This Week In Hot Pickups

Injuries have led to plenty of very hot pickups in the past week. Let’s take a look at some of those players and see what we can expect from them in the short term and long term.

Josh Childress
Childress finally returned last night after missing just over a month with a broken left foot. It didn’t take him long to make an impact. First off, let’s ignore all the numbers but one – 35. As in, the number of minutes Childress played in his first game back. That’s the most important number of the night, as it shows that he can handle the PT and that Mike Woodson trusts him out there, which can’t necessarily be said about one of the guys he’s competing with, Marvin Williams. Will Mike Woodson be around much longer? That’s debatable. But with Josh Smith out for a month, Childress will have his opportunity to make an impact. I don’t like bench players, but at least in Childress’s case he’s been proven effective while coming off the bench. Childress didn’t start any of the season’s first seven games but still averaged 37 minutes per contest, so he will get his minutes. Even if he doesn’t get quite that many, he does what a bench player needs to do to have fantasy value – contribute strong percentages. Because bench players don’t get as many minutes to help with the counting stats, it’s important for them to help out wherever they can, and as a career 51/80 shooter, Childress does just that. His line tonight was about what you expect from him – 13 and 6 with a couple steals and blocks on 6-of-13 shooting. One more shot goes in and that’s 54% instead of 46%, and at least he attempted a couple of 3s even if he didn’t hit any. If you’ve seen me talk about players who help good fantasy teams more than they help bad ones, Childress is a good example of a player like that. He won’t help you make a big push in the standings, for but a team that’s near the top and needs someone solid to hold down a utility or bench slot, he’s a perfect choice.

Jannero Pargo
I was all ready to write about what a disappointment Pargo was in his first start of the season last night, since he was scoreless well into the second half. Then he caught fire during a Hornets come back attempt and finished with a very respectable 16/6/5 line, even though he didn’t add anything to it. Pargo came into last night’s game as one of the league’s most notorious gunners, averaging nearly 10 attempts per game in just 23 mpg, attempting shots at roughly the same rate as Kobe Bryant. So his 11 attempts in 35 minutes was far less than I was expecting, but I expect Pargo to be up his usual gunning ways when the Hornets host the Nuggets on Friday. And I think you’ll want to find room for him in your lineup for that one. It might take him 20 shots to get his 20 points, but he should be in store for a big game. Estimates have Paul out for two to four games, but it would be downright shocking if he’s back after missing just two contests and not at all surprising if he misses more than four. So Pargo might get an extended chance to prove himself. I consider him a much better option than Desmond Mason, who might score a couple more points, but really has very little else to add, save a few boards. Pargo is sort of a Chucky Atkins-type, but less of a playmaker, as he’ll go for stretches where nobody else will touch the ball and it’ll just be him alternating between driving for layups and launching 3s. The kind of guy fantasy players don’t mind having around.

Matt Barnes
What in the wide world of sports is going on by the bay? Matt Barnes pours in 25 points on 9 attempts? That’s something Gilbert Arenas should be doing. I picked up Barnes a few days ago and threw him in the lineup for that great game, figuring he’d see plenty of time on the court with Golden State’s roster in the condition its in, and sure enough he played 45 minutes. But what will that next game be like? Back on Nov. 27 Barnes played 45 minutes and had a very solid game of 13/7/6 with 2 3s, a steal and 3 blocks in a win over the Spurs. But two nights later he scored just 3 points in 19 minutes in a loss to the Pacers. He was out of the starting lineup the next game and was  DNP-CD just five games after that 24 point outing. Then three games later he was back in the starting lineup, going for 32/11/3 with 6 3s, 3 steals and a block in 44 minutes. Since then he’s managed to stick in the starting lineup, starting 9 of the Warriors past ten games. His minutes have gone 26-32-40-45 in the last four as the team fights the injury bug, and he’s scored double digits in 5 of his last 6. So this is all very good. But it should be obvious that Barnes simply cannot be counted on long term. Mickael Pietrus is back, and while that didn’t cut in Barnes time last night, he won’t be shooting lights out like that every game. And he certainly won’t keep up that 48% from the three-point range much longer. That’s truly one of the most outrageous statistics of the year. It’s really simple what to do with Barnes – leave him in the lineup and ride out this hot streak and hope it lasts for a while. Park him on the bench when he goes cold and see if another hot streak follows soon. And if it doesn’t, say goodbye.

