I know it’s early, but last place teams are tough to just sit on.  You may have had a bad draft, a rough two weeks, whatever.  The point is that you’re ready to shake things up.  Unfortunately, most other teams aren’t ready for that quite yet.  I know that I generally like to wait a month or two into the year before I start making deals.  Still, there are guys out there who are underperforming and could be gettable if their owners are sick enough of them.  The key with this column is that if you’ve got a stinker of a squad, you’ve got nothing left to lose and you should be more willing to take on risks than those teams at the top.  Let’s take a look at who I’m talking about:

Tim Duncan
You know, the only thing more revealing than Tim Duncan being left off of yesterday’s New! Updated! Top 20! is the fact that nobody questioned me on it.  Duncan is putting up the 21/11 that we had hoped for entering the season, but an inexplicable drop in blocked shots as well as a worse-than-usual FT% is keeping Tim way down on most player raters.  Duncan’s FT% has been one of the most difficult stats to predict in fantasy over the past few years.  It makes major swings without seemingly any rhyme or reason.  But the 56.3 percent he’s shooting now has GOT to improve.  It’s a full 3.6% lower than he’s shot at any other point in his career.  His blocks should recover as well, as evidenced by his 3 last night.  If you can convince a down-on-their-luck Duncan owner to sell on the cheap, I would go for it.  Every other part of his game is going swimmingly right now and I think that by year-end he should be a Top 40 hit.  And given the lack of strong C’s right now, he’s worth at least third round value.

Gerald Wallace
Don’t say for a second that we didn’t warn you, because we absolutely did.  We called him a bust in our Overall Rankings, and placed him in the 4th tier of SF’s alongside Mike Miller and Ricky Davis.  His numbers are down across the board and he’s already missed time in two games due to injury.  That said, teams at the bottom of the standings should be looking to acquire Wallace if they don’t already have him.  He could - COULD - end up as a top-15 guy by the end of the year and if you’re looking to take a big risk this is the one to take.  On the plus side, he’s been recoving from his injuries quickly, which we couldn’t say of him before, and you should be able to get him for a 6th or 7th round value.

Baron Davis
There are two kinds of guys you should be targeting - the first is the underperforming stud that you think could turn it around, like the previous two guys.  The other is the yearly question mark that has their owners holding their breath all year long.  That’s where Baron comes in.  Other than one stinker against the Jazz, Baron has been steadily solid, shooting a higher percentage from the field, a direct effect of the with fewer threes attempted and even sporting a non-murderous FT%.  Still, he could blow up with either an injury or an argument with Don Nelson, and I know if he was on my team I’d probably sell for a fourth round value.

Emeka Okafor
Okafor falls into the Baron Davis class - overperforming risks.  There’s obviously no way he keeps up his 4-block pace, but he could certainly see his FG% stay above 50%.  He’s also going to eventually improve his FT%, I hope.  I’m an Okafor owner and If someone offered me a third round value I’d at least have to consider it.  The problem with trading for Okafor (and Duncan) is that with C’s a t such a premium you’re going to have to offer a C back in most deals for them.  But a third-round value including a C would probably get the deal done for Okafor, who could possibly continue to be a top-25 player.

** It’s also important to note that punting a category, while not often recommended, is an interesting strategy to pursue if you’ve got nothing to lose.  This is particularly true of leagues where prizes go to the top 3 or 4 teams.  If this is the route you want to go, the above guys are great places to start punting free throws.  FT% is often one of the most under-considered categories on draft day for a number of reasons, but come 2 or 3 weeks into the year and owners notice that they’re struggling in FT%, they are often more willing to let those category killers go.**

Waiver Scrounging
The other ting you should do as a last place team is constantly make moves on the waiver wire.  For example, this morning you should be able to pick up guys like Mike Dunleavy, Sean May, or Ruben Patterson.  You’re going to end up picking wrong more often than you will pick right, but all it takes is one or two right picks to really right your ship.  The teams at the bottom of your league should be leading the league in transactions by a large margin.

Continuing a tradition from last year, we’re gonna take a look at the best of the best on a monthly basis.  Just like our season previews, this is based on a 8-category league (i.e. no turnovers).  I’m also going to list where they were on our rankings going into the year.  Ready?  OK:

1. Shawn Marion, F (Preseason: 2) - It is absolute shenanigans that The Matrix fell to DM at the 4th pick in our draft and I will curse the guys that took Kobe and KG before him until the end of the year.  Over 1.5 steals, blocks, and threes, over 50/80% shooting, this guy is the best in the league.  Period.  I know that KG is outperforming Marion so far, but Marion is 2 years younger, shooting more from the arc than ever before (and they’ll start falling eventually), and possibly UNDERperforming in boards and steals.  Yikes.

2. LeBron James, SF (1) - Free throws, LeBron, free throws!  He’s the only guy right now with a legitimate shot at displacing Marion from the top spot but it all depends on what he does at the line.  Also, is it safe to assume that we can forget about the triple-double average?  On the plus side, those blocks are nice to see. 

3. Kevin Garnett, F (3) - What happened to the passing numbers? Those will improve, but his FT% will drop eventually as well.  I like KG as a sell-high candidate right now, actually.  I just have a bad feeling about him even though he’s playing as well as ever right now.

4. Gilbert Arenas, PG (6) - I don’t think that his FT% is a fluke.  He dedicated himself to his free throws after the playoffs disaster and should end the season over 90%.  The assists, on the other hand, may or may not be for real.

5. Dirk Nowitzki, F (4) - The defensive numbers are a concern but I think they should correct themselves over time.  Dirk is just going to be a steady force, and that’s why you take him in the first half of the first round.

6. Yao Ming, C (9) - We’ve seen him go on runs like this before.  The feet are still a concern, but right now just enjoy the ride.  If you can swing him in a one-for-one with any of the above players, though, you should do it.

7. Vince Carter, G/F (19) - Of course we all saw this coming, but he’s still such an injury risk.  Carter and Yao could be the best 2 fantasy players in the league this year, but you won’t see them getting much higher on this list because of that risk.

8. Kobe Bryant, SG (5) - Give him time, he’ll be fine.  The emergence of some of his supporting cast won’t really hurt his stats - remember, he was pretty sweet even when the diesel was taking up a ton of the offense.

