Underappreciated

We talk a lot about the guys that fill out the top of your fantasy lineup, and we also talk a lot about the guys that could or should be getting playing time or could see their values change drastically.  Today, though, I’d like to talk about some of the unheralded fantasy guys, those middle-of-the-rankings guys who don’t get much press but are really more valuable than we give them credit for.  A lot of fantasy leagues are won in the 5th-10th rounds of the draft, but more importantly a lot of drafts are LOST during these rounds because of poor risks.  Here are guys who are paying dividends for their owners:

Josh Childress, GF, Atl
Now that he’s back from injury, it’s time to face the facts and give Childress his due.  While we talk plenty about Josh Smith and Marvin Williams, the fact is that Childress is a legit fantasy starter who’s improved each year he’s been in the league.  It’s tough to take a guy who only scores around 10-12 ppg and doesn’t dominate anywhere, but the facts are that Childress contributes in both defensive categories, chips in an occaional three, and shoots well over 50% from the field.  He was on and off of rosters all of last year but when it came down to it, he was 84 on the player rater and those that just plugged him in and played him all year got a fine mid-late round value out of him.  I made the bonehead move of picking up and then dropping Childress a week ago when he took an extra day or two coming back from injury and boy am I regretting it now.  He’s not as valuable as his current mid-50’s on the APR suggests, but he’s also going to land no lower than the mid-70’s when the season’s over.  He should be owned in all leagues and is a starter in most.

Rafer Alston, PG, Hou
Alston gets a bad rap because of his FG% and that’s no joke - 37% ain’t pretty no matter how many shots you’re taking.  But once you get past that, Alston is as solid a PG2 as they come.  Since he started getting over 30 mpg four seasons ago, he’s always put up at least 1.6 threes, 1.4 steals and 4.5 assists.  And as bad as his 37% FG% is, keep in mind that it’s not as damaging as Tim Duncan is from the FT line.  Sometimes (in fact, most of the time) the most important number is the average player rater.  Here’s how it’s gone for Alston since ‘03: 88, 54, 70, and 69 this year.  He’s also only missed one significany chunk of time over that span.  For an unreliable a player as he is, Alston is pretty consistent and is probably undervalued in a lot of leagues because of his appalling FG%.

Luke Ridnour, PG, Sea
A lot of folks were down on Ridnour going into the season, and with good reason.  He hadn’t shown much improvement from year two to year three, and Earl Watson was threatening to take away his PT.  But here were are 2 months into the year, and Ridnour is sitting pretty in the 40’s on the APR.  Granted, some of this is due to the fact that Rashard Lewis and Ray Allen have both missed serious time so far, but Ridnour has also improved his shot.  After hitting on only 28% of his three’s last year, he’s rebounded to a career high 41% from the arc, which has played a large part in his also career-high of 47% from the field overall.  Even if the Sonics all get healthy at the same time again, Ridnour has been the most pleasant story out of Seattle this year and will be a fine PG2 for the forseeable future.

Shane Battier, F, Hou
I hope you’re not tired of hearing about Shane Battier because I want to revisit him here for a minute.  I was gushing about Battier all offseason long, saying that he would thrive in Houston, and I said he’d be a 5th round value, all sorts of stuff.  So now reality has hit, and he’s still struggling to score 10 ppg and isn’t even grabbing 5 boards.  But you know where he is on the total player rater right now?  Seriously, don’t look at the next line, and think about where he’d be.  Ready?  Fifty-five.  He’s 71 on the APR, and 67 on Basketball Monster.  He’s just so good at all of the little things - his 1.7 threes are obviously huge but don’t overlook his defensive stats - that he ends up being much more valuable than you’d think.  Oh, if only the autodraft hadn’t stolen him from me this year!

Andres Nocioni, F, Chi
A lot of Bulls qualify for this column because of their depth, but we’ll go with Nocioni because we’ve gone with three guards and we need a forward here.  Nocioni was typically drafted in the later rounds of drafts, around 100 overall or so, and he has really delivered for his owners.  He’s at 73 on the APR and has really solidified his position with the Bulls and with his fantasy teams.  Going into the year it looked like he and Luol Deng might really hurt each other’s values, but both of them (Deng is at a terrific 53 on the APR) seem to be doing just fine.

01
john
January 3rd, 2007 7:36 am

how does luke walton fit into this category? his ranking (basketballmonster) seems quite high given his performance…

02
bv
January 3rd, 2007 7:41 am

john, walton fits nicely into the category … if he can keep it up. i’m not convinced he’s a 30 mpg guy in the nba just yet, but we’ll know more about a year from now…

03
CBass
January 3rd, 2007 8:40 am

I had too many guards and needed a forward, so I just took a risk on Chris Webber for Jamal Crawford. Given Crawford’s inconsistncy and Webber’s upside, I like the deal. I have Matt Barnes to plug up my forward slot until Webber can get healthy. You lika da trade?

04
January 3rd, 2007 9:20 am

Another plus with this Childress and Battier is their lack of turnovers….currently they’re both at an excellent 1.2…obviously boosting their value a LOT in 9-cat leagues.

