Fantasy basketball season has kicked into high gear. We’ve got a blockbuster trade likely in our near future, the injuries are really starting to pile up, which means waiver wires are likely on fire as people race for the hot new pickups, and trades start to be proposed as teams look to fill their holes. But today let’s take a look at two perennial teases who are finally showing signs of living up to their potential.
We’ll start with the big man in New York, Eddy Curry. I had predicted he would make an appearance on half the rosters in my league, and when he was on his third by the end of the first month, I thought maybe I undershot my estimate. Then something strange happened – Curry became Shaquille O’Neal. Scoring has never really been a problem for Curry, as he averages 20+ points per 40 minutes in his career. It’s everything else that has given him trouble – rebounding, blocking shots, hitting free throws, staying out of foul trouble, acting like he gives a damn, etc. So has Curry finally turned a corner or is this yet another flash in the pan?
First, even though Curry has been around forever, it’s worth remember that he just turned 24 years old last week. So his recent play obviously shouldn’t be looked at the same as, say, Erick Dampier having a two-week stretch of the same. It’s still possible that Curry is a different player than he’s proven to be so far. And perhaps the skill that has most improved isn’t any aspect of his actual game, but just his ability to stay on the court. Or rather, his coach simply letting him stay on the court. In Curry’s nine-game span in which he’s scored at least 20 in every game, it’s not like his foul problems have disappeared. He’s been disqualified from one contest and has picked up at least four fouls in five of those other eight. But Isiah keeps him on the floor, for a variety of reasons. He doesn’t have many other options, for one. Channing Frye is out, Kelvin Cato is out, Jerome James is Jerome James, so Curry is the only real option in the middle. Just as importantly, he’s playing too well to take out of the lineup. One of my biggest pet peeves in watching games is the way coaches treat players with fouls. Get two fouls in the first quarter and out you come. Get a third foul in the second quarter, out you come. This can often prevent players from really getting into a groove, and it seems silly to “save” a player for later in the game. In the Wizards/Rockets game on Saturday night, I was delighted when Chuck Hayes fouled out with about 4 minutes left in the third quarter. It was refreshing, almost. Jeff Van Gundy kept him out there and when he couldn’t use him anymore, he moved on.
Anyway, the minutes are huge, and some credit should be given to Curry, who has never been known for being in the best shape. His 32.5 mpg is a career high and he’s up to 38 mpg over his last five, including three games of 40+. It’s all about the minutes, as always. More minutes make all those other numbers look better. The rebounds are the real reason for encouragement with Curry, but his rebound rate this year is almost exactly the same as his rate from last year. He’s obviously been much better recently and that’s mostly due to seriously crashing the offensive glass. He didn’t have more than 3 offensive boards in any game in November, and hasn’t had less than 3 in the five December games, including 7 in one and 6 in another. Offensive rebounds by centers are a fantasy players best friend, because it often leads to an easy field goal and maybe even a free throw. Getting an offensive rebound often requires less work then getting a defensive board – you see Zydrunas Ilgauskas just get his fingertips on the ball, that’s a board right there – so it’s a great way for a lazy player like Curry to help his numbers. Curry doesn’t seem as lazy out there, but he still seems like he could really care less about what’s going on. I’m not a big believer in showing emotion translating into actual effort, but Curry seems to just coast, no matter if he’s hitting 17-of-24 or turning it over all the time.
Free throws remain a very weak spot with Curry, the one aspect of the game he’s regressed in this year. Hitting a little more than half of a dozen free throws per game is going to inflict some serious damage, but he’s a career 65% shooter, so there’s reason to believe he’ll at least be mediocre. And even though he racked up 5 blocks over the past two games, don’t even think about calling that a trend. He’s still the same guy who managed two blocks in 191 minutes in the five games before that. If those 10 extra minutes per game stick, Curry should be able to average a block per game, but he is simply not a shot blocker.
