Ah, a Monday with no work. What could be better? Maybe if that Monday was preceded by a Sunday on which I won $175 at blackjack in Atlantic City. Well hey, whaddya know! BV at least didn’t lose all of his money, so, y’know. And what could really make it better? How about if there were nine NBA games tipping off before 24 tonight? Yes, that would make it just about a perfect day. I don’t know about you, but I’ll be parked in front of my TV watching the Wizards and flipping through the rest of the action, so on this rare day of afternoon delight, here’s a preview of sorts of all the games tipping off by 2 p.m.
Sacramento vs. New York
Here let’s talk about a couple of point guards who people are probably kicking themselves if they cut bait on early in the season. We basically pleaded with people not to give up on Mike Bibby when things weren’t going well early in November. It’s one thing to cut bait on a one-year wonder like Mike James, but Bibby was just too much of a proven commodity to send to the waiver wire or trade low. We all knew his wrist was bothering him, but what was bothering his owners even more was that he was taking shots as if it wasn’t an issue. He launched nearly 6 3s per game in November, hitting on just 29% of them, and his overall FG% was hovering in the mid-30s. But the shooting was really the only thing that was different about Bibby’s game. His assists, boards, steals, FGA, FTA, turnovers – everything – were exactly where you would expect them to be. This was simply a case of shots not falling. So with the combination of his wrist improving and regression to the mean, it was safe to think that Bibby would return to being the Bibby we’ve known. And despite a couple of very rough outings in his past two contests, that’s been exactly the case. Even taking into account those last two in which he’s shot 7-for-25, Bibby has averaged 22.7 with 2.3 3pg on 48% shooting. Patience is rewarded. The same is true with Stephon Marbury owners. He looked even worse than Bibby early on because not only was he not producing, but he wasn’t even trying. But suspensions and injuries opened the door for consistently big minutes and that did the trick for Steph. Counting the brawl game, Marbury has averaged 21.3/3.8/6.8 with 2 3pg in his past 13. Those were the numbers that I was hoping for when I took him in the 4th round, although the 3s are a very pleasant surprise. The Knicks are 7-5 since the brawl and perhaps Isiah realizes that a shorter rotation leads to greater success. Patience with the proven stars, two fine lessons right here.
Utah vs. Washington
Instead of talking about a specific player on the Jazz, let’s give credit where credit is due to a recent nemesis of fantasy owners everywhere – Jerry Sloan. In the past few years we’ve often complained about his way of handling PT, especially with his best players, but there’s not too much we can argue with this year. Carlos Boozer is averaging a robust 37 mpg, Deron Williams is almost right there, and Mehmet Okur is just under 33. OK, maybe Okur’s number could be a bit higher, especially since he was at nearly 36, but Okur has been plagued by foul trouble in many games this season, registering at least 5 fouls in 10 contests, and picking up early ones in many others. The shooting guard position has seen plenty of turnover, but Boozer, Williams and Okur have started every game. So maybe Sloan really wasn’t jerking us around and he was just waiting until he had consistent, reliable options to reward PT as such. The Wizards haven’t been the same since Gilbert Arenas’s big birthday bash. I swear I didn’t do anything, I didn’t talk to a single player or really even make eye contact with anyone. I hope my presence didn’t throw them off. Arenas said his shoulder is bothering him and the FG% doesn’t lie – 31% in his last four, while still attempting 18.5 shots per game. That is flat out bad. BV and I were talking about who would be the #1 pick in next year’s draft on the way to AC yesterday and Arenas’s name is certainly in the equation, but it’s shooting like that that makes you wary of taking him at the very top. He’s basically putting up peak Allen Iverson numbers with tons of 3s, but 43% shooting on 20 or so shots per game will dig you a big hole there. That was the problem we always had with AI and just because Gilbert’s our boy we can’t overlook that. But, of course, we’re talking about negatives about being taken first overall. He’s the man, let’s just hope he finds his stroke soon.
Milwaukee vs. Charlotte
The Bucks, along with New Orleans and Boston, are one of those squads that has just been impossibly decimated by injuries. So where’s the silver lining here? It sure looks like Andrew Bogut. Playing on a team with shoot-first (and second) guys like Michael Redd, Mo Williams and Charlie Villanueva, it was tough for Bogut to get it going early on. In one 13-game stretch in December he attempted 10 or more field goals just once. And this is a guy who is shooting 56% on the season! Things are obviously different now. He’s attempted 14.7 in his last three contests and has become a one-man wrecking crew on the glass, as you’ve no doubt noticed. Guys like Charlie Bell and Earl Boykins are going to take more shots and probably hurt you (perhaps a lot) in FG%, but the opposite is true for Bogut. Yes, he had a 3-for-15 stinker, but he evened it out with 17-for-29 in those next two. His lack of blocks has been a huge bummer and may prevent him from ever being a true #1 center for fantasy purposes (at least Okur nails 3s), but Bogut should be in for a fine two weeks. Over in Charlotte, could Derek Anderson actually be worth a roster spot right now? It’s hard to argue with his last three outings – 18.3/3.3/2.0 with 3.7 3s and 2.7 steals. But the answer is still no. Fellow “wait-he’s-still-around?” journeyman Jeff McInnis is around to take some minutes now (as long as he’s correctly placed on the active roster), Gerald Wallace should be back within a week or so, and there’s still the on-fire Matt Carroll and Adam Morrison to deal with. Anderson was a decent option as recently as 2004 with Portland, getting just enough 3s, assists and steals to have value as a utility player in fantasy, and it’s nice to see the veteran come back from injury to show he can still play. But those 3s and steals are an anomaly and that’s where the value in his recent surge is coming from. You can find better options.
