With all due respect to my main men Kevin Martin and Deron Williams, there can be no question that the breakout start of the first month of this NBA season has been Andris Biedrins. Martin and Williams were at least on everyone’s radar coming into the season, while Biedrins wasn’t much more than afterthought. In our defense, Biedrins has been a longtime FBB favorite – I think we’ve actually been referring to him as a longtime FBB favorite for more than a year now. We first took notice in March of his rookie season and pegged him as “the sleeper” on the Warriors  — last year. We didn’t think he’d earn the trust of Don Nelson, but that obviously hasn’t been the case. Not only has he earned his trust, but he’s become perhaps the most consistent member of the team.

So what can we make for Biedrins. There was some wacky talk in the comments the other day, talking about taking Biedrins in the 2^nd or 3^rd round and Rich even said he would consider taking him at the end of the first round. Folks, let’s settle down here just a bit. There’s plenty of season left this year before we need to start determining next year’s draft positions, but I can tell you that Biedrins shouldn’t be taken in the first round. He’s obviously an extremely valuable commodity in keeper leagues and would probably be one of the most untouchable players at this point, although rules in those types of leagues vary so much that it’s hard to say that definitively. So let’s concern ourselves with this year. If you have Biedrins on your team, you got him for free. You swooped in and plucked him off the free agent list and have been enjoying the ride. All of this production is a bonus. So the big question is what to do with him.

I always like to compare players to other players, it helps puts things in context. And here’s who I think that Biedrins is becoming – the player that we thought Samuel Dalembert was going to become. Biedrins’ offensive skills are still very raw. He doesn’t need much of a game since he has such a nose for the ball and manages to get himself easy shots, which leads to his obscene 65% from the field. But as his equally obscene 43% from the line shows, he is not a good shooter. His biggest assets are obviously in boards and blocks, and he is certainly the real deal there. We’ve been envisioning a 13/11/3 blocks with decent steals from Dalembert, and Biedrins averages this year are . Yes, he exploded for 31 points in that 140-129 shoot out against the Nuggets, but has topped 14 points in just one other contest. He is not an offensive force, especially on a team with guys like Baron Davis, Jason Richardson, Monta Ellis and Troy Murphy. Those guys are taking the shots (and lucky for Biedrins, they miss enough for him to clean up). But the blocks and boards are certainly for real. Biedrins is an extremely smart and athletic player. He only grabbed five boards and two blocks last night, but he has 11 games of 10+ boards and 15 games of 2+ blocks, including six of 4 or more.

It would be folly to ignore the free throw issue, though. After shooting an impressive 9-for-11 over the previous three games, Biedrins was back down to 1-for-4 last night. You’ve seen him at the line, it ain’t pretty. He might have good nights, but it’s pure luck. He has attempted 161 free throws in his career and drained 68 for 42%. Think of him as Ben Wallace at the line. He’s a worse shooter than Shaq, but not nearly the volume, and since he’s not fed the ball like Shaq, he won’t hurt you that much. But make no mistake, he will hurt you there. In H2H leagues, any player with a one category deficiency can be worked around, but in roto leagues they are really tough to handle. When you draft a player who is a big drag in FT%, you have to build your roster accordingly. Smart owners can do it easily, but it’s certainly something that needs to be done.

So, let’s bottom line it. I view Biedrins as roughly a 4th round value at this point, but call it 4th/5th since he hasn’t proven it over a long spell. He’s still very young and will be inconsistent; there are very few players in the league that aren’t top offensive options on their team that aren’t inconsistent. It’s not a flaw specific to Biedrins, it’s just how it is. Some people may look at Biedrins like last night – 9/5/2 with 2 blocks – as disappointing, but in a way I see it as encouraging. I’m just as interested in players on their off nights as their on nights. That’s when you can really tell what a he’s made of. If this is an off night for Biedrins, then there’s reason to feel good about him. I mean, it sure beats Kevin Martin’s 2-points and nothing outing from the other night. Biedrins’ 31-point explosion will be his season high, but he’ll get enough dunks to flirt regularly with double digits. It’ll be easy to say that his minutes might dip when everyone on the team is healthy, but is that really going to happen? Troy Murphy, Jason Richardson, Baron Davis, Mickael Pietrus and Ike Diogu have already missed time, so let’s not treat this as an inevitability. Enough waiting for Sammy D to be the next shot blocking machine who does enough to finish top 50 overall. Biedrins looks to be that guy instead.

As I was sitting around this morning lamenting my “safe” first round pick Elton Brand’s rough start to the season, I came across this little nugget from the LA Times: “Elton Brand has acknowledged he’s tired after his workload in the summer with the U.S. national team.”  I had almost forgotten about that!  Only a month into the season, and with my safe second-round pick (and Team USA Alum) Joe Johnson performing as well as I had hoped, I had almost put this summer completely out of my mind.  But here’s the thing – fatigue from the summer is going to matter more as the season goes on, not less.

Still, just because a guy played for his international team doesn’t mean he’s going to struggle this year.  But it definitely will affect some guys.  The trick is to figure out who’s going to really miss those few months off come next spring.  And for me, there are two main factors – age and conditioning.  And when I say “conditioning,” I don’t mean getting out of shape like Boris Diaw (more on that below).  What I mean is, is the player’s body conditioned to play basketball for something like 20 months straight with no real break?

Elton Brand should have been a major red flag on both issues.  First, at age 27 he’s certainly not old, but average age in the NBA is 26, and he’s not exactly lining up on the same side of that line as LeBron James or Chris Bosh.  Secondly, while few question Brand’s conditioning, the fact is that for the six seasons before this one, he’s been able to do his own thing for pretty much 4 months before heading to training camp.  You know, things can be a lot easier when you don’t have to play in the playoffs.

But then, a funny thing happened this summer.  In May, when Elton is typically chilling by the pool (or doing whatever he does), he was locked in an all-out war with the Phoenix Suns.  He ended up adding an extra 12 NBA games to his normal schedule thanks to the playoffs, and then took off for Team USA after that!  What I’m saying is, even though he may work out and train with the best of them, adding a few months of work to a schedule will make things tough on anyone.

As a contrast, think about Yao Ming.  Sure, he played in the worlds, but he also got a nice break after the regular season.  He also sat out for a while during the season last year due to injury.  What’s more, prior to this season, he had been playing basketball basically 12 months a year thanks to his committments to Team China.  So he was ready for the extra workload that was going to be required of him this summer.

This doesn’t mean I’m going to be doing anything drastic irrational about Brand, but it certainly means I’m going to keep this in mind as I track his progress.  At this point, my best bet is probably to just hope he gets out of his funk (he has had a couple of nice games recently).  But I wouldn’t make a deal FOR him as a first-round value, either.

So, with that said, who else am I concerned about when it comes to fatigue?  I had mentioned Dwyane Wade in our Season Preview, and I’m still worried about him moving forward, but here are some mid-level guys that you should also be wary of:

Antawn Jamison - If you watch too many crappy Wizards games like I do, you’ll notice that Jamison has been a shadow of his typical self.  He hasn’t been rebounding the ball quite as much, he’s settling for far more jumpers, and he’s slowly turning into a third option behind Caron Butler.  Jamison is typically streaky anyways, but to me he’s showing some possible signs of fatigue from the summer.  He turned 30 this summer as well, and he may not be the double-double machine that you were hoping for when you drafted him.

Shane Battier - We’ve had a couple of questions about Battier and he’s been a prety consistent topic of discussion here ever since I proclaimed him to be a breakout star this year.  (In case you were counting, that’s 2 DUke players that I’ve vouched for, and 2 Duke players that have come up short.)  Battier’s Usage Rate (thank you John Hollinger) has fallen from a career-low last year of 12.5 to a new, even more astounding low of 11.0.  He’s not shooting, and even when he IS shooting, he’s missing.  As predicted, he’s dialing more from long distance this year, but he’s also not rebounding the ball, getting to the line, or making his foul shots.  Battier is clearly playing more on the perimiter and I don’t know if that’s simply his new role on the Rockets, or if it’s because he’s tired, but I worry that it’s the second of those.

