Happy Hannukah Hebrew Nation!  Here’s a look at NBA’s week 12/18-12/24:

Four games: Golden State, Memphis, New Jersey, New Orleans, New York, Toronto, Utah.

Three Games: Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Houston, Indiana, LA Clippers, LA Lakers,  Miami, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Orlando, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Sacramento, San Antonio, Seattle, Washington.

Two Games: Boston, Detroit, Portland.

Al Jefferson has officially arrived.  He is delivering the goods just in time for the holidays.  I’ve always been a big proponent of big Al and I am confident that he’ll remain a near fantasy stud from here on out.  After posting 28 and 10 tonight, he’s averaging 15/11/1 with 2 swats over his 6 starts.  Plus, if/when he earns center-eligibility he could propel himself to one of the top centers in the league.  Kendrick Perkins is dealing with chronic foot problems, and Ryan Gomes could be the one asked to come off the bench once the frontcourt is completely healthy anyway.  If you’re looking for FG%, points, boards, and blocks from a soon-to-be F/C, you need to go after Jefferson.  I’d take him over whiteys like Bogut, Murphy, and Kaman.

We may have (somewhat) written off Ben Wallace over the past few weeks as being on the downside of his career… then you see his stat line tonight: 10/27/6, 3 steals, 3 blocks – Why did we doubt you Big Ben? You’ve hauled in 47 rebounds in your last two games… when was the last time someone did that?  Seriously, someone please look that up.  Wallace now has 5 straight games with double figure rebounds, and 3 straight scoring at least 10.  Perhaps he’s found his groove in Chi-Town.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:

Carlos Arroyo / Keyon Dooling, PG:  Both of Orlando’s backup point guards are getting plenty of burn right now with Jameer Nelson sidelined with a groin injury.  Hill and Turkoglu are also out with their own alleged “day-to-day” injuries.  The absence of those three players leaves 37 ppg that need to be made up.  Arroyo will dish, Dooling will score, and both can hit about one trey per game with starter’s minutes.  Take your pick, or go ahead and plug them both in for three games next week.

Damien Wilkins, G/F: Superstar Ray Allen is expected to miss another week with a strained foot tendon, and swingman Damien Wilkins has been filling in.  In five starts Wilkins is averaging 15/5/3 plus 2 thefts per game.  He won’t shoot too many threes, but he’ll contribute in just about every other category.  Make use of Wilkins for at least one more week.  Earl Watson owners may want to get him in their lineups as well.

Luther Head, G: I recommended starting him last week because of his contributions from long range and suggested he could be a serious force if T-Mac were to miss time.  Head has now started the last two games, hitting 18 of 35, including 7 for 16 threes.  He’s a lot like Jamal Crawford in that he is a shoot-first point guard who loves dialing from long distance.  A must-start while McGrady is out.

In most leagues the waiver wire is like the Wild West. First-come, first-served, it’s a free-for-all, so unless you have the good fortune to be right at the computer when someone is in the midst of the breakout game, chances are one of those other nerds in your league is going to beat you to the new breakout star. It’s not a perfect method by any means, but hey, who likes paying for premium league services? So what to do? Well, that’s obvious. Find those breakout players before the breakout games. Since there’s nothing new on the AI front (at least as I type this late Wednesday evening), let’s take a look at four current bench guys I think are worth stashing away.

Anderson Varejao
During last year’s Wizards/Cavs playoff series, Varejao was the player I hated most on the Cavs. And I admit that part of it was envy – man how the Wizards could have used his relentless rebounding and hustle. But he also had his share of borderline dirty plays, but I’d be defending him if he was on my team, one of those guys. Anyway, Varejao returned to the bench last night with Drew Gooden back from his groin injury, but the poofy-haired one still saw the most minutes in the Cleveland frontcourt – by far. In his last three games he has averaged 34.7 mpg and put up an impressive line of 15.3/9/1 on 55% shooting. The steals haven’t been there the past few nights, but with consistent PT he would put up above-average numbers for a power forward, with mediocre block numbers. He’s a rebounding machine, for sure. His rate is actually down this year, but he’s the type of guy who should grab around 10 boards every time he sees 30 minutes. He’s also a high percentage shooter and his free throws are weak, but improving. So how will he get the minutes? He could push Gooden aside, although that could still end up being a shaky situation. But what if Zydrunas Ilgauskas misses some time? Big Z has been better lately, but he still hasn’t topped 20 points yet this year and you just get a feeling that some time off may be in his future. If that happened, I’d expect Varejao to get the call in the middle, and he would certainly produce. (And hopefully get some center eligibility.) Varejao’s also a restricted free agent, so he has incentive to put up some numbers. Right now Varejao’s useable in weekly leagues when he has a four-game week, although he’s still a dicey option in daily leagues since it’s hard to know when his good games will be. But in 2007, expect him to be an option for everyone.

Danny Granger
Granger may have been cut after he got benched, but he’s well worth holding onto. He’s still seeing very healthy minutes off the bench and is a reasonable option in deep leagues right now, although he has the type of “little-bit-of-everything” game that lends itself well to a consistent 35 mpg as opposed to an inconsistent 28 mpg. I like to say that guys like Granger, who are solid across the board without being dominant anywhere, help a good fantasy team more than a weak fantasy team. A weak fantasy team needs to gain ground, and that’s done with players who can help you make big moves in the categories. A solid fantasy team likely has some studs, so a guy like Granger can help hold down the fort. Granger has certainly become more of an outside player in his second season, which is good and bad for his fantasy value. He averaged just 0.4 3pg last year, but is up to 1.7 this year on 42% shooting. But this also means he’s hanging around outside more and his rebound and block rates are down substantially. He’s still very capable of averaging a steal and block per game and maybe that can be with 1.5 3s instead of just a single trey. The Pacers are desperately trying to unload Stephen Jackson, have a fragile Jermaine O’Neal and Jeff Foster always seems to be in an out of the starting lineup as the season carries on. It would be surprising if Granger isn’t in the starting five at some point soon. He’s not someone to give up on.

