AI Trade Fallout

Well, that was quite the letdown, wasn’t it? All the speculation, all the hours BV spent on RealGM figuring out elaborate four-team deals, and Allen Iverson ends up getting shipped to Denver for Andre Miller, Joe Smith and a couple of draft picks. Bo-ring. A lot of people seem to think it works out well for both teams, but I’m not one of those people. The 76ers got a solid player but certainly not a difference-maker in Miller, decent salary relief in Smith, and what will likely be a couple of draft picks in the 20s. That for one of the franchise’s defining players, still in his prime. Even in the new world of the salary cap NBA, that’s still not a good deal. Maybe AI and ‘Melo won’t be a perfect match in Denver, but that’s such a ridiculous talent upgrade that of course it’s a deal that makes the Nuggets better, regardless of the fact that they don’t really have any distributors. Anyway, let’s take a look at the fantasy ramifications.

Allen Iverson – AI owners have to be thrilled with this development. When he didn’t get traded right away, as was first rumored, the worrying started and it intensified when it was reported that he might not be moved until the all-star break. But assuming he misses tonight’s game, that still leaves 58 for him to play in. If the time off helps keep him stronger for the end of the year, and he misses a few games here or there, that’ll still put him around 70, which is what you expect from AI. He’s going to the highest scoring team in the league and for the first month or so he will be the unquestioned main man. It would be shocking if he doesn’t come out of the gate flying with a flurry of 40 point games; I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a top 5 player over the next month. Of course, it will get more interesting with ‘Melo gets back. It’s hard to envision Iverson not getting his. In fact, it’s impossible. Iverson will get his. Maybe it’ll be closer to 28 instead of 31, but don’t expect a drop off, and expect a healthy helping of assists. Iverson has always put up numbers and that won’t change. He’s going to be thrilled to get back onto the floor and as long as he stays healthy, he’ll be the AI of old, just in baby blue. (On a side note, I bet those baby blue Iverson jerseys become hot sellers soon, don’t you think?)

Carmelo Anthony – Is AI’s arrival another blow to ‘Melo owners who will be without their stud for the next month or so? Well, let’s put it this way – it’s hard to envision things getting any better for ‘Melo now that Iverson’s around. Anthony got plenty of easy baskets on lobs from Andre Miller, and that’s unlikely to happen, at least right away, with AI. The good news is that he won’t have to change his game too much since he and Iverson score in different ways, and that Denver scores enough for the both of them. Anthony was playing so well before the fight that you wouldn’t be too surprised if he averaged 35, 37 ppg over a long stretch of time. It’s harder to see that now, although 30 still seems very reasonable.

Earl Boykins – Here’s the guy whose value has fluctuated the most over the past few days. He went from someone who had his uses in deep leagues, to a definite starter in most leagues, to a guy likely experiencing his last moments of fantasy relevance right now. Boykins should still have some value while ‘Melo and J.R. Smith are out, but once the Nuggets are at full strength, it’s hard to see Boykins having much of a role. Iverson will play his 40+ minutes and it’s going to be very tough for the Nuggets to have both AI and Boykins out there at the same time. His name has been involved in trade rumors for a while, and while he could get moved, the Nugs will probably hold onto him for insurance purposes. Yahkouba Diawara might even have as much of a role as Boykins since he’s a defensive presence with a solid foot in height.

J.R. Smith – There simply won’t be as many points to go around, so that will be a problem for Smith. That said, he’s still Denver’s only long-distance threat and he’ll still chuck up his share of 3s. He’s a guy who could go for 26 one night and 8 the next night, and I think inconsistency will be more pronounced with AI around. He was a solid contributor who was dominant in 3s; now he looks to be more of just a 3s specialist.

Denver Big Men – Pretty much what I said yesterday. The Nuggets might have less of a need for Nene to assert himself on offense since they’ll be getting so many points from AI, so that might mean more minutes for Reggie Evans, but that’s just a guess. Marcus Camby is still the only one with value, and that’s just until he gets hurt. But that’s an entirely different story.

Andre Miller – I said yesterday that as a Miller owner, I’m not at all thrilled with the deal. Why would I be? Miller goes from the highest scoring team in the league where he was racking up the assists and was looking at a stretch of games where he’d be one of the top scoring options, to the worst team in the league. Is it possible that he’ll step right in and be a solid 35 mpg PG in Philly? Yeah, it’s possible. But Miller can’t be too happy about stepping into this situation. And I’m just getting visions of a repeat of his disastrous season with the Clippers. The previous year in Cleveland he put up 16.5 and 10.9 (on an admittedly terrible Cavs team), but was then shipped to the Clippers for Darius Miles and put up 13.6 and 6.7 on 41% shooting in a miserable season. Maybe it’s the pessimist in me, but I can see something like that happening on this team. Also, his main sources of assists won’t be there, and it’s possible the Sixers will run the offense through Chris Webber at the high post now that AI’s not around. A best case scenario is that he sees an uptick in scoring, but he’s averaged 16+ ppg in just one of his eight seasons so far, I’m just not sure he has it in him. Miller owners have him for his assists, and those will go down. Like the ‘Melo situation, it won’t necessarily be a disaster, but it’s hard to see things getting appreciably better, and you can certainly see things getting worse.

