Yesterday BV took a look at some underappreciated players and today we’ll keep the prefix and look at some underachieving players. These are guys that were taken in the first half of my draft and haven’t come close to living up to expectations, whether it’s due to injures or simply underperforming. Let’s break it down and try to give some advice going forward.
Andrei Kirilenko
I’ve always been one of the biggest AK47 supporters, but at a certain point you just have to face reality. Kirilenko is simply not a first-round fantasy talent. Or a second round one, for that matter. Those blocks and steals are just so easy to fall in love with, and it was easy to make excuses for him the past couple years as injuries really derailed him. The thinking that he was still young enough to combine his rare skill set with good health and standard improvement over age into a true fantasy stud. It’s not that he hasn’t blossomed into an offensive force, it’s that he’s truly and remarkably regressed, or at least deferred. In his last fully healthy season he averaged 16.5 ppg, and he was right around 15.5 the past couple injury-plagued seasons. Perhaps we should have seen the signs last year when his scoring averaged dipped ever so slightly despite averaging five more minutes per game. But it still wouldn’t have prepared us for this year, where he’s averaging a mere 6 FGA per game. With all the scoring that’s going on this year, you simply can’t be a top fantasy player with that little scoring. Ben Wallace basically maximized the value of a non-scorer, and he was never more than a mid-to-late second round pick at very best. Kirklenko sure looks like the 4th option – at best – on this Utah team and while he doesn’t seem thrilled about it, he’s going about his business being a defensive stopper who still racks up the blocks, if not necessarily the steals. I still see better things for him in the coming months and expect to finally see a 20-point game, and an injury to one of Utah’s big threats might change this outlook. Then again, he’s probably more likely to go down than anyone else. He’s still got plenty of value, probably a top 40 player, but if you can somehow get a solid third rounder for him, it’s probably time to do it.
Jason Richardson
Of the many injured players, I think Richardson is the toughest call when it comes to holding or dropping. J-Rich was a truly great fantasy performer last year, but was clearly bothered by his knee for the entire season up to breaking his hand the other night. The closest he got to a groove was the end of November when he averaged 20.3/5.3/5.3 with 2.7 3s, which was close to what he averaged last year. He played a combined 89 minutes in the last two of those games, managed only 28 combined in his next two, missed the next eight and hit double digits in only two of seven after that before going down with the broken hand. Perhaps this time off will let Richardson’s knee finally heal, but there’s no way of knowing for sure. If you want to look for a positive, though, that’s not a bad one. His recovery time is set for at least one month, but it sure seems like it will be closer to two, meaning he might only be back for the final month and a half. Teams that have Richardson are likely struggling in the standings since their third or fourth round pick has given them basically nothing over the entire season, so the temptation to cut him is probably high, and if you need immediate help, it’d be hard to blame you. But for a solid team looking for a guy who can help at the end of the season, J-Rich would be a great person to grab. We know he’s capable of being a top 30 player. We know the Warriors system lends itself to players having tons of value. Matt fucking Barnes, anyone? (Seriously, what the shit? He was as 10-day contract as they come for so long. Unreal. Anyway…) We know that Don Nelson will just throw people out there for huge minutes, and if Richardson says he’s good to go, why wouldn’t he do that? Kelenna Azubuike wasn’t even on the team a few days ago, doesn’t even have a page on Yahoo, and he started and poured in 15 last night. Basically, it’s a cut him if you really have to, but don’t expect to be getting him back if you do.
Mike James
We all knew it was going to be downhill for James, but this was about the worst that could be expected. Last night might be a new low as James put up a pathetic 6/2/1 in 16 minutes and was rendered obsolete by rookie Randy Foye who scored 19 in 41 minutes in a big OT win against the Spurs. It looked like James might have turned a corner at the beginning of the month, and he’s had a couple of random big games, but he’s reached double digits in just 4 of his past 11 games. He’s at #103 on the APR, nestled in between a couple of other very disappointing mid-round picks in Larry Hughes and Richard Jefferson. James is sitting out whole quarters and has no permanent place in the rotation as he battles not only Foye but the surprisingly solid (and now banged up) Marko Jaric for minutes. James is certainly a cut candidate right now. I can’t stand inconsistency and that’s been the only thing James can be counted on for this season. It’s about time to cross last year’s stat line out when looking at James going forward. Before that free for all in Toronto he was a 12 points in 25-30 minutes guy who’d give you a few 3s and steals. And whaddya know, he’s at 12 ppg in 29 mpg with 1.0 3s and 0.8 spg this year. I wouldn’t be cutting him for Foye, and probably not for Damon Stoudamire based on one big game, but with all the random talent this year, there might very well be someone better than James out there. This isn’t at all like the case of Mike Bibby who had as perfect a track record you could want and just wasn’t getting shots to fall. This is just James playing like, well, Mike James.