Gerald Green
So my Ryan Gomes pickup in the wake of Paul Pierce’s injury sure doesn’t look so good. Gerald Green was certainly the high-upside pickup in Pierce’s absence, but I had my doubts. But he’s certainly proven me wrong so far. Three starts is not the biggest sample size, but it’s hard to argue with 18.3/8/1.3 with 3.3 3s, 1.7 steals and 1.3 blocks. OK, so the 43/53 shooting is very bad, and that was one of the reasons I was staying away from him. I always seem to start off very strong in the percentage categories and keep dropping as the season goes on, and I wanted to make sure that didn’t happen this year. Still, as long as he gets things straight at the line – and he should be able to settle in at at least 70% – his 43% from the field is very manageable if he keeps putting up insane numbers like he has the past few games. People always used Tracy McGrady as the comparison point for Green and it’s looking pretty apt. He has a beautiful stroke from long range and can leap out of the gym. Wally Szczerbiak’s return might cut into Green’s scoring opportunities a bit, but I wouldn’t count on it. In last night’s blowout Green had five fouls and still played 34 minutes, second to only Sebastian Telfair’s 35, and he had to put in extra time because Delonte West was out. That’s a very good sign for Green, although he has amassed five fouls in two straight games, so that might catch up to him soon. The big question is whether Green has earned himself enough PT when Pierce gets back to remain fantasy relevant. We can’t be sure yet. Tony Allen seems to be sticking in the starting lineup – how about scoring 13 points on one field goal attempt last night! You can’t have a TS% much better than that! And Pierce is obviously going to have his spot. So it would seem like Green would be the odd man out unless Doc Rivers did something weird and played Pierce at PF, which I can’t see him doing, especially right after he comes back from injury. But Green has flashed enough skills to merit holding onto for a while as a bench player, and if you play in a keeper league, he’s obviously a very valuable commodity.

01
December 28th, 2006 9:40 am

maybe they’ll put Green at PF for a game here or there and play Pierce at the 3, Green IS listed as a PF on yahoo haha

02
nwj
December 28th, 2006 1:41 pm

in a 14 team league, is stevie franchise worth keeping? he sucks, but so does the waiver wire,a nd at least he has a 12/5 potential… i can’t believe i just said that.

03
bublitchki
December 28th, 2006 2:30 pm

I’ve been seriously considering picking up Tony Allen off the wire. I agree that he should have more value than Green for the rest of this season. But just what do you think his long-term prospects will be once Pierce, Szczerbiak and West are fully healthy?

On the one hand, he has been blowing up over the last month and it will be hard for Rivers to seriously cut back his minutes. On the other hand where exactly would he play? With Wally locked in at the 2, Pierce at the 3, West/Telfair at the 1, and Jefferson at the 5, the only position in flux is the 4, not exactly a good fit for Allen.

Whaddaya think? Is it still possib;e for him to get 35 mins once everyone is back from injury or will he wind up the odd man out?

04
DM
December 28th, 2006 2:37 pm

I think Francis is pretty worthless on the Knicks, but in a 14-team league there might not be anyone better. Gotta think he’s behind even Q and Nate when they come back, though.

As for the C’s, I’m not so sure that Wally is locked in at the 2. I could see them leaving Allen as a starter, since he’s a much better defender, and bringing Wally off the bench for some instant offense, letting Allen/Pierce handle the 2/3. So while he might not get 35 mpg, it’s hard to see him being the odd man out. Doc seems to like him.

05
Andy
December 28th, 2006 3:30 pm

The whole situation in Boston is confusing the hell out of me. Will Wally even have much fantasy value coming off the bench?

06
S
December 29th, 2006 6:33 am

good work guys….What’s your prognosis on Troy Murphy? I was about to cut Shaun Livingston for Gerald Green (Need help at PF/C, just lost Yao and Odom), but was then offered Murphy for Livingston. Should I make the trade and wait for Murphy to come back?

07
Dave
December 29th, 2006 8:10 am

Is it worth hanging onto Rashard Lewis? I’m in a 10 team H2H league and every week is tight.

08
Francesc
December 29th, 2006 8:33 am

I play in a deep league where we keep most players from year to year. There are also specific rules to not allow streaming, so if i sign a player i will have a tough time to drop him.

I was thinking about signing Gerald Green or Tony Allen, but i’m afraid of their PT when everybody is healthy again in Boston. Also, if i finally decide to sign some, i wouldn’t want to miss Green if he’s ever gonna be given big PT next season.

What do you guys think about them both looking at this season and next one? (i know it’s tough to tell about next season, but i have to care now, i’m afraid)

Keep up the good work, and thanks in advance!

09
Andy
December 29th, 2006 9:08 am

S - BV and I have both been hanging on to Murphy. Supposedly he could play as early as Saturday. He was pretty inconsistent (both in playing time and performance) before getting hurt, and it seems like Nellie doesn’t like his game that much. Still, as a C-eligible guy in the Warriors offense, you have to think Murphy will have value when he comes back.
However, I would only trade Livingston for him if you’re really desperate at C - with Cassell out “indefinitely”, I think Livingston has far more value than Murphy (or Green) right now. He’s not really showing it yet, but I would want him on my roster if I could get him.

Dave - don’t even consider dropping Lewis.