LaMarcus Aldridge
He was a hot pickup a few weeks ago and is a forgotten man now. He hit bottom last night with a scoreless four minute stint against Memphis. Ouch. All rookies have their ups and downs, and Aldridge is certainly experiencing his downs right now. But don’t forget the talent he flashed when he was starting and don’t forget who he’s competing with for minutes in Portland. Aldridge has shown a surprisingly well-rounded offensive game, although he still seems a bit more comfortable taking jumpers than working inside, sort of like Channing Frye. His rebound and block numbers were modest for a center, but at least he can shoot (51/79 in his limited time). The main reason I like Aldridge is that as the year goes on, it becomes a lot more likely that he’ll be the man in the middle in Portland. Joel Przybilla’s a good guy, an excellent shot blocker and a solid rebounder, but he’s stretched as a started and really can’t handle much more than 20 minutes per game. He’s important to the Blazers because he’s their main defense around the rim, but he’s injury prone and just can’t handle much PT. Jamaal Magloire’s had a decent run lately, at least by his current standards, but you have to think Portland will be able to find some team that is desperate enough for a big body and an expiring contract to take him off their hands. Raef Lafrentz … I’m not even going to bother. Even Zach Randolph, and it pains me to say it, you never know. If you woke up tomorrow and read that Randolph was arrested and out for the season, you wouldn’t be all that surprised, right? I like Aldridge’s game, but his long-term opportunity is just as nice.

Morris Peterson
MoPete finally came into his own last season after so many years of being mediocre, and the good vibes didn’t last at all. He got off to a fairly slow start (although he still hit 16 3s in his 6 starts) and lost his starting job, then he got hurt and saw his ironman streak snapped. He’s back now and he’s still coming off the bench, but we’ll see how long that lasts. He’s scored in double figures in each of the past four and he’s continuing to fire up plenty of 3s. Not like his former teammate Vince Carter, mind you, but WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON THERE?! SERIOUSLY, 31 ATTEMPTED 3S OVER A TWO GAME SPAN?! Sorry, just had to get that out of my system. Anyway, Peterson has 8 3s and 5 steals in four games since coming back from injury, and that’s in just 26.5 mpg off the bench. Granted, there have been more shots to go around the past few games with Chris Bosh out. The Raptors broke a four-game losing streak with an impressive win at Orlando last night, so a lineup change might not be imminent now, but it’s hard to see Peterson coming off the bench for the entire season. Despite his recent injury, he’s proven to be one of the most durable players in the league, so when one of those swingmen goes down, he’ll be there to pick up the slack. Even off the bench he’s a decent source of 3s and steals, although you know that I have issues using non-starters. I just think Peterson won’t be in that category all season.

Well, I’ve held out as long as I could, and with no official Allen Iverson trade yet, I guess I’m going to have to pass on the trade-response column and let DM do it tomorrow, that lucky jerk.

In other news, could this be the untimely end of Tracy McGrady as we know him?  Consider the evidence:

- In the last four seasons his FT% has gone from 80 to 77 to 74 to 68. 

- In that same time his 3PM has gone from 2.6 to 1.8 to 1.6 to 1.4 … while his 3PA has gone from 7.7 to 4.7 in a similar steady decline.

- He hasn’t averaged seven rebounds since 2001-02.

- While the spike in assists this year could be taken as a good sign, he’s also had a big spike in turnovers.  In fact, of the top 20 assist men in the league, only Gilbert Arenas, Allen Iverson and Dwyane Wade have a worse Assist/TO Ratio.

- Also disturbing is the fact that his newfound penchant for passing has not resulted in a higher FG%.  The 45% that he shot in his prime (can you believe I’m saying “in his prime” about a guy who’s 27 years old?) is now a distant memory.  Even though he’s taken the fewest shots of his post-Toronto career, that apparently doesn’t mean he’s taking any better shots.

I would say, looking at all this information, that this isn’t the end of T-Mac as we know him - rather, the T-Mac that deserved a first-round pick walked out the door about four years ago, before his last year with the Magic.  For years, we’ve said that McGrady was a first-round value, but that his back problems made him a second-round pick.  Now, we need to re-evaluate that claim.  More concerning to me than his back problems - which were expected, but we’ll still talk about them in a minute - is his standing on the Average Player Rater.  Right now he stands at 50 even, below guys like Luol Deng and Josh Howard, and just ahead of JR Smith and Luke Ridnour.  That is just not the T-Mac that we know.

The evidence suggests that McGrady, even when healthy, is no longer a first round talent.  Now, I’m not about to suggest that he’d be 50 overall if healtrhy all year.  You’d have to figure he’d revert to form at least somewhat, maybe in steals and FT%, and end up in the late-twenties or early thirties.  But when you add the injury risk, where does he land?

Well, every time his back flares up, you’ve gotta add a few positions more in that injury buffer.  I can’t say this enough - backs don’t get better.  There’s a reason that McGrady has been diagnosed with “chronic” back pain and not just regular old back pain.  It’s because this sort of pain won’t go away.  He’s sort of like Chris Webber of a few years ago - the talent is still there but there’s no reason to expect his to play enough games to make him worthwhile.  And yet, last year Webber came through with 75 games played and was a solid force all year.  So it’s not unheard of - but still very unlikely.

So, here’s the bottom line - If he plays only half the season again this year, I can’t justify drafting him any earlier than the fifth or sixth round next year.  The fact that he’s already been shut down at this point means that unless my team is in dire straits, I’m not going to give much more than 8th round value for him.  That said, If your team is in/near last place, he’s exactly the kind of risk you should be looking for.

Now, let’s go, AI trade!

