, so they are treated as PG.  Other top picks like Paul Pierce, Tracy McGrady, and Vince Carter also qualify at SF, that’s where they go.  So what you end up with is only guys who qualify purely at SG for this tier ranking.  What you also end up with is a HUGE tier drop between tiers two and three, as you’ll see:

Tier 1
Kobe Bryant, Ray Allen
When a guy only qualifies at SG, he’s gotta be really good to go in the first round, and both of these guys qualify.  Kobe could very well be the top fantasy player in the league, and Ray Allen is one of the safest Top-20 bets in the league.

Tier 2
Jason Richardson
Boy, we really hate one-person tiers, but the gap between Richardson and the first and third tiers is just way too big for him to fit into either one of those.  Richardson should be a top-30 player as long as he’s healthy, but the injury risk means he may fall a bit in your draft.

Tier 3
Raja Bell, Richard Hamilton, Cuttino Mobley, Manu Ginobili, Larry Hughes, Brandon Roy.
See what I mean by the huge tier drop between 2 and 3?  J-Rich should be gone by the third … these guys shouldn’t even be considered until the fifth.  Some of them are good category fillers (like Hamilton and points, Mobley and threes), but for the most part this is just good filler.  We’re putting Brandon Roy here but he’s very clearly at the bottom of this tier, and he looked horrendous in his first preseason game. 

Tier 4
Jamal Crawford, Bonzi Wells, Kevin Martin, JR Smith, Randy Foye
OK, really, this is where Roy belongs, but his hype-o-meter readings say he’ll be taken above all these guys. (What, you mean you don’t have a hype-o-meter at home?  I keep mine in a case right next to my upside-gauge and my arrest-ability index.)  These guys are all late-round sleepers.  A couple of commenters have jumped on the Kevin Martin bandwagon and I don’t disagree with them, and he should probably be gone first, somewhere around the eighth round.  JR Smith is the other hot sleeper here, but I’m not completely sold there.  These guys are all draftable, and in some cases startable, but they really belong on your bench to start the year.

Tier 5
Fred Jones, DeShawn Stevenson, Flip Murray
These guys shouldn’t even be drafted but all could potentially have some value depending on how the first few weeks of the season shake out.

See?  That’s it for SG’s.  Not too much, right?  Tomorrow we’ll look at a much more crowded position, SF.

By this point everyone knows the value of tiering players; in many ways tiers are more valuable than overall rankings. When it gets to those middle rounds, rankings become very subjective, and taking the last solid point guard over one of many remaining solid shooting guard becomes the right move even if the shooting guard may be ranked a few spots higher.

NOTE: We usually use Yahoo as the default here, but in this instance we are using ESPN’s positions, since so many players in Yahoo have multiple position eligibility. It makes for some positions with not too many players, but, well, y’know.

Tier 1
Gilbert Arenas, Dwyane Wade, Allen Iverson, Steve Nash, Chris Paul

These are the best of the best. It’s not out of the question that all of these guys get taken in the first round. It’s a very subtle drop to the next tier, but it’s noticeable.

Tier 2
Jason Kidd, Joe Johnson, Chauncey Billups, Mike Bibby

Depending on how many separations you want to make, these guys can be in the above group. But nobody will be taking these guys in the first round. That said, they’ll likely be gone by the end of round 2, with the possible exception of Bibby.

Tier 3
Jason Terry, Kirk Hinrich, Andre Miller, Raymond Felton, Jameer Nelson, Baron Davis, Stephon Marbury

All of the above should make a solid PG1, but all have some issues. Terry is going to play off guard and won’t rack up the assists. Hinrich has a brutal FG% and might be as good as he’s going to get. Miller is consistent and boring, and the preseason hype of Denver’s run-and-gun offense might make him a bit overrated. Felton and Nelson are looking to put together a whole season of strong play, while Davis and Marbury are looking to bounce back to superstar levels.

Tier 4
Mike James, Tony Parker, Rafer Alston, Deron Williams

Here’s another mini-tier of unquestioned starters who should be plenty valuable. It’s tough to put James in here when he was better than everyone in the tier above him last year, but it’s going to be a very different situation in Minnesota.

Tier 5
Luke Ridnour, Steve Francis, Ben Gordon, T.J. Ford, Mo Williams, Damon Stoudamire, Sam Cassell, Delonte West, Jason Williams

Similar to the above tier, just with even more pressing questions. Will Ridnour, Cassell and West see as many minutes this year? Can Francis be productive as second-fiddle to Marbury? Can Ford, the Williamses and Stoudamire stay healthy? Can Gordon expand his game at all?

Tier 6
Derek Fisher, Speedy Claxton, Sebastian Telfair, Jarrett Jack, Devin Harris, Jamaal Tinsley, Smush Parker, Brevin Knight

Here we’ve got a bunch of players who are looking at possibly starting jobs, but don’t have too much of a track record to go on. Telfair, Jack and Harris are all young with upside, while Fisher and Claxton are solid vets and Tinsley is an ultimate tease, but without his main minutes competition from last year. There’s still reason to be skeptical of Parker after his out-of-nowhere performance last season, and Knight may be pushed into a backup role in Charlotte.

