Buy, Sell or Hold: New Orleans Hornets

The problem with writing a column the night before you post it is that the two things that will be most talked about on Monday - the coming Knicks/Denver suspensions (complete with headline, “Melo: Stop Snitching, Start Sucker-Punching”) and the continued Allen Iverson trade talks are off limits because anything could happen between now and when I post, so what I have to say now could be completely unimportant by the morning.  So instead, we’ll do a little BSH action with the New Orleans Hornets. 

Supposedly an up-and-coming team, the Hornets have been struggling so far and the easy goat has been all the injuries that they’ve had to deal with.  Big-time offseason acquisition Peja Stojakovic just had surgery, David West is up next, and Bobby Jackson has missed a big chunk of time, too.  Meanwhile, first round picks Hilton Armstrong (6-11 center with 4 blocks on the season) and Cedric Simmons (6-9 PF shooting 39%) have stunk it up, completing a stink-tastic front court alongside perennial dissapointment Tyson Chandler ( 5.5 ppg).  Sounds like a few role players might be worth picking up here, huh?  Let’s see what’s out there:

Chris Paul, PG - I had to put him on this list because he’s the team’s preeminent player, but there’s nothing to worry about with Paul.  He’s lived up to the hype so far, and while the threes are down and TO’s are up, everything else is even better than advertised.  VERDICT: HOLD.

Peja Stojakovic, SF - OK, we say this all the time, but it’s important to remember that we aren’t doctors nor do we play them on the internet.  But let’s look at the factors here, because there are a couple of red flags, including: He signed a big fat new contract in the offseason, he has “no timetable” for return, and perhaps worst of all, the injury is in his back, which is never a good sign.  The surgery he had was to “speed up” the recovery process, which is a lot different from “fixing the problem.”  If you can get something of value for Stojakovic, say a 7th - 9th round value, I think you have to take it.  VERDICT: SELL.

David West, F - West is a tough one as well.  He’s getting set to have surgery as well, but there are a couple of differences from Peja.  First of all, it’s his elbow not his back, and elbows generally aren’t chronic problems.  Secondly, you’re not going to get any value for West right now.  He’s a mid-level guy who may not be back in action for months - he’s more of a hindrance to a team right now than a benefit.  The question you have to ask yourself at this point is if you have room on your bench for him, because no one is going to want to take him in a trade.  If you can stash him away then by all means do it - but at some point this guy might be waiver-wire bound.  VERDICT: HOLD.

Tyson Chandler, C - There’s some good news and some bad news for Chandler.  The good news is, he continues to be among the league’s best rebounders.  The bad news is everything else about him.  Chandler is apparently unable to shoot from beyond 2 feet from the basket, resulting in both a terrific FG% (68%) because all he does is dunk, and a downright horrific FT% (31%).  He blocks a pretty shockingly low amount of shots as well for a guy his size ( 1.3).  Still, he’s been getting over 30 mpg for the first time in his career and I think he’s a decent buy-low guy.  He showed with the Bulls that he’s capable of shooting 60% from the stripe, and he shoots so few FT’s that he can still recover.  His owners have to be sick of him at this point, but he still at 105 on the APR and could end up in the mid-70’s if he picks him game up to a level we’ve seen him attain in the past.  IT’s not like either of the rookies will be pushing Chandler for PT anytime soon, anyways.  He could be a smart buy low right now.  VERDICT: BUY.

Rasual Butler, SF - If you liked JR Smith, then you’ll LOVE “Casual” Rasual Butler.  In eight games as a starter, Butler’s been putting up 16.8 ppg with 2.1 threes and 1.4 steals.  I picked up Butler at the beginning of December and I’ve been having a tough time keeping him out of my lineup ever since.  Butler should absolutely be owned in all leagues right now until West and Peja come back, but he’ll be tough to trade because once either of those two return, Butler will go back to having no value.  VERDICT: HOLD.

