Worth Your Time?

It’s early. Very early. Repeat that to yourself very often over the next week. Hell, the next two weeks. Don’t be concerned or thrilled with any of your top players yet. Gilbert Arenas and Chris Bosh will be fine. Luke Ridnour hasn’t exorcised Earl Watson yet. Just leave all of your top picks alone and let them be. That said, at the bottom of your roster, the first couple of weeks are a great time to make moves. Last year, studs such as Boris Diaw and Mike James were likely plucked off the free agent list in the very early goings. So without too many trends to really talk about yet, I figured I’d use our league as a good example of a competitive 12-team league and talk about some players who were picked up yesterday, and what their chances are for continued success.

Hakim Warrick – Ah, triple overtime. The two sweetest words in the language for fantasy owners. Warrick was only around for the majority of the first two last night, but it still meant he saw 42 minutes of action. So without the OT, think of it closer to 33, which is still a nice number for Pau Gasol’s fill in. The 22 and 12 is very nice, but that 4-of-12 from the line is straight up brutal. You have to think that will improve at least a bit, you also have to remember that the Grizzlies weren’t just missing Gasol last night, they were also missing Stromile Swift. Swift will get his minutes when he’s healthy enough, and while some of them might come at the expense of Jake Tsakalidis, some of them will also come at the expense of Warrick. The Grizzlies gave it a valiant effort last night, but the fact remains that they still lost. At home. Against the Knicks. I have a feeling minutes will shift on a nightly basis on this team, making just about everyone a shaky fantasy option.

Anthony Parker – In another situation, Parker would have had a lot more hype coming into the season. We can get infatuated with foreigners, but usually when they’re young, not when they are 31 years old. Even if he was proven as one of the best players in the EuroLeague. If Parker signed with a big market team, it might have made more of a splash. But instead he signed with Toronto, where it’s easy to get lost in the shuffle. It also wasn’t clear whether he’d have a starting job this year or not. Well, he won the SG job ahead of Fred Jones and had quite a debut last night, going for 22/3/2 with 2 steals and 2 3s in 36 minutes. Sarunas Jasikevicius had a difficult time adjusting to the NBA after coming over in a similar situation last year, so don’t get too hyped on Parker just yet. But it’s always nice to come out of the game with a starting job, so Parker’s ahead of the curve there.

Sean May – With Primoz Brezec out for a couple of weeks because he’s got, uh, he’s, uh … a bit sleepy? … the Bobcats shifted Emeka Okafor to center and plugged in May as the starting PF. May got a solid 33 minutes of PT and did about what was to be expected. He hit 5-of-11 shots, grabbed 10 boards and did little else. May’s undersized at PF and isn’t the most athletic player, so he’ll never block too many shots, which will limit his fantasy upside. There’s certainly a place for points/boards guys on fantasy rosters, and May’s a capable scorer and rebounder, but he needs to shoot better than the 41% he did last year. Still, he could have some long term value. I always take a worst-case scenario when it comes to injuries in this league, especially mysterious illnesses like the one Brezec is suffering from. He could very well be out for just two weeks and return to his starting job, but it’s not something I’d consider a given.

Etan Thomas – I obviously watched the entire Wizards game, so I can give a pretty good report on Thomas. (By the way, this game tonight was a perfect example of why it would have been a terrible idea for me to have Gilbert Arenas on my team. I’d be so miserable.) Anyway, Thomas was a legit force inside, hitting all 7 of his shots, being aggressive on the offensive boards and swatting away a couple of shots. But Eddie Jordan went away from him in the second half and Thomas finished with only 22 minutes. I like Jordan, but I’ve never completely understood his substitution patterns, and this game was another example. The Cavs are a very big team that thrives on the offensive glass, yet the Wizards played with a small lineup for much of the second half. Whatever. Thomas won’t always be as efficient as he was last night, and until it looks like he’s going to break 30 minutes a night – something I don’t see happening any time soon – he’s best left on the free agent list.

01
tim
November 2nd, 2006 12:38 pm

Posted before under wrong one…

ok question

Someone dropped granger…
I have the number one waiver priority

So…

should I get him…

PG: Paul
SG: Redd
G: A. Miller
SF: Butler
F: J. Smith
PF: Boozer
C: Ming
C: Kristic
util: felton
util: prince

bench: Gay, Bynum and Mobley

I know i need threes and blocks… but I just think that granger will have a good year…
so I think i will drop Bynum… as he will not crack my center line-up save for an injury… although I suppose right now he might be potentially better than Kristic… but I like Kristic as a back up center (I know no blocks - bhut solid percentages and I have Josh Smith…)

02
DM
November 2nd, 2006 1:09 pm

Depending on how many quality big men are sitting out there, I’d consider dumping Bynum for him. But you have pretty similar players to Granger in Prince and Gay, and I’m not sure I’d use my #1 claim so early. It seems like you are in a fairly shallow league, so some other good stuff might hit the waiver wire, especially once injuries hit.

03
tim
November 2nd, 2006 2:17 pm

I agree I will try to get him after he hits the free agent pool in a couple of days for Bynum…

Maybe no one will jump on him after his mediocre opening game…

04
Rook
November 2nd, 2006 8:50 pm

Exactly some of the undrafted players I was wondering about. Another is Barbosa, who has played over 35 minutes in both games so far after averaging 28 last season. Worth our time?

05
bv
November 2nd, 2006 9:17 pm

barbosa will need to show me some consistency before i pick him up - we all know he’s capable of big things, we just don’t know how reliable he can be …. yet.

