Transaction Reaction

Here’s the first of what could be a new column. We play in what I think is a good league to use as a barometer of what’s going on in the fantasy landscape. It’s a very competitive 12-team league, the usual 10 starters, a three-person bench, 8 category cumulative roto, with a first-come, first-served free agent list. So this should give you an idea of who’s been picked up, dropped, traded, and thoughts on those players.

November 12
Pickup: LaMarcus Aldridge
Drop: Delonte West

Guess BV liked what he saw from Aldridge in the rookie’s debut last night against the Mavs. He looked like he belonged, that’s for sure, and was especially spry compared to the slow-footed Jamaal Magloire. They both played 19 minutes and it was Aldridge out there in crunch time against the defending Western Conference champs. He put up 10 and 8, with 6 of those boards coming on the offensive end. It was an impressive debut and he could be in for more PT, but that’s no sure thing. But it sure looks like Magloire’s days as a fantasy factor are over. He barely resembles the player who put up 14 and 10 in 03-04. We’ll see what happens when Joel Przybilla comes back, but this could be a situation that’s a fantasy disaster. More on West below.

Trade: Mike Bibby, Zaza Pachuila
Trade: Jameer Nelson, Charlie Villanueva

An interesting deal, here. From the looks of things, the team getting Bibby/Pachulia is the clear winner, since they got the best player in the deal (Bibby) and a quality big man in Pachulia. But I think it’s more even than that. I’m a big Bibby fan, and while his shooting will certainly improve, he’s dropped off enough over the past couple years that what once was a strength is now a slight weakness. Still, he’s a perfectly good bet for 20/3.5/6 with a bunch of 3s and some steals. Pachulia seems to be a reasonable sell high candidate at this point; he got off to a similarly fast start last year before dropping off a bit. Lorenzen Wright has been a non-factor and it could be until Marvin Williams returns that Pachulia’s value takes a serious hit. Solid #2 center. Jameer Nelson seems to have held off the first threat by Carlos Arroyo and has responded with three straight strong outings. I’m still a believer in him, although he’s as much a SG as a PG. Villanueva will have his off games, but like him this year. He loves to shoot and he gets his rebounds. Even if he doesn’t excel at 3s, steals or blocks, he should get enough to give him plenty of value as long as he maintains his 15 and 8, which I expect him to do, if not improve upon.

Pickup: Jerry Stackhouse
Drop: Stephen Jackson

Stackhouse has filled in quite nicely for Josh Howard so far, averaging 17/3/4.3 with 1 3 and a surprising 2.3 steals in a healthy 36.3 mpg. The Mavs have reeled off a couple of wins in a row with all of the offense going through Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry and Stackhouse, so feel free to get Stackhouse in your lineup and take advantage of this opportunity before Howard comes back. Howard won’t be in any danger of losing his starting job, so don’t worry if you have him. Jackson is an interesting drop. He’s always been a terrible shooter, but he won’t stay this bad. His looming court date could cost him some PT, but more often than not players avoid missing time in situations like these. Jackson could be the exception for all his past transgressions. On the court, Danny Granger could be surpassing Jackson as Indiana’s #3 option behind Jermaine O’Neal and Al Harrington, but Jackson should still be a low-upside source of 3s and steals, probably worth a bench spot in most leagues as long as he’s not incarcerated.

Pickup: Jeff Foster
Drop: Brent Barry

This team obviously feels the need to have a veteran white guy on its bench. Barry had a few hot games where he couldn’t miss from downtown, but he’s just not a fantasy option coming off the San Antonio bench. Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are the only Spurs who are reliable fantasy options, and that’s how it’s going to be all year unless they get devastated by injuries. That’s just how it is. Don’t bother with anyone else. Hard to understand why Foster was picked up. Even when Jermaine O’Neal was out Foster didn’t get the start, so that should mean he’s not even worth keeping an eye on. He’s certainly one of the best rate rebounders in the league, but you’ve gotta be real desperate to go after him.

November 11
Pickup: Stromile Swift
Drop: Eddie Jones

One Grizz for another Grizz. Swift started in the middle in just his second game back, and it wasn’t the greatest outing, but he’s worth a roster spot, especially at the expense of Eddie Jones who looks to have a whole utensil set sticking out of his back at this point. (I jettisoned him just a few days into the season, myself.) It would be silly to expect too much from Swift, but he did work his way up to 30 minutes last night. He has shown an ability to block shots, so he could have some value. But remember, this is his seventh season in the league. It would be surprising if he ever becomes more than an inconsistent #2 center for fantasy purposes. Jones might heat up as the season goes on, but he’s been horrible and has topped 30 minutes just twice in six games. He belongs on the free agent list. Mike Miller is the only member of the Grizzlies that can be trusted right now.