Boris Diaw - What, you forgot that there are other national teams besides USA?  Diaw may be a youngster at age 24, but the fact is that for the 2 years before last he played about 20 mpg for the Hawks, then got to hang out for a few months in the summer.  Not anymore.  Last year he played 35 mpg for the Suns in the regular season, then played consecutive 7, 7, and 6-game series in the playoffs where he averaged 40 mpg.  He finally wrapped things up in early june and then headed to play for Team France, where he led the team in minutes (31/game) during their nine games in the Championships.   And somehow, the the month between his last game for France and the start of training camp in October, he managed to end up 15 pounds overweight.  I’m concerned less about the weight, which he’ll lose, and concerned more about the fatigue with Diaw.  This season may not end pretty for him.

In our first edition of BSH, we looked at the Golden State Warriors, a team who’s oft-injured star (Baron Davis) and breakout players (Monta Ellis, Andris Biedrins) created a situation with values in flux.  We’re going to continue that trend today and look at the Utah Jazz, a team with an oft-injured star (Andrei Kirilenko) and a breakout player (Deron Williams) that has created some changing values and maybe could change the way we look at this team. 

There are, of course, a couple of major differences.  For one, Golden State has a new head coach in Don Nelson, whereas Utah’s Jerry Sloan is the oldest institution in Utah besides Mormons.  Two, Nelson believes in a seven-to-eight man rotation, whereas Sloan plays a solid 10-12 most nights.  And finally, Utah’s got a couple of guys who are 30-minutes-no-matter-what in their starting lineup in Carlos Boozer, Deron Williams and Mehmet Okur.  So the minutes aren’t going to be as available here as they are in Golden State.  Still, with AK-47 all busted and Boozer and Williams playing like Stockton and Malone, something’s up in the Salt Lake …

Andrei Kirilenko – Let’s start here.  You knew going into the season that Kirilenko was an injury risk, and that was brought to reality pretty quickly with the ankle sprain that’s kept him out for 5 games.  What you perhaps weren’t counting on was that his offensive game would fall completely off the table.  Even when he’s on the floor, he’s not shooting the ball very much – and when he IS shooting the ball, it’s not going in!  What’s more worrying is that this is looking less like an aberration and more like a trend.  Last year his points per 40 minutes dropped by almost three, and now it’s down another six.  His FT% dropped 9 percent last year and now it’s still there.  And his FG% dropped over 3% last year and now it’s down another six.  I don’t think he’s going to continue being this bad but he may end up being a ten points a night kinda guy.  Jerry Sloan has pulled him in from the 3-point line as well, and his 0-5 the other night won’t help reverse that trend.  He had his best game in awhile last night but I’m not convinced he’ll be consistent enough to be a stud anymore.  If you can find someone who still believes that AK can contribute late second round value (or even third), I think you’ve got to pull the trigger there.  VERDICT: SELL.

Carlos Boozer – The longer this goes on, the more that Boozer looks like he’s going to be a pretty serious fantasy force for the foreseeable future.  And no, I’m not talking about his career-highs in points, boards, FG%, or assists, because those are going to come down eventually.  But it’s starting to look like he’s going to be a dependable double-double with great percentages for a C, and while he’s never going to contribute in blocks or steals, it’s time to look at Boozer like a legit Top-30 player.  Some Boozer owners are going to want to sell high on him, but the truth is he’s not over-performing by THAT much.  If you can get him for a shaky third or a fourth round value, go for it.  VERDICT: BUY.

Deron Williams – The big question here is, has Williams simply improved, or is he over-performing?  I was all ready to come in to this and say that Williams is going to crash back to Earth eventually, just like Kevin Martin and Zack Randolph and then DM will go home crying to his Momma.  But the fact of the matter is that Williams, like Boozer, has some substance behind his statistical burst.  First of all, he dropped eight pounds over the offseason.  Secondly, it looks like he’s won over Jerry Sloan, and you don’t need Carlos Arroyo to tell you that Sloan decides your fate in Utah.  I still think he’s over-performing, but I also wouldn’t mind tricking a sell-happy owner into selling him for a fourth-round value.  VERDICT: BUY.

Mehmet Okur - While Boozer and Williams have excelled, and Kirilenko has collapsed, Mehmet Okur has simply been exactly what he was last year.  Those who were worried that last year was going to be a fluke for Okur can rest those fears now.  He’ll be a solid producer for the foreseeable future, and if you took him in the fourth round, good for you.  VERDICT: HOLD.

Matt Harpring -  Remember last week when I was talking about how you have to have that “plug-in starter” on your bench, the guy who you can put in your lineup for a game or two when one of your players has a nagging injury?  Matt Harpring is that guy defined.  He obviously won’t shoot 54% over the rest of the year but he’ll put up double-digit points with a couple boards and occasional 3’s or steals.  VERDICT: HOLD.

Paul Millsap - Pardon me as I continue to pat myself on the back for totally calling it on Millsap leading up to the draft.  He led the country in rebounds for three consecutive years, and I was hoping the Wizards would use their FIRST round pick on him.  Still, he’s just not going to see the consistent minutes that he needs to be successful.  He’ll have his hot streaks for sure, but unless Boozer or Okur go down with an injury, Millsap is probably waiver wire fodder.  VERDICT: SELL.

Derek Fisher – Here’s one you may have forgotten about.  Fisher has quietly been picking up his game in Utah and had hit double-digit points in three straight before last night.  He will see his minutes because Jerry Sloan likes his veteran presence.  Like Harpring, Fisher should be on the bench if you’re in a deep league as that fill-in starter.  Unlike Harpring, it’s certainly a possibility that Fisher will see more minutes as the season goes on.  Utah will not continue this torrid pace (much easier to say after they lost their last 2), and the obvious answer for Sloan – other than Kirilenko working his way back into the lineup – is for more Fisher.  VERDICT: BUY.

We’re back after the holiday weekend, so let’s try to do a bunch of quick hits before getting to a super-sized Transaction Reaction. This is gonna be a long one, so if you have some work you actually need to take care of after the long weekend, do a bit of that first, if you’re feeling responsible.

One More Reason to Love AI
Allen Iverson is great. Not that this is any news flash. He’s long been one of my favorite players in the league, and the fact that he’s taken his game to another level the past few years just makes him that much more special. I still remember where I was for his famous “We talkin’ ‘bout practice” press conference, a very fond memory. But let’s get back to fantasy. We know that AI’s a modest injury risk, but his recent time off shows why it’s easier to deal with his time off. His wisdom tooth situation wasn’t a normal injury, but it was pretty representative of what happens when AI misses games. He goes all out, misses a game or two, then comes back full steam, like he did over the weekend. This can’t be discounted. When we talk about players missing games due to injury, often that number is a bit misleading. Let’s take Josh Howard as a recent example. He recently returned from an eight-game absence. But it’s not just those eight games, really. He got hurt and played only 15 minutes back on Nov. 6. When he came back, he played just 16 minutes off the bench and even though he was back in the starting lineup on Saturday, he played just 26 minutes. It’s taking him – like it does with most players – a few games to get back into the swing of things. This is never the case with AI. It takes quite an injury to make him leave a game early, and he’s simply not going to suit up if he can’t go 40 minutes. This is great for daily lineup leagues, since you can just leave him in there even if he’s questionable, knowing that he won’t give you a half-hearted clunker and eat up one of your precious 82 games at the position. So we salute AI for that.

Beware Injured Bucks
A few people have mentioned in the comments that they are thinking of using a roster spot to pick up either Bobby Simmons or Charlie Villanueva. I’d think twice about this. As we always say, we’re not doctors, but the news on these two doesn’t sound too good. B-Sim has had complications with his injury and hasn’t even been able to get on the court. When the season started, word was that he’d be out about a month, but he’s seemingly made no progress on that timetable as of yet. There are whispers that Simmons work ethic hasn’t been the best since he signed his big contract, and it doesn’t seem like he’s in much of a hurry to get back on the court. As for Villanueva, torn elbow ligament does not sound very good. Maybe if you were a placekicker in the NFL you could deal with that, but it seems that basketball players use their elbows and the ligaments that go with it fairly regularly. In other words, I’m not expecting either of these guys to be real fantasy options until 2007. Villanueva’s worth holding on to, but I’d probably leave Simmons out there. As for the Bucks, Terry Stotts might be the upset winner in the First Coach Fired sweepstakes. The East is so pathetic right now that all these 4-9 teams are still well in the thick of things, so it’s possible to shake things up and make up some serious ground.

