Archive for November, 2006
PR Draft Recap

I had the privilege of drafting immediately after my friend BV at #7 overall.  I was expecting him to steal several of my targeted players, but he didn’t give me too much trouble over the course of the draft.  I didn’t really come into the draft with a structured strategy, but I knew I wanted point guards.  My draft results were probably the wackiest in our league, but I’m definitely pleased with my final roster.  Take a look:

Round 1, Pick #7
Gilbert Arenas
I was aiming for Arenas or Dwayne Wade with this pick, and figured I would take whichever one had not been drafted.  BV selected Brand right before me, so I was left with a tough decision.  Both Arenas and Wade will be among the league’s top scorers, and really contribute across the board.  The determining factors for me were Gilbert’s advantage in threes and a great FT% (with plenty of trips to the line).  Some might say that Arenas has hit his ceiling while Wade still has room to grow, but they’re both 24 years old and entering their prime.  Plus, Arenas has the hometown hero advantage and is now the leader of my fantasy squad.

Round 2, Pick #18
Jason Kidd
Yes, I know there is some risk here, but Kidd proved to be fully recovered from injury last year.  He’s getting up there in age, but it’s not like he’s Gary Payton or Sam Cassell old.  Kidd should lead the league in triple doubles and I expect him to produce numbers in line with his career averages.  Not bad, especially considering all the other risky options I had to choose from in the second round.

Round 3, Pick #31
Mike Bibby

WHAT?! Who drafts three point guards with their top three picks?  What about a well-balanced team?  This is a roto league remember!  Well, I didn’t expect Bibby to fall to me in the third round (I was considering J-Rich with this pick), and I expect another career season out of him.  I am a bit concerned about the injury to his shooting hand, but not enough to scare me away at this point (he surprised everyone and actually started last night).  I think I’m the only one who can claim three #1 PGs on his roster and I consider that a good thing.  I’m already well on my way to leading the league in assists, threes, and steals.

Round 4, Pick #42
Ben Wallace
Ok, I had to go big at some point and figured it was about time.  Big Ben fills one of my C spots and his rebounding and blocks give me exactly what I was lacking. Also, his 1.8 spg are easily tops among F/Cs.  He should continue putting up solid numbers in Chi-town as the Bulls have every intention of contending for a championship this season.

Round 5, Pick #55
Andre Iguodala
This pick is where I really start to get excited about how my team is shaping up.  His 12/6/3 averages are not impressive on the surface, but he gives you great numbers on defense, solid percentages, and even chips in 0.8 threes per game. Iggy is still just 22 years old with tons of upside. When AI or C-Webb go down with injuries, Andre should be ready to step up on offense and push his scoring closer to 20 ppg.  I look back at my first 5 picks and am giddy at the fact that I should have steals wrapped up (Arenas-2.0 spg, Kidd-1.9, Bibby-1.0, Wallace-1.8, Iggy-1.7)

Round 6, Pick #66
Samuel Dalembert
This is the first decision that I was not so confident making.  I figured I needed another center with traditional big man stats (rebounds/blocks), and I had to choose between Dalembert, Okafor, and Shaq here.  I was hoping that Chris Kaman would fall to me, but he went a few picks earlier.  I adhere to a strict “Don’t draft Shaq” policy and I was not about to break that rule.  I had visions of a bounce back season from Emeka Okafor, but there are just too many drawbacks when it comes to the former ROY.  His back and ankle injuries are always a concern, but even more troublesome are his career percentages (43%FG, 62.2%FT), which are simply unacceptable.  The deciding factor for me was Slammin’ Sam’s excellent FG percentage (53%) and his potential to lead the league in blocked shots.  One can also expect an uptick in scoring when Webber/Iverson goes down.

Round 7, Pick #79
Speedy Claxton
It’s been a while since taking a PG, so here I go again.  Really this was just a ‘best player available’ pick.  Speedy will be a starter for the first time in his career and should be guaranteed at least 30-35 minutes a game in Atlanta.  He averaged 12/3/5 and 1.5 steals as Chris Paul’s backup last season. Bump those numbers up by about 20% and I have a real sleeper.

Round 8, Pick #90
Morris Peterson
I was delighted to land Mo-Pete and his 2.2 threes and 1.3 spg in the 8th round.  The idea is to continue building on my strengths (steals, threes, FT%, and hopefully points).  A safe pick with plenty of value.

