Did I Miss Anything?

So, I’ve been out of town since Friday night, anything interesting go on in the NBA since then?

I have indeed been out of town but I’ve obviously been staying on top of what’s been going on. And that includes sitting literally three feet away from the action at the Miami/Memphis game on Saturday night. Close enough that had something happened like what happened in MSG on that same evening, I would be shaking in some combination of jubilation/fear. OK, mostly fear. In fact, I’d probably run crying up the stands. (Us fantasy basketball bloggers aren’t the toughest or bravest folks, after all.) And I was able to watch Gilbert Arenas fire up the hibachi and dump 60 on that jerk Kobe Bryant and the Lakers. The Wizards did what they often do against good teams – run out to a big lead and passively try to hold on for dear life – but it worked out in the end. But I’m tired and need to finish this so let’s get to the brawl.

By now everything has been said, and the most logical people have the most logical responses, and none of those people work for the NBA. Yes, it’s basically all Isiah and the Knicks fault. Yes, Nate Robinson is King Jackass of the NBA. No, Isiah shouldn’t even be allowed into the NBA store after he gets canned by Dolan next week. (Mr. Where’s the Sportsmanship? is the same guy that walked off the court with time remaining when the Pistons lost to the Bulls back in the day, right?) Yes, George Karl was right in everything he said, and honestly I think he was holding a lot back. Yes, I’m ashamed that Isiah Thomas was my favorite player when I was a kid. No, the brawl wasn’t at all offensive to the casual viewer like the Pacers/Pistons brawl was. But enough already – how does this affect fantasy land.

Well both teams played a game already, so we’ve got something to work with. So keeping with the theme of the previous paragraph and my desires to actually get some sleep – one of those days in South Florida was spent on a boat, where I had to do, like, physical boat tasks, and my body still is in a mild state of shock – let’s use last night’s game as a barometer. Starting with the Nuggets…

Yes, Andre Miller is going to score many more points, not 27 like last night, but certainly at least around 20 most nights. No, he’s not going to keep getting 10 assists every game, because most of those assists came on lobs to ‘Melo or simple passes turned in 3s by J.R. Smith. Yes, Earl Boykins will likely be their high scorer over the next 10 games, since he’s their only real scorer active now. Yes, he’s absolutely worth starting, this coming from someone who never, ever endorses bench players. No, Marcus Camby won’t put up 25/17/5 with 7 blocks every night. Yes, he’s always capable of those lines, even when everyone’s out there. Yes, situations like this make him more likely to put them up. Yes, playing all those tough minutes could take its toll on the notoriously fragile player. No, nobody else will have real value for the Nuggets even with the absence of nearly 50 of their points per game. Yes, that includes Nene; let him play 23 mintues first. No, I can’t see Yakhouba Diawara continuing to get 40 minutes. Yes, I can continue to see him be as worthless has he was in those 40 minutes (8/3/2, nothing else – that’s stupendously bad for 40 minutes). Yes, Reggie Evans will be more effective than last night. No, he’s not going to suddenly start scoring, so look at him in the same way. Yes, someone might have a random nice game from night to night, but don’t expect consistency. Yes, I’m glad I was on a plane and missed the entire game. Now, the Knicks…

Yes, David Lee will be a monster as long as Quentin Richardson and Jared Jeffries are out. No, I don’t feel bad for telling that person to drop him for Al Jefferson just a few days ago – it’s not like Jefferson’s been a chump. Yes, Lee is capable of regularly grabbing 20 boards if he gets 45 minutes. No, I don’t think he’ll get that more than a one or two games. Yes, those are serious signs of life from Stephon Marbury – 30/4/8, 2.5 3s, 10.5 FTA in two games, only one of those with a depleted roster. No, I don’t expect this to last all year. Yes, I expect this type of play to occur more regularly, but expecting those numbers regularly is a bit silly. No, this doesn’t mean I think you hold on to him unconditionally – if the right offer for that 4th/5th round value comes along, you take it. Yes, I’ve noticed that Eddy Curry is back to his old self over the last three. Yes, I think he’ll pick it up back up again. Yes, Jamal Crawford is capable of putting up 6-for-26 every night. Yes, he’s just as capable of putting up 36 points. Yes, Channing Frye’s worth a pickup, although I think he’s quite clearly far lower on the pecking order right now than he was during his best stretches last year. No, Ronaldo Balkman isn’t the greatest choice, despite his 15 boards and 2 blocks last night. Yes, the Steve Francis and Quentin Richardson injuries are just as important in all of this as the Nate Robinson/Jared Jeffries suspension. Yes, I laughed a lot at Jared acting like a maniac and falling down and Eduardo Najera basically going, “What are you doing, dude?” when Jared grabbed his jersey.

