We talk a lot about the guys that fill out the top of your fantasy lineup, and we also talk a lot about the guys that could or should be getting playing time or could see their values change drastically. Today, though, I’d like to talk about some of the unheralded fantasy guys, those middle-of-the-rankings guys who don’t get much press but are really more valuable than we give them credit for. A lot of fantasy leagues are won in the 5th-10th rounds of the draft, but more importantly a lot of drafts are LOST during these rounds because of poor risks. Here are guys who are paying dividends for their owners:
Josh Childress, GF, Atl
Now that he’s back from injury, it’s time to face the facts and give Childress his due. While we talk plenty about Josh Smith and Marvin Williams, the fact is that Childress is a legit fantasy starter who’s improved each year he’s been in the league. It’s tough to take a guy who only scores around 10-12 ppg and doesn’t dominate anywhere, but the facts are that Childress contributes in both defensive categories, chips in an occaional three, and shoots well over 50% from the field. He was on and off of rosters all of last year but when it came down to it, he was 84 on the player rater and those that just plugged him in and played him all year got a fine mid-late round value out of him. I made the bonehead move of picking up and then dropping Childress a week ago when he took an extra day or two coming back from injury and boy am I regretting it now. He’s not as valuable as his current mid-50’s on the APR suggests, but he’s also going to land no lower than the mid-70’s when the season’s over. He should be owned in all leagues and is a starter in most.
Rafer Alston, PG, Hou
Alston gets a bad rap because of his FG% and that’s no joke - 37% ain’t pretty no matter how many shots you’re taking. But once you get past that, Alston is as solid a PG2 as they come. Since he started getting over 30 mpg four seasons ago, he’s always put up at least 1.6 threes, 1.4 steals and 4.5 assists. And as bad as his 37% FG% is, keep in mind that it’s not as damaging as Tim Duncan is from the FT line. Sometimes (in fact, most of the time) the most important number is the average player rater. Here’s how it’s gone for Alston since ‘03: 88, 54, 70, and 69 this year. He’s also only missed one significany chunk of time over that span. For an unreliable a player as he is, Alston is pretty consistent and is probably undervalued in a lot of leagues because of his appalling FG%.
Luke Ridnour, PG, Sea
A lot of folks were down on Ridnour going into the season, and with good reason. He hadn’t shown much improvement from year two to year three, and Earl Watson was threatening to take away his PT. But here were are 2 months into the year, and Ridnour is sitting pretty in the 40’s on the APR. Granted, some of this is due to the fact that Rashard Lewis and Ray Allen have both missed serious time so far, but Ridnour has also improved his shot. After hitting on only 28% of his three’s last year, he’s rebounded to a career high 41% from the arc, which has played a large part in his also career-high of 47% from the field overall. Even if the Sonics all get healthy at the same time again, Ridnour has been the most pleasant story out of Seattle this year and will be a fine PG2 for the forseeable future.
Shane Battier, F, Hou
I hope you’re not tired of hearing about Shane Battier because I want to revisit him here for a minute. I was gushing about Battier all offseason long, saying that he would thrive in Houston, and I said he’d be a 5th round value, all sorts of stuff. So now reality has hit, and he’s still struggling to score 10 ppg and isn’t even grabbing 5 boards. But you know where he is on the total player rater right now? Seriously, don’t look at the next line, and think about where he’d be. Ready? Fifty-five. He’s 71 on the APR, and 67 on Basketball Monster. He’s just so good at all of the little things - his 1.7 threes are obviously huge but don’t overlook his defensive stats - that he ends up being much more valuable than you’d think. Oh, if only the autodraft hadn’t stolen him from me this year!
Andres Nocioni, F, Chi
A lot of Bulls qualify for this column because of their depth, but we’ll go with Nocioni because we’ve gone with three guards and we need a forward here. Nocioni was typically drafted in the later rounds of drafts, around 100 overall or so, and he has really delivered for his owners. He’s at 73 on the APR and has really solidified his position with the Bulls and with his fantasy teams. Going into the year it looked like he and Luol Deng might really hurt each other’s values, but both of them (Deng is at a terrific 53 on the APR) seem to be doing just fine.