Round 9, Pick #103
Randy Foye
I’m not usually one to draft rookies, but I had my heart set on Tyson Chandler (that sounds terrible) this round and he was taken two picks ahead of me.  I didn’t really have anyone else targeted, so I figured why not.  After the first hundred picks you can’t really go wrong anyway.  Foye could explode if given the opportunity or he may struggle with limited playing time.  We’ll see.

Round 10, Pick #114
Josh Childress
Not sure why everyone forgot about him, but I love this pick.  He should be an everyday fantasy contributor with increased minutes for at least the first two months of the season (Marvin Williams out).  Childress gives you sneaky good numbers on defense and solid percentages from the floor and charity stripe.

Round 11, Pick #127
Sebastian Telfair

The hyped prep-to-pro gets a fresh start in Beantown this season and could prove to be a steal this late in the draft.  He showed flashes of his potential in Portland and hopefully he can find some consistency with the Celts.  Other guys that were picked ahead of Telfair in this round included yawners like Matt Harpring, Eddie Jones, and Earl Watson.

Round 12, Pick #138
Zaza Pachulia
I’ve gone 11 rounds without selecting a PF and decide that Zaza is the best big man left on the board.  He’s young, improving, and should see more minutes with Marvin Williams out.  Not great, but serviceable with some upside.

Round 13, Pick #151
Al Jefferson
He may have burned me last year, but I’m always willing to forgive and forget.  He’d be a lock to average a double-double with starter’s minutes, but the only problem is he’s slated to come off the bench backing up last year’s surprise Ryan Gomes.  I think if he can stay healthy and focused he’ll have a chance at redeeming himself.

I guess you could call the strategy I ended up following, “PGs and multi-cats.”  I started with nothing but top point guards and tried to fill the rest of my roster with players who are multi-cat contributors (Wallace, Iggy, Mo-Pete, Childress, etc.)  I think it worked out well.

BV Draft Recap

We spent two months going over draft strategies, discussing players and positions and categories.  Monday night it was put-up or shut-up time.  Here’s how it went for me:
 
Round 1, Pick #6
Elton Brand
I had decided on Elton Brand about 15 minutes after finding out I had the 6th pick of the draft.  During our mock draft we had identified a tier split right at pick 6, and with the clear top 5 gone, I had to choose between Brand, Dwyane Wade and Gilbert Arenas.  I went with Brand because, honestly, I just don’t like a lot of the big men this year but I like a lot of the guards that will be available later.  He was a Top-5 guy last year who’s not much of an injury risk and that’s better than I can say about either of the guards.  There’s another reason I went with him, which I’ll discuss in a sec.
 
Round 2, Pick #19
Joe Johnson
Safety first, risky later.  Johnson was by far the safest pick I could make here, with other options being Tracy McGrady, Vince Carter, Jermaine O’Neal, and Andrei Kirilenko.  Even the guys that went before him like Jason Kidd and Tim Duncan are big risks.  I had pegged Johnson about a week ago as my only real option in the second.  He’s a lock to be Top 30 and could very well challenge Ray Allen for the lead league in 3s.  Once I decided that Johnson was my main man in the second (I probably would have gone with Billups if he was gone), Brand was solidified as my top pick.
 
Round 3, Pick #30
Rashard Lewis
The classic luxury pick.  because I had drafted a PG and a big man who at least acts like a center in the first two rounds, i didn’t have to reach here.  I may have taken Brad Miller if he fell to me but I was happy to go with Lewis, another “safety first” player who will be top 40.  Paired with Johnson, I’ve now got 2 big deep threats who also won’t hurt my FG%.  I was really hoping for Carmelo here (my dark horse pick for league MVP) but Lewis suits me just fine.
 
Round 4, Pick #43
Raymond Felton
After three safe picks, here’s where I took my risk.  It’s no secret that I’m a big Felton fan - I even made him the “stud” in our Charlotte Preview over Gerald Wallace.  He’s got issues with FG% for sure, but he’s also got a great chance to be a Top-30 player at the end of the year.  I’m a little worried that both of my PG’s will end up playing more 2-guard than 1, but together they’ll be a fine complement to each other and I can certainly grab another PG further down the line.
 