It’s about the middle of the month again and while we’re waiting for AI to get dealt, let’s check in again on the best of the best.  Last month’s rankings are in parentheses…

1.  Shawn Marion, SF (1) - DM and I had an interesting discussion on this:  Let’s say that Shawn Marion is the number one overall fantasy player again this year - it’s not out of the question, as he’s #2 right now, just below KG.  And let’s say that LeBron finishes outside of the top three - again, not out of the question as right now he’s at 7 overall.  Do you take Marion with the number one pick next year?  Has Lebron maxed out as a just-below-Marion type fantasy player?  I say I’d take Marion #1 next year … DM said no way.  Thoughts?

2. Kevin Garnett, PF (3) - It’s par for the course for KG so far.  The most remarkable thing about KG so far is how little attention he’s been getting.  The youth movement (LeBron, Carmelo, Wade, Chris Paul, etc.) has been soaking up all of the Sportscenter attention, and rightly so, but KG is performing better than all of them so far.  Is it possible he’s under-rated right now?  The assists are still down but he’s also still posting the highest FT% of his career.  Looks like rumors of his demise were unsubtantiated.

3. LeBron James (2) - I don’t think there’s been enough discussion about LeBron this year, either.  His FT% has dropped to “awful” status because of the high amount of times he gets to the line.  He’s 7th on the APR and hasn’t shown any statistical improvement for three straight years.  So much of the reason that he was a consensus number one pick this year was because he’s so young, he can still improve, right?  Well, apparently not.  The LeBron of age 22 is pretty much exactly the same as LeBron of age 20.  This just adds to my theory that LeBron is actually 27 years old.

4. Dirk Nowitzki, PF (5) - What separates Dirk from the rest of these guys is how consistent he’s been.  Even though he’s been shooting less (both overall and especially from the outside), he’s still at seven on the APR.  He’s an absolute lock for a Top-10 finish in the ratings, and that’s more than you can say for most of these other guys.

5. Yao Ming, C (6) - Raise your hand if you thought that with T-Mac back in the lineup and a newly healthy group around him, Yao would see his usage rate go UP by over 10 percent.  That’s a trick question, both because I can’t see you and because if you put your hand up you’re a total liar.  Yao is absolutely dominant right now, and there’s no reason to think this will stop anytime soon.

6. Gilbert Arenas, PG (4) - Gilbert falls two spots not because of anything he did, but more because he’s such a polarizing presence on a fantasy team.  Look at the player rater (which, by the way, is getting WAY too much attention in this column).  Almost every player there as at least a couple of categories where they’re just average.  Maybe a little in the plus, maybe a little in the minus, but for the most part within 1 point of the mean.  For Gilbert, he’s only got one of these, his FT%.  Everything else he’s either a monster or a disaster.  Imagine what affect someone like that has on a team, especially if you trade for him and your team isn’t set for someone like that!  Yikes.

7. Dwyane Wade, G (9) - I’m still nervous about the fatigue and the wear and tear, but you can’t argue with the numbers.  He’s stopped worrying about the threes and now he’s getting back to his typically high FG% self.  The steals are coming back as well, and he’s the Heat’s only chance of winning so he’s going to continue to be the man down there and for your team.

8. Kobe Bryant, SG (8) - Mamba is just waiting.  He showed flashes with that 52-point effort two weeks ago and he’s starting to find his range again, taking more threes as he works his way back into the flow.  If there’s a guy who’s going to go bonkers for a 15-game stretch in February and March, that guy is right here.  If you can buy low on him because of injury concerns, I’d do it.

9. Allen Iverson, G (14) - If you think that I spent way too much of the past few days figuring out crazy Iverson trades, you’re absolutely correct.  AI can probably be had for as low a price as you’ll ever be able to get him for right now, but odds are he’ll be the same player no matter where he lands.

10. Steve Nash, PG (10) - I said last month that Nash would be at 10 all year long, and while theoretically I could/should place him one or two spots higher, I’m going to keep him at 10 until something drastic happens.

11. Vince Carter, GF (7) - Is it too early to nominate Carter as the biggest bust of 2007-2008?  His FG% will eventually come back down to earth but Air Jersey will continue his career year for the forseeable future.

12. Elton Brand, PF (12) - This is getting frustrating - his 10/3 game against the Spurs will keep us Brand owners on our toes for another few weeks, just when we thought he was finally back to his old self.

13. Joe Johnson, G (15) - Johnson hadn’t missed a game in like 5 years until this calf thing started up, and let’s hope he starts another 5-year streak this week.  Everything else has been dandy for Johnson owners like myself.

14. Carmelo Anthony, F (N/A) - For a long time, DM had likened Carmelo Anthony to Glenn Robinson, but I think we can finally start giving Melo his due.  The biggest surprise? His 4.1 apg, part of the reason he’s no longer considered a one-trick pony.

15. Michael Redd, GF (14) - I know this is my question every time with Redd, but do you think he can be drafted in the second round next year?  I still think his FG% and points will eventually fade back to his typical numbers, but he’ll still be right around 20 overall by the end of the year.

16. Rashard Lewis, F (N/A) - I’m a Lewis owner but I”m hesitant to put him any higher than this despite his hot start.  The longer Ray Allen is out, though, the better Lewis’s season looks.

17. Jason Kidd, PG (18) - Remeber when it was thought that Marcus Williams would cut into Kidd’s PT?  So much for that idea - Kidd is seeing about half a minute MORE this year than last.  But can his knees handle this sort of run?

18. Baron Davis, PG (N/A) - sell high sell high sell high sell high sell high sell high sell high sell high …

19. Chauncey Billups, PG (N/A) - I’m a little skeptical that Billups will keep up his FG% up, or his steals.  Still, that should be offset by a slight rebound in FT% and threes.  This looks about right for Billups and he’ll be bouncing on and off of this list depending more on other player’s performance than his own, really.

20.  Ray Allen?  nope.  Chris Paul?  maybe.  Tim Duncan?  He’s been solid lately … Jermaine O’Neal?  nope.  I’m going to leave this one open to you guys.  Who belongs at 20?