Mike James Sucks, Too
Lost in all of the Stephon Marbury bashing is the fact that another highly drafted scoring PG has been sucking hard. While Marbury was taken in the 4^th round of most drafts, James was taken in the 5^th round and he seems to have hit rock bottom lately. James hasn’t scored in his past two games and has been losing crunch time minutes to Marko Jaric — Marko Jaric!!! (Jaric has actually played some decent ball of late, but, y’know, he’s Marko Jaric.) James looks lost on the Wolves, and his case may be even worse than Marbury since most owners have had Marbury glued to their benches for a while, while James was doing just enough to merit staying in lineups, but still doing damage while in there. As Ben Wallace owners well know, it’s not always easy to adapt to new surroundings, so let’s not give up on James yet. But he’s always been at his best when he’s getting tons of minutes and controlling the ball the majority of the time. One or the other doesn’t really cut it, he needs both. It’s hard to see that happening. I think he’ll still be worthy of using for much of the year, but you’ll probably want to make him prove that he’s worthy of being in your lineup instead of continuing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

What’s With the Warriors?
There are some crazy things going on in Oakland. We thought Don Nelson would be causing frustration for fantasy owners all year, but that’s not really been the case, and Saturday night was the best example of this. The team was shorthanded with both Baron Davis and Mickael Pietrus unavailable, but it was still downright shocking to see four players get at least 43 minutes in a non-overtime game. Absolutely incredible. It led to some pretty crippling shooting lines from Jason Richardson and Monta Ellis, but 43 minutes is 43 minutes. We’ve been fans of Andris Biedrins and Ellis, we just didn’t think that they would earn the trust of Don Nelson, and part of that was due to what we were reading in the papers before the season started. Now they are fixtures in the lineup, and two of the only players on the team that can be counted on to be out there every night. Perhaps the lesson here is that to take what you read in the local papers with a grain of salt. Or, better yet, treat it as total bullshit. It will be interesting to see how Nelson divvies up the minutes when everyone is healthy, but will everyone actually be healthy? I like Ike Diogu, but his sprained ankle sure is healing slowly and he’s going to have to play his way back into favor. But then again, it didn’t exactly look like Matt Barnes was on the verge of having any fantasy value. What looked like a possibly disastrous situation by the Bay could end up being quite nice.

Kevin Martin Is My Hero
Despite his amazingly shittastic play as of late, Gilbert Arenas will remain my favorite player in the NBA as long as he’s wearing his Wizards uniform. (“And especially when he takes it off after each game,” says BV.) But there is no question who my second favorite player in the league is now, and that is the Skinny Sacramento Scoring Machine, Kevin Martin. It’s hard to explain how much I love this guy. He’s the anti-Marbury. Everyone who drafted him, you’re with me, right? He’s a joy to own and a joy to watch. If you picked him up as a free agent, that’s nice, but it’s not the same as drafting him, I’m just letting you know that. There’s not much news to report here, I just want to remind everyone how awesome Kevin Martin is.

November 26
Pickup: Chris Duhon
Drop: Channing Frye
Duhon’s a good example of a guy to use for your “low upside plug in” bench spot. He’s rarely going to put up a huge line, but he’s getting more minutes now that he’s back in the starting lineup – 33.5 in the last two – and is usually good for a decent combo of 3s, assists and steals. You could do a lot better, but you could do worse. Frye’s injury might actually be a good thing, as he’ll stop teasing owners for about a month and we can just let him sit there on the free agent list for a while.

November 25
Pickup: Andrea Bargnani
Drop: Erick Dampier
This pickup was by the same team as the one above, and it’s an excellent tandem pickup. Bargnani is a perfect use of the “high upside” bench spot, as the rookie is turning it on as of late. He’s getting around 25 mpg lately, which isn’t enough to give him value, but that time might not be far away. His problem is that he doesn’t seem to do anything especially well, even though he’s been an asset while on the floor. He hits some 3s, blocks some shots and makes some free throws, but none of them in bunches. The potential is obviously there, so keep watching. I told you not to get excited about Dampier after his 22 and 15 game a week or so ago. He’ll intermittently string together a few strong games and there are worse plug-ins if you’re weak at center, but he’s just not a reliable option.

Pickup: Marcus Williams
Drop: Paul Millsap
The rookie from Connecticut has looked outstanding the past couple of games, scoring 44 points in 36 minutes. Not bad. He’s a good use of a high-upside bench spot, but while a guy like Bargnani might be able to find more minutes without an injury, it will almost certainly take an injury for Williams to have value. Well, I think. The Nets, like every team in the East, are struggling. They’ve lost five in a row and haven’t topped 100 points in any of those games. Is it possible the Nets go super small and replace Jason “Holy Shit I Scored 8 Points Last Night!” Collins with Williams and play Richard Jefferson at PF? Nah, not likely. But that would certainly be some offensive firepower, with lots of playmakers. A few things to note about Williams – he has just a single block and steal all season, and he’s 5-for-30 from long range, and that’s after hitting two last night. It’s really hard to get just one steal while averaging 20 mpg in 13 contests, but Williams has managed to do it. Still a relatively small sample size, but very worrisome. Millsap saw only 10 minutes in Andrei Kirilenko’s first game back, but was back up to 20 on Saturday. Now here’s a guy who can help out in steals and blocks, but that’s some frontline he has to work through. Like the rest of Utah’s bench, these are great players to have on your real-life team, but just not too relevant for fantasy purposes.

Pickup: Dorell Wright
Drop: Sean May
Here’s one of your hotter pickups this week. Antoine Walker was booted from the starting lineup after taking a dump on the Heat, or something like that, according to Pat Riley, so the third-year player who may as well still be a rookie for all of the PT he’s seen is the new starting SF for the defending world champs. He hasn’t done much more than grab a bunch of boards, but 38 then 41 minutes = value. He’s shown an ability to block some shots, hit a few 3s and has obviously been boarding like a maniac lately. It would be surprising to see Walker regain his starting spot any time soon; James Posey might be the one to worry about, if he can get rid of his lingering calf problem. But Wright looks like he’ll get a chance to establish himself. If he continues with the high-energy play he’ll continue to see plenty of minutes, but 40 per night might be asking a bit much. Like all young players, expect inconsistency and some random huge nights that will give you unreasonably high expectations. May has become a complete afterthought in Charlotte the past few games, not even registering double digit minutes.

Pickup: Eddy Curry
Drop: Kyle Lowry
Remember how I told you that the Eddy Curry Carousel would take everyone’s 34^th favorite center-eligible player from team to team over the course of the year. Well, the season isn’t even a month old and he’s already made an appearance on 25% of the teams in my league. Back-to-back 20 point games are nice, and without Channing Frye there will be more “bigs” minutes to go around, although Curry’s big problems with minutes are fouls and conditioning. The points and FG% are nice, but take away his three blocks on opening night and he has one more than Marcus Williams. He’s been to the line an impressive 23 times in the past two games; he’s hit just 9 of those freebies. In other words, same old Curry. See you in an upcoming edition of Transaction Reaction.

November 23
Pickup: Shelden Williams
Drop: Matt Harpring
For a while there I was thinking that Shelden Williams was on his way to being the next Jason Collins, known for his modest rebounding and immodest suckiness. But he’s topped 15 points in two of his last three, which was nice to see. He was a big swatter at Duke but has totaled just five on the season despite decent minutes, which is disappointing. But as Emeka Okafor has showed us, sometimes it takes players a bit longer to learn how to block shots in the pros. Williams scoring outbursts coincided with talk of Marvin Williams accelerating his rehab, although it still seems likely that the rookie will take a backseat to the sophomore (who is three years younger than him). Harpring, like I said before, is a total gamer with very limited fantasy value.

Pickup: Stephen Jackson
Drop: Antoine Walker
The Indy Gunner is coming off the bench but basically playing starters minutes and doing what he usually does – taking lots of 3s, hitting them on occasion and grabbing some steals. Jackson’s not the worst, but I seriously try to avoid those 41% shooters. So you can pretty much guess my stance on 21% guys like ‘Toine, or whatever he was shooting before he finally found the basket on Saturday.

