The Three Amigos (of Backup Point Guards)

We haven’t been paying as much attention to point guards around here as we once did, but that’s because we figure you know the drill by now. They are good to have around, and if someone’s starting he’s quite likely worth adding. Sometimes tomorrow’s starters are today’s backups, so it’s good to know what they offer so you can tell if they will indeed be worthwhile should the get the opportunity. Today we’ll take a look at three of the more exciting backups, foreign imports each of them.

Sergio Rodriguez
Here’s your league leader in assists per minute, beating out even Steve Nash and showing his stuff by racking up 11 of ‘em in just 25 minutes last night. He’s played at least 20 minutes three times and he’s averaging 9.7 apg in those games. His PT has been incredibly inconsistent, but he’s now had at least 18 minutes in three of four games, his best stretch yet. He’s doing more to hurt Jarrett Jack’s value than to have any of his own, but he seems to have made Dan Dickau irrelevant and has positioned himself as Jack’s fill-in should he get hurt. Like the other Euro PGs listed below, he hasn’t shown much interest in shooting from the outside. He also has just four steals on the season and hasn’t made it to the line even once.

But those assist numbers can’t ignored. Portland had a nice little start but the Blazers are now sitting at 6-12 and you can expect things to be in a state of flux for most of the season. I don’t expect Jarrett Jack to lose his job, but it’s not completely out of the realm of possibilities that Rodriguez join him in the starting lineup at some point. Nate McMillian started some combination of Jack, Steve Blake and Sebastian Telfair in the backcourt on a few occasions last season, so we know he’s not completely averse to putting two PGs in the starting backcourt. Brandon Roy’s return – if that ever comes – would certainly make that plan less likely, but as Roy’s injury seems like one that’s likely to bother him again at some point during the season. Think of Rodriguez of the Reggie Evans of assists. Or something like that.  

Jose Calderon
The numbers don’t show it because his PT has decreased, but Calderon is playing some fantastic ball this year. T.J. Ford’s also playing damn well, so it’s limited Calderon to just 16.6 mpg after he saw 23+ in his rookie season. But he’s shown a new-found aggressiveness and is proving that he shouldn’t be looked at as just a one-dimensional passer for fantasy purposes. Last year in those 23.2 mpg he averaged 5.5 ppg on 4.9 FGA. This year he’s taking 5.7 shots in those 16.6 minutes, and is hitting 54%, compared to 42% last year. Calderon wasn’t as much of a pure point in Europe as he was last year in Toronto, so perhaps we’re seeing more of the real Jose this season. He’s still not much of an outside threat, but gets enough steals that if he got regular PT he’d be as much an asset there as your average PG.

Ford has proven to be more durable than most people thought since returning from his year off, but that specter of fragility still hangs over him. It’s reasonable to expect Calderon to run wild if Ford were to miss time, especially because Calderon would be counted on to replace his scoring as well. Double his numbers to give him around 33 mpg and you’ve got 15.8/3.0/5.8 with 1.4 steals. Those are numbers just about any team would take. It rarely makes much sense to use the handcuff strategy in fantasy basketball, but Calderon may be one of the few players for whom it makes sense, depending on how many bench spots are available. Calderon had a nine-game starting stint last season, and the numbers were fine, except for the scoring inspiring – 8.4/4.7/7.4 with 1.4 steals in 37.4 minutes. If he gets the chance again, expect him to put the ball in the hoop.

Carlos Arroyo
Arroyo was a popular pickup early in the season when it looked like he might supplant Jameer Nelson as the starter, but now he’s in that tough situation where he’s playing extremely well off the bench – better than Nelson – but the team is winning with the current arrangement, so why make a change? It’s bad news for Nelson, too, who isn’t even averaging 30 mpg in what many suspected would be a breakout campaign, and Keyon Dooling’s presence really isn’t helping matters at all. Arroyo’s shooting 47% this season and he shot 50% in his brief time with the Magic last year after a few years of miserable shooting in Utah and Detroit. But before you get too excited, if you take out Arroyo’s impossibly hot two-game stretch in which he made 18-of-22 shots, he’s shooting just 40% otherwise. The three-point shot is certainly becoming a bigger part of his arsenal, as he’s taken at least 2 in 6 of his last 9 games. Still not a ton, but with backups it’s sometimes hard to get a good feel for numbers like this. It’s true that Arroyo has never been much of a threat from long range, but I think that if a player gets a starting job and is more in the flow of the offense from the beginning of the game, his attempts would go up. Still, no starting spot is imminent and Orlando’s one of those deep teams where players have a tendency to cancel out each other’s value.

01
Swami
December 4th, 2006 8:14 am

All three of these guys impress. Guy I’m curious about: Devin Harris. He’s been in the wire in my 8-cat roto league (turnovers not counted). Anybody got thoughts on where he’s going? Other young PGs (and players) who we should be payinga close eye on?

02
bublitchki
December 4th, 2006 8:30 am

Jamaal Tinsley is another PG who has been playing very well lately and is still on our league’s wire. His rather dismal injury history has everyone wary, apparently.

Do you think he’s worth picking up in exchange for someone like Barbosa or Ellis, both of whom are in somewhat unsettled situations in Phoenix and Golden State?

03
December 4th, 2006 8:44 am

One note about the Arroyo-Nelson situation…I’m still hopoing Nelson’s #’s will ilmprove when Grant Hill’s inevitable injury hits. Hill eats up a lot of the assists and points that would otherwise go to Nelson.

I just picked up Devin Harris in my 12-team, 9-cat league. He seems like a pretty solidy utility guy, if you need some help in assists, steals, fg%, ft%. (his pts and 3’s aren’t great).

