Comments on: Andris the Giant http://www.fantasybasketblog.net/2006/11/30/andris-the-giant/ A Fantasy Basketball Blog. Surprise. Fri, 08 Aug 2008 18:32:18 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.4 by: DM http://www.fantasybasketblog.net/2006/11/30/andris-the-giant/#comment-1766 Fri, 01 Dec 2006 14:34:12 +0000 http://www.fantasybasketblog.net/2006/11/30/andris-the-giant/#comment-1766 Sorry to be late with replies, lemme see if I can get to everything real quick. S, I'd probably drop SAR (who I like, but the numbers have been pretty ordinary) for Battier, who has sneaky value and should only get better. Rook, Sheed is definitely adapting his game a bit to make up for the loss of his fellow Wallace. He may be a hothead but he's also one of the smartest and most versatile players out there. That said, he's getting back into the habit of launching 3s and I think that the shift away from last year's numbers is a bit of a trend, things will even out. And as for Biedrins ... it's true that he's only 20 and the sky may very well be the limit. I think that his offensive upside may be as limited by his teammates as his actual talent, though. I was mostly focusing on his outlook for this year, too, but it is a bit hard for me to see him becoming a 20 ppg player with a stroke that ugly. We'll see. Love the guy, that's for sure. Sorry to be late with replies, lemme see if I can get to everything real quick.

S, I’d probably drop SAR (who I like, but the numbers have been pretty ordinary) for Battier, who has sneaky value and should only get better.

Rook, Sheed is definitely adapting his game a bit to make up for the loss of his fellow Wallace. He may be a hothead but he’s also one of the smartest and most versatile players out there. That said, he’s getting back into the habit of launching 3s and I think that the shift away from last year’s numbers is a bit of a trend, things will even out.

And as for Biedrins … it’s true that he’s only 20 and the sky may very well be the limit. I think that his offensive upside may be as limited by his teammates as his actual talent, though. I was mostly focusing on his outlook for this year, too, but it is a bit hard for me to see him becoming a 20 ppg player with a stroke that ugly. We’ll see. Love the guy, that’s for sure.

]]> by: rich http://www.fantasybasketblog.net/2006/11/30/andris-the-giant/#comment-1760 Thu, 30 Nov 2006 19:21:10 +0000 http://www.fantasybasketblog.net/2006/11/30/andris-the-giant/#comment-1760 Well, I got taken out of context a bit there, since I even pointed out that it was too early to think of him that highly, but IF he were to keep him up, he would be a great second to third round value. The big knock you mention, his FT%, was exactly what I said he had to fix before becoming a potential late first rounder. Note that when I wrote that, he had hit over 76% of his free throws for the past week. People have proven over time that even the ugliest form can consistently make shots (see Shawn Marion, Kevin Marin this season) Anyways, as long as he stays in Nelson's favor, he'll be getting a ton of minutes, which of course is vital to fantasy greatness. It's not at all unreasonable to assume that with some minor offensive development (assuming his recent play isn't a fluke), he could average 15-18 ppg next season. I'm not suggesting he's offensively talented now, but he will get a ton of free points from dunks off of passes from Ellis/Davis and the expected putbacks high energy players like he tend to get. Since the Warriors score so many points, hey, it could happen. Ben Wallace in years past has been a 2nd-4th round pick, depending on league type. I don't see why Biedrins, a 20 year old seemingly monster rebounder and shot blocker, with more offensive talent, couldn't be reasonably drafted at at least those rounds. If he eliminates the free throw shooting flaw (which it looks like he won't, I finally got to see his form, but hey like I said, form isn't everything) then in my opinion, he'd be dominant enough to consider at the end of the first round. Again, this is ALL assuming he maintains his current ridiculous pace, and this still remains to be seen. Well, I got taken out of context a bit there, since I even pointed out that it was too early to think of him that highly, but IF he were to keep him up, he would be a great second to third round value. The big knock you mention, his FT%, was exactly what I said he had to fix before becoming a potential late first rounder. Note that when I wrote that, he had hit over 76% of his free throws for the past week. People have proven over time that even the ugliest form can consistently make shots (see Shawn Marion, Kevin Marin this season)

Anyways, as long as he stays in Nelson’s favor, he’ll be getting a ton of minutes, which of course is vital to fantasy greatness. It’s not at all unreasonable to assume that with some minor offensive development (assuming his recent play isn’t a fluke), he could average 15-18 ppg next season. I’m not suggesting he’s offensively talented now, but he will get a ton of free points from dunks off of passes from Ellis/Davis and the expected putbacks high energy players like he tend to get. Since the Warriors score so many points, hey, it could happen.

Ben Wallace in years past has been a 2nd-4th round pick, depending on league type. I don’t see why Biedrins, a 20 year old seemingly monster rebounder and shot blocker, with more offensive talent, couldn’t be reasonably drafted at at least those rounds. If he eliminates the free throw shooting flaw (which it looks like he won’t, I finally got to see his form, but hey like I said, form isn’t everything) then in my opinion, he’d be dominant enough to consider at the end of the first round.