Pickup: Kyle Lowry
Drop: Jeff Foster
This pickup was made a few hours before it was reported that Lowry was out with a fractured wrist. The rookie showed some promise, but it’s going to be a while before we hear from him again. The Chucky Atkins/Damon Stoudamire show continues in Memphis. Please try to contain your excitement.

November 22
Pickup: Damon Jones
Drop: Jake Tsakalidis
We hate Damon Jones for what he did to the Wizards back in April, but the guy is providing some serious help to those in need of 3s. He’s nailed 14 in his last five games and is locked in as a 28-32 mpg player these days. Larry Hughes has now missed six games with his “day-to-day” injury – shocker, I know – so expect the good times to continue to roll for Damon, even though he’s coming off the bench. One of the good things about Jones is that you know exactly what you’ll get with him – at least five 3PA and absolutely nothing else. If his shot goes cold – like it was for most of last year – he’ll completely lose his value. But he can singlehandedly help you make up some ground in 3s the way he’s going now. I have no idea why Jake Tsakalidis was picked up.

Pickup: Kwame Brown
Drop: Brian Skinner
Kwame is playing some excellent ball these days, averaging around 14 and 9 with an impressive 2 blocks over the past three games. Andrew Bynum is still starting and with the Lakers winning I wouldn’t expect that to change, but unless Bynum goes off early in the first quarter, it’s likely that Brown will continue to see his 25-30 mpg. Brown has always been a physical specimen and it seems like he’s finally being utilized in a way that fits him. He still has below average touch and offensive skill in general, but that’s OK when you’re the fourth or fifth option on your team and not the failed savior of the franchise. He’s moving his feet on defense, getting in position for rebounds and playing within himself. I think it’s a bit much to expect Kwame to keep up that 14/9 with 2 blocks pace from the past few games, but he should at least be a solid rebounding option, like a Jeff Foster with more upside. Not ideal for a former #1 pick, but not bad for a #2 center you can pick up off the free agent list.

November 21
Pickup: Paul Millsap
Drop: Eddy Curry
I’ve talked about both of these players already. Remember, up above?

Pickup: Ersan Ilyasova
Drop: Speedy Claxton
I’m having a hard time understanding why someone picked up Ilyasova – who basically seems like a marginally better version of Jiri Welsch (I know, I know, there’s no such thing as a worse version) – while Ruben Patterson is still sitting on the free agent list. Ilyasova’s been starting in place of Villanueva and in the past four games his minutes have gone 24-21-16-13. That’s what we in the fantasy business call a “negative trend.” Theoretically he’s a good shooter, although his 30% from the field and 23% from long range don’t really bear that out. He was born in 1987. 1987! I’m having a bit of a problem accepting the fact that there are now players in the NBA who was born in 1987.

Pickup: Marvin Williams
Drop: Joel Przybilla
This is a move I made. I like the Przy, but with LaMarcus Aldridge asserting himself in Portland, it’s hard to see the Przy getting consistent PT, especially since he was barely a 25 mpg player when he was starting. I’ve got Kendrick Perkins manning the boards/blocks/black hole offense #2 slot right now and I figured I’d take a shot on Williams. I’m not a big fan of grabbing injured players, but it sounds like Williams had a clean break and shouldn’t have too many complications when he returns, apart from the normal rust. He’ll likely stay on fantasy benches for a while and maybe even the real life bench, especially if Shelden Williams continues his strong play as of late. But the Hawks know that Marvin is the Williams with the most upside and he’ll work his way up to 30 mpg eventually.

Pickup: Hedo Turkoglu
Drop: Carlos Arroyo
I’d rather have the guy who’s starting for the Magic, too. Turkoglu finally had a decent year last year but hasn’t backed it up with an impressive start so far. He never shot above 42% before last year’s 45.4% breakout, and now he’s back down to 37%. He’ll have a hot streak at some point, but he’ll only have definite value if Grant Hill goes down. When Hill was out on Saturday Hedo put up 14/5/5 in just 26 minutes. The Magic just have too many options on offense this year to make him consistently worth using at this point, though. Arroyo’s one of them, even though he’s not worth using.

Pickup: Fred Jones
Drop: Derek Fisher
This was a move I made when it was apparent that Fisher was locked in as 6^th man in Utah. Jones is no great shakes, another one of those low-upside plug-ins, and he was getting too many minutes to ignore. He usually comes up with a few 3s and steals, but those 3-for-11s he puts up nightly are silent killers. I’ve actually had him starting the past few games, but I think I’m going to be giving him the heave-ho soon. Too tempting to throw in there for those 3s and steals, but I’m trying my best to finish top 3 in FG% this year.

It’s Thanksgiving, so I’m supposed to do to the cheesy “Players I’m Thankful For” post, and believe me, I could – I’m the dude who drafted Deron Williams, Zach Randolph and Kevin Martin in rounds 6, 7 and 8. (Yes, I’m bragging, but I’m also trying to make myself feel better for what’s about to come.) Instead, I’m going to go the other way and let it fly.

Stephon Marbury. I hate you. I don’t love to hate you. I just hate you. You are terrible. For the next five months, you are going to bring at least a little bit of misery into every day of my life. You made me happy last night only because I had you on my bench. I thought to myself, “Well, Steve Francis is probably going to head to the bench, maybe he’ll have better luck with Jamal Crawford, maybe he’ll be motivated against his former team.” But I thought better of it. He started the game off driving to the hoop for a layup and I thought I might regret my decision. The rest of his first quarter action consisted of three missed shots and four turnovers. The fact that his final line – 18/1/3, 7-of-15, 4-of-15, no 3s, steals or blocks, 5 turnovers – qualifies as a step in the right direction says it all.

I’m especially upset because I shouldn’t have let this happen. I was very high on Marbury’s chances of turning it around after last year’s disaster. Larry Brown was gone, Isiah Thomas was in. Thomas needed Marbury and Marbury needed Thomas. Marbury had been one of the most consistent performers in the league in the past decade, and last year he was both injured and held hostage by Larry Brown. He even had a new shoe – the $15 sneaker – that he was trying to sell. And hey, when your sneaker only costs $15, you better sell a whole shitload of them, right? Eh, what do I know, I slept through most of my one economics class, when I even went. Point being, I expected big things, but if you remember this post the day before my draft, I basically placed Marbury on my team before the draft even started. And that was just foolish. I hate targeting players; you have to see how the draft plays out and get the value that presents itself. But I pretty much settled on Marbury and when my pick came up in the 4^th round, I grabbed him. One of my favorite players, Jason Terry, went two picks later at #47. Terry is always undervalued, and would have been a fine pick there. But my mind was made up. Learn from my mistake.

I’ve watched a lot of Knicks ball so far this year – as much as I’ve been able to stomach, at least – in an attempt to diagnose Marbury’s problems. One of our wisest commenters, Bublitchki, offered his thoughts in the comments section of BV’s Warriors post on Tuesday, and I don’t think he’s far off. I’m not sure I buy as much into the Bill Walton-esque psychoanalysis that Marbury is a broken man and that he can’t restore his confidence. I do think it’s clear that he’s lost the swagger that he used to have, that he didn’t really earn, honestly. And it’s also fairly clear that Marbury does not approach the game the same way he once did. The slashing and tenacity aren’t there. He brings the ball upcourt, and if he doesn’t take it to the rack immediately, he passes it off and knows it’s not coming back to him. Because let’s face it, it would be hard to put a team together with fewer people who are interested in passing than what Isiah Thomas has cobbled together up in New York. Channing Frye, Eddy Curry, Jamal Crawford, Nate Robinson, Quentin Richardson – chuckers, everyone of them. So what happens is Marbury comes up court, passes it off and runs to the corner, uninterested, like Randy Moss breaking the huddle on an off tackle run.

