I’ve been noticing a trend in the box scores lately. You remember how there used to be a Center on the court at all times? Well not anymore. The “small lineup” can be viewed two ways. In one, you’re basically playing no center, and instead playing some combo of guards and forwards. In another, one of the forwards is the de facto “center” even though, really, they’re not playing like one, but somebody has to be in the middle and so that guy is the center.
Unfortunately, right now, it looks like for fantasy purposes you have to look at it the first way. That means that at an already-thin position, you’re seeing minutes disappearing into thin air right before your eyes. Let’s take a look at a couple of monday night’s games to show you what I mean:
Portland vs. LA Clippers: In this game, Portland was dealing with major injury issues at Center, and Jamaal Magloire was the only guy who qualified at C who was active. Nonetheless, Magloire only played 22 minutes, with the remaining 26 minutes available at C disappearing. For the Clippers, Chris Kaman started at C, and played 31 minutes. Paul Davis, Aaron Williams, and Zeljko Rebraca also qualify at C, but none played. Another 17 minutes up in smoke.
Sacramento vs. Minnesota: Sacramento, like Portland, is dealing with major injury issues at C. But rather than pulling a big man off the street and plugging him in the lineup, the Kings simply went small - and won. The Kings managed to play a full game without a single minute being logged by either of their qualified C’s, Vitaly Potapenko and Brad Miller. Granted, Shareef Abdur-Rahim or Kenny Thomas played “center” most of the game, but they won’t qualify there for at least another week or two. 48 available center minutes, none used. On the Timberwolves, Mark Blount played 34 minutes, while Mark Madsen, Eddie Griffin and Vin Baker stayed off the court. Another 12 minutes were lost into the center abyss.
So, in those two games, there were 192 available C minutes, and only 87 were used - a measley 45%. Now, this isn’t always the case - for example, Utah played Mehmet Okur and Carlos Boozer a combined 73 minutes. But it’s happening more often than not - Detroit gave it’s “only center” Nazr Mohammed just 18 minutes, while Dallas saw C’s DeSagana Diop and Erik Dampier combine for only 26.
So what does this phenomenon mean? More specifically, what does it mean for those of us in leagues where we start 2 centers? Well, obviously, the first thing it means is that centers could be even more tough to find if this trend continues. But you don’t need me to tell you that a good center is hard to find. Is there anything that this trend could do to HELP your team?
Well, yes - maybe. The other thing that it COULD mean is that maybe some other folks will start qualifying at C. I mean, there’s five guys out there on the court, right? And so someone has to qualify as a C, right? And qualifying at C gives a guy a boost in value. So let’s look at who COULD see a boost in value. If you think they’ll qualify at C eventually, that might make them more valuable to you than they are to their owners, who aren’t expecting that:
Already sweet, could be sweeter: Elton Brand, Rasheed Wallace, Dwight Howard, Drew Gooden, Udonis Haslem, Zack Randolph.
Just so-so now, but could be sweet: Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Al Jefferson, Kenon Martin.
This would make them worth owning, probably: Kenny Thomas, Shelden Williams, Antonio McDyess.
So, the question is, are these guys going to qualify at C? Given how arbitrary positions are assigned in the fantasy world, it’s tough to say. I’m certainly not going to make any predictions. But it’s definitely going to be a trend worth watching this season.