San Antonio vs. Chicago
As usual, there’s just not much to talk about with the Spurs. But let’s focus on Tim Duncan for a moment. Timmy is currently 14/26 on the player rater, which is about as good as can be. Yes, the FT% is killer – the owner with him in our league is in next to last in that category – but everything else is where it should be. Except the FG%, of course, which currently sits at a career high 55%. Granted, it’s coming on a career low 14 FGA per game, but that is still mighty impressive. And it’s also probably not going to last. Trading your top center is almost never feasible, but if there’s a team who is looking to land a superstar, it’s possible that Duncan can give you a great return right now. There are changes in the starting lineup for the Bulls, and it might be a double negative for fantasy owners. We always, always prefer starters to reserves, but it’s hard to argue with Ben Gordon’s production off the bench – 22.6 ppg, 1.9 3s, 46% shooting – and his numbers as a starter – 14.4 ppg, 1.0 3s, 43% shooting. He’s replaced Chris Duhon in the starting lineup for the time being and his first game against Memphis gave us hope that this weird trend would end. And I do think that will be the case. Gordon has always wanted to start and he will take advantage of this opportunity and put up fine numbers – meaning basically the same numbers he had been putting up. He was averaging more minutes as a reserve, so as long as he keeps getting those 32 mpg, he’ll be the top 50 player he’s been so far. Meanwhile, Andres Nocioni will head to the bench, and his owners can’t be happy with this. It’s possible he will thrive in the role like Gordon, and he’s been able to do so in the past, but he has been inconsistent to begin with and this certainly shouldn’t help matters.
Boston vs. Atlanta
OK, can’t promise I’ll be flipping to this one too often. What a bummer for Tony Allen. The guy was simply one of the fantasy stars of January with a ridiculous line of 20.8/5.2/3.4 with a whopping 4 spg while shooting 58.5%. And his season ends on a dunk after the whistle. Nobody on Boston will match those numbers, but it’s time to jump back on the Gerald Green bandwagon, at least until Paul Pierce returns. I like that Green will almost certainly give you at least a couple of 3s if he’s in the starting lineup. You can count on getting at least something out of him, as he’s hit at least two from downtown in 5 of his 6 starts. The other numbers will fluctuate – maybe some boards, maybe some steals, maybe a block or two – but with 35+ minutes, he’s a fine starting option. I picked up Marvin Williams a few weeks before he was ready to return and was looking forward to having him fill a utility slot for the last couple of months of the season. But then I traded him last week for a guy who might not even deserve to be on a roster right now, Mike James. Huh? Williams has looked just awful since his return. He can’t shoot, he’s turning the ball over a lot and he simply doesn’t look like he belongs on the floor. He’s still rusty from not being able to play due to his injury, but I decided to cut bait. He might still be a factor after the all-star break, but I figured I’d buy low with James and hope he has just one stretch of 7 or 8 fantastic games in him. I’ve at least seen him do that; not the case with Marvin.
Toronto vs. Philadelphia
OK, can’t say I’ll be flipping to this one too much, either. But if I do, it will be to watch Andrea Bargnani. The #1 pick is the #60 player over the past 15 days, right in between Luol Deng and Tayshaun Prince. He started just one contest in that time, but has seen at least 24 minutes in each game and has topped 30 in four of his last seven. Everyone wants to compare him to Dirk Nowitzki because they are both Euros, but you know who I see a bit of in his game? Rashard Lewis. Both guys are 6’10” and can seriously stroke it from long range. The main problem people have had with Bargnani is that they look at his numbers and say, “Well, he doesn’t really help anywhere.” And the same can be said for Lewis, as well, except in 3s. He’s merely pretty good in most other areas, but that was good enough to get him to be one of the top fantasy performers before he got injured. And Bargnani is looking like he could be a serious contributor in blocks, as he has 11 games this year with two or more swats. It’s time to scoop the kid up if he’s still sitting out there. I’d certainly rather have him than Marvin Williams at this point. Remember how unhappy I was when Andre Miller got traded to the 76ers? Well, I can’t much complain about the way things have gone so far. Yes, his FG% has dropped from 47% in Denver to 42% in Philly, as he has to take more (and more difficult) shots. But his 13.0/4.5/9.1 line in Denver looks awfully similar to his 13.6/4.6/8.3 line in Philly. Yes, I’m still worried about what might happen in March when things are really ugly and the team is in full-on play-out-the-schedule mode and the 76ers brass is salivating for Greg Oden. But once again, I might be convincing myself of troubles that aren’t really there.