I know it’s early, but last place teams are tough to just sit on. You may have had a bad draft, a rough two weeks, whatever. The point is that you’re ready to shake things up. Unfortunately, most other teams aren’t ready for that quite yet. I know that I generally like to wait a month or two into the year before I start making deals. Still, there are guys out there who are underperforming and could be gettable if their owners are sick enough of them. The key with this column is that if you’ve got a stinker of a squad, you’ve got nothing left to lose and you should be more willing to take on risks than those teams at the top. Let’s take a look at who I’m talking about:
Tim Duncan
You know, the only thing more revealing than Tim Duncan being left off of yesterday’s New! Updated! Top 20! is the fact that nobody questioned me on it. Duncan is putting up the 21/11 that we had hoped for entering the season, but an inexplicable drop in blocked shots as well as a worse-than-usual FT% is keeping Tim way down on most player raters. Duncan’s FT% has been one of the most difficult stats to predict in fantasy over the past few years. It makes major swings without seemingly any rhyme or reason. But the 56.3 percent he’s shooting now has GOT to improve. It’s a full 3.6% lower than he’s shot at any other point in his career. His blocks should recover as well, as evidenced by his 3 last night. If you can convince a down-on-their-luck Duncan owner to sell on the cheap, I would go for it. Every other part of his game is going swimmingly right now and I think that by year-end he should be a Top 40 hit. And given the lack of strong C’s right now, he’s worth at least third round value.
Gerald Wallace
Don’t say for a second that we didn’t warn you, because we absolutely did. We called him a bust in our Overall Rankings, and placed him in the 4th tier of SF’s alongside Mike Miller and Ricky Davis. His numbers are down across the board and he’s already missed time in two games due to injury. That said, teams at the bottom of the standings should be looking to acquire Wallace if they don’t already have him. He could - COULD - end up as a top-15 guy by the end of the year and if you’re looking to take a big risk this is the one to take. On the plus side, he’s been recoving from his injuries quickly, which we couldn’t say of him before, and you should be able to get him for a 6th or 7th round value.
Baron Davis
There are two kinds of guys you should be targeting - the first is the underperforming stud that you think could turn it around, like the previous two guys. The other is the yearly question mark that has their owners holding their breath all year long. That’s where Baron comes in. Other than one stinker against the Jazz, Baron has been steadily solid, shooting a higher percentage from the field, a direct effect of the with fewer threes attempted and even sporting a non-murderous FT%. Still, he could blow up with either an injury or an argument with Don Nelson, and I know if he was on my team I’d probably sell for a fourth round value.
Emeka Okafor
Okafor falls into the Baron Davis class - overperforming risks. There’s obviously no way he keeps up his 4-block pace, but he could certainly see his FG% stay above 50%. He’s also going to eventually improve his FT%, I hope. I’m an Okafor owner and If someone offered me a third round value I’d at least have to consider it. The problem with trading for Okafor (and Duncan) is that with C’s a t such a premium you’re going to have to offer a C back in most deals for them. But a third-round value including a C would probably get the deal done for Okafor, who could possibly continue to be a top-25 player.
** It’s also important to note that punting a category, while not often recommended, is an interesting strategy to pursue if you’ve got nothing to lose. This is particularly true of leagues where prizes go to the top 3 or 4 teams. If this is the route you want to go, the above guys are great places to start punting free throws. FT% is often one of the most under-considered categories on draft day for a number of reasons, but come 2 or 3 weeks into the year and owners notice that they’re struggling in FT%, they are often more willing to let those category killers go.**
Waiver Scrounging
The other ting you should do as a last place team is constantly make moves on the waiver wire. For example, this morning you should be able to pick up guys like Mike Dunleavy, Sean May, or Ruben Patterson. You’re going to end up picking wrong more often than you will pick right, but all it takes is one or two right picks to really right your ship. The teams at the bottom of your league should be leading the league in transactions by a large margin.