In 9-cat leagues Childress is currently ranked #30 and Battier #48 in Basketballmonster. Childress will likely slip a bit once the Hawks get healthy, but I’d bet he’ll finish top 50-60.
(Last year he finished at #63)
I’m thinking Battier will end up in the 40-45 range, given the boost in pts and rebs he should get with Yao out of the lineup.

05
Terrance
January 3rd, 2007 10:17 am

i was offered kirilenko and battier for mo williams and kevin martin.

williams and martin were huge sleepers of mine and i got them in teh 9-10 rounds respectively. i wouldnve done this trade in a heartbeat at the beginning of the season. any thought on this trade now? i ran it though teh basketball monster trade analyzer and it comes out to be a crappy trade for me.

i was also huge on battier this season, hes been a letdown compared to what i expected, but those defensive #’s are nice to have.

heres the deal, i have 3 players on my team who fit into this column that bv wrote…(great column btw). i have childress, granger, and garbajosa. all three of these guys are jacks of all trades, masters of none. i dont know if the trade for battier and kiri would benefit my team of solid but unspectacular player. i have a well rounded team…..with only 2 C’s now that krstic is out…..that hurt:). i know alot of people who read the FBB were affected by his injury.

its not a bright idea to run with 2 C’s, i added blount after krstic went down and had # c’s then. when i saw childress on the FA wire and ready to come back i had to cut my losses with blount and go for the talent.

H2H league-9 cats…w/TO
PG Jameer Nelson
SG Kirk Hinrich
G Kevin Martin
SF Ricky Davis
PF Kevin Garnett
F Danny Granger
C Dwight Howard
C Jorge Garbajosa
Util Joe Johnson
Util Mo Williams
BN Hedo Turkoglu
BN Raymond Felton
BN Josh Childress

06
CBass
January 3rd, 2007 1:41 pm

So do you think giving away Crawford for Webber was a good risk? I needed to take a chance on a forward, and I have Barnes to fill in for now.

Also, I picked up Jameer Nelson last night after his big game. Tony Allen is available and putting up great numbers. Who do you think is a better stopgap for 1-2 weeks: Nelson or Allen?

07
CBass
January 3rd, 2007 1:42 pm

I picked up Jameer Nelson last night after his big game. Tony Allen is available and putting up great numbers. Who do you think is a better stopgap for 1-2 weeks: Nelson or Allen?

08
Terrance
January 3rd, 2007 1:43 pm

well, im a nelson guy. webbers had a rough year and i dont like crawfords game. so who would i rather have? id take crawford.

09
bv
January 3rd, 2007 1:46 pm

cbass, i’m not a fan of crawford at all, so sure, take webber although I think he’s the lesser of two evils. I will admit this is the first time I’ve seen “Webber” and “upside” in the same sentence since 1998. I also like Nelson over Allen long-term, though maybe Allen by a hair as a stop-gap.

10
bv
January 3rd, 2007 1:48 pm

Terrance, I nearly made Mo Williams one of the guys I wrote about here. I think that if you’re struggling in your league you make that trade, but if you’re doing well I’d hold off. AK47 is just such a risk that I don’t think I could trade for him unless I was ready to take a big chance.

11
Terrance
January 3rd, 2007 2:12 pm

thanks for the advice bv. my team is good 4.5 games out of first and im in 6th place. but well ahead of 7th place. so ill hold off….

webber is in the FA, i have garbajosa who is my 2nd C. is webber good enough to pickup and run with dwight howard as my only center? in h2h total games played each week matter quite a bit, just wanted yr opinion.

12
Terrance
January 3rd, 2007 2:16 pm

just read and interesting article on webber. hes the leagues highest paid player? hard to believe! he can thank the maloof brothers for that one.

13
Kuss
January 3rd, 2007 3:17 pm

Webber is actually the second highest player. Ranking slighted ahead at #1 is KG.

14
john
January 3rd, 2007 7:49 pm

going to the other end of the spectrum? which underachieving “name players” should be cut loose?
i think people have essentially given up on peja, but what about jrich? i plan to pick him up, and drop juwan howard, but is he worth a number 4 waiver priority?

15
DM
January 3rd, 2007 7:52 pm

Sounds like a column to me, john. Check back in the morning. Oh, and also ….

GILBERT!!!!!!!

16
alex
January 3rd, 2007 8:25 pm

hey guys of the injured studs, which ones will have lingering issues when they step back on court? i’ve been offered childress for lewis in my league. lewis’s injury is a hand one and im scared it’ll affect him. added to that is the fact seatlle wont be fighting for a playoff spot later in the season and im scared lewis will just shut it down. probably would have done this deal yesterday without too much thought, but thanks to your column you’ve got me thinkin hard.

and also, any of you guys still holding onto milicic? i knew i would need patience when i drafted him but its wavering atm.

17
bublitchki
January 3rd, 2007 8:51 pm

Lewis is in a contract year. I don’t think he’ll be shutting anything down until after the ink on his next deal is dry.

18
alex
January 3rd, 2007 9:06 pm

forgot about that. thanks mate.

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