Another new feature here on FBB, one where we pit two seemingly equal players against each other in a battle to the death. Except replace “battle to the death” with “which one will be more valuable in fantasy leagues.” Today we’ll look at a couple of players that were brought up by commenter Rich over the weekend, Peja Stojakovic and our #2 hero here in D.C., Caron Butler. Don’t worry, we can be objective. Most likely.
Scoring Catgories
It’s almost exactly even through FG%, FT% and points. Stojakovic could be counted on for around 48% during his peak years in Sacramento, but that’s not going to happen anymore. Both him and Butler can be expected to shoot around 45% on about 14-15 shots per game. Stojakovic has an uncharacteristically low 79% mark from the line right now, but you can expect that will be around 90% by the end of the season. Still, Butler has a bit more value from the line since his not-at-all-shabby 85% comes with a couple more attempts per game. Both players can be expected to drop in just under 20 points per game. Stojakovic is more explosive, as his 42-point game the other night showed, but Butler might actually be a more consistent option since he’s more likely to get to the line. It’s when we step out to long range that Stojakovic has the obvious edge. Butler loves to take 20-foot jumpers, but he doesn’t like to often extend outside that. Stojakovic is a straight-up gunner. At least 40% of his attempts will be from behind the arc, and expect him, Ray Allen and Gilbert Arenas to fight it out for most 3PM at the end of the season.
Edge: Stojakovic
Non-Scoring Categories
Here’s where Butler has the big advantage. Remember back in his rookie season when Butler averaged 1.8 spg and we thought he’d be one of the great thieves for the next decade? Then his role diminished the next season and it took him a while to get adapted in L.A. the next season. He got back to 1.7 spg in his first season in Washington and this season only Ron Artest and Brevin Knight are topping Butler’s 2.2 spg. Last night’s wonderful romp over the Cavs was the first game this season in which Butler didn’t tally a steal, and he’s actually dropped off a bit lately with just two in his last three games. But he had notched at least two in every game before that, so it’s simply regressing towards the mean. Butler is also becoming a monster on the boards. Anyone who watched the playoff series against the Cavs last spring knows what a force he can be, as he averaged 10.5 in the series including 20 in Game 6. He’s reached double digits in three of his last five games and his average of 7 per game this season is no fluke. Stojakovic has absolutely no value in any of these categories. His assists are well below average for a swingman, and his usually decent rebounding is way down this year. You also can’t count on him for any blocks or steals.
Edge: Butler
Durability/Consistency
Stojakovic has missed 10+ games in each of the past two seasons and has only one season of 80+ games in his career. He’s managed to avoid any serious injuries and is just 29 years old, so he should continue to be OK. It wouldn’t be surprising for him to miss a few games here of there, but despite the past couple of tumultuous seasons he should be a safe bet for 75 games. Butler missed some time at the end of last year with a thumb injury that was a lot more serious than he let on, so give him points there for being a warriors. He’s another very safe bet for 75 games. But the difference is game-to-game performance. Stojakovic is a shooter, so when his shot is falling, things are going well, like Tuesday when he scored the Hornets first 20 points en route to 42. But that 42 is double his high game in any other contest, and he’s receiving a surprisingly low 32 mpg. It’s working for the 7-3 Hornets so far, so while that number may go up, it’s not wise to expect much more than 35 mpg from Stojakovic. Butler, meanwhile, is playing huge minutes for the Wizards. They have no choice, really, as he’s not just one of their main offensive weapons but also one of their best defenders and rebounders. Take away a blowout win against the Pacers and Butler has played at least 36 minutes in every other game and 39 minutes in six out of 10.
Edge: Butler
Verdict
When in doubt, go with the minutes. Stojakovic can singlehandedly put you in contention in 3s, but he’s really a glorified specialist in that category these days. He doesn’t get to the line enough to make much of a difference there and he’s not an impact scorer. This would be different if he was still getting those 38-40 mpg he received during his heyday in Sacramento, but that’s in the past. Butler is the one getting those minutes now and it helps him rack up numbers even on most off nights. Coming into the season, Stojakovic was seen as slightly more valuable; he went #44 in our league while Butler was #54, and most rankings had Stojakvoic roughly one round better than Butler. But the current player rater doesn’t like, and Butler is at #36 while Stojakovic languishes at #66. It should tighten up, but Butler is the pick.
Transaction Reaction
November 19
Pickup: Jeff Foster
Drop: Kenny Thomas
Foster entered the starting lineup on Saturday, but it might be a short-term move. But then again, it might not be. Al Harrington was playing out of position in the middle, although really you could say Jermaine O’Neal was manning the middle. In either way, Rick Carlisle likes Foster and wants to get him more minutes. It’s plausible the Pacers could go with a Tinsley/Granger/Harrington/O’Neal/Foster starting five, but that seems more like a Phil Jackson sort of move. You know what you’re going to get with Foster, and I consider that a good thing. Foster is a noted rebounding machine, and only Reggie Evans, Dwight Howard and Carlos Boozer are grabbing boards at a better rate than Foster this season. Even if he plays only 20 minutes, he’s got a good chance to grab 10 boards. But do know that’s all he’ll give you. He’s never blocked shots or scored, although he does grab a decent number of steals for a center. If you’re shorthanded at center and just want to get some boards, Foster seems to be a fine option for the time being. Thomas has just dropped off miserably in the past few games, with Corliss Williamson taking most of his minutes.
November 18
Pickup: Jorge Garbajosa
Drop: Paul Millsap
Here’s your new hot pick up, and with good reason. Hey, anyone who receives around 40 minutes in back-to-back games is worth grabbing, without question. So what do we know about the Garbage Man? Well, not a whole lot. He’s been starting at center but clearly isn’t your traditional center and doesn’t qualify there in most leagues. He’s likely to have more 3s than blocks this season, which certainly isn’t what you’d expect from a big man. John Hollinger guessed that he might have trouble adapting to the longer NBA 3-point line, and so far that’s proved true as he’s connected on just 4-of-24. But he’s got active hands, notching 6 steals in his two starts, and he should get decent boards by virtue of being one of the taller players out there on a team that plays an up-tempo pace. Asking him to be the next Mehmet Okur is a bit much, as Okur is a legit top 40 player, and you never know exactly what Sam Mitchell’s going to do. But Rasho Nesterovic is a stiff and Garbajosa fits the Raptors scheme much better. Keep your expectations in check, but there’s a good chance he won’t be appearing back on your free agent list any time soon.
November 17
Pickup: Alonzo Mourning
Drop: Kwame Brown
An obvious pickup with Shaq out for at least a month. Mourning hasn’t looked the same as he did last year when Shaq went down early, but if Saturday night’s rejection of a Josh Smith dunk was any indication, he could be getting into the swing of things now. Mourning should be worth starting in basically all leagues as there’s unlikely to be anyone as strong as him in blocks, except for perhaps my boy Jermaine O’Neal. He’s not going to score much and he’ll miss a bunch of free throws, but put him in your lineup and enjoy the swats.
Pickup: Erick Dampier
Drop: Channing Frye
That was quite a game for Erica on Friday night, but his output on Saturday night is what you should expect going forward. Those 22 points from Friday are very likely to be his season high, he’s 6-for-16 from the line on the rest of the season, and while he has a fine chance to stay in the 52-54% from the field range, that 69% isn’t going to last. He’s a fine C2 plug-in while he’s hot, but we’ve seen these kinds of flashes from him before.