9. Dwyane Wade, G (8) - The three’s are coming, slowly, but at the expense of his FG%.  He’s also dropped considerably in boards, but they should come around.  Wade may be a decent buy-low right now (18 on ESPN PR), but I’m still concerned about fatigue.

10. Steve Nash, PG (10) - This is right where he’ll be all year.

11. Lamar Odom, F (25) - Odom has buy-fake-high written all over him.  DM wrote a good piece on that theory a while back but I can’t find it.  Basically, his owners will be looking to sell high on him, but the truth is he’s perfectly capable of putting up numbers like this all year long.  If you can get him for a mid-second rounder like Jermaine O’Neal or Jason Kidd, it’s worth considering.

12. Elton Brand, C (6) - Did all the other Elton owners let out a big exhale after his game Sunday night? I know I sure did.  He’s still not shooting very much and his FT% has me worried, but last night went a long way in convincing me that he’ll right the ship.

13. Ray Allen, SG (12) - Can 3 3’s a game be a disappointment?  Of course not.  Let’s hope the rebounds are an anomaly and not a trend, though.

14. Michael Redd, GF (24) - Even before his 57-point outburst, Redd was off to a tremendous start.  What happened to his suggestion that he was going to score less this year?

15. Joe Johnson, G (23) - Over 25 points in every game so far and a monster in threes.  Is he a sell-high candidate?

16.  Paul Pierce, GF (10) - He belongs higher than this, but this is his punishment for shooting 67% from the stripe so far.  The rebounds are nothing short of astounding, though.  Everything should even out in the end for Pierce.

17.  Allen Iverson, G (14) - I know we’re not counting turnovers here, but 5.2 per game?  Zoinks.  The steals will come around eventually for AI and everything else seems par for the course.

18.  Jason Kidd, PG (22) - A bigger triple-double threat than Lebron, it seems like he’s refusing to age more than we thought he would.

19. Chris Paul, PG (13) - His eye-catching stats are nice (19/9, 51% FG) but what’s going on with the FT%, 3’s, and steals?  Paul could be in for another brilliant real-life season but may disappoint fantasy owners.

20.  Zack Randolph, PF (71) - Fine.  There.  Are you happy?

Here’s the first of what could be a new column. We play in what I think is a good league to use as a barometer of what’s going on in the fantasy landscape. It’s a very competitive 12-team league, the usual 10 starters, a three-person bench, 8 category cumulative roto, with a first-come, first-served free agent list. So this should give you an idea of who’s been picked up, dropped, traded, and thoughts on those players.

November 12
Pickup: LaMarcus Aldridge
Drop: Delonte West

Guess BV liked what he saw from Aldridge in the rookie’s debut last night against the Mavs. He looked like he belonged, that’s for sure, and was especially spry compared to the slow-footed Jamaal Magloire. They both played 19 minutes and it was Aldridge out there in crunch time against the defending Western Conference champs. He put up 10 and 8, with 6 of those boards coming on the offensive end. It was an impressive debut and he could be in for more PT, but that’s no sure thing. But it sure looks like Magloire’s days as a fantasy factor are over. He barely resembles the player who put up 14 and 10 in 03-04. We’ll see what happens when Joel Przybilla comes back, but this could be a situation that’s a fantasy disaster. More on West below.

Trade: Mike Bibby, Zaza Pachuila
Trade: Jameer Nelson, Charlie Villanueva

An interesting deal, here. From the looks of things, the team getting Bibby/Pachulia is the clear winner, since they got the best player in the deal (Bibby) and a quality big man in Pachulia. But I think it’s more even than that. I’m a big Bibby fan, and while his shooting will certainly improve, he’s dropped off enough over the past couple years that what once was a strength is now a slight weakness. Still, he’s a perfectly good bet for 20/3.5/6 with a bunch of 3s and some steals. Pachulia seems to be a reasonable sell high candidate at this point; he got off to a similarly fast start last year before dropping off a bit. Lorenzen Wright has been a non-factor and it could be until Marvin Williams returns that Pachulia’s value takes a serious hit. Solid #2 center. Jameer Nelson seems to have held off the first threat by Carlos Arroyo and has responded with three straight strong outings. I’m still a believer in him, although he’s as much a SG as a PG. Villanueva will have his off games, but like him this year. He loves to shoot and he gets his rebounds. Even if he doesn’t excel at 3s, steals or blocks, he should get enough to give him plenty of value as long as he maintains his 15 and 8, which I expect him to do, if not improve upon.

Pickup: Jerry Stackhouse
Drop: Stephen Jackson

Stackhouse has filled in quite nicely for Josh Howard so far, averaging 17/3/4.3 with 1 3 and a surprising 2.3 steals in a healthy 36.3 mpg. The Mavs have reeled off a couple of wins in a row with all of the offense going through Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry and Stackhouse, so feel free to get Stackhouse in your lineup and take advantage of this opportunity before Howard comes back. Howard won’t be in any danger of losing his starting job, so don’t worry if you have him. Jackson is an interesting drop. He’s always been a terrible shooter, but he won’t stay this bad. His looming court date could cost him some PT, but more often than not players avoid missing time in situations like these. Jackson could be the exception for all his past transgressions. On the court, Danny Granger could be surpassing Jackson as Indiana’s #3 option behind Jermaine O’Neal and Al Harrington, but Jackson should still be a low-upside source of 3s and steals, probably worth a bench spot in most leagues as long as he’s not incarcerated.

Pickup: Jeff Foster
Drop: Brent Barry

This team obviously feels the need to have a veteran white guy on its bench. Barry had a few hot games where he couldn’t miss from downtown, but he’s just not a fantasy option coming off the San Antonio bench. Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are the only Spurs who are reliable fantasy options, and that’s how it’s going to be all year unless they get devastated by injuries. That’s just how it is. Don’t bother with anyone else. Hard to understand why Foster was picked up. Even when Jermaine O’Neal was out Foster didn’t get the start, so that should mean he’s not even worth keeping an eye on. He’s certainly one of the best rate rebounders in the league, but you’ve gotta be real desperate to go after him.