So that’s about that. Hopefully we let the brawl fade away into the minor story that it really is, and people might stop to realize that Gilbert dropped 60 on Kobe, but that’s unlikely. Just another reason for Gilbert to have a chip on his shoulder and make people notice the next time he does it.

01
Andy
December 19th, 2006 9:25 am

Think nothing of it, DM - Jefferson now has C-eligibility in Yahoo! leagues, so his value could easily stay higher than Lee’s - plus, it’s moot anyway because I was able to get Lee back last night without even spending my waiver priority.

In fact, adding Jefferson and Lee now makes the frustrating Troy Murphy expendable on my team, and I’m thinking about dropping him for Marbury or MoPete.

02
OB
December 19th, 2006 9:46 am

There is some news on richard jefferson possibly needing a surgery…should I try and trade him away?

03
bublitchki
December 19th, 2006 11:47 am

The other day I sent out an SOS regarding Mike Bibby. I floated the admittedly desperate notion of possibly dropping Bibby for Shaun Livingston.
bv sagely counseled against such a rash over-reaction. He was right, of course. Livingston’s upside at this point in his career is nowhere near what Mike Bibby can deliver, when right.

I guess the real questions is how long should one reasonably be expected to wait for a player like Bibby to get right? Last night’s 10/2/6 on 25% shooting hardly inspires confidence that he’s about to turn the corner. Now there are rumors leaking out of Sacto about a growing rift between him and Artest as to who should be the quarterback the team.

So far, I’ve been able to stash Bibby on the bench without much trouble. With Paul and Deron Williams as my 1 & 2 PGs, I’ve been OK at the position. But I know that the day will soon come when I will need to turn to my #3 PG and I just don’t feel comfortable with Bibby right now. Marbury is available, but I’m not sure he holds his value once Francis returns. Jameer Nelson just got dropped, and Barbosa (who I just dropped to pick up Big Al), Mike James, Luther Head, Brevin Knight and Livingston are also out there.

So what say you all? Do you see Bibby turning things around by the second half? Do you think I’m better off rolling the dice on one of the available FAs for my #3 PG?

04
jimmyjamms
December 19th, 2006 11:57 am

just a consultation on my injury plagued team. H2H league with 14 teams so the waiver wire/free agent availability is pretty dismal. here’s the situation:

felton
jameer nelson
rondo
mobley
uentin richardson (the key next to the w is bust)
paul peirce
Szczerbiak
duncan
troy murphy
boozer
tyson chandler
troy murphy
kendrick perkins
zach randolph

so as you can see my team has been destroyed by injuries. there are guys like craig smith, gerald green, smush parker, eddie jones, bruce bowen (who could help my lack of 3’s, get some steals), jeff foster out there. any thoughts on guys to drop/trade, seek out? thanks my head is spinning.

05
Andy
December 19th, 2006 12:20 pm

bublitchki, in situations like yours I sometimes conjecture what I would do if Bibby were among those available in the FA pool. If Bibby, Marbury, James, Nelson, et. al. were available in my league, I would HAVE to pick up Bibby.

Look at it this way: his rebounds, assists, and steals are all up from last season. He’s also increased his FT% (and attempts) and is actually a force in that category right now. Yes, his shooting has been awful, certainly bad enough to force him to the bench behind guys like Paul and Williams, and his points and 3’s are down correspondingly - but he is still a quality PG getting tons of minutes. Try to look at his stats objectively - 17/4/6 with over a steal and three per game on the season is not droppable, no matter what you originally expected of him.

Of course, this recent cold streak has been particularly bad and I understand the frustration, but I still don’t think dropping him is an option. Other owners would leap at the chance to add him for free.

06
DM
December 19th, 2006 1:12 pm

I think Andy nailed it. Lots of times when I drop a guy, I know that I can get him back if I want him. If you drop Bibby, be ready to move on without him for the rest of the year, because someone who’s in worse shape than you — someone who doesn’t frequent FBB — WILL pick him up. As well they should. The thing with Bibby is that he has a proven track record and as poorly as he’s playing, his opportunities aren’t decreasing. You just have to hang in there, I think, as frustrating as it may be.

07
LL
December 19th, 2006 3:05 pm

This just in: AI traded to Denver for Andre Miller, Joe Smith and picks.

My nickel analysis:

Winners:
Iverson - Just get him back on the court, please. How can he go wrong as the clear leader of this team, especially while Melo and JR are suspended. When Melo comes back, the pictures is clouded, but I don’t think AIs numbers will change much–he’s always got the ball in his hands.

Andre Miller - He’ll be asked to score for Philly, and now has a few more legit options in Iggy, Korver, and Webber.

Iggy - He’s been freed from AIs shadow, and should blossom as Philly’s premier player.

Webber - Sure he needs the ball in his hands, and I think Miller is a pass first guard that can do that for him.

