In our first edition of BSH, we looked at the Golden State Warriors, a team who’s oft-injured star (Baron Davis) and breakout players (Monta Ellis, Andris Biedrins) created a situation with values in flux. We’re going to continue that trend today and look at the Utah Jazz, a team with an oft-injured star (Andrei Kirilenko) and a breakout player (Deron Williams) that has created some changing values and maybe could change the way we look at this team.
There are, of course, a couple of major differences. For one, Golden State has a new head coach in Don Nelson, whereas Utah’s Jerry Sloan is the oldest institution in Utah besides Mormons. Two, Nelson believes in a seven-to-eight man rotation, whereas Sloan plays a solid 10-12 most nights. And finally, Utah’s got a couple of guys who are 30-minutes-no-matter-what in their starting lineup in Carlos Boozer, Deron Williams and Mehmet Okur. So the minutes aren’t going to be as available here as they are in Golden State. Still, with AK-47 all busted and Boozer and Williams playing like Stockton and Malone, something’s up in the Salt Lake …
Andrei Kirilenko – Let’s start here. You knew going into the season that Kirilenko was an injury risk, and that was brought to reality pretty quickly with the ankle sprain that’s kept him out for 5 games. What you perhaps weren’t counting on was that his offensive game would fall completely off the table. Even when he’s on the floor, he’s not shooting the ball very much – and when he IS shooting the ball, it’s not going in! What’s more worrying is that this is looking less like an aberration and more like a trend. Last year his points per 40 minutes dropped by almost three, and now it’s down another six. His FT% dropped 9 percent last year and now it’s still there. And his FG% dropped over 3% last year and now it’s down another six. I don’t think he’s going to continue being this bad but he may end up being a ten points a night kinda guy. Jerry Sloan has pulled him in from the 3-point line as well, and his 0-5 the other night won’t help reverse that trend. He had his best game in awhile last night but I’m not convinced he’ll be consistent enough to be a stud anymore. If you can find someone who still believes that AK can contribute late second round value (or even third), I think you’ve got to pull the trigger there. VERDICT: SELL.
Carlos Boozer – The longer this goes on, the more that Boozer looks like he’s going to be a pretty serious fantasy force for the foreseeable future. And no, I’m not talking about his career-highs in points, boards, FG%, or assists, because those are going to come down eventually. But it’s starting to look like he’s going to be a dependable double-double with great percentages for a C, and while he’s never going to contribute in blocks or steals, it’s time to look at Boozer like a legit Top-30 player. Some Boozer owners are going to want to sell high on him, but the truth is he’s not over-performing by THAT much. If you can get him for a shaky third or a fourth round value, go for it. VERDICT: BUY.
Deron Williams – The big question here is, has Williams simply improved, or is he over-performing? I was all ready to come in to this and say that Williams is going to crash back to Earth eventually, just like Kevin Martin and Zack Randolph and then DM will go home crying to his Momma. But the fact of the matter is that Williams, like Boozer, has some substance behind his statistical burst. First of all, he dropped eight pounds over the offseason. Secondly, it looks like he’s won over Jerry Sloan, and you don’t need Carlos Arroyo to tell you that Sloan decides your fate in Utah. I still think he’s over-performing, but I also wouldn’t mind tricking a sell-happy owner into selling him for a fourth-round value. VERDICT: BUY.
Mehmet Okur - While Boozer and Williams have excelled, and Kirilenko has collapsed, Mehmet Okur has simply been exactly what he was last year. Those who were worried that last year was going to be a fluke for Okur can rest those fears now. He’ll be a solid producer for the foreseeable future, and if you took him in the fourth round, good for you. VERDICT: HOLD.
Matt Harpring - Remember last week when I was talking about how you have to have that “plug-in starter” on your bench, the guy who you can put in your lineup for a game or two when one of your players has a nagging injury? Matt Harpring is that guy defined. He obviously won’t shoot 54% over the rest of the year but he’ll put up double-digit points with a couple boards and occasional 3’s or steals. VERDICT: HOLD.
Paul Millsap - Pardon me as I continue to pat myself on the back for totally calling it on Millsap leading up to the draft. He led the country in rebounds for three consecutive years, and I was hoping the Wizards would use their FIRST round pick on him. Still, he’s just not going to see the consistent minutes that he needs to be successful. He’ll have his hot streaks for sure, but unless Boozer or Okur go down with an injury, Millsap is probably waiver wire fodder. VERDICT: SELL.
Derek Fisher – Here’s one you may have forgotten about. Fisher has quietly been picking up his game in Utah and had hit double-digit points in three straight before last night. He will see his minutes because Jerry Sloan likes his veteran presence. Like Harpring, Fisher should be on the bench if you’re in a deep league as that fill-in starter. Unlike Harpring, it’s certainly a possibility that Fisher will see more minutes as the season goes on. Utah will not continue this torrid pace (much easier to say after they lost their last 2), and the obvious answer for Sloan – other than Kirilenko working his way back into the lineup – is for more Fisher. VERDICT: BUY.