November 11
Pickup: Stromile Swift
Drop: Eddie Jones

One Grizz for another Grizz. Swift started in the middle in just his second game back, and it wasn’t the greatest outing, but he’s worth a roster spot, especially at the expense of Eddie Jones who looks to have a whole utensil set sticking out of his back at this point. (I jettisoned him just a few days into the season, myself.) It would be silly to expect too much from Swift, but he did work his way up to 30 minutes last night. He has shown an ability to block shots, so he could have some value. But remember, this is his seventh season in the league. It would be surprising if he ever becomes more than an inconsistent #2 center for fantasy purposes. Jones might heat up as the season goes on, but he’s been horrible and has topped 30 minutes just twice in six games. He belongs on the free agent list. Mike Miller is the only member of the Grizzlies that can be trusted right now.

Pickup: Delonte West
Drop: Jalen Rose

This was a move by BV, basically using a free roster spot to take a shot on a guy who was a top contributor last year and might have some short term value. Wally Szczerbiak missed Saturday night’s game with an ass, so West took his spot in the starting lineup. He did a nice job in 39 minutes – 12/5/4 with a block and a pair of 3s – and as long as he’s starting, he certainly has a bit of value. But he’s also the kind of guy you can let go right away if something else comes along that you like, as BV did. Rose was a pure speculation pickup, thinking he might be able to be this year’s Tim Thomas. Not happening now, not likely to happen later.

Pickup: Travis Outlaw
Drop: Nene Hilario

Swapping out a guy who may have some short-term value due to an injury for another who looks to be missing out on his chance at having some short-term value due to an injury. Brandon Roy is out for at least a week, likely more, and Outlaw has a chance to reap the fantasy benefits, although it doesn’t look too likely. He did put up 16 and 6 with a staggering 6 blocks in 32 minutes after Roy left early on Saturday, but Martell Webster seems to be Nate McMillian’s choice to replace Roy in the starting lineup. Outlaw has received more minutes, but between those two and Juan Dixon there are plenty of bodies to replace Roy, and McMillian can just ride the hot hand each night. As for Nene, his most recent knee injury might not be too serious, but it seems clear that he’s nowhere near playing 30+ minutes in a starting role with Kenyon Martin out.

Pickup: Antoine Wright
Drop: Channing Frye

A quick pickup after news broke that Richard Jefferson could be out for up to two months. A month or so ago you’d see this transaction and think there was some sort of typo, but it makes sense despite Wright scoring just a single point in 34 minutes on Sunday. After being mostly invisible in his rookie season Wright lit it up in the preseason and it has carried over into the regular season. In the two games prior to Sunday he averaged 15.5 ppg with 2 3s in 29.5 mpg. He’s replacing Jefferson in the starting lineup, but as he proved yesterday, that doesn’t mean he’s automatically getting Jefferson’s numbers. Someone will need to pick up the scoring slack in New Jersey, though. Vince Carter’s already about maxed out at what he can do and Kidd is still obviously more of a distributor. Look for Nenad Krstic to see an expanded role, as he attempted 18 shots yesterday, so he should be an especially strong play for the next month. If Wright can maintain consistent minutes, it’s not unreasonable to expect around 12 ppg with some 3s. If you picked up Wright, be encouraged by the fact that even though Marcus Williams and Bostjan Nachbar were much more effective yesterday, Wright still saw more minutes. As for Frye, he’s been absolutely terrible and even in a league in which 156 players are on rosters, it’s a fine move to drop him. He’s certainly worth keeping an eye on, but he’s been bad enough to stay away from for the time being. His 4-point, 5-foul, 13-minute performance Saturday night might be the final straw for Isiah. We’ll see.

November 10
Pickup: Kendrick Perkins
Drop: Theo Ratliff

This is a move I made, and it was after Perkins strong effort off the bench Friday night. I made the opposite move a few days earlier (I picked up Perkins after he was dropped a few days earlier), but it was apparent that in Ratliff’s first few games back he’s not going to be a long-term answer in the middle for the Celtics. Sure enough he was back inactive on Saturday night. Perkins had a disappointing first couple weeks, but he’s still the same guy who I liked coming into the season and was a 10^th round pick. I’m desperate for center help with Joel Przybilla already out and Jermaine O’Neal already shaky. Perkins’ solid outing Saturday night has me hoping that he might be able to fulfill those expectations of being a #2 center. More realistically, he’s better served as a #3 center to plug in when one of your top two goes down, at least for the time being.

Pickup: Nene Hilario
Drop: Al Jefferson

After K-Mart got hurt and before Nene went down. It was worth a shot, he did have the most upside of that handful of Denver reserve PFs. As for Jefferson, he was playing solid ball but is going to need to work his way back into shape and into the rotation when he comes back. He could still be a factor in the second half of the season, so be ready to grab him when it looks like he’s ready to come back. I’ve always been skeptical of Jefferson, but that had more to do with his perceived value than actual talent.

Pickup: Mickael Pietrus
Drop: Damon Stoudamire

It’s easy to get the feeling that Don Nelson is going to make it so that plenty of Warriors will be on and off the free agent list all season. Pietrus was great in his most recent start, going for 18/5/5 with 4 3s and a steal in a win over NOK. He’s shooting out of his mind right now, 53% from the field and 50% from long range. His career averages are 42% and 34%. In other words, enjoy it while you can. Maybe this is when he’s finally putting it together, but I’m not buying it. And just Saturday night, he was back coming off the bench, albeit with an efficient 13 points in 20 minutes. Stoudamire’s been awful, and he might be done, but he might just be off to a slow start. He got off to a similarly pathetic start last year – 30% shooting in his first seven games – but picked it up a bit before going down for the year. Chucky Atkins replaced him in the starting lineup last night and Stoudamire promptly had his best outing of the year. I’m going to keep my eye on both of them, but it’s a situation to avoid for now.

