The Bucks tried their best to slip out of the Eastern Conference playoffs last year, and nearly pulled it off, losing 6 of their last 9 games and finishing at 40-42.  They were the only sub-.500 team in the playoffs, didn’t belong, and graciously bowed out to the Pistons in five games.  This year, they’ve got plenty of reason for hope.  Their retooled roster features a front line that consists of arguably the two best non-CP3 rookies of last year.  They’ve got one of the best pure shooters in the game, and they’ve got a nice cast of role players to fill out the roster.  And, of course, they’ve got FBB favorite Steve Blake, which is never a bad thing.  Ever.  Let’s get on with it:

The Stud: Michael Redd, GF
Redd just keeps on impressing.  Last year he again improved his ppg, which he’s done every single season so far.  He also set a career-high in FT%, and tied a career-high in steals.  He was a spectacular 18/22 on the total/average player rater, played in 80 games, saw 39 minutes, and was everything his owners could have possibly hoped for.  Still, for some reason I’m not convinced he’s a second round pick, and I’m not sure exactly why.  I just look at all the categories that he won’t help in – FG%, boards, assists, and blocks – that’s a lot of weaknesses for your second-best player.  I also am skeptical that he will continue to improve – I’d actually be surprised if he matches all of his numbers from last year, particularly his steals and his threes.  I will say that I was pretty surprised to see Redd as a GF this year, I always thought he was a pure SG, so that bumps up his value a little just because of roster flexibility.  But I can’t advocate playing a guy who gets under 5 boards and virtually no blocks as a forward.  Redd is a top SG though, for sure, and is a great third-round selection.

The Support: Charlie Villanueva, F
Fantasy owners had a love-hate relationship with Villanueva last year.  He started off strong, with 11/6 and strong supplementary stats in November, but then saw his minutes and overall numbers decline over the next two months.  After the All-Star break, though, he was terrific.  He took advantage of being on a decimated Raptors roster and saw 35 mpg, putting up 14/8 with 1.1 threes, .8 steals and .8 blocks, and basically helping out everywhere.  The end result looked pretty good, but the problem with Villanueva was he was so off-and-on.  For example, his 48-point effort against these very Milwaukee Bucks in March was preceded by two 6-point games, and he was likely on a lot of benches when he exploded.  Some of this might be explained by the fact that he had to play for Sam Mitchell – some of it might be explained simply by the fact that he was a rookie.  Regardless, he’ll be counted on to be the starting PF on the Bucks for the present and the future, and should see at least 30 mpg in this role.  Owners will have to hope he shows some consistency, but he’s a fine mid-late round pick this year.

The Supporting Support: Bobby Simmons, GF
I was already to talk about what a terrible year Simmons had, but you know something?  It really wasn’t too bad after all.  He really struggled with both his game and his health early on, but picked it up after the new year and ended up with respectable if disappointing overall numbers.  He saw drops just about across the board except for in one area – three pointers.  All of a sudden Simmons doubled his output behind the arc to 1.5 3’s per game, and that’s a huge bonus if he keeps it up.  I’d look for Simmons – who is pretty much the only 3 on the team right now – to see at least 35 mpg, and return to his high expectations set with the Clippers two years ago, and actually exceed them if he keeps shooting threes.  He is actually a great value if you can get him in the middle rounds, which you should be able to do.

The Sleeper: Mo Williams, PG
Let’s do a Player A/Player B with two point guards:

Player A: 17.1/3.8 with 2.1 threes and 1.3 steals, 47/80 percentages, 35mpg.
Player B: 14.7/4.2 with 1.5 threes and 1.1 steals, 45/85 percentages, 29.7 mpg.

Pretty similar, right?  The first one is Jason Terry, who is likely going to be taken in the 4th round or so in your draft.  The second is Williams before he hurt his ankle last year.  He’ll be available well after the fourth round.  One of the big concerns for Williams is supposedly going to be his playing time, but I’m not buying it.  Listen, as much as we like Steve Blake, he is just not going to see the same minutes that TJ Ford saw last year.  And Charlie Bell is a nice guy but he’s also going to be backing up Michael Redd at the 2.  Williams has been promised the starting gig and should see close to 35 mpg.  Keep an eye on how things develop in camp, but as long as he holds on to that spot, he’s a fantastic sleeper this year.

