Add: Steven Hunter
Drop: Earl Watson
Hunter seems to have overtaken Joe Smith for the starting PF spot in Philadelphia, but I still don’t see too many more games like yesterday’s outing with 10 and 15 with 3 blocks. Hunter’s always had potential as a blocks and boards guy, and has leaped back toward the top of the league in block rate after suffering a sizeable drop last year. But he’s extremely limited on offense – his 14 FGA yesterday were a career high – and will struggle to reach double digit points on a regular basis, meaning both the boards and blocks have to be there every night for him to be worth it. The fact that he likely qualifies at center does make him a bit more attractive, but Smith will still get his minutes and Hunter isn’t likely a long-term answer. Watson’s shooting has just been too brutal to handle and Luke Ridnour looks to be working his way back into the swing of things. Watson’s minutes have gone 39-28-26 in the past three, and while only Steve Nash has been better at dropping dimes over the past two weeks, Watson’s 29% shooting in January is just crippling. He might have another flourish left in him, and if he could just stay around his career mark of 41%, those 3s and assists would give him some value, but right now he’s too cold to mess with.
Add: Jerry Stackhouse
Drop: Ike Diogu
An overreaction to one fantastic, nationally televised quarter. Stackhouse certainly had it working in the fourth against the Heat yesterday, but he still hasn’t topped 24 minutes in his nine games back from injury and simply isn’t worth using unless he’s starting. In eight games as a starter earlier this year Stack averaged 15.3/3.1/3.3 with 1.5 steals and 1 3, showing that he might still be relevant as a utility guy in deep leagues if the minutes are there. But as long as Josh Howard stays healthy, Stackhouse will be relegated to a bench role and isn’t worthy of fantasy consideration. Diogu’s obviously nowhere near having value with the Pacers and isn’t even worth stashing, but Stack isn’t much of an upgrade.
Add: Willie Green
Drop: Desmond Mason
Not that there was ever any real question, but I think we can now definitely say that Desmond Mason just isn’t a fantasy factor. He was the de facto #1 option for NOK over the past month or so and just hasn’t impressed. He’s at #156 on the 30 day rater, and now that David West and Bobby Jackson are back, it will only get worse. Green is a similar player. Right now he’s getting as many minutes as he can handle and he’s still not helping many fantasy teams. He’s started the past six contests, averaging a healthy 37.3 mpg. But his numbers leave a lot to be desired – 18.5/2.2/2.5 with 1.3 3s and 46% shooting that’s a bit misleading. Take out his 13-for-19 game and he’s sitting at 41%, which is above his career average. He’s a FG% killer who doesn’t do enough in the other categories to offset the damage there. The points and minutes make him seem enticing, but it’s a trap.
Add: Ryan Gomes
Drop: Matt Barnes
Remember how a few days ago I said I wasn’t going to have an especially short leash with Barnes? I guess I lied. He gave me a fine final performance with 12/7/5 with a pair of steals and 3s in 33 minutes (with help from an extra session), but there are just too many people competing for minutes in Golden State. Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington played 48 and 37 minutes respectively in their first games, and Baron Davis wasn’t even accounted for. It’s possible that Barnes continues to see enough time and will hit enough 3s to give him some value, but Gomes is simply playing too many minutes right now for me to leave him out on the free agent list. He’s played at least 45 minutes in the past four contests and is averaging 19.3 and 7.8 on 48/89 shooting. He simply won’t get you any 3s, steals or blocks, but I can gain some ground with just a small boost in boards and FG%, so Gomes fits my needs right now.
Add: Rudy Gay
Drop: Devin Brown
This was an astute pickup, right before the Grizzlies tipped off on Saturday. Gay was in the starting lineup that game and put up a well-rounded line of 17/5/3 with 2 3s, a block and a steal. Those are the kinds of numbers that Gay is capable of putting up most nights, but consistency has eluded him through the first half season of his career. That’s to be expected, though, and it will probably happen again. Gay’s last breakout game was the last time he was inserted into the starting lineup and it was followed with a 5/4/2 clunker and four games later he was back on the bench. The Eddie Jones situation might hold the key to whether Gay will be worth using going forward or not. If the veteran remains out of the picture, either due to injury or a buyout, Gay may get the extended chance to prove himself. But if Jones is back in the picture Gay might find consistent minutes hard to come by. He’s averaging just about a steal and block per game and a best case scenario might see him putting up Danny Granger-esque numbers. Brown is yet another Hornet who had marginal value to begin with who is now rendered fantasy irrelevant with the return of West and Jackson.
Add: Channing Frye
Drop: LaMarcus Aldridge
This was a move I made, and it’s not one I’m particularly thrilled with. I keep waiting for Aldridge to get his chance, but as long as Joel Przybilla, Jamaal Magloire and Raef LaFrentz are all around, 13-minute games like last night will be rather frequent. Andrew Bynum’s currently filling my #2 center spot and his run could be over any day when Kwame Brown gets back, so I decided to pick up Frye since he qualifies at center and is at least starting. Toss out his last game since he somehow managed to foul out in just 10 minutes, but he scored in double digits in four of the previous five. David Lee is around to take some of his minutes, and very deservedly so, giving Frye very little upside, especially considering he doesn’t block many shots. I still like Aldridge down the road this year and will be ready to pounce when the opportunity comes, but Frye is a better, if not all that great, option in the short term.
