Roster Management: Talent vs. Need

A lot of the questions that we get in the comments section ask us something along the lines of this:

“I’m really good in this one category, but I’m really bad in another.  I’m thinking of trading Player A for Player B, because even though Player A is better overall, Player B helps in the categories I need help in.  What do you think?”

Almost always, my answer is no for this kind of question.  But there are situations where it’s warranted and when the stars are aligned correctly, this move can really help your squad.  I’ve tried to organize this column into factors or lists but sometimes it’s best to just ramble, so here goes:

Now, we talk a lot around draft time about the “best player available” strategy, and considering trades like these is like having that discussion all over again.  The difference is that now, players value is more solidified, you’ve got standings to look at, and every day that goes by is one less day for you to gain or lose in the standings.  So as the year progresses, it becomes more and more worthwhile to trade down in overall value for a gain in a specific category.
 
Let’s take an example to paint a better picture.  Let’s say you’re really desperate for rebounds, and you’ve got your eye on Tyson Chandler.  In return, the other guy wants, say, Tayshaun Prince.  Now, at the beginning of the year this is a no-brainer.  Prince is way more valuable than Chandler from an overall standpoint value and if the draft were today he’d go first every time.  But come the trading deadline at the beginning of March?  You’ve got to take into account the standings and it may be the case that Chandler is more valuable to your team.

The farther along in the season, the less you have to worry about things like injuries or PT shakeups that can really change a guy’s value and really skew your standings.  At this point, to me at least, there’s still way too much time left in the year to start sacrificing overall value for a category-stuffer.  Think about it this way.  Two weeks ago I was really solidified in my spot in three pointers.  Now that Rashard Lewis is out for two months, I’m in a totally different spot.  Imagine if I had traded away Joe Johnson thinking that I had threes wrapped up?

Still, some of you will want to sacrifice one category for help in another and as I mentioned, the later we get in the season, the better this strategy gets.  So let’s talk about another key in going after this kinda trade - a diversified strength.  Again, let’s use an example.  Just for the heck of it, let’s use my team again, and I’ll point out one category where I’m diversified and one where I’m not.  In blocks, I’m not at all diversified.  Despite being 2nd in my league, I’ve got only two guys who are big-time contributors in blocks, Elton Brand and Emeka Okafor.  Another, Nazr Mohammed, struggles to stay in my lineup, and other than than not a single guy averages over one block a game.  This makes it really difficult to trade away blocks, even though it’s one of my strengths.  If I trade away Brand or Okafor, I’m probably looking at being middle of the pack at best in this category, and should the other get hurt (always a possibility), I’m pretty much screwed. 

Now to contrast, let’s look at another one of my strengths, steals (yeah, it looks like I drafted for defense this year).  In this category I’ve got eight different guys averaging over a steal a game, let by Caron Butler with 1.9.  I’ve got four other guys averaging over 0.7 a game.  In this situation, I can very easily trade a good steals guy while not worrying much about my overall standing in that category, even if I lose another guy to injury.  This is a very diversified category for me and should I choose to deal one of my strengths, it will be in steals, not blocks.

OK, so we’ve discussed trading away a strength.  Let’s close up by talking about which needs you have to target.  Keep in mind that when considering injury risks, you’re not just considering your team, you’re considering every team in the league.  Because another team’s injury can be just as important to you in a category as an injury to your own guy.  So diversified strengths, etc. on the part of other teams is something to keep an eye on.  I think that people get too concerned with specific standings too early in the season because they’re not considering these things.  Remember, we’re not even halfway through the season at this point!  There are still so many things that can happen that can drastically change the shape of your team.  Having the best overall team value is the best way to defend your spot in the standings, and sacrificing that value for the sake of one or two categories at this point, to me, is still WAY too risky.

The key is to stay competitive in every category.  If you’re really so far back in a category that you can’t foresee catching up to anyone unless you do something drastic, then sure, go for this kind of deal, though punting might be a better option.  But as long as you’re competitive, whether it’s at the bottom of the category or at the top, you’re going to want to wait until probably after the All-Star break before considering this kind of deal.

OK, how’s that for a rambling response?  I’m sure we’ll get a bunch of differing opinions, but that’s where I stand.

