What, you think DM is the only one who can come up with new ideas for columns? Here’s a little number I call “Buy, Sell or Hold,” where we take teams that are over- or under-performing and look closer at their roster to see who’s worth buying, who’s worth selling, and who’s too tough to make a judgement on just yet. Without any further ado…
Somethings going on out there on the left coast. Golden State isn’t just winning, they’re winning big. Their average margin of victory is 14.4 during their current 5 game winning streak, highlighted by a 32-point victory over Detroit, of all teams. Of course, there’s plenty of reason to believe that this will all blow over. First, every game has been at home - and they’ve got 2 more to go before they finally leave their friendly confines to go to Denver. (Side note - this is some ingenious scheduling by the NBA. They know that come January this team will be an absolute mess, so they give them a 7-game homestand in November. In fact, during November they’re playing 12 at home and just 4 on the road. This way they maximize ticket sales while the team is clicking. Brilliant!) Two, they’ve got three guys playing by far the best ball of their life in Monta Ellis, Andris Biedrins and Mickael Pietrus. And three, well, let’s just say we’ve learned our lesson before about Baron Davis.
Still, right now it’s possible - even probable - that as many as seven Warriors are owned in your league right now. Let’s take a look-see at how these guys should be handled, because odds are their stats now will not be reflective of their stats in the future:
Baron Davis - Well, we’ve certainly seen this story before, haven’t we? Baron gets off to a hot start, then gets a little hurt, then misses some time, then you lose your league. For the love of god, sell on Baron if you can get anything near third-round value for him. He’s right around 20 on most player raters, but he’s just as likely to end up around 80-100 by the end of the year. Those of you who drafted him in the 5th round this year have gotten exactly what you wanted - a hot start. Now it’s time to sell and trade up in value, turn that fifth round pick into a third round pick and let someone else hold their breath all year. VERDICT: SELL.
Monta Ellis - Ellis is quickly turning into an FBB favorite. In fact, I was pretty impressed with him last year but it didn’t look like he was going to get enough minutes this year. Luckily, with Don Nelson playing approximately 8 guards on the floor at all times, Ellis is thriving with over 30 mpg so far. You might think that Ellis is a sell high candidate right now, but I”m going to go the other way. I mean, he’s seeing over 30 mpg and between Jason Richardson and Baron Davis both dealing with injuries, that number should continue. In fact, I’m so low on Davis right now that I’d advocate going out and getting Ellis from a sell-high-happy owner. If you can get him for a Utility guy - and you should be able to - I say do it. A Baron injury is all that stands between him and a 17 point, 6 assist average with a three and a steal. VERDICT: BUY.
Mickael Pietrus - Pietrus may be valued higher than Ellis right now but I think that’s going to reverse itself by the end of the year. Troy Murphy’s return will have a serious negative effect on Pietrus as he’ll be forced to move back to the perimiter, grabbing less rebounds, shooting a lesser percentage, blocking less shots, and seeing less minutes in general. While Ellis has succeeded even when the Warriors were at full strength, Pietrus has only had good games and major minutes when either Murphy or Jason Richardson were out. Still, odds are that he’ll manage at least 25-30 mpg and put up something similar to 14-5 with a three and a steal. I’d still expect the FG% and blocks to drop, but that won’t surprise anyone. VERDICT: HOLD.
Andris Biedrins - Here at FBB we’ve been huge fans of Andris Biedrins ever since we spent hours staring at this photo and feeling a little uncomfortable about ourselves. The fact is that Biedrins is going to have plenty of good games but also plenty of bad ones and he’s probably more trouble than he’s worth. That said, teams desperate for a center should be willing to overpay for him, so if you’ve got a team like that I’d start some trade talks there. VERDICT: SELL
Mike Dunleavy, Jr. - In what has been one of the least-shocking developments of the early season, Mike Dunleavy has been a pretty big disappointment. Well, that’s not true - in reality he’s pretty much the same player he’s always been. But the preseason talk of him being a point-forward inflated his value and made some people think he was primed for a break-out year. Well, now we can put those rumors to rest. Dunleavy will have a few good games here and there but will ultimately be a marginal utility guy, just like he’s always been. VERDICT: HOLD.
Jason Richardson - Does anyone else get the feeling that Richardson rushed himself back from his knee surgery? Let’s look at the symptoms: He wasn’t supposed to be ready for the beginning of the season but came back anyways. He’s seen 7 mpg fewer than he got last year. He missed a game due to soreness in his surgically repaired knee. And the guy that typically depends on his explosiveness more than anything else has seen a severe drop in his percentages as well as a major drop in his defensive stats. I’m just waiting for the Warriors to announce that Richardson is going to shut it down for awhile. VERDICT: SELL
Troy Murphy - On the down side, he’s rebounding at half of his normal rate and still is allergic to blocking shots. On the plus side, he - along iwht pretty much every Warrior outside of J-Rich - is averaging a career high in FG%. Murphy should eventually settle down to what he’s always been - a double-double with a three and little else. If that’s your thing, don’t let me stop you. VERDICT:HOLD.