As I was sitting around this morning lamenting my “safe” first round pick Elton Brand’s rough start to the season, I came across this little nugget from the LA Times: “Elton Brand has acknowledged he’s tired after his workload in the summer with the U.S. national team.” I had almost forgotten about that! Only a month into the season, and with my safe second-round pick (and Team USA Alum) Joe Johnson performing as well as I had hoped, I had almost put this summer completely out of my mind. But here’s the thing - fatigue from the summer is going to matter more as the season goes on, not less.
Still, just because a guy played for his international team doesn’t mean he’s going to struggle this year. But it definitely will affect some guys. The trick is to figure out who’s going to really miss those few months off come next spring. And for me, there are two main factors - age and conditioning. And when I say “conditioning,” I don’t mean getting out of shape like Boris Diaw (more on that below). What I mean is, is the player’s body conditioned to play basketball for something like 20 months straight with no real break?
Elton Brand should have been a major red flag on both issues. First, at age 27 he’s certainly not old, but average age in the NBA is 26, and he’s not exactly lining up on the same side of that line as LeBron James or Chris Bosh. Secondly, while few question Brand’s conditioning, the fact is that for the six seasons before this one, he’s been able to do his own thing for pretty much 4 months before heading to training camp. You know, things can be a lot easier when you don’t have to play in the playoffs.
But then, a funny thing happened this summer. In May, when Elton is typically chilling by the pool (or doing whatever he does), he was locked in an all-out war with the Phoenix Suns. He ended up adding an extra 12 NBA games to his normal schedule thanks to the playoffs, and then took off for Team USA after that! What I’m saying is, even though he may work out and train with the best of them, adding a few months of work to a schedule will make things tough on anyone.
As a contrast, think about Yao Ming. Sure, he played in the worlds, but he also got a nice break after the regular season. He also sat out for a while during the season last year due to injury. What’s more, prior to this season, he had been playing basketball basically 12 months a year thanks to his committments to Team China. So he was ready for the extra workload that was going to be required of him this summer.
This doesn’t mean I’m going to be doing anything drastic irrational about Brand, but it certainly means I’m going to keep this in mind as I track his progress. At this point, my best bet is probably to just hope he gets out of his funk (he has had a couple of nice games recently). But I wouldn’t make a deal FOR him as a first-round value, either.
So, with that said, who else am I concerned about when it comes to fatigue? I had mentioned Dwyane Wade in our Season Preview, and I’m still worried about him moving forward, but here are some mid-level guys that you should also be wary of:
Antawn Jamison - If you watch too many crappy Wizards games like I do, you’ll notice that Jamison has been a shadow of his typical self. He hasn’t been rebounding the ball quite as much, he’s settling for far more jumpers, and he’s slowly turning into a third option behind Caron Butler. Jamison is typically streaky anyways, but to me he’s showing some possible signs of fatigue from the summer. He turned 30 this summer as well, and he may not be the double-double machine that you were hoping for when you drafted him.
Shane Battier - We’ve had a couple of questions about Battier and he’s been a prety consistent topic of discussion here ever since I proclaimed him to be a breakout star this year. (In case you were counting, that’s 2 DUke players that I’ve vouched for, and 2 Duke players that have come up short.) Battier’s Usage Rate (thank you John Hollinger) has fallen from a career-low last year of 12.5 to a new, even more astounding low of 11.0. He’s not shooting, and even when he IS shooting, he’s missing. As predicted, he’s dialing more from long distance this year, but he’s also not rebounding the ball, getting to the line, or making his foul shots. Battier is clearly playing more on the perimiter and I don’t know if that’s simply his new role on the Rockets, or if it’s because he’s tired, but I worry that it’s the second of those.
Boris Diaw - What, you forgot that there are other national teams besides USA? Diaw may be a youngster at age 24, but the fact is that for the 2 years before last he played about 20 mpg for the Hawks, then got to hang out for a few months in the summer. Not anymore. Last year he played 35 mpg for the Suns in the regular season, then played consecutive 7, 7, and 6-game series in the playoffs where he averaged 40 mpg. He finally wrapped things up in early june and then headed to play for Team France, where he led the team in minutes (31/game) during their nine games in the Championships. And somehow, the the month between his last game for France and the start of training camp in October, he managed to end up 15 pounds overweight. I’m concerned less about the weight, which he’ll lose, and concerned more about the fatigue with Diaw. This season may not end pretty for him.