It’s pretty easy to get over-excited about early-season performances from veterans who are sure to return to form (Rasheed Wallace, anyone?). But rookies who get off to a hot start are a totally different matter. Rookies play a completely different game in the NBA than they did in college, and right now we’re learning everything we can about these guys. With almost a full week under our belts I thought it would be a good idea to check in on our rookie class and see who’s worth playing, owning, or dumping.
Every Day Starters
Brandon Roy, G, POR - Three games in, Roy had been as good as advertised. He’d seen over 35 mpg and seemed to be only safe bet in the Portland backcourt. We can’t say it enough - here at FBB we preach minutes over everything else, and until last night, Roy was delivering in that category. Last night was a different story, as Roy had his first bad game, saw only 14 minutes and came out complaining of a sore Achilles. Be careful - just like we don’t know much about how these guys will look on the stat sheet, we also don’t know how well they play through injuries. Also Of concern is his lack of any defensive stats, but those should come. He’s shooting great from the stripe and at least attempting shots from long range. If healthy, Roy is a must-start despite his FG% woes, and is living up to his ROY hype so far.
Adam Morrison, F, CHA - Remember what we said about minutes? Morrison and Roy are the only guys seeing over 30 mpg (actually, the only ones seeing over 25) and it’s no coincidence that we can’t recommend sitting them. Morrison is what we thought he would be - an all-offense, no-anything else kinda guy. Still, he’s looked comfortable from three point range and should be good for at least 15 and 2 threes a night, and you can’t sit numbers like that.
Rudy Gay, F, MEM - I know, right now Gay is not in the same class as the other two guys. Plus, I have him on my squad so there’s no way I can be objective. Gay is going to be very much like Charlie Villanueva last year - he is certainly going to have his down games, but you just have to start him every night. Trying to guess which games he’ll have 4 blocks and which ones he’ll have 4 points is just going to be impossible. But his ability to contribute in both defensive categories as well as from long range means you can’t bench him. He’ll have his ups and downs but in the end he’ll average out just fine. I hope.
Worth A Bench Spot
Let me take a second to talk about bench spots. If you have a rookie on your bench, it had better be because you forsee him being a fantasy starter sometime soon. Guys like Andrea Bargnani are just too far away. Guys like Marcus Williams need established starters to get hurt. And guys like Ty Thomas just won’t see the consistent minutes they need to be valuable. Here are guys worth a bench spot now because it’s realistic to think they’ll have value in the near future:
Rajon Rondo, G, BOS - Rondo may not be worth playing right now but he’s come out of the blocks pretty well and could be earning himself a starting spot sometime soon. It’s not like Sebastian Telfair has a death grip on it. Rondo has so far reminded me of TJ Ford, but with a better spine.
Craig Smith, F, MIN - 10, 16, 22. That’s a minutes trend that I liked over his first three games. He fell to 14 last last night but that looked to be foul-trouble related. He’s obviously doing something that the T-Wolves like, and who am I to argue? I’m not sold that he’ll have value down the line, but he’s certainly worth a bench spot now until he proves otherwise.
Worth Keeping an Eye On
Jorge Garbajosa, F, TOR - Garbajosa has been a disaster from the floor so far, but still has seen 20 mpg and has shown some positive signs - he looks to be a hawk when it comes to steals, and he’s not averse to threes. If he starts shooting better he could start earning more minutes. He’s likely sitting on your waiver wire, but the second he has a good game he’ll be worth picking up.
LaMarcus Aldridge, F, POR - As Joel Przybilla and Jamaal Magloire fight to stay on the bench, Aldridge will be given every opportunity to grab minutes at C when he returns. Again, not worth a spot on your roster yet, but upon his return? Perhaps.