Pickup: Delonte West
Drop: Jalen Rose

This was a move by BV, basically using a free roster spot to take a shot on a guy who was a top contributor last year and might have some short term value. Wally Szczerbiak missed Saturday night’s game with an ass, so West took his spot in the starting lineup. He did a nice job in 39 minutes – 12/5/4 with a block and a pair of 3s – and as long as he’s starting, he certainly has a bit of value. But he’s also the kind of guy you can let go right away if something else comes along that you like, as BV did. Rose was a pure speculation pickup, thinking he might be able to be this year’s Tim Thomas. Not happening now, not likely to happen later.

Pickup: Travis Outlaw
Drop: Nene Hilario

Swapping out a guy who may have some short-term value due to an injury for another who looks to be missing out on his chance at having some short-term value due to an injury. Brandon Roy is out for at least a week, likely more, and Outlaw has a chance to reap the fantasy benefits, although it doesn’t look too likely. He did put up 16 and 6 with a staggering 6 blocks in 32 minutes after Roy left early on Saturday, but Martell Webster seems to be Nate McMillian’s choice to replace Roy in the starting lineup. Outlaw has received more minutes, but between those two and Juan Dixon there are plenty of bodies to replace Roy, and McMillian can just ride the hot hand each night. As for Nene, his most recent knee injury might not be too serious, but it seems clear that he’s nowhere near playing 30+ minutes in a starting role with Kenyon Martin out.

Pickup: Antoine Wright
Drop: Channing Frye

A quick pickup after news broke that Richard Jefferson could be out for up to two months. A month or so ago you’d see this transaction and think there was some sort of typo, but it makes sense despite Wright scoring just a single point in 34 minutes on Sunday. After being mostly invisible in his rookie season Wright lit it up in the preseason and it has carried over into the regular season. In the two games prior to Sunday he averaged 15.5 ppg with 2 3s in 29.5 mpg. He’s replacing Jefferson in the starting lineup, but as he proved yesterday, that doesn’t mean he’s automatically getting Jefferson’s numbers. Someone will need to pick up the scoring slack in New Jersey, though. Vince Carter’s already about maxed out at what he can do and Kidd is still obviously more of a distributor. Look for Nenad Krstic to see an expanded role, as he attempted 18 shots yesterday, so he should be an especially strong play for the next month. If Wright can maintain consistent minutes, it’s not unreasonable to expect around 12 ppg with some 3s. If you picked up Wright, be encouraged by the fact that even though Marcus Williams and Bostjan Nachbar were much more effective yesterday, Wright still saw more minutes. As for Frye, he’s been absolutely terrible and even in a league in which 156 players are on rosters, it’s a fine move to drop him. He’s certainly worth keeping an eye on, but he’s been bad enough to stay away from for the time being. His 4-point, 5-foul, 13-minute performance Saturday night might be the final straw for Isiah. We’ll see.

November 10
Pickup: Kendrick Perkins
Drop: Theo Ratliff

This is a move I made, and it was after Perkins strong effort off the bench Friday night. I made the opposite move a few days earlier (I picked up Perkins after he was dropped a few days earlier), but it was apparent that in Ratliff’s first few games back he’s not going to be a long-term answer in the middle for the Celtics. Sure enough he was back inactive on Saturday night. Perkins had a disappointing first couple weeks, but he’s still the same guy who I liked coming into the season and was a 10th round pick. I’m desperate for center help with Joel Przybilla already out and Jermaine O’Neal already shaky. Perkins’ solid outing Saturday night has me hoping that he might be able to fulfill those expectations of being a #2 center. More realistically, he’s better served as a #3 center to plug in when one of your top two goes down, at least for the time being.

Pickup: Nene Hilario
Drop: Al Jefferson

After K-Mart got hurt and before Nene went down. It was worth a shot, he did have the most upside of that handful of Denver reserve PFs. As for Jefferson, he was playing solid ball but is going to need to work his way back into shape and into the rotation when he comes back. He could still be a factor in the second half of the season, so be ready to grab him when it looks like he’s ready to come back. I’ve always been skeptical of Jefferson, but that had more to do with his perceived value than actual talent.