Round 5, Pick #54
Caron Butler
It’s always good to have a guy from your favorite team and Butler fills that role quite nicely for me.  He’s also a classic safety pick.  At this point I’m pretty concerned about my center situation but to be honest, I don’t like any of my options here.  Boozer and Okur were both gone and next on the list was Chris Kaman, Shaq, Dalembert, and Okafor, none of whom were very exciting.  Still, I’m 5 rounds in and have no C’s and only one big boards/blocks guy.  Plus, I’m definitely going to take Shane Battier with my next pick so I’m going to be in trouble with big men.
 
Round 6, Pick #67
Emeka Okafor
Disaster strikes!  The guy I had targeted above all others, Shane Battier, goes 2 picks before me TO A GUY ON AUTODRAFT.  Damn you Yahoo for being the only other ones besides me to have Battier ranked so high!  But in the end (and yes, it took me a while to convince myself of this), this is probably for the best.  Okafor is really what my team needed.  While he’s technically my C1 he’s really my C2 because of Brand, and so this follows my preaching of Okafor being on a team where he’s not the leading big man.  Looks like I’m going to be watching a lot of Bobcats games this year.  I’m also still going to need to pick up some centers over the next few rounds.
 
Round 7, Pick #78
Jarrett Jack
After the Battier debacle, I basically had a new rule:  If you know who you want, go get him, even if conventional wisdom says it’s early.  I still wasn’t satisfied with my PG position because neither of my guys were true points, and I’m a big Jarrett Jack fan this year, so while it may have been a little early I pulled the trigger.  My other options were Speedy Claxton (don’t trust his health), Luke Ridnour (don’t trust Earl Watson), and Rafer Alston (Don’t trust his FG% after already taking Felton), so I went with the guy I wanted.  A day later, I think I went after Jack way too early, but hopefully it’ll work out.  He can certainly be a top-70 player.
 
Round 8, Pick #91
Nazr Mohammed
I got a lot of slack on this pick from both DM and PR, but they’re jerks.  Here’s what I know about Mohammed: He’s going to play at least 25 mpg, and probably more than 30.  He’ll be good for over 10 points and 7 boards every night, and that’s a bare minimum.  He could very well be a 15/10 guy.  Here’s the centers left on the board:  Tyson Chandler (who can’t be trusted for anything), Chris Wilcox (ditto), Kendrik Perkins and Joel Przybilla … you get my point.  My choice here was between Nazr and Nenad Krstic and I went with the guy who I think is really underrated this year.  DM and PR both suggested I could have waited a round or two but I was going with my new strategy: If you want the guy, you’d better take him.  A day later, I still feel pretty good about this pick.
 
Round 9, Pick #102
Luol Deng
I got him at pick #102, he placed in the 70’s on the player rater last year, and he’s supposed to improve this year.  What’s not to like?
 
Round 10, pick #115
Rudy Gay
I’ve been impressed by Rudy this preseason, and admittedly i’m a little cocky when it comes to rookie predictions.  Last year I said Charlie Villanueva would surprise, the year before I grabbed Andre Iguodala in the last round and the year before that it was Dwyane Wade.  This year, I’m rolling with Rudy.
 
Round 11, pick #126
Donyell Marshall
I said that if you can stash him on your bench he’s a great risk, and now that I’m drafting for my bench, I’ll take that risk.
 
Round 12, pick #139
Andrew Bynum
He’ll be on waivers by this weekend if he doesn’t perform well in his first few games, but he’s a fine risk and if he establishes himself as a decent C2 then this is a steal.  Plus, I’m still low on C’s and this potentially helps there.  After last night this pick is looking pretty good.
 
Round 13, pick #150
JR Smith
Like Bynum, he’ll be on waivers by this weekend if he doesn’t start fast, but he’s got the most upside of anyone you’ll find this late.
 
So there you have it.  I’m admittedly thin at C and will need some help in the big-man positions like blocks and boards, but I got almost all the guys that I thought were undervalued going in to the draft.  I went against conventional wisdom a few times but that’s why you play the game.  The first month of the season will be huge for me as I’ll have to make some tough calls on which of my risks panne dout and which didn’t.  Let’s see what happens, and good luck to everyone tonight.