Francesc - that’s the million dollar question! Based on what I’ve seen, Allen should still get a fair amount of minutes once everyone is healthy. It sounds like Wally Szczerbiak is going to be the starter, but Allen has played so well that I think he’s got to get some minutes. I think he and Wally will cut into each other’s fantasy value.
As far as Green, despite his strong play, I don’t see him getting a ton of minutes once Pierce gets back - Pierce plays 40 minutes a game, and there just won’t be PT available at the 3 for Green. He could get some run at the 4 due to Ryan Gomes’ uninspired play but he’s too skinny to play there all the time, especially since Al Jefferson is also slightly undersized at C.

10
Jeremy
December 29th, 2006 5:00 pm

You know, with all of these injuries that have occured recently, it’s funny to look back at this season (in fantasy) as pretty strange. Sure, players get hurt every year, and you can pencil guys like Baron Davis and Camby to miss some time, but this year we’ve seen major players (starters) from just about every single team miss significant playing time.

And knowing how to deal with this injury outbreak is going to define this season in fantasy basketball. There are a couple of strategies to take, and it depends on (1) game format, (2) who is on your team already, and (3) you standing in the league.

For example, if you have a limit of 82 games played per position, then you can play your bench players same to make up for the lost games and there won’t be a problem. The bigger issue comes from H2H and regular Roto leagues where they can play as many games as possible. In H2H, most teams will have players that are hurt, so at least that somewhat neutralizes the pain, but still teams that are healthy and producing can make major headways for this short period of time.

One strategy is to drop good players (picked in round 4-6) for a healthy guy on the waiver. While this may be okay for dropping a guy who is questionable to come back this season (Peja) I tend to dislike this strategy, because then you are stuck with inferior players for the rest of the season. Yet, it is exactly what the top player in my H2H league decided to do when he dropped Josh Smith, out only 4-6 weeks.

The other strategy is to use this time to throw out some buy-low deals. For example, maybe you trade a 4th and 5th round value player for Yao Ming and Rashard Lewis, expecting them to put up 1st/2nd round value when they return. This is the stategy that, while you have to really think about for yourself in Roto, is something I recommend in H2H if you are at all near the middle or top of the standings.

In my case, I am currently third in H2H, despite not having Camby, Pierce, David West, (and recently Krstic and Chris Webber). I recently dropped Webber for Josh Smith, becuase I can afford the risk of waiting it out. Sure, I might lose the next three weeks until this guys are healthy, but I won’t lose that bad. At worst, I’ll still be in contention for a playoff spot, and with all of my guys back I’ll be able to make a strong push in the end.

Anyways, that’s my take on the current injury situation in the NBA, and how you deal with it will define how well you do, as it’s easier to buy low on a guy like Yao Ming when they are injured for another month than at any other time.

11
Jeremy
December 29th, 2006 5:22 pm

Significant Injuries (missing time throughout the year):

Atlanta Hawks: Josh Smith, Marvin Williams
Boston Celtics: Paul Pierce, Wally, Jefferson, Perkins
Charlotte Bobcats: Knight, May
Chicago Bulls: - N/A -
Cleveland Cavs: Hughes
Dallas Mavericks: Howard, Stackhouse
Detroit Pistons: - N/A -
Denver Nuggets: Carmelo, JR Smith, Nene, Camby
Golden State Warriors: Baron, Monta, Murphy, Richardson, Pietrus
Houston Rockets: TMac, Yao
Los Angeles Clippers: Cassell, Kaman
Lost Angeles Lakers: Odom, Kwame
Indiana Pacers: - N/A -
Miami Heat: O’Neal
Milwaukee Bucks: Simmons, Charlie V
Memphis Grizzlies: Pau Gasol
Minnesotta TWolves: McCants
New Jersey Nets: Jefferson, Krstic
New Orleans Hornets: Paul, Peja, West, Jackson
New York Knicks: Frye, Francis, Richardson
Orlando Magic: Nelson, Hedo
Phoenix Suns: - N/A -
Portland TrailBlazers: Roy, Miles, Pryzbilla
Philadelphia 76ers: AI, Webber
Sacramento Kings: Bibby, Miller,
San Antonio Spurs: - N/A -
Seattle SuperSonics: Lewis, Ray Allen
Toronto Raptors: Bosh
Utah Jazz: AK47 (plus he’s been sucking)
Washington Wizards: - N/A -

Anyways that’s just who I can think of off the top of my head and these are all players who were probably drafted or picked up and on a roster at some point in the season. And all of these players missed significant time. So, lots of teams quite heavily affected.

12
rich
December 29th, 2006 5:26 pm

Bibby hasn’t missed a game, though his FG% has taken a nosedive thanks to his wrist injury.

13
Jeremy
December 29th, 2006 6:20 pm

Yeah, I was gonna mention that note about Bibby, but it does without saying because he has been absolutely horrible and no where near his performance the last two years.

14
May 17th, 2007 4:29 am

Nice!

15
May 17th, 2007 9:17 am

Cool.

16
May 21st, 2007 1:31 pm

Nice

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