New! Updated! Top 20!

It’s about the middle of the month again and while we’re waiting for AI to get dealt, let’s check in again on the best of the best.  Last month’s rankings are in parentheses…

1.  Shawn Marion, SF (1) - DM and I had an interesting discussion on this:  Let’s say that Shawn Marion is the number one overall fantasy player again this year - it’s not out of the question, as he’s #2 right now, just below KG.  And let’s say that LeBron finishes outside of the top three - again, not out of the question as right now he’s at 7 overall.  Do you take Marion with the number one pick next year?  Has Lebron maxed out as a just-below-Marion type fantasy player?  I say I’d take Marion #1 next year … DM said no way.  Thoughts?

2. Kevin Garnett, PF (3) - It’s par for the course for KG so far.  The most remarkable thing about KG so far is how little attention he’s been getting.  The youth movement (LeBron, Carmelo, Wade, Chris Paul, etc.) has been soaking up all of the Sportscenter attention, and rightly so, but KG is performing better than all of them so far.  Is it possible he’s under-rated right now?  The assists are still down but he’s also still posting the highest FT% of his career.  Looks like rumors of his demise were unsubtantiated.

3. LeBron James (2) - I don’t think there’s been enough discussion about LeBron this year, either.  His FT% has dropped to “awful” status because of the high amount of times he gets to the line.  He’s 7th on the APR and hasn’t shown any statistical improvement for three straight years.  So much of the reason that he was a consensus number one pick this year was because he’s so young, he can still improve, right?  Well, apparently not.  The LeBron of age 22 is pretty much exactly the same as LeBron of age 20.  This just adds to my theory that LeBron is actually 27 years old.

4. Dirk Nowitzki, PF (5) - What separates Dirk from the rest of these guys is how consistent he’s been.  Even though he’s been shooting less (both overall and especially from the outside), he’s still at seven on the APR.  He’s an absolute lock for a Top-10 finish in the ratings, and that’s more than you can say for most of these other guys.

5. Yao Ming, C (6) - Raise your hand if you thought that with T-Mac back in the lineup and a newly healthy group around him, Yao would see his usage rate go UP by over 10 percent.  That’s a trick question, both because I can’t see you and because if you put your hand up you’re a total liar.  Yao is absolutely dominant right now, and there’s no reason to think this will stop anytime soon.

6. Gilbert Arenas, PG (4) - Gilbert falls two spots not because of anything he did, but more because he’s such a polarizing presence on a fantasy team.  Look at the player rater (which, by the way, is getting WAY too much attention in this column).  Almost every player there as at least a couple of categories where they’re just average.  Maybe a little in the plus, maybe a little in the minus, but for the most part within 1 point of the mean.  For Gilbert, he’s only got one of these, his FT%.  Everything else he’s either a monster or a disaster.  Imagine what affect someone like that has on a team, especially if you trade for him and your team isn’t set for someone like that!  Yikes.

7. Dwyane Wade, G (9) - I’m still nervous about the fatigue and the wear and tear, but you can’t argue with the numbers.  He’s stopped worrying about the threes and now he’s getting back to his typically high FG% self.  The steals are coming back as well, and he’s the Heat’s only chance of winning so he’s going to continue to be the man down there and for your team.

8. Kobe Bryant, SG (8) - Mamba is just waiting.  He showed flashes with that 52-point effort two weeks ago and he’s starting to find his range again, taking more threes as he works his way back into the flow.  If there’s a guy who’s going to go bonkers for a 15-game stretch in February and March, that guy is right here.  If you can buy low on him because of injury concerns, I’d do it.

9. Allen Iverson, G (14) - If you think that I spent way too much of the past few days figuring out crazy Iverson trades, you’re absolutely correct.  AI can probably be had for as low a price as you’ll ever be able to get him for right now, but odds are he’ll be the same player no matter where he lands.

10. Steve Nash, PG (10) - I said last month that Nash would be at 10 all year long, and while theoretically I could/should place him one or two spots higher, I’m going to keep him at 10 until something drastic happens.

11. Vince Carter, GF (7) - Is it too early to nominate Carter as the biggest bust of 2007-2008?  His FG% will eventually come back down to earth but Air Jersey will continue his career year for the forseeable future.

12. Elton Brand, PF (12) - This is getting frustrating - his 10/3 game against the Spurs will keep us Brand owners on our toes for another few weeks, just when we thought he was finally back to his old self.

13. Joe Johnson, G (15) - Johnson hadn’t missed a game in like 5 years until this calf thing started up, and let’s hope he starts another 5-year streak this week.  Everything else has been dandy for Johnson owners like myself.

14. Carmelo Anthony, F (N/A) - For a long time, DM had likened Carmelo Anthony to Glenn Robinson, but I think we can finally start giving Melo his due.  The biggest surprise? His 4.1 apg, part of the reason he’s no longer considered a one-trick pony.

15. Michael Redd, GF (14) - I know this is my question every time with Redd, but do you think he can be drafted in the second round next year?  I still think his FG% and points will eventually fade back to his typical numbers, but he’ll still be right around 20 overall by the end of the year.

