Always one of the most controversial picks in fantasy drafts, Shaquille O’Neal is due back from knee surgery at some point this month, and the other day I found myself wondering - at this point in his career, is Shaquille O’Neal even ownable, much less startable?  I was always extra reluctant to own the Big Aristotle - category killers usually have no place on my fantasy teams - but still, you could always make the case that all of his other attributes made up for the kill in FT%.  But now, with the injury problems, the severly reduced numbers, and questionable motivation for a guy who desperatedly needs motivation, the question is still there.  Does Shaq belong on a fantasy roster?

I had a tough time answering, so let’s take a look at Shaq and figure out if one of the most dominant players of the past 15 years can be even moderately effective for a fantasy team again.

First of all, let’s take a look at the declining production, and you know what?  I learned something today.  Let’s look at the last 2 years of Shaq and how they measure up against one another.  I’m not going to incorporate his 4 games from the beginning of the year that he played on a bum knee, as it’s not a big enough sample size and probably an unfair comparison.  So anyhow, here are his per 30 minute stats from his first two years in Miami:

‘04-’05: 20.2/6.2/2.4 with 2.0 blocks, .4 steals, 60/46 FG/FT%.
‘05-’06: 19.7/9.0/1.9 with 1.8 blocks, .4 steals, 60/47 FG/FT%.

What I learned today, as I prepared to talk about how steady Shaq’s decline has been, is that he really didn’t decline all that much from 2 years ago to last year.  Sure, he missed 14 more games last year than the year before, but the per-minute stats are pretty much right on line.  In fact, almost all of his statistical decline from the past few years (going back to his last year in LA) can be attributed to his decline in minutes.  So maybe from a performance level, Shaq can be where he’s been over the past few years, which has landed him at 94 (last year) 58 (two years ago), and 66 (three years ago) on the APR.

So, as Hubie Brown would say, we know that Shaq can be an effective fantasy player if he’s going to play 30 minutes a game.  What we don’t know is if he’ll get those 30 mpg.  Among the factors to consider:

1. How quickly he can bounce back from surgery.  Last year Shaq missed 18 games early in the season, but only took three games of part-time work to get back into his 30 mpg action.  His last year in LA, he was out for about a dozen games in the middle of the year with a calf injury, but took only one game of part-time work before really getting his game back.  So, what we know is that it won’t take him long, once he returns, to start playing at full strength.

2. How realistic Miami’s chances of getting into the playoffs are when he comes back.  Right now the Heat are only two games out of the playoffs and assuming that Shaq returns sometime this month, they won’t be much more than 5 games back, right?  Which is easy to make up with half the season left.  (On a side note, if the season ended today, ALL FIVE Central division teams would be in the playoffs.  Crazy!) Anyhow, Shaq will probably be playing his full 30 mpg as long as the Heat have a chance of salvaging their season.

3. How he responds to his new coach.  I’m just kidding, of course.  Shaq makes the decisions here, not whatshisname.

So it looks like as long as the Heat are competitive, Shaq will see his minutes.  He should maintain 30 mpg and end up somewhere similar to last year on the APR.  Let’s assume he does slip a little bit, and ends up somewhere between 110 and 120 on the APR.  Add in the fact that he’s a center, and Shaq is definitely worth owning in most leagues and he’s startable in deeper ones.  I will say that I thought, going into this article, that it would be a little more the other way on this one, but I guess you can’t count out the big guy just yet.  There are, however, two caveats, one small and one big:

Caveat #1: Just a minor one.  We don’t talk about turnovers very much here on FBB because our league doesn’t use them but it’s also worth mentioning that Shaq’s 2.8/game last year was the worst in the league among centers.  So, if you’re in a league that counts turnovers that’s another big strike.

Caveat #2: Oh, and this one’s a biggie.  Here’s a little trick you can do on Basketball Monster when you’re trying to figure out if you should punt a category.  Run the player rater, but take out the category you’re punting.  Then, see which guys take a huge leap from their regular spots - those are the guys you should be targeting.  Like I mentioned, last year when you account for FT% as well as everything else, he comes in at 94 on the APR.  But drop the FT% and guess where he is.  I would think maybe somewhere in the 30’s or 40’s, but he came in at THIRTEEN.  Ahead of first round picks like Dirk Nowitzki, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce!  If you’re punting FT%, Shaq is a no-brainer, must-own in all formats.