Pickup: Mickael Pietrus
Drop: Damon Stoudamire

It’s easy to get the feeling that Don Nelson is going to make it so that plenty of Warriors will be on and off the free agent list all season. Pietrus was great in his most recent start, going for 18/5/5 with 4 3s and a steal in a win over NOK. He’s shooting out of his mind right now, 53% from the field and 50% from long range. His career averages are 42% and 34%. In other words, enjoy it while you can. Maybe this is when he’s finally putting it together, but I’m not buying it. And just Saturday night, he was back coming off the bench, albeit with an efficient 13 points in 20 minutes. Stoudamire’s been awful, and he might be done, but he might just be off to a slow start. He got off to a similarly pathetic start last year – 30% shooting in his first seven games – but picked it up a bit before going down for the year. Chucky Atkins replaced him in the starting lineup last night and Stoudamire promptly had his best outing of the year. I’m going to keep my eye on both of them, but it’s a situation to avoid for now.

November 9
Pickup: David Lee
Drop: Andres Nocioni

One bench guy who could be starting soon for another bench guy who doesn’t seem like that opportunity will be there soon. We talked about Frye’s impossibly bad play, and it might just be a matter of time until Lee takes his place in the lineup. Lee had another solid game Saturday night, needing just 5 shots to get his 8 points, while also grabbing 8 boards and 2 steals in 22 minutes. Makes you wonder why the Knicks gave $30 million to Jared Jeffries when Lee already does whatever Jeffries can do, but a lot better. It’s hard to know what Isiah will do, but Lee has earned his shot. He’ll be a great source of boards and steals should his opportunity come, and he’s a high percentage, if low volume shooter. Nocioni’s playing fine, even if he’s not hitting 3s like he was at the end of the season last year. But with Luol Deng seemingly entrenched as the starter at the SF position, Nocioni’s best chance of starting would be to replace P.J. Brown. It makes sense, but that doesn’t mean Skiles will do it. He’s long been fond of starting one player at PF (Malik Allen, anyone?) and ending the game with someone else. Monitor Nocioni, but he’s not valuable right now.

Pickup: Monta Ellis
Drop: Earl Boykins

It’s looking good for Monta Ellis. Jason Richardson returned to the starting lineup Saturday night, but Ellis kept his starting spot as Pietrus and Mike Dunleavy came off the bench. Ellis didn’t have his best game – 12/2/4 with 4 turnovers in 29 minutes – but it was a blowout win for the Warriors, which bodes well for his chances to stay in the starting lineup moving forward. Ellis looks to be a player in the Ben Gordon mold – not much more than points, but he can get them in bunches. He’s not a gunner from long range, but takes enough to be good for around 1.5 per game if he keeps starting. None of his other numbers jump out, but if the minutes are there, the value is too. Again, though, Golden State can’t really be trusted yet. Boykins is Denver’s second leading scorer so far, and his 4.8 apg are nice, but his shooting has been just brutal. He’s strictly a 25-28 mpg player and doesn’t have much upside beyond what he’s doing now.

01
Joel
November 13th, 2006 9:47 am

Absolutely love this column. Gives me a great overview of the transactions that also occur in my league and the ones I’m considering.

02
November 13th, 2006 11:01 am

I agree, great column. Gives a good barometer as to the immediacy people need to have when looking at FA pickups.

My question for the day: Jarrett Jack is still available in my shallow league and I have been itching to pick him up since he looks like he could be a big help in steals (and assists) this year, although he also seems to be a TO machine.

What’s his long-term value, though? I would probably have to drop a proven vet, either Ricky Davis or Cuttino Mobley, to put him on my roster. Jack looks like he’s definitely improved his game and should have plenty of value even when Brandon Roy gets healthy. Should I drop Mobley or Davis to pick him up?

03
DM
November 13th, 2006 11:06 am

Grab Jarrett Jack. Do it now. I’d rather have him than both of those guys, and I like both Davis and Mobley. Jack is racking up the steals and it’s not by accident. The Portland announcers last night were saying that Jack wants to break the Blazers record for steals in a season, and he has 3+ in 5 of the team’s 7 games this year. GET HIM NOW.

04
November 13th, 2006 11:22 am

Guess I’ll drop Davis, then. I’ve watched a few Minnesota games and he does not have his shot right now; even worse, he seems less involved in the offense in general and was benched for most of the 4th quarter in one of the games I watched.

He finished last year slightly higher than Mobley (69th vs 77th) on the BBM 9-cat player rater for my league but I don’t see him doing even that again with Mike James around and taking 13 shots a game. Mobley is still getting tons of minutes even in the Clippers’ crowded backcourt.

05
Jeremy
November 13th, 2006 11:23 am

Drop Cuttino before Davis. Davis is #2/#3 option in Minnesotta along with KG and Mike James. In Clipperland, there is Brand, Cassell, Magette, Kaman and Thomas who all need to get theirs as well. Overall, it probably depends on what you need, but looking at the two’s numbers, I’d prefer Ricky and Jack as the two to keep. Davis won’t continue to shoot as bad as he is currently.