November 9
Pickup: David Lee
Drop: Andres Nocioni

One bench guy who could be starting soon for another bench guy who doesn’t seem like that opportunity will be there soon. We talked about Frye’s impossibly bad play, and it might just be a matter of time until Lee takes his place in the lineup. Lee had another solid game Saturday night, needing just 5 shots to get his 8 points, while also grabbing 8 boards and 2 steals in 22 minutes. Makes you wonder why the Knicks gave $30 million to Jared Jeffries when Lee already does whatever Jeffries can do, but a lot better. It’s hard to know what Isiah will do, but Lee has earned his shot. He’ll be a great source of boards and steals should his opportunity come, and he’s a high percentage, if low volume shooter. Nocioni’s playing fine, even if he’s not hitting 3s like he was at the end of the season last year. But with Luol Deng seemingly entrenched as the starter at the SF position, Nocioni’s best chance of starting would be to replace P.J. Brown. It makes sense, but that doesn’t mean Skiles will do it. He’s long been fond of starting one player at PF (Malik Allen, anyone?) and ending the game with someone else. Monitor Nocioni, but he’s not valuable right now.

Pickup: Monta Ellis
Drop: Earl Boykins

It’s looking good for Monta Ellis. Jason Richardson returned to the starting lineup Saturday night, but Ellis kept his starting spot as Pietrus and Mike Dunleavy came off the bench. Ellis didn’t have his best game – 12/2/4 with 4 turnovers in 29 minutes – but it was a blowout win for the Warriors, which bodes well for his chances to stay in the starting lineup moving forward. Ellis looks to be a player in the Ben Gordon mold – not much more than points, but he can get them in bunches. He’s not a gunner from long range, but takes enough to be good for around 1.5 per game if he keeps starting. None of his other numbers jump out, but if the minutes are there, the value is too. Again, though, Golden State can’t really be trusted yet. Boykins is Denver’s second leading scorer so far, and his 4.8 apg are nice, but his shooting has been just brutal. He’s strictly a 25-28 mpg player and doesn’t have much upside beyond what he’s doing now.

Happy Veterans’ Day everyone.  I’d like to express my personal gratitude to NBA veterans Gary Payton, Sam Cassell, Alonzo Mourning, and Eddie Jones for their dedicated service and for playing way too long past their prime.  God Bless America and the NBA (excluding the Toronto Raptors of course).
Let’s take a look at next week:

Four games: Boston, Chicago, Cleveland, New Jersey, New York, Portland, San Antonio, Seattle.

Three Games: Charlotte, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Golden State, Houston, Indiana, Memphis, Miami, Milwaukee, Minnesota, New Orleans, Orlando, Philadelphia, Sacramento, Toronto, Utah, Washington.

Two Games: Atlanta, LA Clippers, LA Lakers, Phoenix.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:

Ryan Gomes, F:  Al Jefferson was off to a decent start this season, but he decided to pull a “Ben Roethlisberger” and have an emergency appendectomy, sidelining him for 2-3 weeks.  Let’s just hope Jefferson doesn’t like to cruise at high speeds on his motorcycle in his free time.  Gomes’ value jumps up in the short term, as he will see the bulk of the minutes at PF.    It’s fair to expect averages of 12/8/2 as long as Big Al is out.  Gomes is a smart play with four good matchups next week (ORL, IND, POR, @NY)

Monta Ellis, G:  The Warriors second leading scorer (16.8ppg), Ellis was inserted into Don Nelson’s starting lineup last night in place of Jason Richardson.  J-Rich’s surgically repaired right knee is apparently not holding up too well.  Even if he returns soon, Richardson will likely be limited and Ellis will pick up the slack.  The second-year guard is a good call with the Warriors hitting the hardwood four times next week.

Brevin Knight, PG:  It seems like I count him out every year and then he manages to prove me wrong by remaining a starter and dishing the assists (7.0) and racking up steals (2.5).  Knight and second-year man Ray Felton have both been starting in Charlotte’s backcourt.  Although Felton is supposed to be the one putting up points, BK has actually been outperforming the former Tar Heel on offense (16.3 vs. 13.8 ppg).  As long as Brevin is in the Bobcat’s starting lineup, he needs to be in yours.

Jamal Crawford, SG:  When a player goes down, a teammate must step up.  That’s just one of the fundamental laws of fantasy basketball.  DM discussed Crawford’s breakout game (35/6/7 w/ 4 treys) the other night starting in place of injured Stevie Francis.  Crawford is one of fantasy hoops best players without a starting gig.  When given the minutes he simply produces.  As a bona fide scorer, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Crawford average 18/3/5 with 2 threes as a starter.  Those are 4th round-type numbers coming from someone who may be available in your league’s free agent pool. You should scoop him up immediately and plug him in for four tilts next week. 

Jamaal Magloire, C: Big and scrappy, not too flashy.  In fantasy we don’t care about flash we just need some solid contributions in certain categories from the big man.  Jam Master Mags, as I like to call him, has seen an increase in playing time since replacing starter Joel Przybilla (abdominal strain) at center the last three games.  With starter’s minutes, he should approach a double-double and a blocked shot per night.  If you’re in need of a second center, Jam is not a bad option with four games next week.

Donyell Marshall, F:  We’re definitely past the days when Donyell would fill up the statsheet and be a monster on the boards, but in 2006 he’s still got some value coming off the bench in Cleveland.   Currently averaging 12/4/1 with 2 threes, Donyell is an asset from long range and could always get hot and drop 20 and 10 one night.  Take a shot with Marshmallow… the Cavs have four nice matchups coming up (@NY, POR, MIN, @WAS).

Earl Watson, PG:  I’ve never been one to recommend backup PGs, but you could do worse than Watson this week.  He’s averaging 8/3/5 with a three and 1.6 steals thus far.  He’s one of those guys that if he gets a hot hand, coach Bob Hill won’t hesitate keeping him in the game for extended minutes.  He’ll forever be referred to as the team’s proverbial “spark-plug,” but he might just jumpstart your fantasy squad this week.  With four games on tap, you gotta give him the nod over guys like Shaun Livingston (2 games), Smush Parker (2), and Speedy Claxton (2).

Finally, with only two games on the schedule, you probably want to bench any Lakers not named Kobe and any Suns not named Nash or the Matrix.