So can it get better? Well, yeah, of course it can get better. And because of that, it’s going to be tough to do anything with Marbury. Unless you play in a ridiculously shallow league, you can’t think about cutting Marbury. He’s still a proven commodity who’s getting 35 mpg, cutting him out of frustration won’t really solve anything. His trade value is basically non-existent. For all the talk about buying low and selling high, there aren’t many people out there who actually have the balls to buy low, especially as low as Marbury is right now. The switch to Crawford doesn’t seem like a cure-all tonic.  The Knicks are down to 4-9, and it might be getting to desperation time for Isiah. We could be getting to a point like last year, when there wasn’t a single Knick that was a safe play. As it stands now, only Jamal Crawford really is anyway. It seems unlikely the Knicks could have any sort of real success without Marbury, but the Knicks have certainly been playing worse with him on the court. Not much to do except slot him into your “slumper” bench slot that BV talked about yesterday. And maybe buy his shoes as gifts for everyone you know for Christmas, Hanukkah or Festivus, to inspire him.

While there’s a ton of attention paid to starters this early in the year, the odds are that the majority of the moves that you make will be affecting your bench more than anything else.  Most waiver wire pickups involve bench players, so I thought it would be worth discussing how you should look at organizing your bench.

Most leagues have a varying amount of bench spots, but regardless of how many spots you have there are 2 roles that should be filled on any bench:

Role #1 – The fill-in starter.  This is a guy who generally isn’t worth starting but can be used in a pinch.  They may be unreliable but they’ll have their share of decent games.  Good examples in a 12×13 league like ours are guys like Matt Harpring, Mark Blount, even a guy like Darko Milicic.  It’s also important that this guy fits with your roster so that if anyone goes down he or one of your utility guys can fill in at their position.

Role #2 – The garbage spot.  No, this isn’t reserved for Jorge Garbajosa, but he’s exactly the kind of player this spot should be used on.  This spot is absolutely integral to fantasy success because without it, you’ve got the potential to miss out on the next big pick-up.  We get a ton of comments that say something along the lines of, “I really want to pick up player X, but I can’t drop players Y or Z to get him!”  This is why you have a garbage spot.  If the 12th and 13th players on your roster are too valuable to drop, than you need to package them in a deal to upgrade a spot on your starting roster.  This spot is why you wake up every morning and check the box scores and find out who’s been hurt and who’s filling in for him.  Without this spot you’re going to miss out on guys like Monta Ellis, Tyronne Lue, even someone like David Lee, who can provide some serious short-term help to your squad and even have a chance to be mainstays on your roster throughout the season.  These guys can make your fantasy season – if your roster has room for them.

The rest of your bench can be used a couple of different ways.  Obviously, injured guys who are normally sure-thing starters are going to need a spot on your bench.  But i want to talk about a pitfall that a number of teams fall into.  They end up with a couple of different guys that all could fill that “Role #1,” all who aren’t really starters but could conceivably fill in for a game or two.  However, unless you’ve got a bunch of injury risks on your team, having more than one of those guys is a total waste of a roster spot.  Instead, you shuld focus on guys who have a good chance of being start-able in the NEAR FUTURE.  Let’s discuss the three other categories of bench candidates and give examples of good ones and bad ones:

The Injured Marginal Starter: Some guys are not valuable to warrant a bench spot if they’re going to be out for, say, two months.  But as those two months wear down, their value slowly improves and eventually it’s worth picking them up before they’re back on the court.  So while Pau Gasol isn’t going to be found on any waiver wires simply because he’s too good when healthy, utility-type guys can and will be dropped when hurt, and possibly picked up before their return.

A good example is a move that DM made yesterday (and which I’m sure he’ll discuss more in his next Transaction Reaction), dropping the injured Joel Przybilla, who’s out for the forseeable future, and picking up the injured Marvin Williams, who’s expected to be back in a couple of weeks and will have better value than The Prz when healthy.
Good example: Bobby Simmons
Bad Example: Shaquille O’Neal

The Rookie: Let’s face it.  Rookies are going to have their ups and downs. Managing them correctly, you’re going to have a valuable piece to your puzzle, but they’re so tough to predict on a nightly basis that a lot of times they’re more trouble than they’re worth (Rudy Gay, I’m looking at you).  Still, bench spots are often used for rookies and I say why the heck not.  THey’re an unknown commodity and often they can come out of nowhere to be really useful players.  Again, though, they need to be able to contribute in the NEAR FUTURE to be worth that bench spot, meaning if they’re stuck behind a couple of vets on a depth chart they’re just not worth your time.
Good Example: Paul Millsap
Bad Example: Randy Foye

The Slumper:  You know the type.  Hell, you probably even drafted one.  Everyone does.  These guys are the hardest to let go because you know that once you do, they’re going to turn right around and be a decent fantasy player down the line.  Guys like this will generate a good number of comments on FBB and for good reason.  Are they hurt?  Is playing time an issue?  Will they pick up the pieces?  Ultimately, no one knows.  But if you guess right on your slumper, good for you.
Good example: Boris Diaw
Bad Example: Speedy Claxton

Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

What, you think DM is the only one who can come up with new ideas for columns?  Here’s a little number I call “Buy, Sell or Hold,” where we take teams that are over- or under-performing and look closer at their roster to see who’s worth buying, who’s worth selling, and who’s too tough to make a judgement on just yet.  Without any further ado…

Somethings going on out there on the left coast.  Golden State isn’t just winning, they’re winning big.  Their average margin of victory is 14.4 during their current 5 game winning streak, highlighted by a 32-point victory over Detroit, of all teams.  Of course, there’s plenty of reason to believe that this will all blow over.  First, every game has been at home – and they’ve got 2 more to go before they finally leave their friendly confines to go to Denver.  (Side note – this is some ingenious scheduling by the NBA.  They know that come January this team will be an absolute mess, so they give them a 7-game homestand in November.  In fact, during November they’re playing 12 at home and just 4 on the road.  This way they maximize ticket sales while the team is clicking.  Brilliant!)  Two, they’ve got three guys playing by far the best ball of their life in Monta Ellis, Andris Biedrins and Mickael Pietrus.  And three, well, let’s just say we’ve learned our lesson before about Baron Davis.

Still, right now it’s possible – even probable – that as many as seven Warriors are owned in your league right now.  Let’s take a look-see at how these guys should be handled, because odds are their stats now will not be reflective of their stats in the future: 

Baron Davis -  Well, we’ve certainly seen this story before, haven’t we?  Baron gets off to a hot start, then gets a little hurt, then misses some time, then you lose your league.  For the love of god, sell on Baron if you can get anything near third-round value for him.  He’s right around 20 on most player raters, but he’s just as likely to end up around 80-100 by the end of the year.  Those of you who drafted him in the 5th round this year have gotten exactly what you wanted – a hot start.  Now it’s time to sell and trade up in value, turn that fifth round pick into a third round pick and let someone else hold their breath all year.  VERDICT: SELL.

Monta Ellis - Ellis is quickly turning into an FBB favorite.  In fact, I was pretty impressed with him last year but it didn’t look like he was going to get enough minutes this year.  Luckily, with Don Nelson playing approximately 8 guards on the floor at all times, Ellis is thriving with over 30 mpg so far.  You might think that Ellis is a sell high candidate right now, but I”m going to go the other way.  I mean, he’s seeing over 30 mpg and between Jason Richardson and Baron Davis both dealing with injuries, that number should continue.  In fact, I’m so low on Davis right now that I’d advocate going out and getting Ellis from a sell-high-happy owner.  If you can get him for a Utility guy – and you should be able to – I say do it.  A Baron injury is all that stands between him and a 17 point, 6 assist average with a three and a steal.  VERDICT: BUY.

Mickael Pietrus - Pietrus may be valued higher than Ellis right now but I think that’s going to reverse itself by the end of the year.  Troy Murphy’s return will have a serious negative effect on Pietrus as he’ll be forced to move back to the perimiter, grabbing less rebounds, shooting a lesser percentage, blocking less shots, and seeing less minutes in general.  While Ellis has succeeded even when the Warriors were at full strength, Pietrus has only had good games and major minutes when either Murphy or Jason Richardson were out.  Still, odds are that he’ll manage at least 25-30 mpg and put up something similar to 14-5 with a three and a steal.  I’d still expect the FG% and blocks to drop, but that won’t surprise anyone.  VERDICT: HOLD.