I wanted to grab Jack as well, but I didn’t really have room on my roster, and now he’s gone!!! Argh!

06
Jeremy
November 13th, 2006 11:24 am

Heh, just beat me out it looks like…Mobley is definately getting more minutes right now, and they are both a safe play. I’m just saying that I expect Davis to heat up at some point and he can become a beast when that happens as well. It probably also matters what type of league you play in (H2H, Roto), when making that decision.

07
November 13th, 2006 11:42 am

It’s an H2H league, which probably helps Davis’ value slightly since Mobley’s strength is consistency. Overall, they have a lot of similarities and are almost equally as likely to have a big offensive game on any given night. I had them rated very closely in the preseason so it’s just a case of Mobley playing better so far.

Either way, it wouldn’t be too hard to replace those guys if I had to in this league since swingmen are plentiful. Even though I am loaded at PG (Nash, Billups, Terry, Felton) I should have realized the value of having the PG-eligible Jack sooner than I did.

08
Jeremy
November 13th, 2006 3:08 pm

Yeah, PG’s are great. I have J.Johnson, Bibby, A.Miller, Nelson, & D.Williams on my team.

In drafting, getting a bunch of C-eligible players can be useful too. I drafted a bunch (Kaman, Camby, Krstic, Pachulia, Darko, Wilcox) and because I had excess was able to trade away a mediocere center for a better player at a different situation. As a result, I turned Zaza Pachulia and Larry Hughes into David West & Josh Howard.

I definately recommend trying to swing something like that if you are in a league where a couple of teams end up autodrafting and find themselves in dire need of a playable center.

09
h2h
November 13th, 2006 3:18 pm

love this column! these moves also reflect my league, i like to see you guys break down the the FA pickups!

im torn on davis and mobleys value, i like davis because hes had a terrible year so far and can only improve. what i dont like about davis is that hes taking 5 shots less/game. but hes the 3rd option behind garnett and james. like jeremy said, theres alot of options in LA right now

nazr mohammed just hit the waiver wire. is he worth grabbing and dropping pj brown?

10
DM
November 13th, 2006 4:11 pm

I’d take Nazr over PJ. Brown just has no offensive game, and Mohammed has played well, just needs the minutes, and is likely to get a few more blocks. As for Davis and Mobley, I agree w/Jeremy in that there are just too many options on the Clips to feel safe with Mobley maintaining his current pace. Ricky’s much more likely to go on an absolute tear and string together a bunch of 30 point games.

11
bv
November 13th, 2006 4:38 pm

h2h, brown just doesn’t have enough value to be worth being on ANY roster right now, even with C-eligibility. That front court is too crowded and he’s not really that good at anything.

I’d take mobley over davis at this point. I think that Davis will start shooting a little better and likely will improve his rebounding but he’s pretty far back of Mobley right now on the player rater and even with those improvements might not overtake cuttino.

12
bublitchki
November 13th, 2006 5:39 pm

Re: Jack

Jack is sitting on my wire, tempting the hell out of me. Problem is I loaded up on PGs in my draft this year and would have to drop one of them to pick him up as I am thin at every other position.

Question: Should I drop one of the following to pick up Jack:

Paul (doh!)
Bibby
D. Williams
L. Barbosa (I selected him late, hoping he would eventually get SG eligibility)

13
November 13th, 2006 5:50 pm

bublitchki, I don’t think any of those guys are droppable. You could try to pull off a 2-for-1 trade and then pick up Jack, but that’s easier said than done and he could get picked up in the interim.

The other choice is to drop one of your other position players if one of them is marginal, pick Jack up, then work on trading one of your PGs to build strength elsewhere.

14
Rook
November 13th, 2006 10:02 pm

Yesterday you guys were nice enough to give advice on my attempt to give Billups and Wilcox for Brand. I’m tempted to yank the deal after Wilcox’s 22/9/1 tonight… the rest of the details are that I’ve got solid other PGs (B. Knight, Barbosa, Jameer), and Mo-Pete squeezed out on the bench (so he’d play if I pulled off the 2 for 1). It’s roto.

G: Billups, Kevin Martin, B. Knight
F: Marion, Redd, Wilcox
C: Kaman, Ilgauskas (both rough starts)
Util: Jameer, Barbosa
BN: Mo-Pete, Kurt Thomas, Walton, Hedo

15
bublitchki
November 13th, 2006 10:28 pm

Thanks for the input, Andy.

I kinda knew already that Jack wouldn’t be an upgrade over any of my current crop of PGs but Jack’s steal potential is tough to pass up.