Andre Igoudala – Now it’s time for this AI to prove himself. Perhaps Igoudala doesn’t have it in him to be a #1 guy in the NBA, but the Sixers may as well find out over the course of the rest of the season. Miller is actually a good fit for Iggy, since he has a knack for finding people far down the court and around the rim. He might find himself getting one or two easier baskets a game. He’s already at #31 on the APR – that’s mid-third round value – so it’s hard to see him getting that much beter. But getting that FG% back to around 50% and tacking on a few points could make him a top 25 guy and solidify him as a third round pick next year. I’m not totally sold that it will happen, but as always, it’s as much the opportunity as the ability. Igoudala should be out there 40 minutes every night from here on out and will have the chance to prove himself. He’s going to have tons of value.

Rest of the 76ersKyle Korver, Chris Webber and Willie Greene should all benefit from the fact that no real scorer is coming to replaced Iverson. Korver should find himself back in the starting lineup eventually, but even if he doesn’t he’ll be getting at least 30-32 mpg and should make a fine 3-point specialist. He still doesn’t have any other skills, so his upside is limited. It’s possible Webber will find himself the focal point of the team’s offense, like he was back in Sacramento. It’s also possible he just doesn’t have it in him anymore, and as the Sixers continue to lose he’ll shut it down. Webber’s shooting an impossibly bad 38% so far, and he may very well be washed up. Don’t expect miracles. Willie Greene is a horrid shooter who may get scoring opportunities, but will take advantage about half the time while doing nothing else.

01
ic
December 20th, 2006 8:45 am

oh man, i’m a andre miller, jr smith AND camby owner, i feel your pain… things don’t look so hot for me now, esp as i’m struggling to keep the lead in my roto league… i just hope andre tries to make the best out of a horrible situation and goes berserk to achieve career highs in points and assists :)

so i need 3s and assists, would you suggest dropping jr smith for any of the 76ers players (w. green)? or for someone on the waiver like cassell, head, or quentin richardson?

isaiah thomas might be the only GM who’s worse than billy king, but at least isaiah’s moves aren’t affecting me personally

02
DM
December 20th, 2006 9:51 am

Not sure I’d make a move to drop Smith for any of those guys, IC. Head would be a fine replacement for Smith as long as McGrady’s out, since he puts up at least 5 3s every game, but his long-term prognosis is shaky. I still think Smith has more upside, but if you really want to make a move, he’s the one I’d go for.

03
Andy
December 20th, 2006 10:17 am

I have to agree on Miller, he’s a vet that is going from a legit playoff team to the Sixers, who (depending on drafts and free agency) might never be serious contenders for the length of his current contract. He seems like a pretty even-keel guy but that can’t help his motivation.

Overall, as a Camby and Iguodala owner, I’m happy about the way the trade played out.

04
Jeremy
December 20th, 2006 5:10 pm

Looks like my comment from last night was pretty much spot on…huh? :)

05
Tim
December 20th, 2006 7:55 pm

I am a miller owner… I assume he will startt nexrt game?

Anyways…

Here is my line-up
In second in a eight cat (no to) eleven team league

PG: Paul
G: Miller
SG: Redd
SF: Butler
F: Josh Smith (hawks)
PF: BOozer
C: Ming
C: Mourning
Util: Felton
Util: Jefferson (Celtics)

Bench: Kristic (always play him right now)
Bench: Granger
Bench: Prince

As you can see I need to trade depth for superstar - but no one will trade with me…

What should I look for

I was offered artest and Petrus for my Butler and KRistic but I think that is not a good move for me…

I am essentially throwing threes (I am either first or second or third in every other category…) who should I target… steals is close so getting arttest is appealing to me… maybe offer kristic and granger for artest?

I don;t know…

06
Jeremy
December 21st, 2006 11:53 am

I too wouldn’t make too drastic of moves. Caron is having a great year with his rebounds, steals and outstanding percentages. However, I do see that you might need or want more threes, so I would recommend making for another 3PT shooter, however you can work it in (guys like Paul, Miller, Josh Smith, Butler, and your other wings don’t shoot threes like superstars to).

Is this a daily or a weekly league, cause it would determine what I would do. Could you play Jefferson or Boozer at center? That could open up your rotation by getting a big man like Villanueva or Okur who shoots threes, or trade away either Granger or Prince for a 3PTM specialist like Korver, especially with AI gone, who hopefully will get his shots for the rest of the year.

Luckily, 3PTM seems like a category that is pretty easy to get help in if you really need it, as you can do lots of things, flexibility wise in your roster to make it happen. Good luck with it though.

07
Jeremy
December 21st, 2006 12:03 pm

Actually, thinking around, I would definitly try to ride out Morning while he still is giving you a ton of blocks, that way you can move Jefferson to center and then I would, as I mentioned, target a player to give you 3’s. Prime candidates to get you good value without giving up too much are:

Andres Nocioni
Mo Williams
Shane Battier (maybe, depends on how smart owner is)

But you get the idea. Battier was dropped in my league at one point, but he really is a roto stud, so maybe you can haggle your way into getting him in a package for a bench player or two.

08
Tim
December 21st, 2006 8:44 pm

thanks,

but I am going to try to take a different tack…
I don;t think I can compete in threes … I am already behind a lot in that category. But I think I can still win! As I am only behind first by 1 point right now with less games… I think the best aI can do in threes is second or third worst - one or two points….
what do you think?

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