The Slacker: Andrew Bogut, C
Here’s the problem with Bogut – I’m just not convinced he’s ready to make the leap this year.  He’s no better than a third or fourth option on offense at best, and he doesn’t do enough outside of that to warrant a high pick.  Let’s say he sees maybe 5 or 6 more mpg this year, up to 34 or so.  And let’s give him the benefit of the doubt that he’ll do some improving on his per-minute averages as well.  Let’s say he gets maybe a 25% bump on all his stats across the board.  That puts him around 12.5 points, 9 boards, 1 block, .8 steals.  Is that really all that good?  It’s kinda like Chris Kaman last year, only with fewer blocks (and a much worse FT%).  Bogut is worth drafting for sure, and will have his moments, but I don’t think he’s anywhere near a C1 yet.

Double Dribbles: Ruben Patterson will be a solid reserve and should something happen to the starting wingmen he should have value if only for his steals, but he’s not draftable at this point … Blake will need 35 mpg in order to have any value.  Williams does have a history of injuries, so it’s not out of the realm of possibilities, but again, he’s not draftable … Dan Gadzuric had a down year last year, but he’s still carved out a nice role for himself as a shot-blocking backup center.  He doesn’t belong on a roster though … Brian Skinner and Ha-Seung Jin had no value last year backing up Theo Ratliff and Joel Przybilla, so there’s not reason to think they’ll have value backing up Bogut and Gadzuric … I’m not sure where exactly Charlie Bell came from or why people think he’ll take minutes away from Mo Williams this year.  He’s an 11th man on this team and nothing more, in all likelihood.

It wasn’t a pretty season for the Raptors, as the team never recovered from a 1-15 start, but it wasn’t a total loss from a fantasy perspective. Sam Mitchell couldn’t get his guys to play defense and they stopped trying toward the end of the season, and the Raptors ended up as the fourth highest scoring team in the league. That made unlikely fantasy stars out of perennial waiver wire bait such as Mike James and Morris Peterson, rookie Charlie Villanueva, and it helped Chris Bosh rise to the upper echelon of fantasy stars. With former Suns mastermind Bryan Colangelo on board as the new GM, expect more offensive fireworks. This team has few established NBA players outside of Bosh and Peterson, so expect those two to continue to shoulder the load, and look for some others, such as Fred Jones, Anthony Parker or Andrea Bargnani, to emerge as the season progresses.

The Stud: Chris Bosh, FC
Last preseason I was skeptical that Bosh would make the leap to superstar in just his third season. I suspected it would take one more year for him to reach level. I was wrong. Bosh turned in a fabulous campaign that was marred only by a thumb injury that ended his season 12 games early. That’s an injury that shouldn’t linger – the Raptors were basically playing it safe with their franchise player – so there’s really nothing not to live – no, nothing not to love about Bosh going into this year. He’s drastically improved in each of his three seasons, notching huge gains in FG% and scoring rates, and he’s young enough to keep getting better. He’s the rare center-eligible player who is clearly his team’s top scoring option (and makes 80% of his free throws). He plays for a high scoring team that is likely to run even more this year. Besides that thumb injury he’s proven to be very durable. If you’re looking for weaknesses, it would be nice if he blocked more shots and could average 10 boards per game consistently, but that’s nitpicking. Bosh is no longer a superstar in the making – he is a superstar. Like the player he’s long been compared to, Kevin Garnett, he won’t pour in 40 points with regularity like other top picks, but at just 22 years old he’s already just about as consistent as they come. There’s not much difference between Bosh and Yao. We’d still lean towards taking Yao first, but Bosh should be gone within the first 15 picks of your draft.

The Support: Morris Peterson, GF
Just when we all gave up on MoPete, he comes through with a stellar season that saw him finish 41/59 on the player rater. Until last year Peterson’s durability was his strongest asset. Playing in 82 games helped him finish the year with a respectable rank on the player rater, but that didn’t always mean he was worth having in your lineup on a day-to-day basis. That changed last year, especially after the all-star break when the Raptors shortened their rotation, gave up playing defense and engaged in shootouts every night. Peterson averaged a staggering 43.1 mpg in 29 post-ASB games last year. Even guys like Jared Jeffries, Quinton Ross and Jason Collins would have value with that many minutes. OK, not Jason Collins. MoPete averaged 20.7/4.5/2.8 with 2.5 3s and 1.3 steals in those contests, as he and Mike James just went crazy, especially with Bosh missing those last dozen games. Look closely, though, and not much changed at all in Peterson’s game, except he launched more 3s. All of his percentages and rates were right around his career norms. It’s all about getting that bump from 30.6 mpg to 38.3 mpg. Hey, have we ever mentioned how minutes is the most important stat in fantasy basketball? Oh, we mention it all the time? Well, here’s why. Peterson enters the season as Toronto’s clear #2 scoring option and it’s scary to say this, but he makes a very solid mid-round selection.

