In most leagues the waiver wire is like the Wild West. First-come, first-served, it’s a free-for-all, so unless you have the good fortune to be right at the computer when someone is in the midst of the breakout game, chances are one of those other nerds in your league is going to beat you to the new breakout star. It’s not a perfect method by any means, but hey, who likes paying for premium league services? So what to do? Well, that’s obvious. Find those breakout players before the breakout games. Since there’s nothing new on the AI front (at least as I type this late Wednesday evening), let’s take a look at four current bench guys I think are worth stashing away.
Anderson Varejao
During last year’s Wizards/Cavs playoff series, Varejao was the player I hated most on the Cavs. And I admit that part of it was envy – man how the Wizards could have used his relentless rebounding and hustle. But he also had his share of borderline dirty plays, but I’d be defending him if he was on my team, one of those guys. Anyway, Varejao returned to the bench last night with Drew Gooden back from his groin injury, but the poofy-haired one still saw the most minutes in the Cleveland frontcourt – by far. In his last three games he has averaged 34.7 mpg and put up an impressive line of 15.3/9/1 on 55% shooting. The steals haven’t been there the past few nights, but with consistent PT he would put up above-average numbers for a power forward, with mediocre block numbers. He’s a rebounding machine, for sure. His rate is actually down this year, but he’s the type of guy who should grab around 10 boards every time he sees 30 minutes. He’s also a high percentage shooter and his free throws are weak, but improving. So how will he get the minutes? He could push Gooden aside, although that could still end up being a shaky situation. But what if Zydrunas Ilgauskas misses some time? Big Z has been better lately, but he still hasn’t topped 20 points yet this year and you just get a feeling that some time off may be in his future. If that happened, I’d expect Varejao to get the call in the middle, and he would certainly produce. (And hopefully get some center eligibility.) Varejao’s also a restricted free agent, so he has incentive to put up some numbers. Right now Varejao’s useable in weekly leagues when he has a four-game week, although he’s still a dicey option in daily leagues since it’s hard to know when his good games will be. But in 2007, expect him to be an option for everyone.
Danny Granger
Granger may have been cut after he got benched, but he’s well worth holding onto. He’s still seeing very healthy minutes off the bench and is a reasonable option in deep leagues right now, although he has the type of “little-bit-of-everything” game that lends itself well to a consistent 35 mpg as opposed to an inconsistent 28 mpg. I like to say that guys like Granger, who are solid across the board without being dominant anywhere, help a good fantasy team more than a weak fantasy team. A weak fantasy team needs to gain ground, and that’s done with players who can help you make big moves in the categories. A solid fantasy team likely has some studs, so a guy like Granger can help hold down the fort. Granger has certainly become more of an outside player in his second season, which is good and bad for his fantasy value. He averaged just 0.4 3pg last year, but is up to 1.7 this year on 42% shooting. But this also means he’s hanging around outside more and his rebound and block rates are down substantially. He’s still very capable of averaging a steal and block per game and maybe that can be with 1.5 3s instead of just a single trey. The Pacers are desperately trying to unload Stephen Jackson, have a fragile Jermaine O’Neal and Jeff Foster always seems to be in an out of the starting lineup as the season carries on. It would be surprising if Granger isn’t in the starting five at some point soon. He’s not someone to give up on.
LaMarcus Aldridge
He was a hot pickup a few weeks ago and is a forgotten man now. He hit bottom last night with a scoreless four minute stint against Memphis. Ouch. All rookies have their ups and downs, and Aldridge is certainly experiencing his downs right now. But don’t forget the talent he flashed when he was starting and don’t forget who he’s competing with for minutes in Portland. Aldridge has shown a surprisingly well-rounded offensive game, although he still seems a bit more comfortable taking jumpers than working inside, sort of like Channing Frye. His rebound and block numbers were modest for a center, but at least he can shoot (51/79 in his limited time). The main reason I like Aldridge is that as the year goes on, it becomes a lot more likely that he’ll be the man in the middle in Portland. Joel Przybilla’s a good guy, an excellent shot blocker and a solid rebounder, but he’s stretched as a started and really can’t handle much more than 20 minutes per game. He’s important to the Blazers because he’s their main defense around the rim, but he’s injury prone and just can’t handle much PT. Jamaal Magloire’s had a decent run lately, at least by his current standards, but you have to think Portland will be able to find some team that is desperate enough for a big body and an expiring contract to take him off their hands. Raef Lafrentz … I’m not even going to bother. Even Zach Randolph, and it pains me to say it, you never know. If you woke up tomorrow and read that Randolph was arrested and out for the season, you wouldn’t be all that surprised, right? I like Aldridge’s game, but his long-term opportunity is just as nice.
Morris Peterson
MoPete finally came into his own last season after so many years of being mediocre, and the good vibes didn’t last at all. He got off to a fairly slow start (although he still hit 16 3s in his 6 starts) and lost his starting job, then he got hurt and saw his ironman streak snapped. He’s back now and he’s still coming off the bench, but we’ll see how long that lasts. He’s scored in double figures in each of the past four and he’s continuing to fire up plenty of 3s. Not like his former teammate Vince Carter, mind you, but WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON THERE?! SERIOUSLY, 31 ATTEMPTED 3S OVER A TWO GAME SPAN?! Sorry, just had to get that out of my system. Anyway, Peterson has 8 3s and 5 steals in four games since coming back from injury, and that’s in just 26.5 mpg off the bench. Granted, there have been more shots to go around the past few games with Chris Bosh out. The Raptors broke a four-game losing streak with an impressive win at Orlando last night, so a lineup change might not be imminent now, but it’s hard to see Peterson coming off the bench for the entire season. Despite his recent injury, he’s proven to be one of the most durable players in the league, so when one of those swingmen goes down, he’ll be there to pick up the slack. Even off the bench he’s a decent source of 3s and steals, although you know that I have issues using non-starters. I just think Peterson won’t be in that category all season.