We’re just over a week into the season and the injuries are starting to pile up. Plenty of players who are owned in almost all leagues have missed games over the past few days; some of these are long-term, some short-tern, some unknown. Where there’s injury there’s opportunity, but it’s not always the same type of opportunity. Let’s take a look at some of the different types of situations that arise when a player goes down and some recent examples. If you can identify what type it’s going to be when an injury hits, it can help you quickly decide whether to make any roster moves.
Marginal to Certain
Last night showed two fine examples of players that already had decent roles on their teams, but really came through when seeing some extra time. In New York, Steve Francis’s ankle injury opened the door for Jamal Crawford to enter the starting lineup. Crawford had been ice cold to start the season (10-for-47, 21%) but had still played at least 27 minutes in three of four games. He’s always been a terrible shooter, but that hasn’t stopped him from having plenty of value when getting the minutes. Last night he certainly got the minutes, and put up one of the best lines of the year so far with 35/6/7 with 4 3s and 2 steals (and 7 turnovers) in 43 minutes. Crawford was on the verge of having value before last night; if he kept getting around 30 minutes, he was going to start putting up some numbers. But as long as Francis is out, Crawford goes from being a shaky option to a sure thing. Not all games will be like last night, of course, but Crawford is the type of player who thrives with consistent minutes. He was out of the starting lineup for much of last year but still put up some decent number, but remember what happened when he started the last 11 games in April?
Ryan Gomes hadn’t been able to build on his second-half breakout from last season despite starting two of the Celtics first three games and seeing 30 minutes in the other. He was on fantasy radars because he was one of those players who had proven he could produce and was in that 25-30 minute netherworld. But with Al Jefferson out for at least 3 weeks after an appendectomy, Gomes should get a chance to put up numbers similar to what he did last season. Jefferson was playing some solid ball in the first three games and his minutes were slowly climbing from 22 to 28 to 30. He was on the verge of having some value, but now that should be transferred to Gomes, who certainly disappoint last night. It was probably one of the least remarkable triple-doubles in recent memory – 10/12/10 on 5-of-12 and 0-for-1 shooting with just 1 block to add – but it was a triple-double nonetheless. Gomes saw 38 minutes last night (thanks for those five extras, overtime), but 33 minutes sounds about right for as long as Jefferson is out. Expect Kenny Thomas-type numbers – solid points, boards and percentages. And speaking of Thomas, there’s another situation where two borderline guys – Thomas and Shareef Abdur-Rahim – become instantly start-worthy with the absence of Brad Miller. (Remember when I said I had an ominous feeling about Brad Miller right before the season started? Don’t say I didn’t warn you.)
None to Ton
There wasn’t much reason for Alonzo Mourning to be on any roster at the beginning of the season, unless you play in an especially deep league. He played 26 total minutes in the season’s first two games and has always been a 15-20 minute player when coming off the bench. But once Shaquille O’Neal went down with a bruised knee, he became a no-brainer pickup. This could be one of those classic “day-to-day” injuries that ends up lingering for a while. O’Neal also went down after two games last year – it was a more definitive injury that time – and Mourning stepped in to start the next 19 contests, in which he blocked a staggering 74 shots. His first start this year was a 15-minute clunker, but Tuesday against Seattle was what should more normal when he starts. He put up 13 and 6 with 4 blocks on 5-of-7 and 3-of-6 shooting, a very typical outing for Mourning in 30 minutes. He’s going to hurt you at the line, but he should be absolutely dominant in blocks. But when Shaq comes back, ‘Zo will go back to being a player without much value at all.
Rich Get Richer
A day after being named the #1 Guy Back With a Vengeance by the Sports Guy, Kenyon Martin is going right back to the operating table for surgery on his other knee. No word yet on how long he’ll be out, but don’t expect Martin back any time soon. And now that he has two bad knees, it’s certainly possible that we’ve seen the best of Martin. Which wasn’t even that great to begin with. Good thing for Nuggets fans he’s not locked in for four more seasons at the league maximum. Oh, shit. In any case, it’s hard to see a single beneficiary in this situation. The Nuggets have a deep frontcourt – of admittedly fragile players – so they can handle a single loss up front better than most teams, and they’ll probably spread the extra minutes out. Eduardo Najera got the start last night and played 25 minutes, Nene played 19 and Joe Smith even got off the bench and played 15 minutes. If those numbers hold, it won’t be good for anyone. Fantasy owners might like to see Nene get a shot, since Najera’s never been a fantasy factor and Smith is over the hill. But Nene is still working his way back into shape and might not be ready for the increased role. Even if he is, George Karl might want to stick with the veteran Najera, for whatever those reasons are that coaches like to stick with veterans at the expense of possible fantasy contributors.
Unless Nene somehow works his way into 30+ minutes per game – and let’s be honest, it’s been since the end of 2004 since he’s really been any good – there’s production to be filled and it won’t be filled by the replacements. Where will it go? In cases like this, it often goes to the top and last night was only one game, but that’s what happened. Carmelo Anthony simply took on a bigger role, going for 37/6/8 while attempting 26 shots and 18 free throws in 40 minutes. The top players almost always get a least a trickle down when injuries hit anyway. In Dallas, Jerry Stackhouse looks to be taking Josh Howard’s starting role over the next couple weeks and should have a bit of value, but look for more games such as last night’s where Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry were clearly the top options. And man, that Dallas/Phoenix game tonight is going to be a couple of desperate teams, huh?
. i like parker quit a bit, maybe more than i should, he does more than randolph, imo.