Losers
Melo - This can’t be good for Melo. Instead of being a clear option 1, he’s now option 2, or at best 1b. I think he’ll be fine, but don’t be surprised to see a dip in the numbers.

Wash
Camby - I think Camby will still do his thing. The Nuggets are surprisingly reminiscent of AIs last title run team, with a good defensive center, AI, and complementary pieces. When Melo comes back, Camby’s scoring will probably diminish to 0, but I expect solid defensive numbers, as usual.

08
DM
December 19th, 2006 3:09 pm

There will be more on this tomorrow morning, obviously. As an Andre Miller owner, I’ll say that I’m not all that thrilled. I’ll explain why in detail tomorrow…

09
JM
December 19th, 2006 3:27 pm

I agree with LL’s analysis and would add the following…
I think that Iverson’s points will drop a little bit, once Anthony comes back. However I think his overall game will be totally rejuvenated by the change of scenery, the chance to prove everybody wrong, and the fast paced offense that Denver employs.

I expect to see a rise in many of Iverson’s #’s, especially FG%, assists, and a little bit in steals, rebounds due to the faster paced offense.

Congratulations to anyone who was able to Trade for Iverson for a discounted rate before news of this trade went through.

10
Rook
December 19th, 2006 3:27 pm

Bibby’s shooting troubles seem related to his wrist injury. He’s said that the injury has been preventing him from working on it. But I’ve been looking at that to see if he’s a viable guy to trade for, not as a guy to drop. You can’t drop a guy that good.

11
el carg
December 19th, 2006 3:40 pm

I can’t believe how lucky the Nuggets are to get this trade.

First, we got the best player in the deal, which is great for our team. AI is great, will make the team better and will make Carmelo better. No other 1-2 in the league matches them.

Second, the West just got a lot more competitive. Right now their are three elite teams, the Spurs, Suns, and Mavericks, with the Jazz, Clippers and (now) Nuggets seeking to join them. Having AI who is about as competive as they come leading the team with his fire and passion makes me feel a lot better about our chances.

Finally, I’m thrilled Andre Miller is gone. AI and Melo will love each other. Andre and Melo seemed like they couldn’t stand each other. Notice the fight footage, Miller is so far out of the picture. He left his team in a four and five situation and Melo had to do something. Andre was consistent and was a professional here in Denver, but the guy had no fire and seemed to have to get his. AI is a much better player.

Hopefully, the town of denver will now turn out to watch the team on its run to the title.

12
HP
December 20th, 2006 1:58 am

As a Melo owner, I think this deal just killed his value. AI is a chemistry killer, putting him with talent never really works (his play in dream team is just awful)…… and I expect his number to drop to Rip Hamilto’s. So I expect to trade him right around the end of suspension. Any recommandation for what he can trade for?

13
Jeremy
December 20th, 2006 3:12 am

Well, I don’t think that Melo is going to become Rip Hamilton or anything. At the most, he and AI might both loose 3-5 points off their scoring averages, and I doubt either of their numbers will change that much. Rather, look for complementary players such as JR Smith to get less looks, though he’ll still get plenty as the designated 3PT shooter in the lineup.

I do worry a bit about chemistry in Denver, and George Karl’s presence is usually quite polarizing (either very good or very bad) so we’ll see how that plays out. Now my takes on the situation:

Buy: Andre Iguodala - He is called AI2 for a reason, and he has a great all-around game, as evidenced with him flirting with triple-doubles whenever AI is out of hte lineup.

Buy: Pretty much all the rest of the 76s. With AI gone, there are lots of extra minutes and shots to go around. Expect guys like Willie Green and Korver to get more touches, as well as Chris Webber, when he is health, to put up decent numbers (with that horrible FG%).

Hold: Andre Miller - I am an Andre Miller owner and I’ll admit that I wasn’t that thrilled with the trade when I heard about it. However, Miller is the guy who lead the league while he was with Cleveland…anyone remember who else was on that roster? Pretty much, it should be a similar situation and I don’t see his production going down THAT much, though it does depend on the play of Webber and AI2. At least there will be less competition for playing time at the PG position so he’ll get more run.

Hold: The rest of the Nuggets. Really, I don’t see lots of players loosing signficant value…at least not players who are important on the team. I lineup of Iverson, Smith, Anthony, Nene & Camby could be very scary to go up against, especially if Nene gets into shape by the end of the season. I think that scoring will go down for everyone, because adding AI’s average would net an increase of like 15 ppg over what Denver traded away, and since Denver is already high scoring, I don’t see how those points remain. Figure AI and Carmelo to average 27-30 each, with JR getting 15, Nene 8, Camby 12, Boykins 8 and the rest of the bench another 5-10, which leaves them at about the same point totals that they are currently putting up (currently 108 per game).

Heh, so nothing much to worry about, except I like it for just about anyone on Philly and think it’ll be about even for the new-look Nuggets.

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