Andris Biedrins - Here at FBB we’ve been huge fans of Andris Biedrins ever since we spent hours staring at this photo and feeling a little uncomfortable about ourselves.  The fact is that Biedrins is going to have plenty of good games but also plenty of bad ones and he’s probably more trouble than he’s worth.  That said, teams desperate for a center should be willing to overpay for him, so if you’ve got a team like that I’d start some trade talks there.  VERDICT: SELL

Mike Dunleavy, Jr. – In what has been one of the least-shocking developments of the early season, Mike Dunleavy has been a pretty big disappointment.  Well, that’s not true – in reality he’s pretty much the same player he’s always been.  But the preseason talk of him being a point-forward inflated his value and made some people think he was primed for a break-out year.  Well, now we can put those rumors to rest.  Dunleavy will have a few good games here and there but will ultimately be a marginal utility guy, just like he’s always been.  VERDICT: HOLD.

Jason Richardson - Does anyone else get the feeling that Richardson rushed himself back from his knee surgery?  Let’s look at the symptoms:  He wasn’t supposed to be ready for the beginning of the season but came back anyways.  He’s seen 7 mpg fewer than he got last year.  He missed a game due to soreness in his surgically repaired knee.  And the guy that typically depends on his explosiveness more than anything else has seen a severe drop in his percentages as well as a major drop in his defensive stats.  I’m just waiting for the Warriors to announce that Richardson is going to shut it down for awhile.  VERDICT: SELL

Troy Murphy - On the down side, he’s rebounding at half of his normal rate and still is allergic to blocking shots.  On the plus side, he – along iwht pretty much every Warrior outside of J-Rich – is averaging a career high in FG%.  Murphy should eventually settle down to what he’s always been – a double-double with a three and little else.  If that’s your thing, don’t let me stop you.  VERDICT:HOLD.

Another new feature here on FBB, one where we pit two seemingly equal players against each other in a battle to the death. Except replace “battle to the death” with “which one will be more valuable in fantasy leagues.” Today we’ll look at a couple of players that were brought up by commenter Rich over the weekend, Peja Stojakovic and our #2 hero here in D.C., Caron Butler. Don’t worry, we can be objective. Most likely.

Scoring Catgories
It’s almost exactly even through FG%, FT% and points. Stojakovic could be counted on for around 48% during his peak years in Sacramento, but that’s not going to happen anymore. Both him and Butler can be expected to shoot around 45% on about 14-15 shots per game. Stojakovic has an uncharacteristically low 79% mark from the line right now, but you can expect that will be around 90% by the end of the season. Still, Butler has a bit more value from the line since his not-at-all-shabby 85% comes with a couple more attempts per game. Both players can be expected to drop in just under 20 points per game. Stojakovic is more explosive, as his 42-point game the other night showed, but Butler might actually be a more consistent option since he’s more likely to get to the line. It’s when we step out to long range that Stojakovic has the obvious edge. Butler loves to take 20-foot jumpers, but he doesn’t like to often extend outside that. Stojakovic is a straight-up gunner. At least 40% of his attempts will be from behind the arc, and expect him, Ray Allen and Gilbert Arenas to fight it out for most 3PM at the end of the season.
Edge: Stojakovic

Non-Scoring Categories
Here’s where Butler has the big advantage. Remember back in his rookie season when Butler averaged 1.8 spg and we thought he’d be one of the great thieves for the next decade? Then his role diminished the next season and it took him a while to get adapted in L.A. the next season. He got back to 1.7 spg in his first season in Washington and this season only Ron Artest and Brevin Knight are topping Butler’s 2.2 spg. Last night’s wonderful romp over the Cavs was the first game this season in which Butler didn’t tally a steal, and he’s actually dropped off a bit lately with just two in his last three games. But he had notched at least two in every game before that, so it’s simply regressing towards the mean. Butler is also becoming a monster on the boards. Anyone who watched the playoff series against the Cavs last spring knows what a force he can be, as he averaged 10.5 in the series including 20 in Game 6. He’s reached double digits in three of his last five games and his average of 7 per game this season is no fluke. Stojakovic has absolutely no value in any of these categories. His assists are well below average for a swingman, and his usually decent rebounding is way down this year. You also can’t count on him for any blocks or steals.
Edge: Butler

Durability/Consistency
Stojakovic has missed 10+ games in each of the past two seasons and has only one season of 80+ games in his career. He’s managed to avoid any serious injuries and is just 29 years old, so he should continue to be OK. It wouldn’t be surprising for him to miss a few games here of there, but despite the past couple of tumultuous seasons he should be a safe bet for 75 games. Butler missed some time at the end of last year with a thumb injury that was a lot more serious than he let on, so give him points there for being a warriors. He’s another very safe bet for 75 games. But the difference is game-to-game performance. Stojakovic is a shooter, so when his shot is falling, things are going well, like Tuesday when he scored the Hornets first 20 points en route to 42. But that 42 is double his high game in any other contest, and he’s receiving a surprisingly low 32 mpg. It’s working for the 7-3 Hornets so far, so while that number may go up, it’s not wise to expect much more than 35 mpg from Stojakovic. Butler, meanwhile, is playing huge minutes for the Wizards. They have no choice, really, as he’s not just one of their main offensive weapons but also one of their best defenders and rebounders. Take away a blowout win against the Pacers and Butler has played at least 36 minutes in every other game and 39 minutes in six out of 10.
Edge: Butler

Verdict
When in doubt, go with the minutes. Stojakovic can singlehandedly put you in contention in 3s, but he’s really a glorified specialist in that category these days. He doesn’t get to the line enough to make much of a difference there and he’s not an impact scorer. This would be different if he was still getting those 38-40 mpg he received during his heyday in Sacramento, but that’s in the past. Butler is the one getting those minutes now and it helps him rack up numbers even on most off nights. Coming into the season, Stojakovic was seen as slightly more valuable; he went #44 in our league while Butler was #54, and most rankings had Stojakvoic roughly one round better than Butler. But the current player rater doesn’t like, and Butler is at #36 while Stojakovic languishes at #66. It should tighten up, but Butler is the pick.

Transaction Reaction

November 19

Pickup: Jeff Foster
Drop: Kenny Thomas

Foster entered the starting lineup on Saturday, but it might be a short-term move. But then again, it might not be. Al Harrington was playing out of position in the middle, although really you could say Jermaine O’Neal was manning the middle. In either way, Rick Carlisle likes Foster and wants to get him more minutes. It’s plausible the Pacers could go with a Tinsley/Granger/Harrington/O’Neal/Foster starting five, but that seems more like a Phil Jackson sort of move. You know what you’re going to get with Foster, and I consider that a good thing. Foster is a noted rebounding machine, and only Reggie Evans, Dwight Howard and Carlos Boozer are grabbing boards at a better rate than Foster this season. Even if he plays only 20 minutes, he’s got a good chance to grab 10 boards. But do know that’s all he’ll give you. He’s never blocked shots or scored, although he does grab a decent number of steals for a center. If you’re shorthanded at center and just want to get some boards, Foster seems to be a fine option for the time being. Thomas has just dropped off miserably in the past few games, with Corliss Williamson taking most of his minutes.

November 18
Pickup: Jorge Garbajosa
Drop: Paul Millsap

Here’s your new hot pick up, and with good reason. Hey, anyone who receives around 40 minutes in back-to-back games is worth grabbing, without question. So what do we know about the Garbage Man? Well, not a whole lot. He’s been starting at center but clearly isn’t your traditional center and doesn’t qualify there in most leagues. He’s likely to have more 3s than blocks this season, which certainly isn’t what you’d expect from a big man. John Hollinger guessed that he might have trouble adapting to the longer NBA 3-point line, and so far that’s proved true as he’s connected on just 4-of-24. But he’s got active hands, notching 6 steals in his two starts, and he should get decent boards by virtue of being one of the taller players out there on a team that plays an up-tempo pace. Asking him to be the next Mehmet Okur is a bit much, as Okur is a legit top 40 player, and you never know exactly what Sam Mitchell’s going to do. But Rasho Nesterovic is a stiff and Garbajosa fits the Raptors scheme much better. Keep your expectations in check, but there’s a good chance he won’t be appearing back on your free agent list any time soon.

November 17
Pickup: Alonzo Mourning
Drop: Kwame Brown

An obvious pickup with Shaq out for at least a month. Mourning hasn’t looked the same as he did last year when Shaq went down early, but if Saturday night’s rejection of a Josh Smith dunk was any indication, he could be getting into the swing of things now. Mourning should be worth starting in basically all leagues as there’s unlikely to be anyone as strong as him in blocks, except for perhaps my boy Jermaine O’Neal. He’s not going to score much and he’ll miss a bunch of free throws, but put him in your lineup and enjoy the swats.