We’re just over a week into the season and the injuries are starting to pile up. Plenty of players who are owned in almost all leagues have missed games over the past few days; some of these are long-term, some short-tern, some unknown. Where there’s injury there’s opportunity, but it’s not always the same type of opportunity. Let’s take a look at some of the different types of situations that arise when a player goes down and some recent examples. If you can identify what type it’s going to be when an injury hits, it can help you quickly decide whether to make any roster moves.

Marginal to Certain
Last night showed two fine examples of players that already had decent roles on their teams, but really came through when seeing some extra time. In New York, Steve Francis’s ankle injury opened the door for Jamal Crawford to enter the starting lineup. Crawford had been ice cold to start the season (10-for-47, 21%) but had still played at least 27 minutes in three of four games. He’s always been a terrible shooter, but that hasn’t stopped him from having plenty of value when getting the minutes. Last night he certainly got the minutes, and put up one of the best lines of the year so far with 35/6/7 with 4 3s and 2 steals (and 7 turnovers) in 43 minutes. Crawford was on the verge of having value before last night; if he kept getting around 30 minutes, he was going to start putting up some numbers. But as long as Francis is out, Crawford goes from being a shaky option to a sure thing. Not all games will be like last night, of course, but Crawford is the type of player who thrives with consistent minutes. He was out of the starting lineup for much of last year but still put up some decent number, but remember what happened when he started the last 11 games in April?

Ryan Gomes hadn’t been able to build on his second-half breakout from last season despite starting two of the Celtics first three games and seeing 30 minutes in the other. He was on fantasy radars because he was one of those players who had proven he could produce and was in that 25-30 minute netherworld. But with Al Jefferson out for at least 3 weeks after an appendectomy, Gomes should get a chance to put up numbers similar to what he did last season. Jefferson was playing some solid ball in the first three games and his minutes were slowly climbing from 22 to 28 to 30. He was on the verge of having some value, but now that should be transferred to Gomes, who certainly disappoint last night. It was probably one of the least remarkable triple-doubles in recent memory – 10/12/10 on 5-of-12 and 0-for-1 shooting with just 1 block to add – but it was a triple-double nonetheless. Gomes saw 38 minutes last night (thanks for those five extras, overtime), but 33 minutes sounds about right for as long as Jefferson is out. Expect Kenny Thomas-type numbers – solid points, boards and percentages. And speaking of Thomas, there’s another situation where two borderline guys – Thomas and Shareef Abdur-Rahim – become instantly start-worthy with the absence of Brad Miller. (Remember when I said I had an ominous feeling about Brad Miller right before the season started? Don’t say I didn’t warn you.)

None to Ton
There wasn’t much reason for Alonzo Mourning to be on any roster at the beginning of the season, unless you play in an especially deep league. He played 26 total minutes in the season’s first two games and has always been a 15-20 minute player when coming off the bench. But once Shaquille O’Neal went down with a bruised knee, he became a no-brainer pickup. This could be one of those classic “day-to-day” injuries that ends up lingering for a while. O’Neal also went down after two games last year – it was a more definitive injury that time – and Mourning stepped in to start the next 19 contests, in which he blocked a staggering 74 shots. His first start this year was a 15-minute clunker, but Tuesday against Seattle was what should more normal when he starts. He put up 13 and 6 with 4 blocks on 5-of-7 and 3-of-6 shooting, a very typical outing for Mourning in 30 minutes. He’s going to hurt you at the line, but he should be absolutely dominant in blocks. But when Shaq comes back, ‘Zo will go back to being a player without much value at all.

Rich Get Richer
A day after being named the #1 Guy Back With a Vengeance by the Sports Guy, Kenyon Martin is going right back to the operating table for surgery on his other knee. No word yet on how long he’ll be out, but don’t expect Martin back any time soon. And now that he has two bad knees, it’s certainly possible that we’ve seen the best of Martin. Which wasn’t even that great to begin with. Good thing for Nuggets fans he’s not locked in for four more seasons at the league maximum. Oh, shit. In any case, it’s hard to see a single beneficiary in this situation. The Nuggets have a deep frontcourt – of admittedly fragile players – so they can handle a single loss up front better than most teams, and they’ll probably spread the extra minutes out. Eduardo Najera got the start last night and played 25 minutes, Nene played 19 and Joe Smith even got off the bench and played 15 minutes. If those numbers hold, it won’t be good for anyone. Fantasy owners might like to see Nene get a shot, since Najera’s never been a fantasy factor and Smith is over the hill. But Nene is still working his way back into shape and might not be ready for the increased role. Even if he is, George Karl might want to stick with the veteran Najera, for whatever those reasons are that coaches like to stick with veterans at the expense of possible fantasy contributors.

Unless Nene somehow works his way into 30+ minutes per game – and let’s be honest, it’s been since the end of 2004 since he’s really been any good – there’s production to be filled and it won’t be filled by the replacements. Where will it go? In cases like this, it often goes to the top and last night was only one game, but that’s what happened. Carmelo Anthony simply took on a bigger role, going for 37/6/8 while attempting 26 shots and 18 free throws in 40 minutes. The top players almost always get a least a trickle down when injuries hit anyway. In Dallas, Jerry Stackhouse looks to be taking Josh Howard’s starting role over the next couple weeks and should have a bit of value, but look for more games such as last night’s where Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry were clearly the top options. And man, that Dallas/Phoenix game tonight is going to be a couple of desperate teams, huh?

I’ve been noticing a trend in the box scores lately.  You remember how there used to be a Center on the court at all times?  Well not anymore.  The “small lineup” can be viewed two ways.  In one, you’re basically playing no center, and instead playing some combo of guards and forwards.  In another, one of the forwards is the de facto “center” even though, really, they’re not playing like one, but somebody has to be in the middle and so that guy is the center.

Unfortunately, right now, it looks like for fantasy purposes you have to look at it the first way.  That means that at an already-thin position, you’re seeing minutes disappearing into thin air right before your eyes.  Let’s take a look at a couple of monday night’s games to show you what I mean:

Portland vs. LA Clippers:  In this game, Portland was dealing with major injury issues at Center, and Jamaal Magloire was the only guy who qualified at C who was active.  Nonetheless, Magloire only played 22 minutes, with the remaining 26 minutes available at C disappearing.  For the Clippers, Chris Kaman started at C, and played 31 minutes.  Paul Davis, Aaron Williams, and Zeljko Rebraca also qualify at C, but none played.  Another 17 minutes up in smoke.