Tier 7
Earl Watson, Anthony Johnson, Carlos Arroyo

A mini-tier here of players who just might find themselves with a starting job, or at least enough minutes to provide some value in deep leagues.

Tier 8
Chris Duhon, Monta Ellis, Bobby Jackson, Antonio Daniels, Earl Boykins, Juan Dixon

These guys aren’t too likely to help out too much, but all of them have had at least some marginal value at times in the past year, so they are worth keeping an eye on.

Note - this was done before Luke Ridnour’s injury and competition from Earl Watson, he probably get bumped down a couple of rounds until that shakes out.

Team L: David West (Iverson, Bosh, Marbury, Stojakovic, Bogut)
Team K: Mike Miller (Allen, Duncan, G. Wallace, Hinrich, S. O’Neal)
Team J: Adam Morrison (Pierce, Nash, R. Wallace, Camby, A Harrington)
Team I: Chris Kaman (Ming, Paul, Lewis, Jefferson, J. Nelson)
Team H: Luke Ridnour (Arenas, Kirilenko, Artest, D. Howard, Battier)
Team G: Rafer Alston (Brand, V. Carter, Diaw, Felton, C. Butler)
Team F: Mike James (Wade, J. O’Neal, B. Miller, Terry, Iguodala)
Team E: Charlie Villanueva (Nowitzki, McGrady, Redd, Okur, B. Davis)
Team D: Larry Hughes (Garnett, Kidd, Anthony, Boozer, Jamison)
Team C: Troy Murphy (Stoudemire, Bryant, Bibby, Webber, A. Miller)
Team B: Ricky Davis (Marion, Joe Johnson, J. Richardson, Josh Smith, Okafor)
Team A: Richard Hamilton (LeBron, Billups, Odom, Ilgauskas, B. Wallace)

So here we are, six rounds into the draft, which is where we’ll stop.  I’ll do a little team by team analysis and see what we can learn:

Team A, honestly, looks great.  They might be the best team in the leaue right now.  Every statistical category has at least 2 studs in it, there’s not much injury risk, and they’ve got strength at both of the scarcity positions.

Team B went with three question marks in a row - Richardson (injury risk), Smith (can he do it at a 4th round value?) and Okafor (can he do it at all?).  They’ve got no depth at C and Joe Johnson is the only guy who qualifies at PG and the only source of assists.  You’ve got to pair Marion with some strong assist guys - in retrospect he probably should have gone with Bibby in the third over Richardson.

Team C will be looking for size the next few rounds, in fact they already started here with Murphy, and that’s fine.  They’ve got as solid a backcourt as you’ll find, so depth up front will be the focus moving forward.  That way Amare and Webber being healthy is more of a bonus than a necessity.

Team D is also pretty strong right now.  They’ve got some nice balance and they didn’t take a big risk until the 6th round, playing it conservatively and generally taking the best player available.  That strategy seemed to work out pretty well for them.

Team E is not looking too great.  They took high-risk players in the 2nd and 5th rounds, and maybe pulled the trigger too early on Villanueva.  Redd and Okur are good complimentary players but they look a lot better surrounded by sure things, and that’s not the case here.

Team F did a fantastic job of matching up his third and fourth round picks with his top two picks.  Miller is a great value at center if you can make up for his blocks, which Wade and O’Neal do.  Then, with almost no threes out of his first three picks he took a few players who all contribute there with his next three picks.  He, too, didn’t do much risk-taking and came out with a nice team.

Team G did a great job of matching some risks with some safe bets.  You’ve got three sure things in Brand, Carter and Butler, and both Diaw and Felton could perform better than where they were drafted, and if they don’t, it won’t be a disaster.  I think he could have gone with Hamilton in the sixth as another sure thing, but that’s just me.

Team H, like Team G, matched some risks with some sure things, his risks just came a round earlier, in 2 and 3.  I still love the Battier pick even with Bonzi Wells around, and I’m assuming that Ridnour would be replaced by either James or Alston at this point.

Team I might be my second favorite team behind Team A as long as Yao is healthy.  2 good centers, 2 great point guards (with Nelson potentially being a breakout), and two solid-as-they-come guys in the middle of the lineup.

Team J could fall in to the trap of having to deal with some pretty awful centers if they don’t take some mid-level ones pretty quickly.  I like the Morrison pick here as far as value but I think Kaman would have been a much better pickup for this team.

Team K, well, I’ve said my piece about Ray Allen and the FT%.  He’s also got three injury risks in Wallace, Duncan and O’Neal and will really need to find some gems in the late rounds to really compete.

Team L, taking into account that Bogut probably wouldn’t be picked now, is my other favorite team, up there right next to Team I but slightly behind Team A.  I guess there’s just something to be said for picking at the end of the snake, as Teams L and A both are looking great.  Bosh and Marbury are two of my favorite picks in this whole mock, considering where they were picked, Iverson is a stud and David West should be solid this year again. 