01
Vernon
January 2nd, 2007 10:24 am

Hey Guys, I love your site. Most of the time, like with this article, you guys just affirm my own strategies that I develop (check out my fantasy profile!). It really amazes me how many managers are always trying to get the “better” player with total disregard to their strengths and weaknesses. A friend of mine and I always play in a large 16-team league with 13 categories and we usually end up 1st or 2nd because we know how to make mutually beneficial trades. I think more people need to read this stuff so that I will stop receiving trade offers that do nothing to help my team.

02
Dave
January 2nd, 2007 11:20 am

Baron Davis has been awesome this year, and everyone agrees that you should trade him while he’s hot. So here’s the question for you, if everyone agrees that he should be traded, what kind of player should you hope to get in return? Provided my team is healthy, I am decent in all categories….with Baron, so I am open to all position players.

03
CBass
January 2nd, 2007 1:33 pm

We start 3 guards in my league, and my top 3 are Billups, J. Johnson, and TJ Ford. My bench consists of B. Knight and J. Jack. With Chauncey out right now and Jack putting up low numbers, could you justify dropping Jack for the immediate (and possible long range) bench help of Tony Allen? Drop Jack for Allen or no? Possibly drop Knight for Allen? Stick it out with FBB favorite Jack?

04
bv
January 2nd, 2007 2:04 pm

Dave,
Baron is a tough sell high because EVERYONE knows he’s a sell high, you can’t pull a fast one on anyone. If you can get 3rd or 4th round value for him then go for it.

CBass, i’d drop knight for allen, jack is just slumping, he’ll be fine in the long run but knight is still out for quite a while. it sounds like, and his starting spot might be gone by the time he gets back.

05
Rook
January 2nd, 2007 3:50 pm

Thought I’d bring up something I’ve asked about before. Many posts ago, you said that while you’re not shopping Kevin Martin, you’d probably move him if offered an established guy like Terry. I’m curious: would you still do that now? I’m starting to think Martin might remain more valuable at the end of the season than Terry. I ask again because even though you offered that up as a hypothetical, it’s now a real possibility for my team. I could definitely use a bump in assists, and Terry would provide a modest but noticeable one.

06
DM
January 2nd, 2007 4:18 pm

I wouldn’t make that exact deal, if only because I traded for Terry halfway through last season and I don’t want to do it again. Also, I’ve grown too attached to Martin, which I specifically said you shouldn’t do. That said, Terry has been the better player over the past month and Martin’s insane FT value can’t get any higher. But Josh Howard’s emergence and Dallas’s depth in general might keep Terry’s value down. Basically this is a good time to use BV’s column today to decide if it’s the right move.

07
rich
January 2nd, 2007 7:04 pm

Any thoughts on Villanueva? Milwaukee has been winning with him coming off the bench, and I’m wondering if he’s a guy I should be looking to trade away or just drop.

08
bv
January 2nd, 2007 7:57 pm

rich, ya gotta hold on to c-vill for at least another few weeks, his ceiling is just too high to drop him at this point.

09
Jeremy
January 3rd, 2007 1:01 am

Alright, so how do you think that Richard Jefferson is going to do for the rest of the year? Someone in my league dropped him and he comes off waivers later today. Here is my current roster:

PG: Andre Miller, Mike Bibby, Deron Wililams
SG: Joe Johnson, Kevin Martin
SF: Josh Howard, LeBron James, Matt Barnes, Paul Pierce, Josh Smith
PF: Chris Wilcox, David West,
C: Chris Kaman, Marcus Camby, Al Jefferson

As you can see, I have a couple of injured players on my team (Pierce, J.Smith, D.West), and I’m wondering if anyone would recommend dropping on of my players for R.Jefferson. The only people that seem reasonable to drop are Wilcox or West. I think West will be very good when he comes back, but Wilcox is center-eligible, and dropping him wold only leave me with Kaman, Camby, Jefferson & D.West to man 2 center spots and a PF spot. Whatcha think? Good move or not. I figure Jefferson’s rebounds will go up since Krstic (who I had) went down.

Thanks for the advice.

10
bv
January 3rd, 2007 7:16 am

jeremy, jefferson may be struggling for sure but he has no business being on the wires. i’d drop west for him and hope no one picks him up so that you can grab him back once he gets healthy.

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