Fantasy basketball season has kicked into high gear. We’ve got a blockbuster trade likely in our near future, the injuries are really starting to pile up, which means waiver wires are likely on fire as people race for the hot new pickups, and trades start to be proposed as teams look to fill their holes. But today let’s take a look at two perennial teases who are finally showing signs of living up to their potential.

We’ll start with the big man in New York, Eddy Curry. I had predicted he would make an appearance on half the rosters in my league, and when he was on his third by the end of the first month, I thought maybe I undershot my estimate. Then something strange happened – Curry became Shaquille O’Neal. Scoring has never really been a problem for Curry, as he averages 20+ points per 40 minutes in his career. It’s everything else that has given him trouble – rebounding, blocking shots, hitting free throws, staying out of foul trouble, acting like he gives a damn, etc. So has Curry finally turned a corner or is this yet another flash in the pan?

First, even though Curry has been around forever, it’s worth remember that he just turned 24 years old last week. So his recent play obviously shouldn’t be looked at the same as, say, Erick Dampier having a two-week stretch of the same. It’s still possible that Curry is a different player than he’s proven to be so far. And perhaps the skill that has most improved isn’t any aspect of his actual game, but just his ability to stay on the court. Or rather, his coach simply letting him stay on the court. In Curry’s nine-game span in which he’s scored at least 20 in every game, it’s not like his foul problems have disappeared. He’s been disqualified from one contest and has picked up at least four fouls in five of those other eight. But Isiah keeps him on the floor, for a variety of reasons. He doesn’t have many other options, for one. Channing Frye is out, Kelvin Cato is out, Jerome James is Jerome James, so Curry is the only real option in the middle. Just as importantly, he’s playing too well to take out of the lineup. One of my biggest pet peeves in watching games is the way coaches treat players with fouls. Get two fouls in the first quarter and out you come. Get a third foul in the second quarter, out you come. This can often prevent players from really getting into a groove, and it seems silly to “save” a player for later in the game. In the Wizards/Rockets game on Saturday night, I was delighted when Chuck Hayes fouled out with about 4 minutes left in the third quarter. It was refreshing, almost. Jeff Van Gundy kept him out there and when he couldn’t use him anymore, he moved on.

Anyway, the minutes are huge, and some credit should be given to Curry, who has never been known for being in the best shape. His 32.5 mpg is a career high and he’s up to 38 mpg over his last five, including three games of 40+. It’s all about the minutes, as always. More minutes make all those other numbers look better. The rebounds are the real reason for encouragement with Curry, but his rebound rate this year is almost exactly the same as his rate from last year. He’s obviously been much better recently and that’s mostly due to seriously crashing the offensive glass. He didn’t have more than 3 offensive boards in any game in November, and hasn’t had less than 3 in the five December games, including 7 in one and 6 in another. Offensive rebounds by centers are a fantasy players best friend, because it often leads to an easy field goal and maybe even a free throw. Getting an offensive rebound often requires less work then getting a defensive board – you see Zydrunas Ilgauskas just get his fingertips on the ball, that’s a board right there – so it’s a great way for a lazy player like Curry to help his numbers. Curry doesn’t seem as lazy out there, but he still seems like he could really care less about what’s going on. I’m not a big believer in showing emotion translating into actual effort, but Curry seems to just coast, no matter if he’s hitting 17-of-24 or turning it over all the time.

Free throws remain a very weak spot with Curry, the one aspect of the game he’s regressed in this year. Hitting a little more than half of a dozen free throws per game is going to inflict some serious damage, but he’s a career 65% shooter, so there’s reason to believe he’ll at least be mediocre. And even though he racked up 5 blocks over the past two games, don’t even think about calling that a trend. He’s still the same guy who managed two blocks in 191 minutes in the five games before that. If those 10 extra minutes per game stick, Curry should be able to average a block per game, but he is simply not a shot blocker.

So that’s all well and good, but the big question is obviously – will he keep it up? More than us jaded folks might expect, I’d say. Curry is clearly the Knicks biggest weapon on offense, and as long as Isiah’s on the bench the gameplan will be to feed Curry and feed him often. (Insert your own joke.) In the middle of November there was a five-game span in which he never reached double digit shot attempts. Since then he’s topped 10 attempts in 11 straight games. Curry’s like just about everyone else on the Knicks in that once he gets the ball, he doesn’t like to let it go. He’s going to shoot it or he’s going to turn it over. (Yes, for those of you in turnover leagues, that’s just as big a problem as his free throws. Check that 74/15 turnover/assist ration. Wow.) He does need someone to feed him the ball, though, and if Stephon Marbury – the one player who seems to have given up on his own shot – is out for a while and the starting backcourt is Jamal Crawford and Nate Robinson, that might be a problem. Still, Curry has earned the benefit of the doubt to be held onto through his next slump, which is probably going to happen this month. If you have Curry right now you likely got him for free, just ride out the hot streak. Don’t expect him to all of a sudden become a well-rounded player. The reason he can never be a legitimate #1 center is because he’s at best a three category player, if he gets those boards up, but hurts just as much at the line. Still, a few more games and I’ll be ready to label Curry – gasp – a reliable #2 center.

But here’s someone I like more. Over in Boston, Al Jefferson had his breakout game on Saturday night, going for 29 and 14 in his third start as the Celtics center. Jefferson’s rap sheet reads almost as a carbon copy of Curry’s – too many fouls, too many missed free throws, too many injuries. He’s already missed time this year, but at least it was a freak thing (appendectomy) and not a recurrence of his ankle problems. I’ve always been down on Jefferson because his perceived value was always higher than his actual value. But when he went down earlier this year I said he would definitely be someone to stash because he would have value at some point this year. I didn’t expect it to be so soon, but that time is certainly now. Jefferson, like Curry, has shown that he knows how to get the ball in the basket. He’s not as high a percentage shooter as Curry, but he’s never shown any reason to expect less than 50% shooting. Unlike Curry, Jefferson has always been a monster on the boards. In his three starts he’s averaged 11 per game in just 31.7 minutes. He’s also a consistent, if not dominant, shot blocker. He’s swatted at least one, but no more than two, in each of the last seven contests.