I considered picking up T.Lue instead, but I don’t need his points, and his assists have gone way down since Speedy Claxton came back from injurty.

Bulbitchki, I wouldn’t drop Barbosa or Eillis for Tinsley. I think they’ve been playing too well and are beter bets to stay healthy than Tinsley.

04
arpit
December 4th, 2006 9:10 am

another good back up point guard is marcus williams. one injury to jason kidd and he will be the hottest pickup in most leagues.

05
DM
December 4th, 2006 9:20 am

I like Devin Harris, just not that much in fantasy. The way Dallas is built, it’s hard for anyone to have any real value outside of Dirk, Howard and Terry. He’s making the most of his 25 mpg or so and in a 12-team league he should definitely be on a roster, though.

Tinsley is ultimately going to be more frustration than he’s worth. He’s looking very good lately but keep in mind those games have come against three of the highest scoring teams in the league. He’s still not cracking 35 minutes regularly, remains a terrible shooter, gets dinged up a lot and can lose PT to Darrell Armstrong and Sarunas Jasikevicius. Think of him as a very poor man’s Baron Davis. I almost always go for the starter, but I think I’d probably stick with Barbosa and Ellis.

06
JM
December 4th, 2006 10:33 am

one thing to note about Devin Harris, if you take out the first 2 games of the season (when he wasn’t starting) his avg minutes is actually over 28/g.

You’re right about Dallas being a weirdly constructed team for fantasy purposes. Firstly their lineup is deep, secondly they underperform on assists. They’re 10th in the league in scoring - but 20th in assists…weird…

Despite this, Harris has been very consistent with HIS assists. He’s made 4 or more in every game (except one) since becoming the starter.

One thing that may limit him (aside from Dallas’ dep lineup and not being a high-assist team) is that Dallas may end up blowing out a lot of teams this year (see their current 12 game winning streak - avg win by 11+ pts) which would mean the starters may not play much in 4th quarters…

07
Greg
December 4th, 2006 11:29 am

I just got offered Okafor for Deron williams.

I have a plethora of PGs, Williams, Billups, A. Miller, Bibby

I am always getting beat in boards with Murphy and Matrix slightly underpreforming, B Miller out, and Boozer and Yao hitting the boards(its a shallow league)

Should I take the trade? Is Okafor the best player? Should he be discounted for injury risk

08
Charlie
December 4th, 2006 1:23 pm

I am an Okafor owner trying to sell Okafor. I fell in love with him early in the season when he was blocking 39 shots a game and putting up 18 with 13. But he’s coming back down to earth, and I think the time to sell “sky high” on him would have been about 2 weeks ago. He has put up a couple of bad games in the last couple of weeks, and has generally leveled out. I’m trying to sell him based on his earlier performance, but I don’t think it’s flying. I think you should offer him either Bibby or Miller instead of Williams because I’m a big believer in Deron’s breakout year. I may even offer Okafor for Williams.

09
arpit
December 4th, 2006 2:58 pm

is travis outlaw a good pickup for the long term since he is now starting or is this just like a one game thing. Will he still start if roy get back. i was thinking about dropping perkins or claxton.

10
Terrance
December 4th, 2006 3:00 pm

travis outlaw needs a few years. he doesnt have an nba body yet. nate mcmillan seems like the larry brown of the west coast to me, i dotn trust him to have a steady lineup. at least thats what i think.

bargnani or garbajosa, whos the get there? will bargnani get C eligibility?

11
Terrance
December 4th, 2006 3:03 pm

Jm- i agree with you on nelson. hill does take looks away from nelson. but hill has only missed one game and that was the second half of a 2 game set for rest. im hoping he goes down, but so far hes been solid. have to hold steady on nelson though, you know, since i wasted a 6th round pick on him

12
Will
December 4th, 2006 4:55 pm

hi guys, i had a question that i put up in an earlier post but it didnt really get answered, so here it is

does okur for jamison make sense?
i have okur.

13
DM
December 4th, 2006 8:11 pm

Those are two pretty even players, but I’m not sure I’d trade Okur for Jamison. Perhaps it’s because I’m a Wizards fan and I see too much of Jamison and it’s not always pretty, I dunno. Okur has the center-eligibility, which always comes in handy, and he’s the player with the best track record of health on that front line. By the numbers Jamison is slightly better right now. But when I make trades, I like to KNOW that I’m getting the better half of the deal. I don’t like the shake things up just for the sake of the shake. I like to be sure I’m improving my team and I’m not sure this deal fits that criteria.

14
rich
December 4th, 2006 8:49 pm

Does Zo have any trade value right now? I’m guessing it’s not very high, maybe just higher than the average FA. I’m trying to help my team out in 3s and FT%, so a mediocre SG/SF would be ideal - I’m leaning towards trying to package him for maybe Maggette, though if you guys can think of some cheap alternatives I might be able to obtain, it’d be appreciated. The other option is I drop him now, before he loses value, and grab Marvin Williams.

15
bublitchki
December 4th, 2006 11:57 pm

Zo only has value to someone desperate for blocks. The news that Shaq might not return until after the All Star break does bump up Zo’s value a teensy bit.

Maggette’s probably a bit too spendy for the likes of Zo. JR Smith, Ben Gordon or Stackhouse might be more realistic targets. If you really want to go bargain basement in search of 3s and FT%, you might consider the likes of a Charlie Bell (value goes up if Mo Williams back injury is serious), Rasual Butler (especially if Peja is out for awhile), Turkoglu or Jamal Crawford.

16
luke
December 5th, 2006 6:26 pm

mike miller
nocioni
tony parker

how do these guys stack in value

17
January 28th, 2008 1:21 am

Nice

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