Comeback Kids?

About a month into the season it was panic time for a couple of fantasy owners.  Some of those high-round picks were not just struggling - they were downright disappointing.  After a few more weeks, though, some of them are starting to pull themselves out from the abyss and are performing closer to where their owners expected when they drafted them.  Let’s take a look at some of the early-season strugglers and see what a few more weeks have done for them:

Gerald Wallace
Who woulda thought that all this time it was Sean May, of all people, who was keeping Wallace down?  May went down with an ankle sprain on Saturday night, and Wallace Has responded with his two best games of the season by a wide margin.  He’s even blocked four shots filling in for May, matching his total from the previous FIFTEEN GAMES.  Still, before this 2-game resurgence, all had not been well in Gerald-land.  The blocks obviously haven’t been there, steals have been down, and the FG% has been a major downer as well.  The question, of course, is if this resurgence will be a long-lasting lone, or just a ‘comma’ on Wallace’s season.  We’ll find out soon enough, as May is due back shortly (he was hoping to play last night but obviously that didn’t happen).  if Wallace keeps up his strong play after May returns, then I’ll be willing to reconsider his “bust” status.  But until that happens, I’m just not going to be convinced.  About a month ago I suggested trading FOR Crash if you’re in last place because of his potential to break out, and I’ll stand by that.

Boris Diaw
There was a great deal of concern about Diaw and his slow start.  There were a ton of red flags that suggested he might not pull himself out of it.  Number one, of course, was the return of Amare Stoudamire, pushing Diaw out of the middle and out of the comfort zone he had found last year.  The other major concern was Diaw’s conditioning, as he apprently showed up to camp out of shape and overweight - which is particularly bad if you’re on a team that flourishes in the open court and runs like crazy for 48 minutes.  DM suggested a week into the season that Diaw owners should be patient, and I agreed a few weeks later, but by the time Thanksgiving rolled around I was wondering if maybe fatigue from the World Championships was also a factor.

Well here we are in the middle of December and here’s a familiar looking stat line: 13/6.1/6.2 with 1.2 blocks, .8 steals and over 50% from the field.  Yep, that’s what Boris has been up to so far this month, almost identical to his numbers last year.  Even more encouraging is the fact that he’s been doing this with a healthy Stoudamire playing beside him.  Diaw owners may be looking to sell high here but honestly, if you want to take a risk I think this is a great one to go after.  If you can swing a deal for Diaw by giving up 5th or 6th round value I say go for it.  He looks to be recovered and should be valuable from here on out.

Ben Wallace
November was not exactly a good month for the new Bull.  Big Ben was unhappy, out of sorts, clashing with his coach, and - perhaps worst of all - playing some horrible ball.  Wallace owners like our own PR really needed to see a fast start after he played so poorly at the end of last year, but instead Wallace continued to struggle and owners started looking to sell.  Of course, PR was the first to mention Wallace’s big coming out party the other night, and I’m obviously impressed by the 47 rebounds in two nights.  But I’m also concerned that we may be hopping back on the bandwagon a little too quickly. 

Take away those two games and Wallace is still under double-digit rebounds for the month - and the year, for that matter.  To me, the good signs about Wallace aren’t the blow-up games, because those only come around once in a great while.  I’m more interested to see what Wallace does on an “average” night.  And there’s good news here, too.  Wallace’s blocks have climed back over the 2.0 mark, and he’s even been scoring a not-disastrous 8 ppg in December.  So those are the real encouraging signs here.  Let’s be patient with Wallace and get a bigger sample size here before passing judgement.

Speedy Claxton
Remember when you guys all gave me shit for drafting Jarrett Jack in the 7th round, and yet PR took Claxton with the next pick and nobody said a word?  Well, here’s a word: DAMN STRAIGHT.  OK, so that’s two words, but Jack is clocking in at 42 on the player rater while Claxton is clocking in at KFC.

Really, though, Claxton has started to show some signs of life now that Tyronne Lue has gone down with an injury. Sure the points are nice but even better has been the assists and steals.  He’s picked up at least 3 steals in six of his nine games this month and is averaging 2.7 of them to go along with 6.1 assists in December.  Claxton may be available in your league and is a great candidate to stash on your bench to see what happens after Lue returns.  Claxton is still a pretty big wild card as he struggles to find a role on the Hawks, but they’ve locked him up to a long-term deal so they’re going to give him every opportunity to put it together.