So there you have it, the 2006 FBB mock draft.  Can’t wait till next year.

Note – we did this prior to the Bogut injury.  He probably doesn’t go for another few rounds, now.  That’s part of why you want to wait until the last possible moment to do your draft:

Team A: Ben Wallace (LeBron, Billups, Odom, Ilgauskas)
Team B: Emeka Okafor (Marion, Joe Johnson, J. Richardson, Josh Smith)
Team C: Andre Miller (Stoudemire, Bryant, Bibby, Webber)
Team D: Antawn Jamison (Garnett, Kidd, Anthony, Boozer)
Team E: Baron Davis (Nowitzki, McGrady, Redd, Okur)
Team F: Andre Iguodala (Wade, J. O’Neal, Miller, Terry)
Team G: Caron Butler (Brand, V. Carter, Diaw, Felton)
Team H: Shane Battier (Arenas, Kirilenko, Artest, D. Howard)
Team I: Jameer Nelson (Ming, Paul, Lewis, Jefferson)
Team J: Al Harrington (Pierce, Nash, R. Wallace, Camby)
Team K: Shaquille O’Neal (Allen, Duncan, G. Wallace, Hinrich)
Team L: Andrew Bogut (Iverson, Bosh, Marbury, Stojakovic)

I’ll tell you right now, this round is dangerous.  The smart move is undoubtedly to take the sure thing – Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison, Andre Iguodala, Andre Miller, all of those guys are terrific 5th round picks because they will almost certainly return you value equal to what you invest in them.  But then … there are the names.  Shaq.  Ben Wallace.  Baron Davis.  Let’s talk about them.

In order to draft these guys, your team has to be set up for them.  The success of your pick in this scenario has less to do with if the player is worth the pick and more to do with if your team can, well, withstand them.  Let’s look at a situation where it works and one where it doesn’t.  One where it works?  Ben Wallace for Team A.  Here’s why.  One, he’s a second center behind Ilgauskas.  Two, his awful FT% can’t hurt them that much, because they’ll be in the middle of the pack otherwise.  Three, his other big liability, points, is covered by a high-scoring C1 and PG1, and a potential scoring champion.  Finally, his strengths (boards, steals and blocks) could really put this team over the top in all of those categories.  Big Ben fits nicely on Team A.

An example of where it doesn’t work?  Shaq on Team K.  Hey Team K, what are you doing!?  Ray Allen’s second-biggest asset behind his threes is his FT%.  But that’s been thrown out the window.  I don’t care who else you’ve got on your team – if you have Tim Duncan AND Shaq on the same team, and throw in Gerald Wallace, you will be in last place in FT%.  That’s just a fact of life.  By drafting Shaq, Team K has put his team at the bottom of the FT% category and is looking at getting no value from Ray Allen’s 90% FT shooting.

Tomorrow: Round Six.

Last call for good C1’s and PG1’s!

Team L: Peja Stojakovic (Iverson, Bosh, Marbury)
Team K: Kirk Hinrich (Allen, Duncan, G. Wallace)
Team J: Marcus Camby (Pierce, Nash, R. Wallace)
Team I: Richard Jefferson (Ming, Paul, Lewis)
Team H: Dwight Howard (Arenas, Kirilenko, Artest)
Team G: Raymond Felton (Brand, V. Carter, Diaw)
Team F: Jason Terry (Wade, J. O’Neal, Miller)
Team E: Mehmet Okur (Nowitzki, McGrady, Redd)
Team D: Carlos Boozer (Garnett, Kidd, Anthony)
Team C: Chris Webber (Stoudemire, Bryant, Bibby)
Team B: Josh Smith (Marion, Joe Johnson, J. Richardson)
Team A: Zydrunas Ilgauskas (LeBron, Billups, Odom)

The fourth and fifth rounds are my favorite rounds.  You can spread your wings a little.  Got a mid-level sleeper?  Go for it.  Wanna load up with a second center or point guard?  Here’s a great spot to do it and create a real advantage for your team.  Need a little balance for your team?  You can probably take care of that here, too.  The first three rounds you HAVE to play it conservatively.  Here in the fourth you can take your risks, whether it’s banking on a young guy to make a leap like Raymond Felton, or rolling the dice on Chris Webber.  You can also find your position-fillers, like Kirk Hinrich or Zydraunas Ilgauskas, that aren’t reaches but fill those scarcity positions nicely.

There’s another tier drop here, and it is right between Howard and Felton, although you may want to put Camby in that lower tier.  Speaking of which, poor Team J.  They had Ming go right before they picked at 9, then Bosh and Duncan went right before them at 15.  Now they’re stuck having to choose between Camby, Okur and Boozer as their C1 at pick 39, which is just not a pretty position to be in.  Especially with two clearly safer bets in Jefferson and Howard on the board.  They can’t wait until their next pick, 58 overall, to grab their top center!  The pickings at that point could be awfully slim – maybe Shaq, maybe Chris Kaman … it’s just not pretty.  But you can’t blame them for any of their earlier picks – Pierce was a great selection at 9, and the only competition for Nash at 15 was Chris Paul or Andrei Kirilenko, neither of whom are centers.  Sometimes you’re just out of luck, and that means you’re going to get stuck with having to reach for a position.  And who knows?  Maybe Camby will play 65 or 70 games this year, and will be a steal this late.