Again, this is ALL assuming he maintains his current ridiculous pace, and this still remains to be seen.

]]> by: rich http://www.fantasybasketblog.net/2006/11/30/andris-the-giant/#comment-1759 Thu, 30 Nov 2006 19:19:34 +0000 http://www.fantasybasketblog.net/2006/11/30/andris-the-giant/#comment-1759 Well, I got taken out of context a bit there, since I even pointed out that it was too early to think of him that highly, but IF he were to keep him up, he would be a great second to third round value. The big knock, his FT%, was what I said he had to fix before becoming a potential late first rounder. Note that when I wrote that, he had hit over 76% of his free throws for the past week. People have proven over time that even the ugliest form can consistently make shots (see Shawn Marion, Kevin Marin this season) Anyways long as he stays in Nelson's favor, he'll be getting a ton of minutes, which of course is vital to fantasy greatness. It's not at all unreasonable to assume that with some minor offensive development (assuming his recent play isn't a fluke), he could average 15-18 ppg next season. I'm not suggesting he's overly offensive talented now, but he will get a ton of free points from dunks off of passes from Ellis/Davis and the expected putbacks high energy players like he tend to get. Ben Wallace in years past has been a 2nd-4th round pick, depending on league type. I don't see why Biedrins, a 20 year old seemingly monster rebounder and shot blocker, with more offensive talent, couldn't be reasonably drafted at at least those rounds. If he eliminates the free throw shooting flaw (which it looks like he won't, I finally got to see his form, but hey like I said, form isn't everything) then he'd be dominant enough to consider in the end of the first round. Again, this is ALL assuming he maintains his current ridiculous pace, and this still remains to be seen. Well, I got taken out of context a bit there, since I even pointed out that it was too early to think of him that highly, but IF he were to keep him up, he would be a great second to third round value.
The big knock, his FT%, was what I said he had to fix before becoming a potential late first rounder. Note that when I wrote that, he had hit over 76% of his free throws for the past week. People have proven over time that even the ugliest form can consistently make shots (see Shawn Marion, Kevin Marin this season)

Anyways long as he stays in Nelson’s favor, he’ll be getting a ton of minutes, which of course is vital to fantasy greatness. It’s not at all unreasonable to assume that with some minor offensive development (assuming his recent play isn’t a fluke), he could average 15-18 ppg next season. I’m not suggesting he’s overly offensive talented now, but he will get a ton of free points from dunks off of passes from Ellis/Davis and the expected putbacks high energy players like he tend to get.

Ben Wallace in years past has been a 2nd-4th round pick, depending on league type. I don’t see why Biedrins, a 20 year old seemingly monster rebounder and shot blocker, with more offensive talent, couldn’t be reasonably drafted at at least those rounds. If he eliminates the free throw shooting flaw (which it looks like he won’t, I finally got to see his form, but hey like I said, form isn’t everything) then he’d be dominant enough to consider in the end of the first round.

Again, this is ALL assuming he maintains his current ridiculous pace, and this still remains to be seen.

]]> by: Rook http://www.fantasybasketblog.net/2006/11/30/andris-the-giant/#comment-1757 Thu, 30 Nov 2006 18:15:44 +0000 http://www.fantasybasketblog.net/2006/11/30/andris-the-giant/#comment-1757 Sorry to ask an unrelated question. Haven't seen a Detroit game this year yet. What's up with Rasheed Wallace? Are his big man categories (FG%, rebounds, blocks) going to stay above his career norms because he's playing closer to the basket with Ben Wallace's departure? Or do you think he'll revert to last year's 6.8 rebounds a game, 43% FG%, chucking 5.4 threes a game? I could really use this year's version on my team. Sorry to ask an unrelated question. Haven’t seen a Detroit game this year yet. What’s up with Rasheed Wallace? Are his big man categories (FG%, rebounds, blocks) going to stay above his career norms because he’s playing closer to the basket with Ben Wallace’s departure? Or do you think he’ll revert to last year’s 6.8 rebounds a game, 43% FG%, chucking 5.4 threes a game? I could really use this year’s version on my team.