So that’s all well and good, but the big question is obviously – will he keep it up? More than us jaded folks might expect, I’d say. Curry is clearly the Knicks biggest weapon on offense, and as long as Isiah’s on the bench the gameplan will be to feed Curry and feed him often. (Insert your own joke.) In the middle of November there was a five-game span in which he never reached double digit shot attempts. Since then he’s topped 10 attempts in 11 straight games. Curry’s like just about everyone else on the Knicks in that once he gets the ball, he doesn’t like to let it go. He’s going to shoot it or he’s going to turn it over. (Yes, for those of you in turnover leagues, that’s just as big a problem as his free throws. Check that 74/15 turnover/assist ration. Wow.) He does need someone to feed him the ball, though, and if Stephon Marbury – the one player who seems to have given up on his own shot – is out for a while and the starting backcourt is Jamal Crawford and Nate Robinson, that might be a problem. Still, Curry has earned the benefit of the doubt to be held onto through his next slump, which is probably going to happen this month. If you have Curry right now you likely got him for free, just ride out the hot streak. Don’t expect him to all of a sudden become a well-rounded player. The reason he can never be a legitimate #1 center is because he’s at best a three category player, if he gets those boards up, but hurts just as much at the line. Still, a few more games and I’ll be ready to label Curry – gasp – a reliable #2 center.
But here’s someone I like more. Over in Boston, Al Jefferson had his breakout game on Saturday night, going for 29 and 14 in his third start as the Celtics center. Jefferson’s rap sheet reads almost as a carbon copy of Curry’s – too many fouls, too many missed free throws, too many injuries. He’s already missed time this year, but at least it was a freak thing (appendectomy) and not a recurrence of his ankle problems. I’ve always been down on Jefferson because his perceived value was always higher than his actual value. But when he went down earlier this year I said he would definitely be someone to stash because he would have value at some point this year. I didn’t expect it to be so soon, but that time is certainly now. Jefferson, like Curry, has shown that he knows how to get the ball in the basket. He’s not as high a percentage shooter as Curry, but he’s never shown any reason to expect less than 50% shooting. Unlike Curry, Jefferson has always been a monster on the boards. In his three starts he’s averaged 11 per game in just 31.7 minutes. He’s also a consistent, if not dominant, shot blocker. He’s swatted at least one, but no more than two, in each of the last seven contests.
The lack of competition for PT is another reason I’m bullish on Jefferson. Kendrick Perkins, Michael Olowokandi and Theo Ratliff aren’t going to be heard from for a while. There is really no reason why Jefferson shouldn’t see at least 33-35 mpg over the next month. He’s a player who is a borderline option with 25 minutes, so give him 10 more that’s obviously good news. Also, Jefferson has a real chance to assert himself as the Celtics #2 option on offense. That’s Wally Szczerbiak’s role right now, but sort of by default. The Celtics would certainly love for Jefferson to establish himself, and Saturday night’s game was a great example of what could be. The C’s came back from a huge deficit on the road, and it was Paul Pierce who hit the buzzer-beater, but it was Jefferson who carried them most of the night. Pierce hit just 4-of-18, but Jefferson nailed 12-of-19. The Celtics have lots of parts and it’s well-documented that Doc Rivers doesn’t always know how to put them together in the best way, but he doesn’t have much choice but to have Jefferson out there right now. Strong play over the next few weeks should make him a fixture in the starting lineup for the rest of the season. Perkins did nothing to put a hold on the starting center spot and it’s not like he’s actually that much bigger than Jefferson. Even if Perkins gets his job back, Ryan Gomes is more of a SF and could be better served coming off the bench. Jefferson is almost as strong a scorer as Curry, and his secondary skills make him much more of a reliable fantasy option. In his lackluster 7-point outing on Friday, he still managed to grab 7 boards, nab a steal and block a shot in 22 minutes. He’s going to be very good, and once he gets that center eligibility, he’ll be a real asset.