Add: Charlie Villanueva
Drop: Damon Stoudamire
Stoudamire is worthless, as I was saying last week, so there’s no harm in taking a chance on Villanueva, but I’m skeptical this story has a happy ending in 2007. Word is that Villanueva could be back within a couple of weeks, and with the Bucks missing so much scoring, the opportunity could be there for Charlie to come up big. But it doesn’t sound like there’s actually been any progress with his injury, just that it hasn’t gotten any worse. Villanueva also has to work his way back into Terry Stotts’ rotation, which theoretically shouldn’t be too tough, but he was pretty buried by the time he went on the shelf for the second time. And he’ll also have to fight for shots with Charlie Bell, Earl Boykins and Ruben Patterson, none of whom are known for their sharing skills. Depending how your roster looks right now Villanueva could be a fine use of a high-upside bench spot, but don’t get your hopes too high.
Add: Darko Milicic
Drop: Kurt Thomas
Darko has been a fairly big disappointment in fantasy circles this season, but is just a lesson that you can’t speculate too much on draft day. Milicic hasn’t been able to knock Tony Battie out of the starting lineup and it’s kept his PT down. Overall, Milicic seems to have regressed this year, mostly due to his 41% shooting, which is just unacceptable for a 7 footer who plays inside. The 1.8 bpg are nice, but he averaged 2.1 per game in slightly less time last year, and he’s averaging nearly 2 turnovers per contest as well. But people are always looking for help in the middle and Darko’s at least consistent with his blocks, although winning teams certainly wouldn’t have him anywhere near a starting lineup right now.
Add: Erick Dampier
Drop: Donyell Marshall
In deep leagues that require two centers, you can do worse than Dampier. You can obviously do a lot better, but the blocks and boards have been somewhat consistent lately. A couple early fouls, though, and you’re looking at a 2-point, 3-rebound night, just know that. Marshall just isn’t ever going to have fantasy value in Cleveland. He put up one of the great, random fantasy seasons in recent memory in 03-04 with Toronto after escaping Chicago, but he did it while receiving 39 mpg. He’s come nowhere close to that number with Cleveland and is down to 18 mpg this season. Mike Brown puts some weird-ass lineups out there. In overtime Saturday night against the Warriors Marshall was on the bench along with Drew Gooden, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Larry Hughes as the Cavs went with a crunch time lineup of Eric Snow, Sasha Pavlovic, Anderson Varejao and David Wesley along with LeBron. Uh, OK. They won the game, so I guess it worked, but still. Marshall can still be of plenty of use to the Cavs, especially come playoff time – the Wizards would have been wise to guard him in their elimination game last May – but it’s time to take him off the fantasy radar.
Add: Stephen Jackson (waiver)
Drop: Joe Smith
Jackson was dropped just a day before he was traded to Golden State and this claim was put in before he suited up for the Warriors. No doubt this owner was patting himself on the back after Jackson’s fantastic debut in which he put up 29/7/5 with 5 steals and 5 3s. Damn that’s a nice line. The five steals match Jackson’s total from the previous 12 games, so don’t get too excited there, but he might be about to go on a 3s binge. Golden State players seem to have their value in streaks and Jackson has set himself up for plenty of minutes over the next few games after his hot start. Don’t be surprised to see him reel off a bunch of games of 40+ minutes this week, which would obviously make him very valuable, although he might do some serious damage to your FG%. Jackson has never shot above 43% from the field in his career, so his owners might not want him taking 25 shots per night. I’ll definitely up his short-term prognosis, but am not convinced it’ll be clear sailing for him a month from now.
Add: Delonte West (waiver)
Drop: Ruben Patterson
West is getting the chance to prove to us that he really is a fantasy contributor. The Celtics are obviously depleted and West was part of the wounded, as he missed four games just shortly after regaining the starting PG spot. The last two games show why West was a solid choice as a waiver claim, though, as he’s averaged 19/4/8.5 with 2 3s and 2 steals in 44 mpg. There was an overtime in there, but the fact remains that he’s starting, the Celtics are depleted and Sebastian Telfair is basically a non-factor. Even with Rajon Rondo seeing decent minutes, West can still be out there all the time. West shot 49% from the field last year, and much of his value was tied in there. He’s down to 41% this season, but that number is up to 46% when he starts, and he’s still an excellent free throw shooter. West is a very solid pickup right now if you can make it happen. Patterson’s certainly worth consideration still, as he is at #89 on the 15 day rater and had another solid outing yesterday with 15 and 5 with a steal and a block on 6-of-12 shooting in 37 minutes. That’s a pretty typical line for Patterson, as he hasn’t topped 17 points in his last six and has only 4 total steals. His FG% remains strong and as long as he keeps free throwing around 70% he’s a decent utility player.
Add: Jason Williams
Drop: Stephen Jackson
Probably wishes he hadn’t given up on Jackson so soon, but J-Will has been fairly productive over the past couple weeks. His clunkers are ugly, but he’s been pretty consistent, as yesterday’s game was the first in nine contests that he didn’t register at least one steal. He looks to have most of his explosiveness back, at least for now, and has suited up for the last pair of back-to-backs. His assist numbers won’t be dominant since Dwyane Wade will take so many, but most teams can use 6 dimes and 1.5 3s and steals per game, which is roughly what Williams has been providing in January. He doesn’t have much upside these days, but is worth playing while he’s relatively hot and healthy.