The lack of competition for PT is another reason I’m bullish on Jefferson. Kendrick Perkins, Michael Olowokandi and Theo Ratliff aren’t going to be heard from for a while. There is really no reason why Jefferson shouldn’t see at least 33-35 mpg over the next month. He’s a player who is a borderline option with 25 minutes, so give him 10 more that’s obviously good news. Also, Jefferson has a real chance to assert himself as the Celtics #2 option on offense. That’s Wally Szczerbiak’s role right now, but sort of by default. The Celtics would certainly love for Jefferson to establish himself, and Saturday night’s game was a great example of what could be. The C’s came back from a huge deficit on the road, and it was Paul Pierce who hit the buzzer-beater, but it was Jefferson who carried them most of the night. Pierce hit just 4-of-18, but Jefferson nailed 12-of-19. The Celtics have lots of parts and it’s well-documented that Doc Rivers doesn’t always know how to put them together in the best way, but he doesn’t have much choice but to have Jefferson out there right now. Strong play over the next few weeks should make him a fixture in the starting lineup for the rest of the season. Perkins did nothing to put a hold on the starting center spot and it’s not like he’s actually that much bigger than Jefferson. Even if Perkins gets his job back, Ryan Gomes is more of a SF and could be better served coming off the bench. Jefferson is almost as strong a scorer as Curry, and his secondary skills make him much more of a reliable fantasy option. In his lackluster 7-point outing on Friday, he still managed to grab 7 boards, nab a steal and block a shot in 22 minutes. He’s going to be very good, and once he gets that center eligibility, he’ll be a real asset.

Sorry about the delay fellas.  I’ve been terribly busy at work and am trying to wrap up semester classes.  All but seven NBA teams, and me, have their calendars full this coming week. 

Four games: Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Golden State, Houston, Indiana, LA Clippers, LA Lakers, Memphis, Miami, Milwaukee, New Jersey, New York, Orlando, Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Antonio, Seattle, Toronto, Utah.

Three Games: Charlotte, Detroit, New Orleans, Portland, Sacramento, Washington.

Two Games: Minnesota.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:
Al Jefferson, PF:  The “community center” in Boston has turned into an “army of one” virtually overnight.  Struggling starter, Kendrick Perkins, has been shut down for the next few weeks with plantar fasciaitis, while Ratliff and Olowokandi have missed significant time with their own ailments and suckiness.  You may remember I wouldn’t shut up about Big Al last year and was thoroughly disappointed, but now he seems to be in an ideal situation (again) to finally breakout with some consistent minutes.  He can put the ball in the hoop, hit the glass, block some shots, and he is absolutely dominant in the personal fouls category.  He’ll be starting at center and should earn eligibility within a couple weeks. Yay!

Stephen Jackson, G/F:  The gangsta has posted 51 points on 19-for-33 shooting and dished 11 assists in his last two games.  Apparently he’s pissed off about his recently mandated court date next month and is taking it out on the basketball court.  He’s been a borderline fantasy starter this year, but with his current hot streak and four games next week, you should take advantage and get him in your lineup.

Luther Head, G: The second-year guard hasn’t started a single game this season, yet he’s still seventh in the league with 44 three-pointers made.  That alone makes Luther worth a roster spot, and if T-Mac or Alston were to go down, you’d see a spike in his overall numbers.  If you’re trying to compete from behind the arc this week, be sure to get Head in the game.

Kyle Korver, SF: Allen Iverson was recently sent home by the Sixers and now waits to hear where he’ll be traded.  In the meantime, Korver may be waking from his hibernation from fantasy relevance.  He scored 20 points tonight and 13 on Wednesday.  He still has ridiculous long range ability as evidenced by his 54% shooting from downtown this year.  Philly will hit the hardwood four times next week, so use Korver while you can.  Also, this may be your last opportunity to get Iguodola at his current going rate before he really takes off.  If you want to to pursue Iggy, you should make an offer to his owner ASAP.

Mike James, PG:  As expected, we have seen the journeyman’s numbers take a hit across the board this year, but MJ is off to a hot start in December.  His minutes fluctuated quite a bit in November, but he’s averaging 34 mpg so far this month.  James has also found his shooting stroke, hitting 10 treys in his last four games, and scoring a season-high 28 points tonight.  If he were playing more than twice this week, I’d say plug him in. Unfortunately, you may need to look elswhere if you can.

Fantasy basketball is all about the numbers, but that doesn’t mean you can just look at the box scores and know what’s going on. You really do need to watch the games so you can see who’s playing well, who plays well together, what each team does well, etc. That said, even with the NBA package, you can’t watch every game. It’s obvious that I watch every Wizards game, but when the Wiz aren’t on, who do I watch? Well, it shouldn’t be too surprising that I end up watching lots of games featuring my top players. I mean, it’s always nice to have a rooting interest, right? So since I watch my players a lot – and since I have a lot of the more interesting players from the season’s first month on my team – I thought I’d give some scouting reports so you can know these players beyond just their numbers. You guys can play along, too. Most everyone out there has to have a hometown team that they watch all the time, or they watch their own players all the time. So chime and give us the good stuff. I’ll probably report on some other players in the near future.

Kevin Martin
Martin has cooled down lately, but this was to be expected. I mentioned in the comments the other day how I saw him as a Richard Hamilton-type with more 3s and I’m sticking to it. A lot of people focus on his weird release for his shot, and it’s true, it is weird (like lots of players on my team, it would seem), but that’s just how it is. It’s what works, don’t let it affect your judgment of him. If he slows down, it’s not because he has a weird looking shot. Martin’s a scorer; he’s not going to rack up many boards or assists, those will come based on how many minutes he plays. But he can definitely score. He’s got a really quick first step and draws lots of fouls this way, which helps explain how he gets to the line so often. His favorite move this year is driving into the lane and then taking a one-footed fadeaway jumper that he often gets fouled on, and he’s fairly accurate with it. He can also nail the open 3. He moves well without the ball and here’s where Brad Miller’s return is going to help him. Miller is the team’s best passer and he’s been finding Martin on backdoors a few times a game. Martin needs these easy buckets to help keep his FG% at a high level, as even though he’s a good shooter, pure jump shooters just don’t shoot 50% on the season.