The Supporting Support: T.J. Ford, PG
Ford got off to an extremely quick start last year, winning player of the week honors early on, but before a very strong finish he was struggling to even offer value as a PG3. But let’s not be too negative – it was great to see Ford back and fairly effective after missing an entire year. He improved his shooting from 38% to 42%, showed a much better knack for getting the ball in the basket and even connected on 35 3s after hitting only 5 in his rookie season. But his assist rate plummeted from 9.7 p40 to 7.4 p40, his steals remained average for his position and he still turned the ball over quite a bit. The Raptors gave up a possible all-star to get Ford, so expect him to get every chance to show he was worth it, which could help his value. He’s a worthy starter in almost all leagues, we just don’t particularly like PGs who aren’t especially helpful in two of the three main PG categories.

The Sleeper: Jose Calderon, PG
We’re still not ready to take the injury-risk tag off Ford, so that means Calderon has some nice sleeper value, as he would step in as the starting PG should Ford go down. The two are actually very similar players for fantasy purposes – point guards who don’t really shoot 3s, are merely average in steals, but can rack up the assists when things are going well. Calderon had a slightly better assist rate than Ford last year, while turning the ball over less frequently. He didn’t show much scoring ability, and doesn’t seem likely to be very good in any category other than assists. But you know that if a PG gets 35 mpg he’s going to have some value, so that’s why Calderon is worth watching. We expect him to make some appearances in As the Point Guard Turns this season.

The Slacker: Rasho Nesterovic, C
Another one of those guys who someone will draft in the very late rounds because they need a center and they see that Nesterovic had the most blocks of any of the remaining centers left, so why not? Here’s why not – he stinks. Cross out that 02-03 season with the Wolves when he averaged 11.2 and 6.6 with 1.5 blocks on 53% shooting. He got his $42 million after that, he never needs to do that again, so he definitely won’t. Nesterovic is a solid shot blocker and rebounder, and should be able to give the Raptors 20 or so decent minutes in the middle, but he’s very unlikely to be worthy of a starting slot in fantasy leagues, even if he’s the starter. You can – and should – do much better for your C2 slot. If you draft Nesterovic there, expect to stay very busy on the waiver wire all year.

Double Dribbles: Fred Jones isn’t anything special, but he can put up numbers when given the minutes. Which makes him similar to about 87% of other swingmen in the NBA, but still. He stepped up for the Pacers in the Malice the Palace fallout, averaging 16.1 ppg in nine contests he started after the brawl. He might very well get the chance to see 30 mpg with the Raptors, which would give him borderline fantasy value … John Hollinger expects big things from #1 pick Andrea Bargnani, therefore we expect big things from him. Just not right away. Andrew Bogut was the previous #1 pick, and he was thought to be as well-polished as could be, and he checked in at #104 on the player rater last year. So temper your expectations, at least early on, but Bargnani … We won’t pretend to know much about Anthony Parker, but he might get an opportunity to battle Fred Jones for serious minutes. We just worry that he’ll have a tough time adjusting to the NBA like another former Maccabi Tel Aviv star, Sarunas Jasikevicius … Darrick Martin is the brother of a former intern of mine (yes, I have interns!). She gets free tickets to lots of games. That makes me jealous. That is all. What, you weren’t expecting me to say anything about Martin having any fantasy value, were you?