Pickup: Erick Dampier
Drop: Channing Frye

That was quite a game for Erica on Friday night, but his output on Saturday night is what you should expect going forward. Those 22 points from Friday are very likely to be his season high, he’s 6-for-16 from the line on the rest of the season, and while he has a fine chance to stay in the 52-54% from the field range, that 69% isn’t going to last. He’s a fine C2 plug-in while he’s hot, but we’ve seen these kinds of flashes from him before.

Good news is most teams have a full schedule this coming week.  Great news is I’m gonna gain 10 pounds and love it on Thursday.  Greatest news is all the deals at Best Buy on Black Friday.
Ok, back to basketball:

Four games: Charlotte, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Golden State, Indiana, LA Clippers, Memphis, Miami, New Jersey, New Orleans, New York, Orlando, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Portland, San Antonio, Seattle, Toronto, Utah, Washington.

Three Games: Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Houston, LA Lakers, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Sacramento.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:

Danny Granger, F: The second-year forward out of New Mexico is starting (30 mpg) and contributing across the board (13/5/2 w/ 2 treys and about 1 block/steal over his last five games).  With four games next week you probably want to start Granger over guys like Childress or Ricky Davis.

Andris Biedrins, F/C: Latvian sensation and FBB fave, Andris Biedrins, has been a welcome addition to many fantasy teams lately.  Averaging 12 and 12 with 2.3 blocks and 74%FG this week, Andris logged a whopping 43 minutes last night (w/ Murphy out).  Biedrins is Don Nelson’s unquestioned starting center right now and should definitely be in your fantasy lineup for four games next week.

Tyronn Lue, PG: It took no time at all for Speedy to hurt himself again.  The high-priced offseason acquisition is looking more and more like a mistake. Meanwhile, former Wizard Tyronn Lue is stepping up – averaging 35 mpg over his last four and should be a nice source of points, threes, and assists while Claxton is out.

Reggie Evans, PF: In what seemed inevitable, K-Mart has gone under… the knife that is.  Primary backup, Nene, is still day-to-day with a bruised knee, but won’t be fully recovered until 2007.  This leaves the big and boring Reggie Evans to clean the glass in Denver, and that’s about all he’ll do for you.  He won’t score more than 7 points a night (Carmelo and Andre Miller are more likely to combine for 70), but if you need rebounds you should embrace him.  If/when Camby goes down, Evans will probably haul in 18 boards a game for some time.

Sit ‘em down:

Zaza Pachulia, F/C: Zaza may be my favorite European Center (next to that hostel I stayed at in Amsterdam), but he has his limits.  After a strong start, Za-Pa has slowed down a bit recently.  He’s still got plenty of value as a #2 center, but with the Hawks only playing three games you may want to look elsewhere this week…  perhaps a Wilcox or Frye would be better.

Ben Wallace, F/C: Obviously on the downside of his career, Big Ben’s clock is ticking.  These days, instead of dominating his strong categories (boards, steals, blocks) and not hurting you elsewhere, Wallace is merely getting by in those cats while hurting you with just 5 ppg and hitting only 40% of his shots from the floor this season.  One block per game already has his owners frustrated this year.  I hate to say it, but someone like Biedrins would be a better guy to plug in your lineup this week.

Celtics Point Guards: Why do these guys (Telfair, Rondo, West) remind me of the NY Jets backfield?  Maybe because the coach has decided to use three different players to do one man’s job.  Sure one of them may hit paydirt any given Sunday (or weeknight), but they are not worth your time until someone earns Doc Rivers’ trust (and consistently get 30+ minutes).  Hopefully the situation will work itself out soon, giving fantasy owners at least one player with some value.  Until then, they all should be riding some fantasy pine.

Also: Props (so far) to those owners who took a chance on injury-risks Baron Davis, Jason Kidd, and Emeka Okafor.  Those guys are playing out of their minds and are good sell high candidates; or perhaps just great picks that you should be happy with.  What you think?

Enjoy the turkey and the games.

With the season a few weeks old, it’s now clear that some players are overperforming while others are underperforming. So, of course, this leads to inevitable buy-low, sell-high columns. And those can surely be helpful, although to be honest, we here at FBB (and we’d think many of you out there) play with folks who have sort of caught on to the whole buy-low, sell-high thing, and probably know better than to accept that Wally Szczerbiak for Tracy McGrady deal you offered. We won’t get into buy-fake-high, sell-fake-low too much right now – if you’re not familiar here’s a column I wrote about that strategy two years ago. We’ll probably come up with a list of “buy fake high” and “sell fake low” candidates soon, by the way.

Instead, we’ll deal stick with the plain old sell high theme. I’m not at all saying that you should only stick with “buy fake high” or “sell fake low,” it’s just that everything to do with fantasy sports is about value and perceived value. Sometimes you just have to simply sell high. But it’s tough. It’s tough to trade away a player that’s playing well for you. And other times it’s not just tough, it’s really tough. I’m talking about when you’ve got a player that was a guy you really loved coming into the season and you nabbed him late in your draft and he’s playing out of his mind. Like, say, (start Ali G voice) my main man (end) Kevin Martin. The best way to succeed in fantasy is to remove any sort of emotional attachment, but that’s a lot easier said than done. One of the best things about fantasy is getting that sleeper pick right and then rubbing it in the face of everyone in your league all year. Right? I’ve watched most of the Kings games this year and I love Kevin Martin. He might be my favorite non-Wizard in the league right now. And I’m supposed to trade him because he’s putting up better numbers than he’s going to finish with?

Well, maybe. Look, even I know that Martin is going to slow down. I do believe it will only be a bit – this guy is like the new Rip Hamilton, but with more 3s and steals – but if someone were to offer me, say, Jason Terry, I’m probably going to have to make that deal. But you should never make a trade because it seems like the “right thing to do.” I only make deals when I feel good about it from all sides and if I feel that it undoubtedly makes my team better. If you’re stuck in the bottom of the standings then you have more reason to make a riskier deal, like BV was talking about yesterday, but hey, we don’t find ourselves in the bottom of the standings. Is it wrong to hold on to a guy because he’s your guy. Well, maybe, if that’s the reason. But Martin still doesn’t have much name value in a trade as MIKE said in a comment yesterday. In order to sell high, you have to actually get someone to buy high. So basically, if you’re having trouble getting rid of “your” guy, don’t feel too bad. You might very well be better off keeping him anyway. And for the record, K-Mart is for real. I will be very surprised if he doesn’t end the season in the top 50 on the player rater, and if he starts getting even more confident from long range, watch out.

Transaction Reaction seemed to get a positive, uh, reaction, when I did it on Monday, so I might just start tacking it on to my columns on Monday and Thursday from now on. Although it’s not quite a tack on when it’s twice as long as the column. And I might run out of things to say about Stephen Jackson when he’s dropped and picked up every few days. So we’ll see. It’s here for now.

November 15
Pickup: Fred Jones
Drop: Travis Outlaw
Might as well go with the starter, I suppose. The line Jones put up on Tuesday was pretty much what you can expect from him. In 35 minutes he was good for 11/2/2 with 2 3s, a steal and a block on 3-of-9 shooting. In other words, no great shakes. Jones doesn’t do anything particularly well, his best category will be 3s, even if he doesn’t take 8 every night like he did Tuesday. He was a fantasy superstar for a week or so after the brawl in 2004, regularly playing 40 minutes and being one of the featured weapons on offense, but that’s not the case right now. He’s worth a spot in deep leagues, but doesn’t have much upside. Outlaw does have some upside, but isn’t getting the starting nod with Brandon Roy out. Darius Miles’ season-ending knee surgery might make him a more interesting pickup later in the season, though. Outlaw can block shots, and he added 3 steals in 27 minutes last night. He has all the makings of another swingman whose offensive game is a work in progress but can fill up the hustle categories. It’s possible Nate McMillian will give him a chance to start at some point, but as Jarrett Jack owners found out the past few nights, the Blazers are still a very frustrating team to deal with for fantasy purposes.