]]> by: Andy http://www.fantasybasketblog.net/2006/11/30/andris-the-giant/#comment-1756 Thu, 30 Nov 2006 17:40:35 +0000 http://www.fantasybasketblog.net/2006/11/30/andris-the-giant/#comment-1756 Good stuff, DM. I do think there is a propensity for fantasy GMs to ignore the "warts" of the latest hot pickup - whether it be a center who can score 16 a game but only grabs 5 boards and doesn't block shots, or a guard who's averaging 12 points and 7 assists but doing it on 33% shooting from the field with 3 TOs a game. Yes, they can help your team, and there are few players that don't have some sort of weakness in their game, but with the "hot pickup" guys I find competing GMs are much more likely to discount those weaknesses and focus only on the big numbers in one or two categories. Whenever I pick a guy up like that I try to trade him for a less-flashy but proven fantasy commodity. Of course, there are always other factors like age, team, and minutes that come into play. Maybe it's human nature to focus on the good - towards the end of last night's Rockets-Suns game the color commentator repeatedly referred to Rafer Alston and Luther Head as being "on fire" because each of them had made a few consecutive threes during the game. In reality, though, the two of them finished a combined 11-for-30 on the night. Good stuff, DM. I do think there is a propensity for fantasy GMs to ignore the “warts” of the latest hot pickup - whether it be a center who can score 16 a game but only grabs 5 boards and doesn’t block shots, or a guard who’s averaging 12 points and 7 assists but doing it on 33% shooting from the field with 3 TOs a game.

Yes, they can help your team, and there are few players that don’t have some sort of weakness in their game, but with the “hot pickup” guys I find competing GMs are much more likely to discount those weaknesses and focus only on the big numbers in one or two categories. Whenever I pick a guy up like that I try to trade him for a less-flashy but proven fantasy commodity. Of course, there are always other factors like age, team, and minutes that come into play.

Maybe it’s human nature to focus on the good - towards the end of last night’s Rockets-Suns game the color commentator repeatedly referred to Rafer Alston and Luther Head as being “on fire” because each of them had made a few consecutive threes during the game. In reality, though, the two of them finished a combined 11-for-30 on the night.

]]> by: bublitchki http://www.fantasybasketblog.net/2006/11/30/andris-the-giant/#comment-1755 Thu, 30 Nov 2006 17:15:31 +0000 http://www.fantasybasketblog.net/2006/11/30/andris-the-giant/#comment-1755 A good, solid analysis and no doubt a welcome antidote to some of the more overheated Biedrins hype around here (of which I, too, am guilty). However, you neglected to mention what I feel is THE key factor in assessing Biedrins' future prospects: He just turned 20 years old in April. Although he has two full NBA seasons under his belt, we're looking at a 20 year old kid who is getting starters' minutes for the first time. So, far all intents and purposes, this is essentially his rookie season. And, like any other rookie, he's going to take his lumps. But, as I noted in an earlier post, he's also exhibited remarkable growth in very short order. That's why I think the Dalembert comparison is setting the bar much too low. I remember reading somewhere (Hollinger maybe?) that most prep-to-pro players continue to show improvement until age 23 after which they level off. I have no idea if that's really the case, but if it is then Biedrins' has three more years to polish his offensive game, cut down on his fouling, and- yes - improve his FT% to at least a level we can live with. A good, solid analysis and no doubt a welcome antidote to some of the more overheated Biedrins hype around here (of which I, too, am guilty).

However, you neglected to mention what I feel is THE key factor in assessing Biedrins’ future prospects:

He just turned 20 years old in April.

Although he has two full NBA seasons under his belt, we’re looking at a 20 year old kid who is getting starters’ minutes for the first time. So, far all intents and purposes, this is essentially his rookie season. And, like any other rookie, he’s going to take his lumps. But, as I noted in an earlier post, he’s also exhibited remarkable growth in very short order.

That’s why I think the Dalembert comparison is setting the bar much too low. I remember reading somewhere (Hollinger maybe?) that most prep-to-pro players continue to show improvement until age 23 after which they level off. I have no idea if that’s really the case, but if it is then Biedrins’ has three more years to polish his offensive game, cut down on his fouling, and- yes - improve his FT% to at least a level we can live with.

]]> by: S http://www.fantasybasketblog.net/2006/11/30/andris-the-giant/#comment-1754 Thu, 30 Nov 2006 16:53:41 +0000 http://www.fantasybasketblog.net/2006/11/30/andris-the-giant/#comment-1754 I'm bitter I didnt jump on the chance to pick up Andris Biedrins, and instead hung on to Josh Childress. I felt I was good at C with Howard, Yao and Okur. Now I'm wondering if I shoudl pick up Shaq since he's out there on the FA list. Actually, here are some of the guys on the FA list in my league (10 team H2H) Walton Battier Shaq Dunleavy Lue G. Hill Mobeley Stackhouse My last 2 on the bench are Tinsley (for plug-in ASTs) and SAR (nice position flexibility). Would you pick up any of the guys listed above for these guys? I’m bitter I didnt jump on the chance to pick up Andris Biedrins, and instead hung on to Josh Childress. I felt I was good at C with Howard, Yao and Okur. Now I’m wondering if I shoudl pick up Shaq since he’s out there on the FA list. Actually, here are some of the guys on the FA list in my league (10 team H2H)

Walton
Battier
Shaq
Dunleavy
Lue
G. Hill
Mobeley
Stackhouse

My last 2 on the bench are Tinsley (for plug-in ASTs) and SAR (nice position flexibility). Would you pick up any of the guys listed above for these guys?

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