With all due respect to my main men Kevin Martin and Deron Williams, there can be no question that the breakout start of the first month of this NBA season has been Andris Biedrins. Martin and Williams were at least on everyone’s radar coming into the season, while Biedrins wasn’t much more than afterthought. In our defense, Biedrins has been a longtime FBB favorite – I think we’ve actually been referring to him as a longtime FBB favorite for more than a year now. We first took notice in March of his rookie season and pegged him as “the sleeper” on the Warriors — last year. We didn’t think he’d earn the trust of Don Nelson, but that obviously hasn’t been the case. Not only has he earned his trust, but he’s become perhaps the most consistent member of the team.
So what can we make for Biedrins. There was some wacky talk in the comments the other day, talking about taking Biedrins in the 2nd or 3rd round and Rich even said he would consider taking him at the end of the first round. Folks, let’s settle down here just a bit. There’s plenty of season left this year before we need to start determining next year’s draft positions, but I can tell you that Biedrins shouldn’t be taken in the first round. He’s obviously an extremely valuable commodity in keeper leagues and would probably be one of the most untouchable players at this point, although rules in those types of leagues vary so much that it’s hard to say that definitively. So let’s concern ourselves with this year. If you have Biedrins on your team, you got him for free. You swooped in and plucked him off the free agent list and have been enjoying the ride. All of this production is a bonus. So the big question is what to do with him.
I always like to compare players to other players, it helps puts things in context. And here’s who I think that Biedrins is becoming – the player that we thought Samuel Dalembert was going to become. Biedrins’ offensive skills are still very raw. He doesn’t need much of a game since he has such a nose for the ball and manages to get himself easy shots, which leads to his obscene 65% from the field. But as his equally obscene 43% from the line shows, he is not a good shooter. His biggest assets are obviously in boards and blocks, and he is certainly the real deal there. We’ve been envisioning a 13/11/3 blocks with decent steals from Dalembert, and Biedrins averages this year are . Yes, he exploded for 31 points in that 140-129 shoot out against the Nuggets, but has topped 14 points in just one other contest. He is not an offensive force, especially on a team with guys like Baron Davis, Jason Richardson, Monta Ellis and Troy Murphy. Those guys are taking the shots (and lucky for Biedrins, they miss enough for him to clean up). But the blocks and boards are certainly for real. Biedrins is an extremely smart and athletic player. He only grabbed five boards and two blocks last night, but he has 11 games of 10+ boards and 15 games of 2+ blocks, including six of 4 or more.
It would be folly to ignore the free throw issue, though. After shooting an impressive 9-for-11 over the previous three games, Biedrins was back down to 1-for-4 last night. You’ve seen him at the line, it ain’t pretty. He might have good nights, but it’s pure luck. He has attempted 161 free throws in his career and drained 68 for 42%. Think of him as Ben Wallace at the line. He’s a worse shooter than Shaq, but not nearly the volume, and since he’s not fed the ball like Shaq, he won’t hurt you that much. But make no mistake, he will hurt you there. In H2H leagues, any player with a one category deficiency can be worked around, but in roto leagues they are really tough to handle. When you draft a player who is a big drag in FT%, you have to build your roster accordingly. Smart owners can do it easily, but it’s certainly something that needs to be done.
So, let’s bottom line it. I view Biedrins as roughly a 4th round value at this point, but call it 4th/5th since he hasn’t proven it over a long spell. He’s still very young and will be inconsistent; there are very few players in the league that aren’t top offensive options on their team that aren’t inconsistent. It’s not a flaw specific to Biedrins, it’s just how it is. Some people may look at Biedrins like last night – 9/5/2 with 2 blocks – as disappointing, but in a way I see it as encouraging. I’m just as interested in players on their off nights as their on nights. That’s when you can really tell what a he’s made of. If this is an off night for Biedrins, then there’s reason to feel good about him. I mean, it sure beats Kevin Martin’s 2-points and nothing outing from the other night. Biedrins’ 31-point explosion will be his season high, but he’ll get enough dunks to flirt regularly with double digits. It’ll be easy to say that his minutes might dip when everyone on the team is healthy, but is that really going to happen? Troy Murphy, Jason Richardson, Baron Davis, Mickael Pietrus and Ike Diogu have already missed time, so let’s not treat this as an inevitability. Enough waiting for Sammy D to be the next shot blocking machine who does enough to finish top 50 overall. Biedrins looks to be that guy instead.