01
December 21st, 2006 1:26 pm

News just came out that Pierce will be out for at least 2 weeks. How would you guys rank these guys in terms of value increase based on this piece of news? Here’s my crack at it.

1. Gerald Green - Will likely see ~35 minutes per game.
2. Delonte West - He will be backing up both guard spots and maybe even start at the two, and will definitly play a much bigger role on offense.
3. Tony Allen - Will be very effective, he’s 3rd because he’s already getting around 40 minutes this past week.

02
DM
December 21st, 2006 2:14 pm

You know who I actually just picked up? Ryan Gomes. At least he’s proven he can score and grab boards, so I replaced Damien Wilkins in my short-term injury fill-in spot. Green and West could be nice, but we’ll see. If Wally can get on the court he should have plenty of opportunities. This should let Allen keep his groove and also help Jefferson really assert himself.

03
MIKE
December 21st, 2006 3:38 pm

Question -

I have a big lead in assists, thanks to Baron Davis and Deron Williams; my other PGs are Terry and Bibby (and I have good assist Fs like LeBron and Mike Miller). I just got offered Shawn Marion for Baron and Deron. I could use the blocks…Can I afford to make this deal.

Also, I have another deal in the works that would deal Boozer, Al Jefferson, and M. Miller for KG and Heinrich.

I’d love to do both of these deals, to field a team that includes LeBron, the Matrix, and KG. Can I afford it?

04
bv
December 21st, 2006 3:50 pm

Mike,

the question isn’t if you can afford to make that deal - the question is, can you afford NOT to make it? Make the Marion deal now - i mean right now - and don’t look back.

05
MIKE
December 21st, 2006 4:02 pm

I think you’re right. Just to be sure, let me give you my team; currently in first by a decent margin. I liked my draft. Over the course of the year I have acquired Boozer (for Z. Randolph), Bosh (for T-Mac), Iguodala (for K. Martin), and Terry (for Tinsley). I also scooped Al Jefferson off waivers. I am trying to “consolidate” since I have lots of nice players who contribute and have had to shuffle guys in and out of the lineup:

PG - B. Davis, D. Williams, Bibby, J. Terry, C. Atkins
SG - Iguodala, M. Miller, M. Webster
SF - LeBron, L. Deng
PF - Boozer, Bosh, Al Jefferson, SAR
C - Ilgauskus, Dalembert (Boozer, Bosh, Jefferson, and SAR are also eligible here)

We start a PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, 2 C, 2 UTIL. I don’t even know what my starting lineup should be now, but I usually have filled the UTIL with 2 PGs and had Deng and either Z or Dalembert on the bench (also, Bosh has been hurt)

Trading those 2 PGs for Marion would be quite a hit to my 3s and assists, but I think I’d be OK.

I’m also intrigued by the possibility of trading for KG.

Appreciate all of your advice….

06
JM
December 21st, 2006 5:47 pm

mike,
whenever you can get the 2 best fantasy players in most formats (Marion and KG) by giving up an assortment of players (none of whom are even at a 2nd round value) I would certainly make those deals…With KG and Marion on your team it’d be very strange if you didn’t win the league by a large margin…

The question is how many players are in this league?
Having Lebron,KG,and Marion on one team is absolutely ridiculous, unless the league only has like 3 teams or so.

07
Jeremy
December 22nd, 2006 3:55 am

So, Bibby has been in quite the funk, but do you think he’ll step out of it. It was only two years ago that he was #12 on the Yahoo rater.

I’m considering offering Bibby & Kaman for Iguodala and Gasol. It would hurt my threes, which I feel are already somewhat weak, but since it is H2H I don’t think it would mater too much. I guess the main thing is what to expect from Gasol. He is shooting the ball well now but isn’t rebounding, and who knows how he’ll actually recover from the foot injury.

I know that Iggy and Gasol are probably the better talent, and I think this trade might slide because the guys likes Kaman as a sentimental favorite. Also, Kaman, for as bad as he started, is starting to get better, and I’d hate to give him up if he really starts to turn it on. Would throwing out another big such as Krstic, Al Jefferson or Wilcox first make sense, and what would you suggest.