Having just lost Kirilenko for what could be an extended period of time, I’m looking for any opportunity I can to shore up my defensive cats. I’m in a weekly H2H league and I drafted a team that was intended to be heavily weighted toward boards, blocks, steals, assists & FG% with less of an emphasis on the scoring cats.

Right now, I’ve got three SG/SF eligible players: Josh Smith, Gerald Wallace & Josh Howard. I’m toying with the idea of dropping Howard for Jack as I think he’d make a better fit with the overall design of my team. Yet, I’m hesitant to do so as that would leave me perilously thin at the wing.

Think I should pull the trigger, or am I better off standing pat and scuffling along as best I can until AK returns?

16
Jeremy
November 14th, 2006 12:57 am

bublitchki:

Those SG/SFs all could have a ton of fantasy value, because they all dominate the defensive cats. I think that Howard will end up having more value in the end, but that depends on him staying healthy and the return of Brandon Roy, which will probably cut into Jack’s production a bit.

Hard to think that Jack is still on the waivers. I might try to quickly trade 2-for-2, in that I’d try to get a good player and a poor player for two decent ones, and then cut the poor player for Jack. But, that is if you can act quick. Perhaps worth a look, however.

17
Jeremy
November 14th, 2006 1:10 am

Hey guys, I’m currently in a tough debacle. My current centers are: Camby, Kaman, Krstic, Wilcox & Milicic. All the rest of my players (PG’s and Swingmen) are solid, and I know that I can’t get rid of them.

The darkhorse is Andrew Bynum. With the news that Mihm may be out for the duration of the year, I’m more and more compelled to want to pick him up. In fact, I did drop Wilcox for him, but then picked Wilcox back up once he cleared waivers. Bynum is inconsistent as hell, but considering that he is going to get around 20 minutes per game (at a minimum), will he end up being more valuable than Wilcox or Milicic.

I think that Krstic could still have a ton of value, because he is young and the only decent post that the Nets have. Wilcox has also been off and on, while Darko is being Darko again.

Anyways, I’m not expecting Bynum to have a ton of 20/14 nights, but his averages of 10.5/6.5 and 1.4 blocks with good %’s are better than the numbers posted by Darko: 7.6/5/1.9 and typical center %’s.

Anyways, what do you think? Right now they are both playing better than Kaman, who is obviously someone I’m not going to give up on yet.

While this is a situation worth watching, Bynum comes off waivers in about a day, and I don’t want to make a mistake and watch the wrong player lead my opponent to victory when I eventually face them in the playoffs.

Thanks.

18
November 14th, 2006 9:25 am

Jeremy: I certainly wouldn’t get rid of Krstic. He is already a solid player and he’s still improving, plus he’s on a team full of injury risks which bodes well for his value since he’s likely to shoulder more of the scoring load at various points throughout the year.

As far as Bynum vs. Milicic, that’s a tough call. Both guys are in a timeshare and there is no way if either one of them will be a starter a month from now.

I’d probably have to say Bynum, though. I’m not sold on Bynum as much as some people are, but Phil likes him, he’s getting decent minutes, and despite his inconsistency I think he has a better chance of having serious value down the road.
If Milicic was the starter he would have a good chance at leading the league in blocks, but he’s not. I also think his rebounding numbers will always be limited by the presence of the man child.

As you pointed out, Bynum helps out more in other categories like FT%, plus he’s the starter for now. It’s a crapshoot, but I’d have to go with Bynum.

19
November 14th, 2006 10:01 am

In the previous post, “no way if either” should read “no way to know if either”.

20
Terrance
November 14th, 2006 10:13 am

if anyone, id get rid of darko, but id keep who you have. i like your centers, all very solid!

im looknig to add bobby simmons in place of earl watson. watson has low upside and ridnour was signed to a contract extension so ridnour isnt going anywhere. i like watsons game as he could be valuable given 25 minutes a night, but that goes for alot of nba players.

is bobby simmons a safe get? will be produce when he comes back to the bucks and see 30+ min a night?

21
Jeremy
November 14th, 2006 11:21 am

Well thanks for the input, but it doesn’t make a ton of difference. Someone picked up Bynum off of waivers before I had an opporunity (since I dropped him).

With Kwame coming back and players such as Turiaff and Brian Cook, they do have solid big men who could log time in the middle, especially considering how many teams are playing small ball with three guards and two forwards. I’m not convinced that Bynum will get more burn then he is currently, whereas Darko only has Battie taking his time away. Anyways, I’m making the best of a tough situation and hoping that it will all work out when Darko starts putting up 5 blks/per again.

22

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