Sacramento vs. Minnesota: Sacramento, like Portland, is dealing with major injury issues at C.  But rather than pulling a big man off the street and plugging him in the lineup, the Kings simply went small - and won.  The Kings managed to play a full game without a single minute being logged by either of their qualified C’s, Vitaly Potapenko and Brad Miller.  Granted, Shareef Abdur-Rahim or Kenny Thomas played “center” most of the game, but they won’t qualify there for at least another week or two.  48 available center minutes, none used.  On the Timberwolves, Mark Blount played 34 minutes, while Mark Madsen, Eddie Griffin and Vin Baker stayed off the court.  Another 12 minutes were lost into the center abyss.

So, in those two games, there were 192 available C minutes, and only 87 were used - a measley 45%.  Now, this isn’t always the case - for example, Utah played Mehmet Okur and Carlos Boozer a combined 73 minutes.  But it’s happening more often than not - Detroit gave it’s “only center” Nazr Mohammed just 18 minutes, while Dallas saw C’s DeSagana Diop and Erik Dampier combine for only 26.

So what does this phenomenon mean?  More specifically, what does it mean for those of us in leagues where we start 2 centers?  Well, obviously, the first thing it means is that centers could be even more tough to find if this trend continues.  But you don’t need me to tell you that a good center is hard to find.  Is there anything that this trend could do to HELP your team?

Well, yes - maybe.  The other thing that it COULD mean is that maybe some other folks will start qualifying at C.  I mean, there’s five guys out there on the court, right?  And so someone has to qualify as a C, right?  And qualifying at C gives a guy a boost in value.  So let’s look at who COULD see a boost in value.  If you think they’ll qualify at C eventually, that might make them more valuable to you than they are to their owners, who aren’t expecting that:

Already sweet, could be sweeter: Elton Brand, Rasheed Wallace, Dwight Howard, Drew Gooden, Udonis Haslem, Zack Randolph.

Just so-so now, but could be sweet: Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Al Jefferson, Kenon Martin.

This would make them worth owning, probably: Kenny Thomas, Shelden Williams, Antonio McDyess.

 So, the question is, are these guys going to qualify at C?  Given how arbitrary positions are assigned in the fantasy world, it’s tough to say.  I’m certainly not going to make any predictions.  But it’s definitely going to be a trend worth watching this season.

It’s pretty easy to get over-excited about early-season performances from veterans who are sure to return to form (Rasheed Wallace, anyone?).  But rookies who get off to a hot start are a totally different matter.  Rookies play a completely different game in the NBA than they did in college, and right now we’re learning everything we can about these guys.  With almost a full week under our belts I thought it would be a good idea to check in on our rookie class and see who’s worth playing, owning, or dumping.

Every Day Starters

Brandon Roy, G, POR - Three games in, Roy had been as good as advertised.  He’d seen over 35 mpg and seemed to be only safe bet in the Portland backcourt.  We can’t say it enough - here at FBB we preach minutes over everything else, and until last night, Roy was delivering in that category.  Last night was a different story, as Roy had his first bad game, saw only 14 minutes and came out complaining of a sore Achilles.  Be careful - just like we don’t know much about how these guys will look on the stat sheet, we also don’t know how well they play through injuries.  Also Of concern is his lack of any defensive stats, but those should come.  He’s shooting great from the stripe and at least attempting shots from long range.  If healthy, Roy is a must-start despite his FG% woes, and is living up to his ROY hype so far.

Adam Morrison, F, CHA - Remember what we said about minutes?  Morrison and Roy are the only guys seeing over 30 mpg (actually, the only ones seeing over 25) and it’s no coincidence that we can’t recommend sitting them.  Morrison is what we thought he would be - an all-offense, no-anything else kinda guy.  Still, he’s looked comfortable from three point range and should be good for at least 15 and 2 threes a night, and you can’t sit numbers like that.

Rudy Gay, F, MEM - I know, right now Gay is not in the same class as the other two guys.  Plus, I have him on my squad so there’s no way I can be objective.  Gay is going to be very much like Charlie Villanueva last year - he is certainly going to have his down games, but you just have to start him every night.  Trying to guess which games he’ll have 4 blocks and which ones he’ll have 4 points is just going to be impossible.  But his ability to contribute in both defensive categories as well as from long range means you can’t bench him.  He’ll have his ups and downs but in the end he’ll average out just fine.  I hope.

Worth A Bench Spot
Let me take a second to talk about bench spots.  If you have a rookie on your bench, it had better be because you forsee him being a fantasy starter sometime soon.  Guys like Andrea Bargnani are just too far away.  Guys like Marcus Williams need established starters to get hurt.  And guys like Ty Thomas just won’t see the consistent minutes they need to be valuable.  Here are guys worth a bench spot now because it’s realistic to think they’ll have value in the near future:

Rajon Rondo, G, BOS - Rondo may not be worth playing right now but he’s come out of the blocks pretty well and could be earning himself a starting spot sometime soon.  It’s not like Sebastian Telfair has a death grip on it.  Rondo has so far reminded me of TJ Ford, but with a better spine.

Craig Smith, F, MIN - 10, 16, 22.  That’s a minutes trend that I liked over his first three games.  He fell to 14 last last night but that looked to be foul-trouble related.  He’s obviously doing something that the T-Wolves like, and who am I to argue?  I’m not sold that he’ll have value down the line, but he’s certainly worth a bench spot now until he proves otherwise.

Worth Keeping an Eye On
Jorge Garbajosa, F, TOR - Garbajosa has been a disaster from the floor so far, but still has seen 20 mpg and has shown some positive signs - he looks to be a hawk when it comes to steals, and he’s not averse to threes.  If he starts shooting better he could start earning more minutes.  He’s likely sitting on your waiver wire, but the second he has a good game he’ll be worth picking up.

LaMarcus Aldridge, F, POR - As Joel Przybilla and Jamaal Magloire fight to stay on the bench, Aldridge will be given every opportunity to grab minutes at C when he returns.  Again, not worth a spot on your roster yet, but upon his return?  Perhaps.