Anyways, I’m targeting Igulodala and Gasol and my team is:

Lebron, Pierce, J.Johnson, Bibby, Camby, David West, Chris Webber, Josh Howard, Kevin Martin, Deron Williams, Andre Miller, Al Jefferson, Wilcox, Krstic & Kaman.

Advice? Thanks.

08
Jeremy
December 22nd, 2006 4:21 am

Overall, the guys I’m actively willing to ship are Andre Miller, David West, Chris Webber, Krstic, Wilcox, Jefferson, and (reluctantly) Kaman and Bibby.

Like I said, I imagine that Bibby/Kaman will play better as the year goes on, so I’d rather not give them up, but at the same time I need to provide decent value to the other player if I want to score Iggy/Gasol.

Some combinations I’ve thought of include:

Bibby/Kaman (tough, since they were my 4th/6th round picks)
A.Miller/Kaman (hmm)

Players like West or Webber could be in the place of Kaman, though I don’t think they’d bite because of injuries and also because he has a particular liking of Kaman.

Maybe even a combination of larger guys would work, like Krstic/Kaman or something of that nature…idk.

Anyways, what do you guys think is a decent trade proposal, with the value obviously tipped in my favor.

For the record, he also has Heinrich, Carter, KG, Ben Gordon, Iggy, Butler, D.Howard, Troy Murphy, Mike Miller, Jamal Crawford, Smush Parker, Fred Jones, Peja, Gasol, & Nick Collison.

I should note that Jameer Nelson is sitting out on the Free Agency list right now, and I wouldn’t be opposed to taking back Collison along with Pau/Iggy and trading 3 of my guys since I could drop and grab Jameer.

….. Anyways, sorry to ramble but just looking for good opportunities following the trade…not too experienced at trading. All I’ve done so far this year is turn Larry Hughes/Zaza Pachulia into Josh Howard and Luol Deng and then Deng into David West (pre-injury).

Thanks for any advice. :)

09
MIKE
December 22nd, 2006 8:23 am

JM, BV-

Thanks for the advice. Its a twelve team league. I’d argue that B. Davis is a second round value, but I get the point. I’m going to make the Marion deal. Looks like the other guy got cold feet on the KG deal. Still, it will be awesome to have LeBron and the Matrix!

10
LL
December 22nd, 2006 8:47 am

Guys,

Great Blog. It’s always a fun read, and most of the time, you guys are very insightful and spot on with your commentary. Just wanted to wish you and the readership a happy holidays! Hopefully next year, we can get a league started among the readers. Any takers?

11
wed
December 22nd, 2006 9:01 am

ok, i’m destroyed by injuries right now. having peirce, wally szczerbiak, troy murphy, richardson (ny), kendrick perkins, jameer nelson amongst others on my team. i need to do something. trades are an option but for a fast fix im thinking drop and add from the depleted free agents in my 14 team league. guys available are tony allen, geralrd green (figuring they’ll see time with the c’s injuries), earl watson, bruce bowen, james posey, brendan haywood, amongst others.
the two most likely players im thinking of dropping are rondo and troy murphy. any thoughts on who to pick up? my hunch is tony allen, maybe green, maybe watson or bowen. any help is much appreciated

12
MIKE
December 22nd, 2006 9:25 am

FWIW, I’d drop Rondo and rank the guys on the list Allen, Watson, Green.

13
bv
December 22nd, 2006 10:03 am

jeremy, the thing abuot the guys that you’re actively willing to trade is that all of them are either serious risks or not very good - or both! i’d try to take some of those risks (namely miller) and ship them to a struggling team looking to try and pull themselves out from the bottom. I think dealing bibby is also a good thought if you go with this idea, his wrist is obviously a mojor factor right now.

ll, thanks, and happy holidays to you too! we’ve with flirted with the idea of a league … it’ll be something to discuss next summer for sure.

wed, i’d drop rondo in a heartbeat - he has no business being on a fantasy team right now - and pick up watson, esp with allen still out and lewis potentially out for a good chunk of time.

14

[…] Are you in need of assists? Claxton’s gotten some attention for his play while Tyronne Lue has been out with a groin strain. Ride him while you can. […]

Leave Your Comment

Name*
Mail*
Website
Comment