My favorite teams so far?  L (2 top point guards and possibly the best center this year), and B (if J-Rich is healthy).  Least favorite? Team C.  Pairing Webber with Amare is dangerous, and even Kobe has missed at least 14 games in 5 of the last 8 seasons.

Tomorrow: Round 5.

Here we go with round three.  Previous picks are in parentheses: 

Team A: Lamar Odom (LeBron, Billups)
Team B: Jason Richardson (Marion, Joe Johnson)
Team C: Mike Bibby (Stoudemire, Bryant)
Team D: Carmelo Anthony (Garnett, Kidd)
Team E: Michael Redd (Nowitzki, McGrady)
Team F: Brad Miller (Wade, J. O’Neal)
Team G: Boris Diaw (Brand, V. Carter)
Team H: Ron Artest (Arenas, Kirilenko)
Team I : Rashard Lewis (Ming, Paul)
Team J: Rasheed Wallace (Pierce, Nash)
Team K: Gerald Wallace (Allen, Duncan)
Team L: Stephon Marbury (Iverson, Bosh)

After the horrorfest that was round two in our mock draft, it looks like there are a lot more safe picks to be had here in round three.  I thought I’d discuss the whole best-player-available versus the drafting to fill a need strategy here because it really starts to come into play here in the third and fourth rounds.  This early in the draft, you shouldn’t be in a situation where you have to make a choice between the two.  If you draft smart, you should be able to fill your need without reaching for a pick.  Look at the position split here - we’ve got 2 point guards, 2 shooting guards, 5 small forwards, 2 power forwards and a center (with Diaw also sometimes qualifying at C).  So really, there’s something for everyone here.

Let’s pick an example – let’s look at Team D.  Picking Jason Kidd was a fine selection in the second round, but Kidd can be a major liability in points.  Most second rounders will crack 20 ppg easily, but Kidd will likely struggle to reach 15.  Melo fits here not just because he’s a great scorer but because his weaknesses – blocks, boards, and assists – and covered up nicely by Garnett and Kidd.  Redd would have been another nice choice here, for the same reasons.  But taking someone like Brad Miller or Mike Bibby in this situation just doesn’t make much sense.

Also, the glut of small forwards in this round is due to some good drafting in the second round.  Small forwards don’t really fill a need, they’re the just the best players.  Let’s look at Team K.  After taking Ray Allen in the first, let’s say he went with another guard in the second, like Steve Nash or Chris Paul, rather than Duncan.  Then he would be going into round three absolutely needing a big.    Gerald Wallace, while he provides some big-man stats, is both a major injury risk and doesn’t even qualify at PF.  It’s more likely that Team K would have been forced to reach a little bit for someone like Dwight Howard or Mehmet Okur in this spot because they needed a solid big-man presence, even though a calculated risk like Gerald Wallace is probably a better pick overall.

Not only is there a variety of positions to choose from throughout the round, but there’s a lot of parity amongst these picks.  If there’s a definitive tier drop here, it’s at pick 40, right between Miller and Diaw.  But before and after that it’s pretty muddled.

Tomorrow, Round 4. 

Ah, the mock draft.  Probably my favorite columns to write.  Let’s go over the ground rules:

1. We are drafting for a 12-team league.
2. The mock league has the following lineup: PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, C, C, U, U, with 3 bench spots, no IL.
3. This mock league has the standard 8 categories, we are NOT drafting for turnovers.
4. We take turns drafting, first DM, then me.  This way we alternate picks for each team.  We also give each other input.  These are sort-of consensus picks.
5. We DO take into account team needs.  If a team is short of guards come the fifth, for example, we’ll give preference to a guard even if we may place him lower in our overall rankings.
6. We DO take into account “general opinion” about a player.  For example, if a guy is a generally accepted first round pick, we won’t let him fall to the third round just because we don’t like him.
7. We will only go through six rounds.  After six rounds, doing a mock draft doesn’t make a lot of sense because at that point team needs start to really supersede overall rankings.
So we’ll do the first two rounds today, and then we’ll go a round a day for the rest of the week.  Ready?  Me too:

Round One
Team A: LeBron James
Team B: Shawn Marion
Team C: Kobe Bryant
Team D: Kevin Garnett
Team E: Dirk Nowitzki
Team F: Dwyane Wade
Team G: Elton Brand
Team H: Gilbert Arenas
Team I: Yao Ming
Team J: Paul Pierce
Team K: Ray Allen
Team L: Allen Iverson

OK.  Let’s talk about a couple of things here.  First, the first big tier drop happens right around the sixth pick in the draft.  I’m not ready to put Wade in the same category as the top five guys – in fact, I’ve got the sixth pick in my draft and I’d take Brand before Wade as well.  But a lot of folks seem to think he’s worth a top-five pick so we’ll put him at number six ahead of Brand.  The top five guys could pretty much go anywhere but I think LBJ will go number one in almost all leagues, and Nowitzki probably will be no higher than four. 