On defense he commits reaching fouls too often and gets manhandled when he has to guard bigger players. He’s been avoiding foul trouble for the most part, though. He acts as a rover on defense a lot, coming on help and sometimes this is how he gets his steals. One interesting thing I’ve noticed is that Mike Bibby almost never passes the ball to Martin. The assist numbers don’t really bear it out, as at 6 per game Bibby’s right where normally is, even a bit higher, but he’s chucking it a lot more this year it seems. Or maybe I’m just noticing because he’s not passing to my boy Kevin Martin. In any case, Bibby has looked very bad early on, not that this is much of a revelation. It’s not just that he’s taking lots of shots, but fade away jumpers from the corner with 16 seconds on the shot clock. No wonder he’s a long way from 40%. My final verdict on Martin is that he should be a viable mid-round-value fantasy option all year, but he needs help from his teammates to get involved, and sometimes guys like Bibby and Ron Artest aren’t the best helpers. Also, John Salmons seems to have won over Eric Musselman, Francisco Garcia gets minutes and Ronnie Price is starting to assert himself, so minutes might start being at a premium. He’s been over 40 minutes in two of his last four, but under 32 in the four others. I drafted Martin in the 8^th round and while it was definitely great value, I’m pretty sure he’ll end the year being merely a very good value.

Zach Randolph
Remember my rationale when picking Randolph in the 7^th round? It was basically that the Blazers had nobody with any history of being a serious scorer in the league and that Randolph would have no choice but to score. And that’s exactly what’s happened, and there’s really nobody in the league better suited for the role. Carmelo Anthony is the only other player that has as single-minded a mission to put the ball in the basket every time he touches the ball. Randolph’s a bulldog on that lower block, and he can work his way to the basket better than just about anyone. Sometimes he gets enamored with his jumpshot and sometimes he gets too hung up on taking his defender to the basket, and this is when he’ll throw up those 10-for-25s. But he never loses his confidence, that’s for sure. He passes out of double teams, but those rarely lead to assists. He’s like the ultimate ESPN bottom line player. You see that 31 and 13, but then you see it came on 11-of-26 shooting with 1 assist, no steals and no blocks and it’s not nearly as good. But this is no surprise with Randolph. He has absolutely no interest in playing tough defense, and all of his steals are by accident.

Should we be worried about his knee issues that arose for the first time the other night? Sure, but don’t freak out about it. He might experience some discomfort and miss a game or two, but Randolph is without a doubt a legit 20/10 guy when he plays. I was hoping he might hit a few more 3s this year, but that doesn’t seem to be the case, but that’s actually a good thing. I was thinking he might because he wouldn’t be able to bang down low as much, but he’s as strong as ever down there. It would be nice of some of his kickouts turned into assists and if he didn’t force quite as many shots. The 20/10 with 80+% from the line on tons of attempts are great, but he needs to keep that FG% in the 46-48 range to maintain top 50 value.

Tayshaun Prince
I was excited to get Prince in the 9^th round this year, and his early results have quite nice. And it’s all due to one thing, and that’s 3s. Prince attempted between 1.7 and 2.2 3pg in the past three seasons, but is up to 3.3 attempts per game this year. He’s hitting at a ridiculous rate – 47% – which is sure to come down, but as an owner, I just hope he keeps launching. It looks like it’s becoming a more permanent aspect of his game, as he’s taken at least 4 attempts in 5 of the last 6 games. He needs the 3s, though, because his defensive game is seriously lacking, at least for fantasy purposes. Prince is still a very solid defender, but he hasn’t been going for steals at all, with just 5 total on the season. That’s piss poor. It will improve because it’s simply hard to play 36 mpg and get that few steals, but my hopes of Prince being a 1/1/1 guy seem very unlikely to be fulfilled.

But the career high in points is going to stick. Prince is 26 and is in the perfect “career year” territory. The absence of Ben Wallace didn’t leave many extra points, but it left plenty of extra boards and Prince is picking up the slack there, not afraid to get under the basket, as evidence by his 6 rpg. He’s definitely a bigger part of the offense and everyone knows to look for him in the corner when he has an open 3, and he’s certainly not shy about taking it. Perhaps it wasn’t exactly what people who drafted Prince were expecting, but we’ll definitely take it.

Here’s a dirty little secret - prior to the start of the season, I really thought the Bobcats had a great chance of making the playoffs in the east. I thought that Emeka Okafor would be a major force in the middle, that Adam Morrison would be a big-time contributor on an offense that typically sputtered last year, and I thought that Sean May would be a solid bench player and give them some real muscle night in and night out.

All three of those things have happened, yet the Bobcats are a miserable 5-12 and dead last in the Eastern Conference!  We all know where a lot of the blame is going to go, and we’ll get to Gerald Wallace in a bit.  But in a more macro-sense, what’s going on here?  If I’m Michael Jordan, I’ve got to be thinking about how effective Bernie Bickerstaff really is here.  Sure he’s got a young team, but he’s got a lot of players with great tools and he should be winning more than he is.  That said, imagine Greg Oden and Vince Carter on this team 12 months from now.  Is that a title condender or what? A starting five of Knight/Felton/Carter/Okafor/Oden, with Morrison, May, and Gerald Wallace coming off the bench?  Good lord, that team would win the East by a mile.