You know, it’s pretty tough to believe that the Pacers managed to win 41 games last year, even in the weak Eastern Conference.  Look at their starting five on their Depth Chart going into the year: Jamaal Tinsley (out half the year, ineffective the rest), Jermaine O’Neal (missed 30 games), Jeff Foster (out 19 games), Ron Artest (missed 24 of 42 games before being dealt), and Stephen Jackson (shoots 41% from the floor and is a jerk).  Even their bench was riddled with injuries - Freddie Jones, Austin Croshere, David Harrison, and Scott Pollard all missed significant time.  Maybe we misunderestimated Peja Stojakovic after all.  Really, though, the Pacers were a pretty deep team that was well-coached, and that doesn’t change this year – while Peja, Jones, Croshere and Anthony Johnson all left, they brought in Al Harrington, Marquis Daniels, Darrell Armstrong, Orien Greene, Shawne Williams, James White, Rawle Marshall, Josh Powell … you get the picture.  There are a ton of players on this team.  Which ones will see the minutes?  With this team’s injury history, everyone’s got a chance at value at some point this year …

The Stud: Jermaine O’Neal, FC
The “other” O’Neal had a tough time staying healthy for the second year in a row.  This is a big concern for a guy who has had trouble lately maintaining his value as a second round pick.  On the average player rater he came in at a disappointing 28.  But here’s the thing with O’Neal – he gets most of his value from being a real “plus” guy at center.  There aren’t too many of them.  As an added bonus, he won’t murder you at FT% like a lot of top centers will.  He might not be strong there, but he’s no Tim Duncan either.  Plus, he’ll likely be the starting C for the Pacers, meaning more play inside, meaning a higher FG% and hopefully a return to double-digit rebounds.  O’Neal is going to be taken in the mid-late second round mostly because he’s a center, and you know what?  That’s fine by me.  As much as you want the best player available, coming out of the first two rounds without a strong C is perhaps a concern.  We’ll talk about this more later in the month when we go over our tiers.

The Support: Al Harrington, F
No sir, I don’t like it.  If the “slacker” category hadn’t already been reserved on the Pacers like 4 months ago, Harrington would be in it.  Harrington absolutely maxed out his fantasy potential on the Hawks, where he was the number clear 1A to Joe Johnson’s 1, saw about 37 mpg, and was given every chance to be a star.  It just didn’t happen.  Now he’s got a fat new contract, but he’s also got a lot more competition for shots and playing time.  From a fantasy standpoint, he’s no great shakes – he was in the mid-70’s on the average player rater last year, is a pretty awful FT shooter, and doesn’t block shots.  Throw in the probable drop in PT Harrington is likely to see and the fewer shots, and Big Al may be looking at a triple-digit number on the average player rater this year.  I wouldn’t consider him before the 6th round.

The Supporting Support: Stephen Jackson, GF
This team has more wings than … a bunch of pigeons?  A pilot?  The Hooters Gourmet Chicken Wing Dinner?  Whatever.  The point is, there are about 8 guys on this team who play the 2 or 3 spots.  Jackson, however, is the incumbent, so it’s his spot to lose.  He doesn’t shoot very well, but he’s a nice contributor in both threes and steals, and is a decent pick once you’re looking to fill out your starters, in the eighth or ninth rounds.  I think he’ll contribute as much or maybe even more than Al Harrington this year, and if you can get him three rounds (or more) after Harrington’s gone, good for you.

The Sleeper: Danny Granger, SF
The Lone Granger (eh? eh?) has all the makings of a nice fantasy sleeper.  He contributes a little bit everywhere, saw limited minutes last year, and is probably going to be thrown into the starting lineup this time around.  Project his numbers out to 35 mpg and he’ll give you 11/7 with 1.2 blocks, 1.1 steals, and 0.6 threes.  The question will be if he actually gets to 35 mpg with such a crowded roster.  Still, he’s had a year to improve his game at might be able to put up numbers like that with only 28-30 minutes.  If he lasts into the late rounds, and you can get him on your bench, by all means do it.

The Slacker: Jamaal Tinsley, PG
Like it could be anyone else.  Tinsley is like Baron Davis without the talent.  He’s a consistent threat to miss thirty games.  He is horrific both from the field and from the stripe.  The PG spot is just as crowded as everywhere else on the Pacers, as Darrell Armstrong, Sarunas Jasikevicius and even Orien Greene are there to pick up Tinsley’s slack.  Tinsley has been a complete bear to deal with from a fantasy perspective for three years running, and I’m sure I don’t have to remind you of our saying about getting fooled.  Don’t let it happen again.