06
bublitchki
November 2nd, 2006 9:50 pm

Any thoughts on Marcus Williams?

The Nets rookie PG /SG had a strong preseason as well as a pretty nice regular season debut (7 pts, 8 reb, 3 ast in 23 mins) Article in NY Daily News today said Nets plan is to play him about 30 mins/game (15 mins while Kidd rests + 15 mins alongside Kidd)

One more good game and I might just pull the trigger (I have a particular weakness for SG eligible PGs) But I’m curious to hear your takes as I know how dialed in to the whole PG thing you are.

07
mark
November 2nd, 2006 10:28 pm

I have been reading your blog since the beginning of last fantasy season, but this is my first time commenting. I just want to say: Great job covering fantasy basketball! Very insightful!

I wanted some opinions on my team that I drafted tonight. The league is standard 12 team, 13 players, 9 cat (Turnovers count). I had the 8th pick

1. E. Brand PF
2. R. Allen SG
3. R. Lewis SF
4. M. Camby C
5. C. Kaman C
6. D. West PF
7. L. Ridnour PG
8. M. Miller SG,SF (mem)
9. D. Williams PG (utah)
10. D. Granger SF,PF
11. S. Livingston PG
12. D. Marshall SF,PF
13. K. Martin SG (sac)

What are some glaring/hidden weaknesses with that lineup? Should I drop someone to pick up JR Smith (FA)? Where did I reach?

My thought process going into the draft is that there are lots of value PG late in the draft that I can afford to focus on well rounded wing/big man during rounds 1-7. Also, I have to admit that BV’s Draft Recap influenced my early decisions very much. Just like you BV, I took a risk at 4 with Camby, after 3 safe picks. I then reached with Kaman, as a reaction to mitigate the risk (by that pick only other C options were Sammy and Tyson). I reached for Livingston too, due to just missing out on Jaret Jack (hehe I wanted your sleeper). And I kinda regret not being brave enough to stick to my plan of not picking PGs through 1-7, picking Ridnour at 7 and watching Shane Battier go right after (hehe I did it again).

08
bv
November 3rd, 2006 6:53 am

mark, you certainly got some great steals there, particularly williams at 9 and martin at 13, and obviously i like your early strategy because it mirrored mine! my main concern, though, would still be center. unless brand eventually qualifies at C, you’ve only got 2 centers and one of them is a major risk. At this point i’d drop marshall and start going after C’s like Bynum or whoever gets hot (elson?) just to get some depth.

09
Nelson
November 3rd, 2006 8:53 am

Factoring Kwame Brown’s injury and his inevitable return into the starting line up, who is a better pick up right now for pts/rebs/blocks? Francisco Elson or Andrew Bynum?

Thanks guys.

10
DM
November 3rd, 2006 8:59 am

Marcus Williams … I’m always skeptical of rookies, as a general rule. It’s pretty easy to predict what a player will do given a certain number of minutes, so I tend to shy away from those few players where we don’t actually know, and always want to project the best. Williams isn’t on a roster in my 12×13 league, and that seems right to me. As skeptical as I am of rookies, I’m the same with bench players. It looks like he could be a beefed up version of Earl Boykins — more 3s and more boards — which would give him some slight value in very deep leagues. Since he’s guaranteed tons of value if Kidd gets hurt, that could make him worth a bench spot now.

I’d stick with Bynum, although I wouldn’t be too enthusiastic about either option. That center position on the Spurs hasn’t offered much since the Admiral hung it up. Elson will be much more valuable to the Spurs than your fantasy team.

11
Nelson
November 3rd, 2006 9:01 am

Thanks DM

12
November 4th, 2006 12:14 am

good point about the grizzlies players having shaky value due to shifting minutes.
Game 1: rudy gay plays 38 minutes and has a great game
Game 2: Rudy plays 13 minutes and does absolutely nothing

I know it’s early, and Gay’s got a lot of upside, but i’m considering dropping him for Jarret Jack - whose playing time should be consistent all year - he played 44 min in game 1 and 38 min in game 2. plus he’s actually getting 3’s and stls this year.
Should I drop the high-upside Gay for the safer Jack?

13
steve
November 4th, 2006 4:39 am

Who would you guys take between Dunleavy, Jack or Delonte West?

14
DM
November 4th, 2006 6:49 am

Gay’s a rookie on a team without a clearly defined rotation. Jack’s a starting PG who averaged 41 mpg in the first two contests. Seems like a no-brainer to me, as long as you aren’t already starting four PGs.

And I’d take Jack over Dunleavy and West, as well.

15
November 4th, 2006 9:33 am

Well I missed my chance on jack. He got snapped up this morning.

In retrospect I probably should’ve done it. The reason I hesitated is that I’m already starting 3 pgs (not including pg/sg B.Roy) so I didn’t really need more PG stats. However, I bet Jack will have good trade value if he keeps up his playing time.

My problem right now is that I want to be active on the waiver wire, but I don’t have anyone I really want to drop. Milicic and Gay have been my two worst guys, but I want to patient with them. Everyone else has been too good to drop…

Here’s my team:
PG Arenas
SG Kevin Martin
G J.Nelson
SF R.Lewis
PF David West
F R.Jefferson
C Bosh
C Mohammed
Util B.Roy
Util Deron Williams
Bn Krysitc
Bn Milicic
Bn R.Gay

12 teams, roto, 9 cats, pts,rebs,ast,stl,blk,3’s,FG%,FT%,TO

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