The first week of the season is in the books, some teams have played up to four games, so it’s time to start trying to identify some early trends. Let’s look at some situations that may be on your mind.

I wasn’t too concerned about Boris Diaw coming into the season, even though he was coming off an out-of-nowhere career season and the Suns were going to be integrating Amare Stoudemire back into the offense. He was just too integral a part of the Suns success last year to think that he’d suddenly get lost in the shuffle, especially after they committed to him long term in the offseason. How do I feel about him now? Not as good, obviously. It was encouraging to see him back in the starting lineup on Saturday, just one night after he came off the bench and saw only 16 minutes. But he’s still out of sorts, as he hasn’t registered an assist in consecutive games. For all the talk about Amare Stoudemire impacting his numbers, it may be that Kurt Thomas is actually stealing his thunder. Diaw flourished as the starting center for the Suns last year, but with Thomas doing a fine job of manning the middle, Diaw’s playing a bit out of his comfort zone.

So what to do? Relax, that’s what. You’re not going to do something ridiculous like drop your third/fourth/fifth round pick after a single week. That’s just not an option. You can look into trading him, but there’s no way you’re going to get equal value. So just try to ride it out. It’s not like Phoenix is succeeding with Diaw playing at a subpar level. The team is off to a 1-3 start, so things aren’t exactly clicking for the Suns. You do have to worry that there are a whole lot of capable bodies for a finite number of minutes. At this point, only two players on the Suns are sure things, those obviously being Steve Nash and Shawn Marion. Leandro Barbosa and Kurt Thomas are off to hot starts; Raja Bell, Stoudemire and Diaw are not. That’s not to mention Marcus Banks and James Jones, or the newly signed Jalen Rose, or Jumaine Jones, who hasn’t taken off his warm ups yet. As long as Diaw stays in the starting lineup, things are bound to get better. He might stay around the 30 mpg mark as opposed to 35, but if he can string together a couple of consecutive 16/7/9 games, he should win back the trust of D’Antoni and fantasy owners alike. Remember, everybody has bad weeks; sometimes they just happen at the beginning of the season.

I also wasn’t too concerned about Stephon Marbury and took him in the fourth round of my draft. How do I feel now? I’m worried, I’ll admit. But I’m still hopeful. Marbury was simply awful on Saturday night, shooting 1-of-9 and turning the ball over 6 times while registering just a single assist. It doesn’t get any worse than that. On top of that, Steve Francis exploded for 25 points while Nate Robinson continued his sparkplug ways that make him perhaps the only player the fans in MSG actually enjoy cheering for. Still, the only game the Knicks won this year was the game Marbury played well in, as he registered 19 and 8 in the season opener. He also played 46 minutes in that game, 41 in regulation. And he played 38 in the next game after dropping to just 26 in the pathetic Saturday outing. It’s hard to see Isiah giving up on Marbury; at the same time it’s hard to see him keeping Marbury out there on nights when he clearly doesn’t have it, especially with capable guys like Francis, Robinson and Jamal Crawford around. This is going to limit his value. One of the best things about the true superstars is that even on off nights, they are going to out there getting their minutes no matter what, and will be contributing in other ways. A good example of this was Gilbert Arenas on opening night, when he shot just 2-of-12 and scored 7 points. He was still out there for 38 minutes and was able to rack up 11 assists, 5 boards and 2 steals. Marbury likely won’t have the same kind of leeway. Again, you just have to ride this out and hope for the best.

The Warriors are just 1-2, but they are pretty much a mess. Monta Ellis is leading the team in scoring and Mickael Pietrus in rebounding. That’s not right. Jason Richardson is clearly not there yet, Baron Davis is up to his old tricks of hitting about one of three from the field and two of three from the line, something’s wrong with Troy Murphy and Mike Dunleavy is, well, still Mike Dunleavy. Those four players are all making obscene amounts of money, so you’d think that the Warriors would have no choice to play them. But Don Nelson’s in charge and he might decide to shake things up. He might not have a choice, especially since some of the other players on this team are playing so well. Andris Biedrins joined the starting lineup for the team’s blowout loss to the Jazz and looks to have at least some short-term value. We’re longtime Biedrins fans, as he’s shown great ability to board and block in his limited opportunities in his first two years. Still, I’m not convinced he’s going to be a long-term answer for the Warriors, or at least I’m not convinced Don Nelson sees him as one. He’s actually sort of what they need, a player who does the gritty thing and absolutely never looks for his own shot. So he’s worth grabbing and seeing how this shakes out, but don’t feel bad or surprised if you end up throwing him back out there in a few weeks.

I took a flier on Ike Diogu in our 12×13 league over the weekend, jettisoning Eddie Jones for him. Jones looks terrible and doesn’t seem to be taking advantage of the opportunity to assert himself as a main option on the Grizzlies. I’m pretty sure I’m the biggest Jones fan in my league; if I want him back, I bet I could get him. Diogu has played 22 or 23 minutes in each game so far, and I figure that Murphy, Biedrins and Adonal Foyle have all started at center so far, maybe Diogu’s chance isn’t far behind. He’s a great scorer, that much is clear. If Nelson’s just trying to shake things up, or Murphy needs some time off, Diogu could get the call. More of a hunch here than anything. Pietrus started the season opener and has seen decent time off the bench in the past two, but I’d stay away from him. I picked him up when he became a starter last year, watched many of his games, and he’s just a disaster out there. He is playing for a contract this year, but it’s hard to see Nelson becoming too infatuated with him. As for Ellis, he’s a dynamo, that’s for sure. He’s all SG and no PG, so let’s get that clear. He can score, but Richardson and Davis remain the two biggest roadblocks to PT on this team. As is the basic refrain of this column, if you own those guys, there’s not much you can do at this point. It’s a combustible situation, and the Warriors have a very tough back-to-back tonight and tomorrow, first at winless Dallas, then in Oklahoma City for the Hornets first game there this season. So the ugliness may continue, and then who knows what will happen?