Pickup: Jamal Crawford
Drop: Gary Payton
For one night, at least, it looked like the return of Steve Francis wasn’t going to bother Crawford, but then last night was another reminder of why it’s just never a good idea to have bench players in your starting lineup. Francis was awful again, but Renaldo Balkman was playing out of his mind against a clearly uninterested Wizards team that was still reeling from a tough home OT loss to the Nets on Sunday. So Balkman ate into Crawford’s minutes and Jamal finished with just 4/1/6 in 24 minutes. Still, I don’t think this is a terrible pickup. Francis could go down again, or he could move to the bench. Crawford produces when he gets minutes and he usually finds a way to get minutes, often because he stays healthy and other people don’t. He’s a decent use of a bench spot right now, but can be let go if something more interesting comes along. Payton’s managed to have a small bit of value so far because he hangs out around the three-point line so much these days. But with Jason Williams coming back within the week and Payton combining for 8/4/4 in his last two games, it’s a fine time to say goodbye. If (when?) Williams goes down again, Payton doesn’t even look to be a quality option, except perhaps in deep H2H leagues in weeks he has four games.

Pickup: Darko Milcic (waiver claim)
Drop: Stephen Jackson
The owner with the #2 waiver priority used his claim here. I don’t really blame him; I put in a claim as well (I had #9 at the time). I’m still not at all sold on Darko this season, as I think that there will be plenty of outings like last night’s 4-point, 4-turnover, 5-foul, 13-minute performance. But hey, you’ve got bench spots for a reason, right? All leagues have different number of bench spots – we’ve got three – but I usually like to use at least one on a solid, low-upside guy that I can plug into the lineup in case of an injury and use another on a high-upside guy who might have value later in the season. And Darko’s just about the perfect example of the latter. Tony Battie hasn’t done much this season, but then again he is Tony Battie. They aren’t expecting him to do much, and the Magic are winning, so no change is imminent. But if something happens and Darko gets the call, he should at the very least be a major force in blocks. And that’s worth taking a chance on. Jackson seems like he’ll be a regular in Transaction Reaction. He’s actually a pretty good example of the low-upside plug in guy to keep on your bench and I’m sure he’ll be picked up the next time he scores 18 points.

November 14
Pickup: Andres Nocioni
Drop: Earl Watson
A quick pickup after it was announced that Nocioni might be in the starting lineup on Tuesday night. Snooze and lose in our league. It wasn’t a very successful return to the starting lineup for Nocioni, though, as he totaled 11 and 5 with 2 3s before fouling out in 27 minutes. As expected, the swapping out of P.J. Brown and Ben Gordon for Nocioni and Chris Duhon had minimal effect on actual PT. Brown and Duhon still saw right around 20 minutes, Gordon got his 35, while Nocioni hovered right under 30. Nocioni’s complete lack of steals and blocks this season is pretty alarming. He’s never been particularly strong in either, but three combined through seven games is tough. I’m sure it’ll even out eventually. Still, Nocioni is a good lesson in not letting playoff stats influence next year’s draft. He was playing out of his mind against the Heat, but even Scott Skiles will tighten his rotation come playoff time. Nocioni averaged 38.3 mpg in that series. That’s just not happening this year. He should become startable if he keeps his starting spot, but he’s probably best served as one of those plug in bench guys. Earl Watson is complaining again. It’s what he does. He wanted more PT in Memphis. So he signed with Denver. He wanted more PT there. So they traded him to Seattle. Now he wants more PT. Well, he doesn’t deserve it and he’s not going to get it. Luke Ridnour is playing great ball and he’s the future there, so Watson is nothing more than a solid backup who would put up decent numbers if the guy in front of him got injured. There are a lot of guys like that in the league.

Pickup: Stephen Jackson
Drop: Eddy Curry
You can see how long Jackson lasted here. Can we even call Curry a disappointment at this point? I don’t think so. I mean, he gives you around 14 and 7 on solid shooting from the field, bad shooting from the line, and absolutely nothing else. It wouldn’t be surprising to see one of the more center-desperate teams in the league pick him up after he clears waivers, but that’s why you don’t want to be a center-desperate team. The team that dropped Curry already had Chris Wilcox, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Zaza Pachulia, Andris Biedrins, Channing Frye and now Darko. That’s six center-eligible players. Curry makes no sense for that team. 

Pickup: Delonte West (waiver)
Drop: Antoine Wright
A waiver claim for West? Well, it’s part of this owner’s strategy. He had the third pick in the draft, giving him a waiver priority of 10. He used that on Leandro Barbosa after the season’s first game, when all non-drafted players were still on waivers, knocking him down to the lowest waiver priority. So now his thinking is that if there’s ever a player he likes that gets dropped, there’s no harm in using the waiver priority to grab him. I actually like this strategy plenty, as waiver priorities are more often than not saved for a player that just doesn’t show up. It makes more sense to hold onto it in AL or NL only baseball leagues since you might have new players come into the league, but there’s not going to be anybody added to the game here. All that said, West seems an odd choice. He’s back to the bench now that Szczerbiak’s ass is better and after a solid outing on Monday, he had one of those “that’s why you don’t mess with bench players” games last night. It will be interesting to see what happens with the Celtics if (when) Doc Rivers gets axed. Wright has disappointed people who have had him in the lineup for the past few games, and it’s not for lack of opportunity as he’s seen between 35 and 38 minutes in each of those three games. But he hasn’t hit a single 3 and hasn’t really looked for his offense.

November 13
Pickup: Channing Frye
Drop: Jamal Crawford
Frye’s turned it on a bit in the last two games and his starting job appears safe, but David Lee is still clearly outplaying him and that hurts Frye’s value. With Lee deserving at least 25 minutes per game, that’s going to make it very tough for Frye to see much more than that and the 28 and 27 he’s received the last two games. Lee makes a lot more sense for the Knicks right now, anyway. Frye’s pretty much a jump shooter, and he loves to shoot. Just like most people on the Knicks, except for Lee (and Balkman). So when Lee’s out there, he really adds another element to the Knicks attack, and he’s just a great rebounder. So those in deep leagues that held on to Frye or picked up him recently, you have to be encouraged by recent developments. But he’s still nowhere near a safe start and belongs on benches until he strings together consecutive strong – not decent, but strong – outings.

Pickup: Chucky Atkins
Drop: Darko Milicic
A gutsy move that at least in the very short term looks pretty genius. And by very short term I mean last night. We already went over Darko’s horrid night, but how about Chucky Atkins exploding for 27 points on 10-of-11 shooting after going scoreless in the first half? What was most surprising was the way he went about it, attempting only two shots from downtown. There was a game early last year when Atkins was still on the Wizards when was unconscious from three-point land and led the Wiz to a win in Detroit. Tonight he was picking apart the Sacramento D. Still, despite starting he played just 24 minutes to Damon Stoudamire’s 34 off the bench, and I have this feeling Chucky’s not going to average a point per minute most nights. Call it a hunch. He’s worth consideration while he’s starting but has yet to top 26 minutes in a game this year that hasn’t gone to triple overtime. The Grizzlies are off to a predictably terrible start and there could be a shakeup over there. If Mike Fratello leaves, it could leave the PT situation for just about everyone up in the air, so pay attention.

Pickup: Matt Harpring
Drop: Alonzo Mourning
I like Harpring a lot, but at this point in his career he’s much more valuable to his real team than your fantasy team. He will definitely see a bump in playing time with Andrei Kirilenko out, but Ronnie Brewer certainly didn’t do anything to make Jerry Sloan take him out of the starting lineup with his performance the other night. Being able to bring Harpring and Derek Fisher off the bench gives the Jazz two proven veterans, which is something you know Jerry Sloan loves. But Harpring is a guy who is unlikely to see more than 30 mpg coming off the bench and won’t give you much at all in 3s, steals and blocks. He’s an incredible efficient, high-percentage scorer, and that’s where his value’s always been, but he’ll need every game to be like his last two in order to be worth starting in most leagues. As you well know, we just don’t trust bench players, not when there are likely more reliable options out there. Mourning was dropped right before Shaq sat out again. He hasn’t been nearly as good this season as he was filling in for Shaq last season, but teams in need of a quick fix at center might as well give him a shot, although it’s hard to tell how long Shaq will be out for.