16. Rashard Lewis, F (N/A) - I’m a Lewis owner but I”m hesitant to put him any higher than this despite his hot start.  The longer Ray Allen is out, though, the better Lewis’s season looks.

17. Jason Kidd, PG (18) - Remeber when it was thought that Marcus Williams would cut into Kidd’s PT?  So much for that idea - Kidd is seeing about half a minute MORE this year than last.  But can his knees handle this sort of run?

18. Baron Davis, PG (N/A) - sell high sell high sell high sell high sell high sell high sell high sell high …

19. Chauncey Billups, PG (N/A) - I’m a little skeptical that Billups will keep up his FG% up, or his steals.  Still, that should be offset by a slight rebound in FT% and threes.  This looks about right for Billups and he’ll be bouncing on and off of this list depending more on other player’s performance than his own, really.

20.  Ray Allen?  nope.  Chris Paul?  maybe.  Tim Duncan?  He’s been solid lately … Jermaine O’Neal?  nope.  I’m going to leave this one open to you guys.  Who belongs at 20?

01
Carl
December 12th, 2006 7:37 am

My question to you is wtf is up with Okafor over these last few weeks?

Do I worry?

Carl

02
Terrance
December 12th, 2006 8:53 am

hes getting 10 8 and 2 blks on 43 fg and 72 ft with 2 to.

hes only gettnig 25 min a game over the past two weeks, but otherwise hes diong what he should be doing. i hope you werent expecting 20-18 and 6 blks a game for the season. im just messing with you, but still. okafor is c1 material, and if you look at okafors career #s before this season, youll see that hes doing pretty much whats expected. id say expect 14, 10 and 45 % shooting with 2 blks a game from here on out, if he can stay healthy.

i told anyone who would listen to sell this guy high! i mean, he was by the book!

one thing on kevin martin. he had a solid game going the other night @ atlanta. but the kings blew out the joe johnsonless hawks and martin ended up with 14 pts in 24 minutes with good % ’s. its frustratign to own martin becuase his team is as capricious as michael jackson.

03
Terrance
December 12th, 2006 8:59 am

my thought on lebron and marion. who would i have drafted this year and probably next? lebron without a hesitation, but who do i want when the season actually starts? marion. that probably doesnt make much sense.

it just seems that you hear about lebron and 30-10-10-1.5 stl on 48 fg. but lebron to the ball too much and cant shoot a FT yet and has gotten worse every year in teh league from the ft line.

but you never hear anything from marion, just steady production and never disappointing. but lebrons name carries a ton of weight in any trade deal. to me, more than marion, which is why id draft him. some people would give up the farm for lebron.

04
December 12th, 2006 9:17 am

Marion’s been the best player in fantasy basketball for several years. Next year, I would continue to draft him ahead of Lebron.
I like Marion’s consistent performance over Lebron’s “potential.” It’s weird that Yahoo’s player rater always has Marion finishing #1, then continues to disrespect him buy moving him down a few spots for the next year’s pre-draft rankings. makes no sense…

I’d say that J.Johnson, Redd,Carmelo, and R.Lewis were all worthy 2nd round picks om roto leagues this year. I would’ve taken any of them over injury risks like Mcgrady, Amare, J.Oneal, or a category killer like Duncan.

As for your #20 spot, Ray Allen would get it if he wasn’t hurt. Otherwise it should go to P.Pierce, C.Paul, or L.Odom.

If your league counts TOs I’d give #20 to Boozer, Rasheed or Camby.

05
beav
December 12th, 2006 12:07 pm

Pierce for sure. How can you have Baron that high with all of his injuries?

06
bv
December 12th, 2006 1:12 pm

carl,
okafor wasn’t as good as his hot start but won’t be as bad as the last week or so, either. he was considered a top-50 guy before the season and that still sounds about right.

terrance,
so maybe then if you get the number one pick you try and trade down to #2 to get marion? i agree that lebron will be the number one pick, but like you i’d rather have marion.

beav,
baron’s numbers right now support it, but i know the injuries are coming. thus my ’sell high’ comment.

07
bublitchki
December 12th, 2006 11:59 pm

Carlos Boozer at #20, perhaps?

Or maybe he rates even higher. A case could be made that he deserves to be ranked in the same general neighborhood as Elton Brand at #12 - whom he’s arguably outplayed so far. He’s got center eligibility; his assist numbers are up; and he’s become much more consistent, rarely having a bad game.

Or maybe he should receive some kind of special recognition for the fact that he’s almost singlehandedly relegated his teammate and former Top-20 mainstay Kirilenko to fantasy purgatory as a result of his stellar play.

Other candidates: Zach Randolph, Amare, Caron Butler (!) and, of course, Chris Paul.

08
December 14th, 2006 9:30 pm

Number one next year? Marion, without question. If he can be THE fantasy stud with Amare back, he can do it for good. Anyone who disagrees - answer me this - what is going to be the difference between a 22 year old Lebron this year and a 23 year old Lebron next year?

09
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