The second half of the first round, particularly after Arenas, is filled with guys that I’d feel a lot more comfortable with taking in the second round, and these guys are a serious drop-off from the top eight.  Hopefully these late-round teams will be able to make up for the slack in the second round…

Round Two (Previous picks in parentheses):
Team L: Chris Bosh (Iverson)
Team K: Tim Duncan (Allen)
Team J: Steve Nash (Pierce)
Team I: Chris Paul (Ming)
Team H: Andrei Kirilenko (Arenas)
Team G: Vince Carter (Brand)
Team F: Jermaine O’Neal (Wade)
Team E: Tracy McGrady (Nowitzki)
Team D: Jason Kidd (Garnett)
Team C: Amare Stoudemire (Bryant)
Team B: Joe Johnson (Marion)
Team A: Chauncey Billups (LeBron)

Sometimes you’re better off picking late in the first because you can grab two studs to anchor your team, and that’s what happens here as well.  There’s a big drop-off at pick 16, right after Chris Paul.  The first four guys in this round could all warrant some consideration late in the first, and getting two guys who could be first round picks is always a major bonus.  The meat of this round is filled with big-risk, big-reward guys.  All of the guys from AK-47 through Amare are major injury risks (granted, Kidd is more an “old” risk, but still) but they can’t fall out of the second, with the possible exception of Amare.  All of them are hold-your-breath picks.  But you almost HAVE to make them.  The next tier drop probably comes right at the end of this round, between Johnson and Billups.  I think it’s probably worth considering taking Johnson a little earlier than we have him, but I’d hesitate to pick Billups before someone like T-Mac or Jermaine O’Neal.

As always, comments are welcomed, perhaps more here than elsewhere, because the point of these drafts is to get a good idea of what to expect when your draft day comes around.  Tell us we’re wrong, who you’d take higher or lower, etc.  Round three comes tomorrow.

Yes, I saved the worst for last. Ever since we drew divisions, I was dreading writing up the Blazers. It’s like the Knicks but with even less interesting players. The Blazers were horrific last year and didn’t place a single player in the top 100 on the player rater. There doesn’t seem much hope for things to improve this year, unless Zach Randolph rediscovers his 03-04 form, Brandon Roy is even better than people are hoping he is, Jarrett Jack emerges as a legit starting PG and the team’s combination of young and creaky big men offers some production. Yeah, I’m skeptical too. Some people like to look at bad teams as an opportunity to find fantasy gold, since there will be points scored, so somebody has to score them. Last year’s Blazers were a pretty good example of why that theory doesn’t always work. Nobody on this team should be taken in the first half of your draft (unless you have one looong ass draft) and there are really only a few players that are definitely worth drafting at all.

The Stud: Zach Randolph, PF
Yeah yeah, I know. But who else is it going to be, Sergio Rodriguez? We know all the bad stuff about Randolph – his lack of work ethic, the microfracture knee surgery, the annual summer police investigation, not to mention his lack of help in any category except points and boards. But the fact remains that this is an extremely young team with very few established NBA scorers. Randolph is the only player on the roster to ever average more than 15 ppg in a season in the pros. The Blazers don’t have much choice but to rely on Randolph as their offensive centerpiece. Randolph put up one of the emptiest 18 and 8s you’ll ever see last year, shooting just 44 and 71%, and averaging just 0.8 spg, and 0.2 3pg and bpg. The best hope for improvement is in those percentages, with an outside hope of maybe getting up to 0.5 3pg. Randolph has a good jump shot and after attempting just 16 3s in his career coming into last season, he attempted 55 last year. If he takes that sort of leap again, it could lead to a bit more value. Not to be too bullish on Randolph, but he’s going to come relatively cheap, and if you can get a solid points guy who is likely to be his team’s leading scorer in the 7^th round or so, there’s nothing too wrong with that.

The Support: Brandon Roy, G
We don’t like rookies too much here at FBB. More than that, I, personally, have a particular distaste for them. Most players in the league have skill sets that are so clearly defined that it just doesn’t pay to take a chance on such a complete unknown in the earlier stages of the draft when you know there’s a more reliable option on the board. The early word out of Blazers camp is that Roy will play multiple positions but might come off the bench. Whatever. Like the dysfunctional Blazers actually have any idea how things will play out more than a few weeks into the season. Roy was excellent in the summer league and everyone seems to think he’s capable of coming in and contributing right away for Portland. Roy seems to be popular as high as a fifth round pick. Maybe he’ll live up to that, but when guys such as Caron Butler, Andre Igoudala or Andre Miller are likely to be there at the same spot, is that really a risk worth taking?