Double Dribbles: New uniform, but the same story for Marquis Daniels – he’ll work hard to take away fantasy value from guys like Granger and Jackson while not doing enough himself to warrant a roster spot … Jeff Foster is a great rebounder but does absolutely nothing else for your team.  He’s not worth drafting unless you’re totally desperate for rebounds at the end of the draft … Darrell Armstrong was added for his “veteran leadership,” which unfortunately is not a fantasy category … Sarunas Jasikevicius really struggled last year – he’s just not a true PG, and he doesn’t have the size to play the 2 guard.  That doesn’t mean I won’t be rooting for him, though…

Well that was a disaster, huh? There’s really not much more that can be said about the Knicks 05-06 campaign. I sure as hell don’t want to read anymore about it and so I’ll just assume you feel the same way. Instead, we’ll look forward to what might be an even more disastrous 06-07 campaign. Isiah Thomas inherits the mess he created, and we’ll see what he can do with it. There’s plenty of talent here, there’s just not much talent that seems to mesh too well. The Knicks were a fantasy wasteland last year, as their highest ranked player was Jamal Crawford at #74. Stephon Marbury was next at #114 (not counting Steve Francis), which means that the Knicks provided just two players worthy of starting in your normal 12-team league. Will it be different this year? You’d have to think at least a little. Thomas brought these players in so he must have some idea how he wants to utilize them. Right? Hmm, maybe not. At the very least, the Knicks might offer some value on draft day. Most people will have such horrible memories of last year that the players will keep slipping. That still might not give them any value, but at least you won’t get burned by wasting an early pick.

The Stud: Stephon Marbury, PG
There’s no better example of what a disruptive force Larry Brown was than to just look at Marbury’s season. Marbury had been the perfect picture of fantasy consistency over the previous eight seasons, averaging between 19.8 and 23.9 ppg and 7.6 and 9.3 apg each year. It didn’t matter if he was in New Jersey, Phoenix or New York, the numbers were there. I assumed that would be the case again last season, the Brown would realize Marbury was his best player and let him do his thing. Didn’t quite work out that way. Those who spend a second round pick on Marbury counting on his usual numbers instead got an injury-plagued season in which he put up his worst stats since his 96-97 rookie season in Minnesota. The big question is whether Mabrury can regain his past form this season under Thomas, and there’s every reason to expect that he will. Out of all of the moves Thomas as made, bringing Marbury in to be the team’s leader is still the biggest one. Before the all-star break Marbury was doing pretty well until injuries and the absolute mess with the team derailed everything. The 18.2/6.9/3.3 pre-ASB line still is below his recent norms, but just barely. There is a crowded backcourt, but Marbury is the one guy that should be safe when it comes to minutes. Like Baron Davis, he’s another player that is going to come at a discount for the first time in a while. His draft position in my last four drafts: 18, 14, 15, 27. He will not be going that early this year, that’s for sure. Chances are he will last until at least the end of the third round and into the fourth round. He makes a pretty attractive risk around there.

The Support: Jamal Crawford, SG
Crawford has turned into a pretty consistent player but one who will never be too valuable thanks to his truly horrendous shooting. His 41.6% last year raised his career average to just over 40%, which is awful no matter what position you play. He predictably cut down on his 3PA under Larry Brown last year, his attempts dropping in half from 7.3 per game in 04-05 to 3.7 per game last year. With Isiah at the helm you can expect that number to go up, and he did have two straight seasons averaging 2+ 3pg in 03-04 and 04-05. That gives anyone value. Steve Francis and Nate Robinson are around to make the PT situation cloudy, but Crawford was impressive enough at the end of the season last year to earn the benefit of the doubt going into this year. In fact, he was borderline dominant in the season’s last month, going for 22.2/3.7/5.7 with 1.6 3s and 2.4 steals. He doesn’t have much upside, but usually seems to get his numbers, making him a decent later pick for a team that needs 3s.