Desmond Mason, GF - While you might think that Mason’s recent hot streak is due to the injuries around him, the reality is that it has much more to do with Mason simply playing better.  His FG% in December is 10 points higher (49%) than it was in November (and all of last year).  Still, Mason has been nothing short of a let-down in New Orleans and this hot streak should not be confused with a re-emergence.  Mason should still have some name-value left over from his days as a viable fantasy player in Milwaukee, and if you can get a nostalgic owner to trade for him, by all means do it.  VERDICT: SELL.

Bobby Jackson, G - Even with perfect health, Jackson is a borderline fantasy guy at best.  He’s out indefinitely and shouldn’t be owned in any leagues at this point.  VERDICT: SELL.

Jannero Pargo, PG - Guess who’s been playing over 32 mpg in December?  That’s right, Jannero Pargo!  Pargo is not afraid to shoot, especially from long range, but he hits so few of those shots that it’s kind of a mixed blessing.  Until he can do things a little more efficiently, I think I’d be willing to leave him on the waiver wires.  VERDICT: HOLD.

01
December 18th, 2006 8:39 am

Now that West is having surgery I’m considering dropping him.

One obvious replacement would be Rasual Butler’s, who as you noted has been puting up nice #’s since becoming a starter 8 games ago:

36.5 min, 16 pts, 2.1 3ptm, 3.8 reb, 1.1ast, 1.4 stl, 0.4 blk, 1.9TO, FG%42 (15 att/g), FT 71% (1.8 att/g).

I’d pick him up for his 3’s and stls, but am leery of his FG%, a category that I’m close to lots of others in.

Otherwise I think I’d pick up Josh Childress, who’s rumored to potentially come back from his injury this week.

Before he hurt his foot, Childress was playing like his all-around steady self. His best cats being FG%, TO and rebs. every where else he helps a little, and doesn’t hurt you anywhere…
37 min, 13 pts, 0.4 3ptm, 6.4 rebs, 1.3 ast, 0.7 stl, 0.9 blk, 1.3 TO, 57%FG (10 att/g), 78%FT (2.6 att/g)
However, those stats happened with no Marvin Williams around. His presence should reduce Chldress ‘ minutes I’d guess.

Option 3 is to hold on to David West. But I’ve got 5 guys hurt right now, and feel like I’ve gotta drop one of them, or I’ll fall too far behind in games played. The only one of my other hurt player’s that I’d consider dropping is Jameer Nelson.

any thoughts???? Drop West or Nelson for Butler or Childress?

02
Andy
December 18th, 2006 10:19 am

JM, Butler is worth a pickup, but with some major caveats. His poor FG% will hurt (especially in your case) and he’s a liability in several other cats from the SF spot (rebs, asts, FT%). Even his steals look like something of an aberration based on his career numbers. As BV pointed out, he could be hard to trade, but I would harp on the fact that West and Peja are out “indefinitely” and focus on his scoring numbers to see if you could get another owner to bite.

Childress is also a guy I have been thinking about stashing away on my roster, but I’ve been hesitant because foot injuries always scare me slightly and as you mentioned Williams is back and the Hawks have a slew of guys playing pretty well right now. He could be a nice fit for you with his great FG%, though.

Overall, if I were you I guess I’d drop West for Butler. I wouldn’t drop Nelson just yet as he (usually) shoots for a decent FG% from the PG spot and I still think he’s got to get better as the season goes on. I would definitely keep an eye on Childress, though.

03
Andy
December 18th, 2006 10:55 am

Forgot to add my question of the day… as great as he was for the first few weeks of the season, can I assume Wally Szczerbiak is a safe drop at this point? He keeps getting hurt and there are very good options in the FA pool such as Morris Peterson, David Lee, and Stephon Marbury in addition to some possible flyers/short term pickups such as Livingston, Head, R. Patterson, Bargnani, and the aforementioned Childress and Butler.

04
December 18th, 2006 11:35 am

What do you guys think about Bonzi Wells if he can stay healthy? Can we expect him to put up around 12 pts and get his 7-8 boards a game with good steals in his current role in Houston?

05
JM
December 18th, 2006 12:47 pm

Andy,
I think Szcerbiak will come off the bench when he’s healthy, so his stats will decline. And he’ll likely contintue to get hurt… so I’d be willing to drop him for Mo Pete, Childress or Patterson.

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