Peja Stojakovic
Remember a month and a half ago when I debated who was more valuable, Stojakovic or Caron Butler? Wouldn’t make for quite as an intriguing column these days, huh? Unless you are playing in a seriously deep league or have tons of bench spots, Stojakovic has got to be cut. Because there are so many injuries, it means that most teams are holding onto an injured player or two, so roster spots are at a premium. For as long as Stojakovic is going to be out, it has to be a real superstar, such as Rashard Lewis, who is an absolute no-brainer to hold on to during his two month absence. All the signs are negative for Peja – major back surgery, not even attempting to give a timetable for return, just signed a big contract so team won’t want to rush him back, especially since they’ll be far out of the playoff picture by then. Best case scenario would seem to have him back for the last month or so, but it seems like we really may have seen the last of Peja this season. Darius Songaila seems to have undergone a similar operation, and as a Wizards fan I’ve been following his progress and he had surgery before the season started and they’re saying that he might start practicing after the all-star break. So there’s one example. There are just too many guys out there to bother holding onto a player without huge upside who seems to unlikely to return.
Chris Webber
Honestly, if C-Webb was sitting there on waivers right now I wouldn’t put a claim in for him and I’m not sure I’d even pick him up as a free agent. Yeah yeah, how the mighty have fallen and all of that, but the thing is he was plenty valuable last season, so it becomes even more frustrating. But he does look washed up, even if he is only giving half effort when he bothers to suit up. It’s almost impossible to see Webber going anywhere with that batshit insane contract and his lackluster game. I mean, Webber’s status when it comes to a trade is probably that rarest of categories – “Not even Isiah.” So if he decides he wants to play again this year it’ll be for the Sixers, who might not even want him back. They can let players who might be a part of the next winning Sixers team get experience trying to carry a team, and while it’s no sure thing the Sixers are actually better with Webber in the lineup, losses equal a better chance at Greg Oden or Kevin Durant. Another reason to stay away from Webber is that brutal shooting percentage. He’s not quite at 39% on the year, which is obviously putrid, even more so from the PF spot. It’s not like this is anything new either, since he hasn’t topped 43% since 02-03. Also, there’s just something icky about having Webber around. I know I know, that’s not so easy to quantify, but he’s a guy who will surely perform at his best when on your bench then quit on you once you start him. Those guys suck.
Charlie Villanueva
It seemed like such an obvious breakout campaign for Villanueva, and then he averaged 18.8/10.8/2.5 with 1 3 and 1.3 steals on 52% shooting. Then he had a few off games, got hurt, rushed back, got benched, saw his team get hot as his role decreased, and now he seems to be hurt again as he was in a suit on the sidelines last night. His owners were probably very happy when he ended up missing only three weeks after a four-to-six week estimate for elbow ligament damage, but it seems like that wasn’t such a great decision right now. He looked very awkward with that bulky harness over half his body, although his rate stats didn’t really suffer too much over the month of December. Villanueva’s situation really is the worst because not only did he get injured but multiple players have become factors during his downtime. Charlie Bell, Ruben Patterson and Brian Skinner are all locked into the Bucks’ rotation right now, so it seems unlikely that Villanueva will be able to see serious minutes for a long while. He’s the type of player who looks for his shot enough to be able to have value even with a regular 30 minutes, but he’s a long way from there right now. Right now I’d hold onto him just to see what his deal is, see whether he’ll be out for any extended period of time, and then proceed from there. His upside is still very nice, but he has lots of hurdles to clear right now.