The Supporting Support: Jarrett Jack, PG
Last year the Blazers had Jack, Steve Blake and Sebastian Telfair sharing duties at PG, giving each of them a bit of value at different points in the season, but making for a pretty convoluted situation. They made things a lot clearer this offseason, shipping Blake to Milwaukee and Telfair to Portland. It mostly makes sense, as they were able to get the #7 pick for Telfair, were able to sell high on Blake and still have Jack under a cheap contract for three seasons. Jack had to play shooting guard for much of last year, so there’s reason to expect an improvement in his pedestrian assist rate. But it’s worth remembering that this is the Blazers – the only way you get an assist is if somebody makes a basket, and that won’t happen too often. Jack didn’t show much of a knack for 3s or steals last year, so that means we’re looking at a point guard who might be below average in all three PG categories. Still, he’s the starter, so that makes him worth watching and worth a very late pick.

The Sleeper: Joel Przybilla, C
There seems to be a bit of a logjam in the middle for the Blazers, with Przybilla, Jamaal Magloire and LaMarcus Aldridge all around. You can probably forget about Aldridge for the time being, so that leave Przybilla and Magloire. Magloire is trade bait who won’t be with the team next season, and possibly earlier than that. Przybilla just signed a five-year deal with the Blazers. This doesn’t necessarily mean Przybilla will dominate the PT, but we’d like to think that he’ll at least see the majority of the minutes. He doesn’t need to see much more than 30 minutes to be a decent second center. He hasn’t average even 25 mpg in each of the last two seasons, but that was enough time to average at least 7 boards and 2 blocks per game. Even while missing 26 games last season, Przybilla blocked the 15^th most shots in the league. Not bad. He presents more upside than Magloire, so he’s the one worth taking a flyer on.

The Slacker: Darius Miles, SF
We’ve all heard the term “locker room cancer,” but is there such thing as a fantasy cancer? Of course not, but Miles may as well be. One of those players that’s perennially disappointing and frustrating and who makes life miserable for his owners. Throw him in there with the Marko Jarics and Eddie Griffins of the world. Miles was just about as good as he’s ever been last year, and it was still good for just #144 on the average player rater. Then take into account that he missed half the season and still isn’t quite ready … what’s the point? Yes, if healthy he has a chance to be one of the featured scorers on the team. So what? His free throw shooting has deteriorated enough that he’ll do enough harm there to offset whatever modest gains he offers in steals or blocks. Don’t do it.

Double Dribbles: It’s gone downhill fast for Jamaal Magloire. Just a couple of seasons ago he was an all-star who was looking like a consistent 15/10 guy. Now he’s another free throw killer with an extremely limited offensive palette. He remains a top rebounder, but he truly offers nothing else at this point … Raef LaFrentz is running on fumes these days. He’s not capable of mixing it up inside anymore, which means he’s shooting more 3s than ever, but those days of 2+ bpg are long, long gone … Our old buddy Juan Dixon had a sparkling month of January in which he averaged 18.7/2.4/3.5 with 1.3 3s and 1.5 steals on 50% shooting. Other than that he was thoroughly mediocre. His big problem is that he just misses shots. He’s gotten a bit better, setting a new career high with 43.5% last year, but he’s just not suited for a starting role … We can’t say that with certainty about Martell Webster, so the Blazers might see for themselves this year. The rookie had his moments last year and could have been the sleeper instead of Jack, but inconsistency seems likely for the second-year player who won’t turn 20 until December. He has the makings of a future top three-point shooter if things go well … Don’t forget that Dan Dickau averaged 13.2/2.7/5.2 with 1.3 3s just a couple years ago for the Hornets. Last year was basically a lost season for him, so we’ll see if he can regain that form and find any meaningful minutes behind Jack … Travis Outlaw didn’t show much at all, regressing almost across the board in his third season as he saw a bit more playing time. Not a good sign.

The Zen Master worked his magic, leading this team that had Kobe Bryant, Lamar Odom and, uh, did I mention they had Kobe Bryant? Well, Mamba led the Lakers back to the playoffs but they ended up choking against the Phoenix Suns in the first round, ending a positive season on a very serious down note. Last year’s Lakers were a pretty good example of how a team will score a certain number of points, so somebody will end up having some value. We all knew that Kobe would be among the elite, that Odom would be a not-quite-superstar and that Kwame Brown would suck it hard. Other than that, we really weren’t sure. After a preseason in which people thought that Aaron McKie – Aaron McKie! – might end up as the team’s starting PG, Smush Parker emerged as an unlikely fantasy asset. Not much has changed this year, save the addition for Vladimir Radmanovic, who might finally get that starting spot he’s long desired, which might make him even more of a fantasy tease. Still, everybody knows this is Kobe’s show and if last season was any indication, there’s no telling what he might do.

