First off, yes, of course I was at Gilbert Arenas’s big 25th birthday bash on Friday night. What, you think Gilbert would have a party and not invite me? Come on! My plan to hit on chicks by telling them I was Abe Pollin’s grandson didn’t go too well, but I did smoke a blunt with The Game, so it wasn’t a total loss.
Anyway, we all know how injuries and trades can alter the fantasy values of player on entire teams, but a coaching change can have just as much of an impact. We’re seeing an obvious example of that down in Memphis, where Mike Fratello was shown the door and Tony Barrone has taken over and implemented a freewheeling style of play focusing on a few top options. Let’s take a look at some of the most fantasy relevant players on the Grizzlies and see what their performances over the first five games of the Barrone hint at for the rest of the season.
Mike Miller
We were fans of Miller coming into the season, even though he never really took off in any of his first seven years in the league. Someone had to score with Pau Gasol out to start the season and Miller was really the only option, so we had him pegged as a fifth rounder. He probably slipped past the fifth in most drafts and has been perhaps the best value pick so far. Don’t look now, but he’s at #12 on the player rater. Sure, that drops to 31 on the APR, but as I’ve been saying a lot lately, good health counts for even more this season. Miller had a shaky November but caught fire from deep in December and clearly established himself as the Grizzlies top offensive option. Now that Gasol is back he’s sharing the load, but a clear hierarchy has been established with Miller and Gasol as the Grizzlies main offensive weapons. In Barrone’s five games as coach, the two have been the Grizzlies two highest scorers in four of the five games, with Miller scoring 24 in the other contest. This is one of the best signs for Miller going forward, as players who have a clear role as a top option have the most consistent fantasy value. The Grizzlies were a team without an identity, and it seems they may have found it early on in the Barrone era. It’s a team that will push the tempo and try to beat you with Gasol on the inside and Miller gunning away from the outside. Miller is averaging nearly 10 attempted 3s per game over his last eight contests, a simply ridiculous number, but any night in which he attempts 5 or less qualifies as an aberration these days. Miller’s seemingly been waiting his whole career to become a go-to guy and he finally has the chance.
Pau Gasol
Barrone’s takeover has coincided with Gasol finally playing enough minutes to make a real impact. Fratello was very slowly easing Gasol back into the flow of things, probably too slowly for Gasol’s owners who waited for the first month and a half for him to return. He averaged just 23.3 mpg in right games under Fratello, but has upped that number to 33.8 under Barrone. That’s still nowhere near the 39.2 he averaged last year, but it’s still enough for him to do plenty of damage, especially in the new high-octane offense. He’s averaging 23.0/8.6/2.2 with 2.4 blocks in the past five, numbers that would make him a top 20 player were he to maintain that pace all season. Nobody likes to spend a pick on an injured player on draft day, and when Gasol went in the 7th round in my league, I thought it was a few rounds too early. There was a lot of hoping for best case scenarios, but it seems those scenarios might have actually played out. Gasol was blossoming into an elite player last season and he’s right in the middle of his prime. It is always worrisome when big men have feet problems, and Gasol’s two injuries over the past few years are indeed similar. His owners will probably never feel completely comfortable with him, but dealing him for anything less than a third round value at this point is selling too low.
Rudy Gay
Gay was FBB’s favorite rookie coming into the season but he hasn’t shown much more than a few flashes. BV talked about him right before Barrone took over, but it’s been more of the same for Gay over the last five contests – one standout game, a couple of almost mediocre performances and a couple of stinkers. Gay’s total lack of consistency has made him of very little value so far this year and he remains someone who just can’t be trusted on right now. Since he’s starting now he’s worth owning in just about all leagues, as his upside as a scorer who can contribute in steals and blocks could give him plenty of value. A reason for optimism is that Barrone has seemingly phased out the Joneses, Eddie and Dahntay, as Eddie has played 5 total minutes in the past two contests and Dahntay went from starting and playing 41 minutes on Dec. 18 to going scoreless in 8 minutes yesterday. I’d hang in there with Gay, at least as the high upside bench player. Nobody thought the transition would completely smooth, as he had an unpolished game coming out of school. His shooting must improve if he’s to be helpful to fantasy teams, though. We’ve all heard plenty about Grizzlies management wanting to see more of the rookie and Barrone seems at least willing to give him a chance to prove he belongs out there. He’ll be too inconsistent for some owners, but it all starts with minutes, and he looks like he’ll be seeing a few more of those these days.
Damon Stoudamire
I’ve always been a Stoudamire fan, but he’s simply past his usefulness in fantasy leagues. Yes, he’s been impressive the past few games, averaging 16.0/2.3/9.7 with 2.3 3s and 1.7 steals. Those are obviously fantastic numbers. But he did that in just 25 mpg, and he simply will not keep up that pace. And he’s unlikely to play more minutes than 25 as long as Chucky Atkins is around. He hasn’t topped 40% shooting since the 01-02 season, and even if he’s not taking too many shots, he can do some serious damage there. When he was playing 35 mpg and could accumulate enough numbers to balance it out, he was worth playing. Now he’s just not worth your trouble, recent hot stretch or not.
Stromile Swift
Oh, like you even need to ask. If he was starting, then maybe – maybe – you could talk me into it. But depending on a perennial tease to produce while coming off the bench is just silly, and you know it. The numbers in the past five look fantastic, especially for teams in need of a center (and there aren’t many that don’t need help in the middle). In 32 mpg he’s averaging 15.4 and 8 with 1.8 blocks on 58% shooting, the kind of numbers we’ve been deluding ourselves into thinking he could producer for the last five years. But he’s still the same player and he’s had stretches like this before. Alexander Johnson isn’t anywhere near fantasy relevance, but the Grizzlies like what they have there and he’s playing well enough to keep starting and getting his 20-25 mpg. As long as he stays at that number, Swift won’t be of use to anyone.