The Supporting Support: Channing Frye, FC
The most frustrating aspect of the Larry Brown Era, er, Larry Brown Year, was the complete lack of logic when it came to who got PT, and Frye was jerked around more than anyone. He starts three games at the end of November, is good for 18 and 7 on 50% shooting, then he’s back on the bench for four games. Then after a 6-point, 6-rebound game in which he saw just 17 minutes, he was back in the starting lineup for six games. Then he was yanked and saw just 10 minutes the next game. Then he played 36 minutes off the bench next game. And so on. The knee injury that ended Frye’s season is certainly something to worry about and monitor in the preseason, but assuming everything checks out, he slots as the starting PF. With the release of Mo Taylor, Malik Rose is the only true PF left on the roster, although “Fuckin’” Jared Jeffries (that’s the nickname I gave him over the past few seasons – we’re very happy to see him go, needless to say) could slot in there if necessary. So Frye could see plenty of minutes, and he proved last year that he can put up serious numbers with those minutes. Frye’s a bit of a chucker, averaging 16.3 FGA p40 in his rookie year. By comparison, Crawford – who has a bit of a reputation as a gunner – averaged just 13.8 FGA p40 last season. His shot-blocking skills are still a work in progress, but Frye could be a serious points-boards-FG% asset if the minutes are there.

The Sleeper: Steve Francis, PG
Hey, any time you can get a guy who was a consensus second/third round pick for the last five years as a late-round flyer, it’s worth a shot. Sure, Francis has long been overrated and his fantasy value was due to being the default #1 option on his team and playing lots of minutes. Sure, the New York backcourt is very crowded and Francis might very well come off the bench at the start of the season. Sure, his stint with the Knicks last year saw him put up by far the worst numbers of his career. But he’s still a guy who averaged 21.3/5.8/7.0 in 04-05, and you never know who will get hurt, who will get traded or what the hell will happen in New York. The point is Francis is an afterthought this year. He’ll probably appear on lots of busts lists, but that’s where FBB differs from other sites. We already assume you know that, duh, Francis isn’t in the same position as he was the past few years when he was a top 30 player. It’s the 10^th round, it’s Steve Francis or someone you’re probably going to drop in a week for whatever guy has a random 27-point outburst. No harm in taking the chance that late.

The Slacker: Eddy Curry, C
Dude’s a bum, just face the facts. Sure, he can pour in the points and a couple times a month he even does that. And he’s a career 54% shooter, which is excellent. His heart problem (the literal one, not the figurative one) didn’t present much of a problem last year, it was just his usual mediocre play. He has a big contract and was a top pick, so people will always be looking for a reason to expect big things. Such as the fact that it’s treated as news that he showed up to training camp in good shape. Wow, congratulations, Eddy. Even if he is in good shape it doesn’t change the fact that he’s a career 66% shooter from the line (and he gets there a lot), has never grabbed more than 6.2 rpg or blocked more than 1.1 shots per game. He basically plays like an aggressive small forward. He’s never been able to play 30 mpg because of conditioning and foul problems. The center position is actually pretty deep this year, especially in Yahoo leagues. In fact, Curry makes a questionable C2.

Double Dribbles: Jared Jeffries is one of those guys who gained a reputation as a defensive stopper because he was the only player who was at least a decent defender on a largely inept defensive squad. He’d need about 40 mpg to have fantasy value and that’s just not happening … Nate Robinson showed impressive scoring ability in his rookie season, but there just aren’t enough minutes for him. Even if there were, he’s a 25-minute sparkplug off the bench guy anyway … Jerome James had a good quarter last year. Not a quarter of the season, an actual quarter of a game. I saw it, he scored like 12 points in the first quarter of a game. I guess that’s worth $30 million … Jalen Rose will probably have some big games over the course of the season, be in and out of the starting lineup, but not be worth your while … It only took one year for Quentin Richardson to go from one of the most prolific three-point seasons ever to complete fantasy irrelevance. That’s what happens when you go from fantasy’s most friendly team to it’s least friendly.

Dee-troit Bas-ket-ball had a different spin to it under new head coach Flip Saunders last year.  Armed with a new zeal for offense, they came out of the gate strong and ended up setting a franchise record for wins.  Come the playoffs, though, it was a different story.  The Pistons barely escaped a vicious 7-game series with the Cavs and then went out with a whimper against the eventual champion Miami Heat.  It was the first time in three years that Detroit didn’t represent the East in the NBA Finals.  The offseason didn’t prove to be much of a pick-me-up.  After setting themselves up to re-sign Ben Wallace by trading away Darko Milicic and Carlos Arroyo, Wallace ended up walking his ass across 8 Mile and all the way to Chicago.  The result was perhaps a bit panicked, as they threw a lot of money at Nazr Mohammed, but they also made a nice upgrade in the backcourt and on the bench with the signing of Flip Murray.  No Big Ben will hurt on D, obviously, but will the offense run a little smoother?  It had better …