The Stud: Kobe Bryant, SG
It’s not like we didn’t know that he had it in him. Bryant came through with the third-highest non-Wilt Chamberlain scoring season in the history of the league, his 35.4 ppg behind only MJ’s 37.1 in 86-87 and Rick Barry’s 35.6 back in 66-67. The highlight was, of course, his 81-point outburst against the Raptors. Not to be a shill for the NBA full court package, but I actually watched that happen live. It was pretty great. Besides the career-high in points, Kobe also set a career-high with 2.3 3pg, 10.2 FTA (while shooting an awesome 85%), and his 1.8 spg was the second best mark of his career. Sure, his boards and assists dipped, but he also knocked one whole turnover off from 05-06 and managed to shoot a very respectable 45% while taking a ridiculous 27 shots per game. After missing big chunks of time in each of the previous two seasons, it was a perfect season of health for Bryant, as his only missed games came after he gave a Macho Man-worthy elbow to Mike Miller. It all added up to the second-best fantasy season in the league. So what can he do for an encore? We all know Kobe is one of the most gifted scorers in the history of the league, but expecting him to average 35 ppg might be asking a bit much. His offseason knee surgery wasn’t of the dreaded microfracture variety, but it’s at least a small concern. We just ran our draft order in my league and I drew the fourth pick, so I’ll be paying close attention to Kobe until draft day. Assuming that LeBron, Marion and Garnett go as the top three, that leaves Kobe and Dirk Nowitzki as the two most logical options at the #4 spot. I’m torn. Thoughts?

The Support: Lamar Odom, F
He was the #2 option on his team, played 80 games and averaged 40 mpg in those contests. So while you may look at his stat line and see slight drops in points, rebounds and blocks, it was still a very productive season for Odom. This isn’t to say he isn’t a frustrating player to own. You probably won’t find another player taken in the first three rounds who had more than 20 games in which he didn’t even take 10 shots. But that’s just how Odom operates, so accept it. He was just outside the top 20 in total assists, a great competitive advantage for someone who qualifies at PF, especially since he was still near the top in boards. The knowledge that just one sweet, sweet bong hit could knock him out for the season is still a bit scary, but we’d like to think that Odom has matured, especially in the wake of his tragic offseason. He finished 20/24 on the player rater – probably considerably lower in leagues that count turnovers – but you probably don’t want him as your second best player. He does make a pretty excellent third best player, though, as FT% is really his only weakness, as you can pretty much count on him for somewhere around 15/10/5 with around 1 each in 3s, steals and blocks. He’s earned Phil Jackson’s trust and should continue to see tons of minutes, and you know we love that.

The Supporting Support: Vladimir Radmanovic, PF
It’s mostly for lack of a better alternative, really. Everyone’s always enamored with a big man who can hit 3s, but that only works if the 3s come with the usual big man stats. Otherwise it’s just trading one strength for another weakness. Radmanovic has a sweet stroke but is a terrible percentage shooter, doesn’t grab many boards or block many shots. So yeah, he’ll hit a couple of 3s per game, but he acts just like any of a number swingmen. It looks like Radmanovic will be the starting SF for the Lakers, but this is a guy who has always struggled to reach 30 mpg and I don’t really see that changing this year, especially with the Lakers best depth at this position with Luke Walton and Brian Cook. He is strictly a three-point specialist, and if you spend a late-round pick on him strictly for that purpose, fine. But if you’re waiting for some sort of Dirk Nowitzki breakout, well, please stop.

The Sleeper: Smush Parker, PG
It’s hard to call a guy who finished last season at #60 on the player rater a sleeper, but I’ve got a feeling that people are still skeptical of Parker. He’s not your typical starting PG, but that’s not really necessary on Phil and Kobe’s Lakers. Everyone kept waiting for him to drop off as the year went on, but he remained a remarkably consistent fantasy contributor throughout the season, averaging between 11 and 12 points in every month. Not many starting PGs will average fewer assists than Parker, but he makes up for it with solid numbers in 3s and steals. There’s nobody on the Lakers roster who seems likely to displace Parker as the starter – not rookie Jordan Farmar, not Euro League signee Shammond Williams, not noted bricklayer Sasha Vujacic. Parker doesn’t need to show any real improvement to remain a solid option, and it’s probable that he won’t. Still, it’s nice to have someone who will get you 1.5 3s and 1.5 steals, especially when you can probably grab them late in the draft. Don’t reach for Smush, but there’s little chance of you needing to do so. Grab him as a PG3 or for one of your utility slots and you should be fine.

The Slacker: Kwame Brown, FC
Oh, like it was going to be anyone else. Brown actually found a decent little niche for himself in Los Angeles by the end of the year. And that was as someone who crashed the boards, didn’t take many shots that weren’t layups, missed tons of free throws and had pure stone hands. After five seasons in the league it’s time to stop waiting for Brown to become any sort of offensive force. It’s just not happening. He’s shown very little skill on the offensive end, since he has those terrible hands and tends to travel or get called for charging every other time he tries to back someone down. He may beat out Chris Mihm for the starting center spot, but he’s still not worth starting since he has never shown that he can block shots. He averaged just 0.6 bpg while receiving 27.5 mpg last year, absolutely terrible for a center, especially one contributes nowhere else. The bottom line is that he’s simply not worth drafting.