But this is still 2006, and with no Vinsanity or Odenanity, we’ll have to settle for reality:

Emeka Okafor: Full disclosure - I’m an Okafor owner.  That said, I amtotally sold on him as a solid C1 over the rest of the year.  He’s no longer the only option on offense as Morrison, Felton and even Sean May are all contributing plenty, whereas while Okafor was healthy last year he was pretty much all there was on offense for the Cats.  So I think his FG% will continue to hang close to 50%, though it may drop a bit.  His blocks will also probably come down but he can certainly be a 2.5 bpg kinda guy.  His FT%, meanwhile, should end up somewhere in the low-mid 60’s, as there’s no reason to think he’ll continue to shoot as bad as he has over the first month.  There are probably a few Okafor owners who will be itching to sell on Okafor and if I could get him for a late third-round value I’d probably do it.  VERDICT: BUY.

Gerald Wallace:  Well this has certainly been a major dissapointment, huh? We predicted a fall to Earth for crash here at FBB but even we didn’t see this coming.  Despite seeing his usual minutes, his number are down significantly across the board.  He’s settling for more jumpers, as evidenced by his poor FG%, and his blocks - once his major strength - have just fallen completely off the board.  People are attributing this to his having to play more on the wing now, but he played on the wing 2 years ago and had 1.3 blocks, so I’m not buying that theory.  I think the real problem for Wallace is that he’s a little freaked out from his concussion and might be holding back a bit rather that going full-speed all the time.  I mean, injuries are nothing new to this guy, and maybe he’s decided that playing a little slower and staying healthy is the best way to go.  Who knows if he’ll ever get it back, but for now if I could get a solid starter for Wallace,
I’d probably do it.  VERDICT: SELL.

Raymond Felton: Again, full disclosure - I’m a Felton owner as well.  So if you want to call me a homer for putting “buy” verdicts on the two guys that I’ve got on my squad, so be it; but first hear me out.  Felton has a couple of things going in his favor right now.  First, he’s slightly underperforming.  His per-minute averages are down across the board, and that’s not even accounting for the fact that he steadily improved all of last year.  Second, even with his struggles, he’s still seeing 35 mpg.  Third, if there’s one guy who screams “trade bait at the deadline,” it’s Brevin Knight, meaning more minutes at the 1 for Felton.  Finally, his back problems mean tha a lot of owners will want to cut bait but I’m holding out hope (for no real justified reason) that he’ll be OK.  Felton can likely be had at a slight discount (say, 6th round value) and I think I would buy at that price.

Adam Morrison: To paraphrase Dennis Green, he is what we thought he would be!  Meaning, an asset in points and threes and little else.  Two things that Morrison has going for him:  One, he is bound to improve from the stripe.  There’s nothing different about that shot in the pros and he shot north of 75% each of the last 2 years of school.  He’ll improve from his 67% clip over the course of the year.  Two, he’s already putting up nice numbers and his career isn’t even 20 games old!  He’s got plenty of room to improve, particularly from a FG% standpoint, and I’d expect Morrison to be in the top 75 on the player rater come the end of the year.  If you drafted him, congratulations.  VERDICT: HOLD.

Brevin Knight:  Call it a hunch, but when a 31 year old guy starts playing career-best ball, it usually doesn’t last.  Knight is always (and rightly so) considered an under-rated fantasy asset, because it’s easy to look past his incredible steals and assists numbers and see a guy who doesn’t score much and posts goose eggs from three point land.  He is typically thought of as a decent PG3 where really he’s a PG2.  Now, people may be considering hima poor PG1 when really he’s still that same PG2, he’s just off to a hot start.  Between his age, his sure-to-come-down percentages and the likelyhood that he’ll be dealt and see a cut in minutes, now is a great time to sell on Brevin.  VERDICT: SELL.

Sean May: Other than Okafor, May has been the most beneficial player of the year for the Cats, according to 82games.com, and if Gerald Wallace continues to struggle and/or gets hurt, May would be in line for a nice uptick in minutes.  He’s been playing great ball all year and at 30 mpg would have value as a Utility guy.  He’s a fine guy to stash on your bench if you’ve got an extra spot.  VERDICT: BUY.

Primoz Brezec: If “looking like you’re about to collapse even though you just came in to the game” was a fantasy stat, Brezec would be a mid-round value.  Unfortunately, the reality is that there are other guys that are simply contributing more for Charlotte than Primoz.  He had one game where he saw 35 minutes but other than that he’s struggled to really get on the court, and until that changes you can probably leave him on your waiver wire.  VERDICT: HOLD.

As we’ve been discussing pretty often this season, it’s been pretty slim pickings at the center position.  And while we’ve certainly seen the emergence of one or two guys, the reality is that things are only getting murkier in the middle.  The concept of shared minutes in the middle is not a new concept, but it’s also becoming more and more of an issue for those of us looking desperately for decent third C.  Let’s take a look at some of these “community center” situations, as well as one or two that are changing.

Portland

The Community Center in Portland is officially open for business.  Sunday night against Atlanta, the Blazers first went with Joel Przybilla, then tired of him after 8 minutes, turned to LaMarcus Aldridge, and eventually spelled him with Jamaal Magloire.  All three of them have seen minutes go up and down since Przybilla’s return, and if you think that’s bad, Raef Lafrentz is threatening to return to the lineup soon as well.  If you have to pick one of these guys to own it would probably be Aldridge but that’s only in VERY deep leagues and for VERY patient owners.  All of them are marginal starters if they get a guaranteed 25 mpg, and right now that’s very far from the case.

LA Lakers

You know, I thought that once Kwame Brown moved 3,000 miles away from me, he was done ruining my life.  Wrong again!  As if being a constant disappointment while playing for my Wizards wasn’t enough, now he’s busy sabotaging my late-round draft pick Andrew Bynum.  Which isn’t to say that Bynum wasn’t on thin ice as it was.  Bynum lost his starting gig to Brown but even before that he’d been struggling.  His last four games as a starter produced 5.3/4.5 with 1.5 blocks and shoddy FG%.  Both Brown and Bynum need at least 30 mpg if they’re going to have any fantasy value and if they’re both healthy that’s just not going to happen.  This is a situation to avoid until further notice.