Welcome back to another season of the weekly Head-to-Head’s Up column, where we take a look at upcoming games and recommend starting a handful of players you may otherwise not have in your head-to-head fantasy lineups.  Matchups, recent trends, and the number of games on the schedule all factor into the equation.  Let’s look ahead to the first full week (11/6-11/12) of the 2006-07 NBA season:

Four games: Dallas, Detroit, Golden State, Houston, Indiana, LA Lakers, Milwaukee, New Orleans, New York, Orlando, Portland, Seattle, Utah, Washington.

Three Games: Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Denver, LA Clippers, Memphis, Miami, Minnesota, New Jersey, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Sacramento, San Antonio, Toronto.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:
Quentin Richardson, G/F – Sure he logged 56 minutes in triple OT opening night, but with Jalen Rose cut loose by the Knicks earlier this week, Quentin now finds himself in Isiah Thomas’s starting lineup.  Remember it was just two years ago that Richardson led the entire league with 226 made threes.  Q was a perfect 6 for 6 from the line and 5 for 5 from behind the arc.  You gotta ride the hot hand for four games next week.

Chris Wilcox, F/C – Let’s hear it for the former Terp.  He scored 17 points, grabbed 6 boards and swatted a shot Wednesday night.  With starting center Robert Swift out for the year (torn ACL), the Sonics will now have to rely on Wilcox to step it up in the frontcourt.  He’s eligible at center, so you should get him in your lineups for four matchups next week.

Hakim Warrick, F – Essentially a younger and healthier version of Stromile Swift, Warrick posted an impressive 22/12/1 on 9 of 14 shooting opening night.  He should continue to see plenty of time on the court with starting PF Pau Gasol sidelined indefinitely.  His 4 for 12 from the line was terrible, but I think it was more an aberration than a trend.  He should hit closer to 65-70%FT over the course of the season.  Warrick is a great guy to plug in and keep in your lineups for the foreseeable future.

Antonio McDyess, PF – He shot poorly (1 for 7) against Milwaukee, but the more important stat were his 29 minutes played.  The Pistons’ new starting center Nazr Mohammed has never averaged more than 28 mpg in his career, and I expect the Dice Man to fill more of the void left by big Ben Wallace.  It seems like a lifetime ago that McDyess was averaging 20 and 10 in his early years, but at 32 he’s not too old.  He’s healthy now after being plagued with various injuries throughout his career, and if he can consistently log around 30 mpg he should be good for 12 and 8 with 1+ blocks a night.  Not too shabby.

It’s early. Very early. Repeat that to yourself very often over the next week. Hell, the next two weeks. Don’t be concerned or thrilled with any of your top players yet. Gilbert Arenas and Chris Bosh will be fine. Luke Ridnour hasn’t exorcised Earl Watson yet. Just leave all of your top picks alone and let them be. That said, at the bottom of your roster, the first couple of weeks are a great time to make moves. Last year, studs such as Boris Diaw and Mike James were likely plucked off the free agent list in the very early goings. So without too many trends to really talk about yet, I figured I’d use our league as a good example of a competitive 12-team league and talk about some players who were picked up yesterday, and what their chances are for continued success.

Hakim Warrick – Ah, triple overtime. The two sweetest words in the language for fantasy owners. Warrick was only around for the majority of the first two last night, but it still meant he saw 42 minutes of action. So without the OT, think of it closer to 33, which is still a nice number for Pau Gasol’s fill in. The 22 and 12 is very nice, but that 4-of-12 from the line is straight up brutal. You have to think that will improve at least a bit, you also have to remember that the Grizzlies weren’t just missing Gasol last night, they were also missing Stromile Swift. Swift will get his minutes when he’s healthy enough, and while some of them might come at the expense of Jake Tsakalidis, some of them will also come at the expense of Warrick. The Grizzlies gave it a valiant effort last night, but the fact remains that they still lost. At home. Against the Knicks. I have a feeling minutes will shift on a nightly basis on this team, making just about everyone a shaky fantasy option.

Anthony Parker – In another situation, Parker would have had a lot more hype coming into the season. We can get infatuated with foreigners, but usually when they’re young, not when they are 31 years old. Even if he was proven as one of the best players in the EuroLeague. If Parker signed with a big market team, it might have made more of a splash. But instead he signed with Toronto, where it’s easy to get lost in the shuffle. It also wasn’t clear whether he’d have a starting job this year or not. Well, he won the SG job ahead of Fred Jones and had quite a debut last night, going for 22/3/2 with 2 steals and 2 3s in 36 minutes. Sarunas Jasikevicius had a difficult time adjusting to the NBA after coming over in a similar situation last year, so don’t get too hyped on Parker just yet. But it’s always nice to come out of the game with a starting job, so Parker’s ahead of the curve there.

Sean May – With Primoz Brezec out for a couple of weeks because he’s got, uh, he’s, uh … a bit sleepy? … the Bobcats shifted Emeka Okafor to center and plugged in May as the starting PF. May got a solid 33 minutes of PT and did about what was to be expected. He hit 5-of-11 shots, grabbed 10 boards and did little else. May’s undersized at PF and isn’t the most athletic player, so he’ll never block too many shots, which will limit his fantasy upside. There’s certainly a place for points/boards guys on fantasy rosters, and May’s a capable scorer and rebounder, but he needs to shoot better than the 41% he did last year. Still, he could have some long term value. I always take a worst-case scenario when it comes to injuries in this league, especially mysterious illnesses like the one Brezec is suffering from. He could very well be out for just two weeks and return to his starting job, but it’s not something I’d consider a given.

Etan Thomas – I obviously watched the entire Wizards game, so I can give a pretty good report on Thomas. (By the way, this game tonight was a perfect example of why it would have been a terrible idea for me to have Gilbert Arenas on my team. I’d be so miserable.) Anyway, Thomas was a legit force inside, hitting all 7 of his shots, being aggressive on the offensive boards and swatting away a couple of shots. But Eddie Jordan went away from him in the second half and Thomas finished with only 22 minutes. I like Jordan, but I’ve never completely understood his substitution patterns, and this game was another example. The Cavs are a very big team that thrives on the offensive glass, yet the Wizards played with a small lineup for much of the second half. Whatever. Thomas won’t always be as efficient as he was last night, and until it looks like he’s going to break 30 minutes a night – something I don’t see happening any time soon – he’s best left on the free agent list.