Well, I’ve held out as long as I could, and with no official Allen Iverson trade yet, I guess I’m going to have to pass on the trade-response column and let DM do it tomorrow, that lucky jerk.

In other news, could this be the untimely end of Tracy McGrady as we know him?  Consider the evidence:

- In the last four seasons his FT% has gone from 80 to 77 to 74 to 68. 

- In that same time his 3PM has gone from 2.6 to 1.8 to 1.6 to 1.4 … while his 3PA has gone from 7.7 to 4.7 in a similar steady decline.

- He hasn’t averaged seven rebounds since 2001-02.

- While the spike in assists this year could be taken as a good sign, he’s also had a big spike in turnovers.  In fact, of the top 20 assist men in the league, only Gilbert Arenas, Allen Iverson and Dwyane Wade have a worse Assist/TO Ratio.

- Also disturbing is the fact that his newfound penchant for passing has not resulted in a higher FG%.  The 45% that he shot in his prime (can you believe I’m saying “in his prime” about a guy who’s 27 years old?) is now a distant memory.  Even though he’s taken the fewest shots of his post-Toronto career, that apparently doesn’t mean he’s taking any better shots.

I would say, looking at all this information, that this isn’t the end of T-Mac as we know him - rather, the T-Mac that deserved a first-round pick walked out the door about four years ago, before his last year with the Magic.  For years, we’ve said that McGrady was a first-round value, but that his back problems made him a second-round pick.  Now, we need to re-evaluate that claim.  More concerning to me than his back problems - which were expected, but we’ll still talk about them in a minute - is his standing on the Average Player Rater.  Right now he stands at 50 even, below guys like Luol Deng and Josh Howard, and just ahead of JR Smith and Luke Ridnour.  That is just not the T-Mac that we know.

The evidence suggests that McGrady, even when healthy, is no longer a first round talent.  Now, I’m not about to suggest that he’d be 50 overall if healtrhy all year.  You’d have to figure he’d revert to form at least somewhat, maybe in steals and FT%, and end up in the late-twenties or early thirties.  But when you add the injury risk, where does he land?

Well, every time his back flares up, you’ve gotta add a few positions more in that injury buffer.  I can’t say this enough - backs don’t get better.  There’s a reason that McGrady has been diagnosed with “chronic” back pain and not just regular old back pain.  It’s because this sort of pain won’t go away.  He’s sort of like Chris Webber of a few years ago - the talent is still there but there’s no reason to expect his to play enough games to make him worthwhile.  And yet, last year Webber came through with 75 games played and was a solid force all year.  So it’s not unheard of - but still very unlikely.

So, here’s the bottom line - If he plays only half the season again this year, I can’t justify drafting him any earlier than the fifth or sixth round next year.  The fact that he’s already been shut down at this point means that unless my team is in dire straits, I’m not going to give much more than 8th round value for him.  That said, If your team is in/near last place, he’s exactly the kind of risk you should be looking for.

Now, let’s go, AI trade!