New York

It’s been awhile since we’ve had something to say about New York, so why not take advantage when we have the chance?  Ever since Channing Frye went down with a sprained ankle, Eddy Curry has really stepped up his game.  If you’re looking for blocks, obviously you’re looking in the wrong place, but I think Curry gets shorted because of that.  The fact is that he’s put up 20+ points seven games running, and chipped in over 7 boards and a FG% well north of fifty.  Prior to this streak, Eddy had landed on quite a few waiver wires but that’s just silly.  Even when he’s not this hot, he belongs on a roster because he’ll have these streaks.  The community center will open back up once Frye returns, but Curry should remain on rosters once that happens and could even be startable.

Memphis

Here is an actual e-mail that I sent to DM a few days ago:

To: DM
Subj: lord help me
I just spent a legitimate 3 minutes considering picking up Stromile Swift.

Here’s his response:

To: BV
Subj: re: lord help me
oh yeah, i do that every day. in fact, i think i might do it soon.

Let’s remind ourselves about Stromile Swift for a minute, shall we?  For one, he’s been a disappointment every single stop along the way.  For two, if he’s not on the “Eddie Griffin Memorial Never on my Team Again” list, he absolutely should be.  He’s a shining example of a guy who is quite simply far more trouble than he’s worth.  If Swift for some reason goes on a hot streak, and you own him, trade him for anything you can get your hands on, because he’ll have no value once Pau Gasol returns.

We haven’t been paying as much attention to point guards around here as we once did, but that’s because we figure you know the drill by now. They are good to have around, and if someone’s starting he’s quite likely worth adding. Sometimes tomorrow’s starters are today’s backups, so it’s good to know what they offer so you can tell if they will indeed be worthwhile should the get the opportunity. Today we’ll take a look at three of the more exciting backups, foreign imports each of them.

Sergio Rodriguez
Here’s your league leader in assists per minute, beating out even Steve Nash and showing his stuff by racking up 11 of ‘em in just 25 minutes last night. He’s played at least 20 minutes three times and he’s averaging 9.7 apg in those games. His PT has been incredibly inconsistent, but he’s now had at least 18 minutes in three of four games, his best stretch yet. He’s doing more to hurt Jarrett Jack’s value than to have any of his own, but he seems to have made Dan Dickau irrelevant and has positioned himself as Jack’s fill-in should he get hurt. Like the other Euro PGs listed below, he hasn’t shown much interest in shooting from the outside. He also has just four steals on the season and hasn’t made it to the line even once.

But those assist numbers can’t ignored. Portland had a nice little start but the Blazers are now sitting at 6-12 and you can expect things to be in a state of flux for most of the season. I don’t expect Jarrett Jack to lose his job, but it’s not completely out of the realm of possibilities that Rodriguez join him in the starting lineup at some point. Nate McMillian started some combination of Jack, Steve Blake and Sebastian Telfair in the backcourt on a few occasions last season, so we know he’s not completely averse to putting two PGs in the starting backcourt. Brandon Roy’s return – if that ever comes – would certainly make that plan less likely, but as Roy’s injury seems like one that’s likely to bother him again at some point during the season. Think of Rodriguez of the Reggie Evans of assists. Or something like that.  

Jose Calderon
The numbers don’t show it because his PT has decreased, but Calderon is playing some fantastic ball this year. T.J. Ford’s also playing damn well, so it’s limited Calderon to just 16.6 mpg after he saw 23+ in his rookie season. But he’s shown a new-found aggressiveness and is proving that he shouldn’t be looked at as just a one-dimensional passer for fantasy purposes. Last year in those 23.2 mpg he averaged 5.5 ppg on 4.9 FGA. This year he’s taking 5.7 shots in those 16.6 minutes, and is hitting 54%, compared to 42% last year. Calderon wasn’t as much of a pure point in Europe as he was last year in Toronto, so perhaps we’re seeing more of the real Jose this season. He’s still not much of an outside threat, but gets enough steals that if he got regular PT he’d be as much an asset there as your average PG.

Ford has proven to be more durable than most people thought since returning from his year off, but that specter of fragility still hangs over him. It’s reasonable to expect Calderon to run wild if Ford were to miss time, especially because Calderon would be counted on to replace his scoring as well. Double his numbers to give him around 33 mpg and you’ve got 15.8/3.0/5.8 with 1.4 steals. Those are numbers just about any team would take. It rarely makes much sense to use the handcuff strategy in fantasy basketball, but Calderon may be one of the few players for whom it makes sense, depending on how many bench spots are available. Calderon had a nine-game starting stint last season, and the numbers were fine, except for the scoring inspiring – 8.4/4.7/7.4 with 1.4 steals in 37.4 minutes. If he gets the chance again, expect him to put the ball in the hoop.

Carlos Arroyo
Arroyo was a popular pickup early in the season when it looked like he might supplant Jameer Nelson as the starter, but now he’s in that tough situation where he’s playing extremely well off the bench – better than Nelson – but the team is winning with the current arrangement, so why make a change? It’s bad news for Nelson, too, who isn’t even averaging 30 mpg in what many suspected would be a breakout campaign, and Keyon Dooling’s presence really isn’t helping matters at all. Arroyo’s shooting 47% this season and he shot 50% in his brief time with the Magic last year after a few years of miserable shooting in Utah and Detroit. But before you get too excited, if you take out Arroyo’s impossibly hot two-game stretch in which he made 18-of-22 shots, he’s shooting just 40% otherwise. The three-point shot is certainly becoming a bigger part of his arsenal, as he’s taken at least 2 in 6 of his last 9 games. Still not a ton, but with backups it’s sometimes hard to get a good feel for numbers like this. It’s true that Arroyo has never been much of a threat from long range, but I think that if a player gets a starting job and is more in the flow of the offense from the beginning of the game, his attempts would go up. Still, no starting spot is imminent and Orlando’s one of those deep teams where players have a tendency to cancel out each other’s value.