Double Dribbles: Chris Mihm is one of those guys that’s often on the center waiver wire carousel, capable of putting up 12 and 7 with 1.5 blocks when things are going well. He’s still not fully recovered from the ankle injury that derailed his season last year, and he’ll have to show that he is before he’s worth considering … Luke Walton’s a good guy to have on your team in real life, as he does those “things that don’t show up in the box score.” Unfortunately, us fantasy folks only care about the things that show up in the box score … Brian Cook is like VladRad without the bushels of 3s, just a handful of 3s. Good guy to bring off the bench, but not your fantasy bench … Maurice Evans can put the ball in the bucket, and should Kobe Bryant go down with an injury at some point, he might be able to put up some decent numbers.

This is going to be an interesting team.  Their starting lineup consists of two potential breakouts, a broken down ex-star, and two role players.  Their bench has the biggest draft flop since 2001, the most disappointing Puerto Rican since Peter John Ramos, and JJ Redick.  This season could really go in about 50 different ways, and it’s tough to say which way is most likely.  So much of their wing production depends on the health of Grant Hill, which is obviously completely unpredictable, and so much of their other production depends on the development of their youngsters.  There are definitely some gems to be unearthed if you can guess correctly.  Let’s see if we can help:

The Stud: Dwight Howard, PF
It’s tough for a second-year guy to be the second-leading rebounder in the league and still be somewhat disappointing, but that might have been the case for Howard last year.  He didn’t score much more than he had his rookie year, saw a dip in blocks, and saw a horrendous fall in FT%.  In fact, he was only a “plus” on the player rater in three categories – boards, blocks, and FG%.  Still, when you excel in a category as much as Howard did in boards, you’re going to be a pretty good performer, and that was the case as he came in at 39/47 on the total/average player rater.  You’ve gotta think that Howard will improve his game this year.  It’s his third year, and he’s still only 20 years old, so he’s got a nice chance to really be a breakout player this season. If you can break out after already being a top-50 guy, the sky is the limit.  He’s also pretty low-risk.  You can go ahead and take him in the third round and feel pretty good about it.

The Support: Jameer Nelson, PG
What’s not to like?  Nelson is going to be the starting PG for the Magic and should see around 30 mpg.  At an absolute minimum, he’s going to put up something close to 15 and 5 with a steal, a three, and nice FG% for a PG.  It’s not unreasonable to think that he could actually end up closer to 18 and 7 with 1.5 threes and steals.  Nelson is an injury risk, but it’s too early in his career for that to be a trend.  He doesn’t have the name that other mid-round point guards have, like Tony Parker or Mike James, but he should be more valuable for your fantasy team, and that’s all that matters.  He’s a top PG2, and realistically could be a passable PG1.

The Supporting Support: Grant Hill, SF
He’s certainly not a sleeper, and you can’t really expect much of anything out of him so he can’t be a slacker, but Hill should be drafted.  When he’s healthy (quit your laughing), Hill still has plenty of value.  In the final few rounds, when you’re drafting guys that you could very well be dropping in a week, why not draft Hill?  Play him until he hurts himself, then drop him.  If you have a short leash and don’t let yourself get bogged down in Hill’s injury problems, and if you can get him late enough in the draft, he can be a nice addition to your squad.

The Sleeper: JJ Redick
Here’s what’s working in J.J.’s favor: Grant Hill is expected to be the starting shooting guard for the Magic.  Grant Hill will inevitably get hurt.  When that happens, the spot will be Redick’s to lose.  Even without that happening, I think Hill will take away a significant chunk of Hedo Turkolgu’s minutes at SF, opening up more time for Redick.  The other thing going for Redick is that his perceived value is really low right now, based on his bad back, so you’ll be able to get him late enough that you won’t have to pass up good talent for him.  With minutes, he should contribute in points, threes, and FT%, but you may not get much else.  Still, he’s got just as good a chance of succeeding as the next guy on this list – but you will probably be able to get him much later.

The Slacker:  Darko Milicic, FC
I had Darko pegged as my sleeper here for awhile, but now I’m reversing course, flip flopping, losing my will, whatever.  For sure, Milcic looks like a blocks machine, but where else will his value come from?  He doesn’t appear to be a starter, sitting behind Tony Battie, and he will likely struggle to see much more than the 20 mpg he got last year.  I’m not suggesting that Milicic shouldn’t be drafted or that he won’t have any value this year.  He could very well end up being a top-60 player when it’s all over.  Putting him as the slacker is more of a cautionary move.  You should not be relying on Darko as even a C2 unless you’ve got a very strong backup for him.  He’s just a HUGE risk, and being in the position of having to scour the wires for a center in mid-December is just not a good spot to be in.  I’d take him as a third center, and nothing more.

Double Dribbles:  Why Tony Battie is starting for this team, I have no idea.  He’s like PJ Brown only worse at everything, if that makes any sense.  He’s got no value … You know that whole “VoRP” stat – Value over Replacement Player?  I’ve always imagined the “replacement player” to be a guy like Hedo Turkoglu.  He’s had some decent value over the past few years and should continue to be a fine mid-late round pick as roster filler, but he’s only a plus in two stats, threes and FT%.  He may see a cut in minutes depending on (again) Grant Hill’s health, but should be similar to what he’s been lately … Keyon Dooling and Trevor Ariza are both interesting players but neither will see the minutes they need to have value.