The Stud: Chauncey Billups, PG
Perhaps no Piston enjoyed the extra freedom that Saunders provided more than Chauncey Billups.  Billups set a career high in points and threes, but the biggest improvement was assists, where he went from a Tony Parker-esque 5.8 to a Jason Kidd-level 8.6, good for fourth in the league.  He also kept up his spectacular FT% and added 0.9 steals.  Billups should benefit from having another capable big man under the basket, but I can’t see him doing any better than he did last year.  One concern is going to be minutes.  Billups is 30 years old, and the Pistons signed three guys in the offseason who can play point guard (the re-signed Lindsay Hunter, Will Blalock, and Murray in a pinch).  He will certainly top 30 minutes, but the 36 he saw last year may be a bit much to expect.  You don’t want to overpay for him, but Billups is a fine PG1 and should be off the board after three rounds.

The Support: Rasheed Wallace, PF
WARNING: Rasheed Wallace no longer qualifies at C in Yahoo! leagues.  Why he ever did is a good question, but regardless, Wallace loses some value by moving to PF for fantasy purposes.  That’s the bad news.  The good news is that Sheed was the second-biggest fantasy winner on the Pistons last year.  Flip Saunders encouraged him to step outside a bit more often, letting Sheed take (and make) more threes than ever before.  However, hanging around the perimeter had a negative effect, too.  He set a career-low in FG%, and took a hit in rebounds, too.  Add to that his poor FT%, and Wallace isn’t quite as attractive a fantasy option as he was in years past.  He’s still a fine mid-round pick, though, thanks to his strong defensive numbers, and may be counted on a little more on the inside this year without Big Ben around.

The Supporting Support: Richard Hamilton, SG
Let’s get the bad stuff out of the way quickly: yes, Hamilton is a one-trick pony.  He scores, and that’s it.  No real help anywhere else.  But you know what?  He’s still a fine fantasy player, and in the right situations can be a great mid-round draft pick.  He clocked in at 59/74 on the total/average player rater and that’s about where he should be drafted, in the 6th round or so.  For teams with not a lot of offensive firepower (say, those which feature Jason Kidd or Boris Diaw, high-round picks that don’t contribute a ton of points), Hamilton is a great add for the round that you get him.  His weaknesses are well documented – but let’s not forget that he has some strength, too.

The Sleeper: Nazr Mohammed, C
It doesn’t matter how much you like Antonio McDyess or Dale Davis or Jason Maxiell.  It also doesn’t matter how much you think the Pistons are going to play small, with Rasheed at C and Tayshaun at PF.  Here’s what matters: Ben Wallace played 35 mpg last year, and now he’s gone, and Nazr Mohammed is the only big man that they’ve added.  Mohammed will almost HAVE to see at least 30 mpg, something he’s never done in his career.  The one time he came close, he put up 10.9/8.1 with a block and a steal with the Knicks before getting dealt to the Spurs two years ago.  Mohammed should flirt with a double-double again this year, and is a nice late-round C pick.  He’s a great third center, and it’s not a disaster if you have to live with him as a C2.

The Slacker: Flip Murray, G
There may not have been a more disappointing line in basketball than the one that Murray put up with the Cavs last year.  Finally given major minutes, he didn’t show an ability to do much with them.  His 13/2/2 with 1.4 steals and 0.7 threes would have been fine if they were in 20 mpg, but at 36 mpg you’ve gotta provide more than that.  Murray should drop back down to that 20 mpg that he’s seen throughout his career, be counted on for a spark off the bench and that’s about it.  But I think we can put to rest the idea that he’ll ever be a big-time contributor in either fantasy or the NBA.

Double Dribbles: A funny thing happens when 5 guys are expected to get over 30 mpg on one team – one of them gets pushed to the “Double Dribbles” section even though he’s worth drafting.  That’s what happened to Tayshaun Prince.  Prince is obviously a fantasy starter and a good mid/late-round pick … Other than Murray, the only bench guy who should see any significant time this year is Antonio McDyess, who played very well last year in a bench role.  He seems better suited off the bench, though, and shouldn’t see much more than 20 mpg, and shouldn’t have fantasy value.