Just when you thought the Pistons were done pairing up old Washington Bullets front-line teammates, they sign up Chris Webber, who played for a grand total of one season with Rasheed Wallace in Washington back in ‘95-’96. Detroit has been a frustrating “great” team for fantasy owners, as only four guys have really been worth anything all year long. Nazr Mohammed has flirted with fantasy value and has actually put up nice per-minute stats (20th in blocks per minute, 24th in rebounds, 47th in steals) but until now only the Big Four have been consistent enough to start on fantasy teams. Will that change with Webber now in town? Let’s see…
Chris Webber, PF - Why not start here? There are a couple of things to consider with Webber, and DM covered some of them last thursday, but let’s revisit now that he’s in Detroit. Concern number one has to be minutes. There should be no illusions here - Chris Webber is here to help this team win a championship. Championships are not won in February. As long as the other four stay healthy, and Webber provides at least something, Detroit should run away with home court. Even if they don’t, Flip Saunders will have to keep a tight leash on Webber’s minutes. Why play the guy 35 mpg and wear him out by playoff time? To expect any more than 30 mpg out of Webber given his health and the situation he’s in is probably unreasonable, but that could change with concern number two: His drive. Webber was clearly unhappy in Philly, but you know what? He was unhappy last year and still put up almost 20/10. So I don’t think this is a Vince Carter situation here - I think Webber is legitimately hurt and legitimately old and is physically incapable of putting up 20/10 again or playing 35-40 mpg anymore. Then, there’s concern number three: his fit with the club. Webber showed in Philly that he can produce in multiple systems, and that should be the case here. His assist rate fell while playing next to AI but this year he’s been back to his typical per-minute passing numbers, and that should keep up in the free-flowing Detroit offense. Much like in Sacramento, he’ll be surrounded by four guys who can take and make 20-footers, so his assists will be there, though the points might not. So we’ve established that he won’t play more than 30 mpg, he’s hurt, but he’ll pass well. Let’s guess a line of 13/8/4 with a steal, a block, and decent %’s. That’s utility player sorta numbers right there. There’s one other wild-card here, though: Center eligibility. Should he gain it, he’s definitely a top-20 center. The rumor is that he’ll be a “center” here, and with Rasheed Wallace not qualifying at the five, he could certainly be eligible there after a few games. I think that’s where his “sneaky” value lies, and that’s why I’m saying VERDICT: BUY.
Rasheed Wallace, PF - First of all, this whole starting/not starting thing with Rasheed is stupid. He’s going to get his minutes either way, so this is a total non-issue. What’s more of a concern with Sheed is his overall prodyction when he’s on the court. His scoring has dipped to it’s lowest level in a decade, he’s not shooting from the arc as much and yet still has seen his FG% drop as well, and he’s hardly getting to the line at all. His big-man numbers have increased though, which makes sense as he’s making up for the loss of Ben Wallace, and he’s rebounding at a career-high rate. Wallace is going to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of Webber’s presence, though, because with Webber in the high post defenses will have to leave the lane open for Sheed down low, allowing for a lot of opportunities in the paint. Fantasy owners are probably tired of Sheed’s lack of scoring and may see Webber as a potential minutes-taker for Wallace, but that’s silly - his minutes will come from other places. Wallace may be available at a discount here, and it’s worth inquiring about. VERDICT: BUY.
Tayshaun Prince, SF - Prince has very quietly and very subtly improved this year over last, hitting more threes, rebounding and blocking better, shooting better, and scoring better. Prince will always be about where he is, though, and any changes will continue to be very subtle. VERDICT: HOLD.
Richard Hamilton, SG - How about the career year that Rip Hamilton’s having? The 23.3 points and 4.2 boards are both career highs. But what’s getting lost in all this hoopla is that no one has benefitted more from Chauncey’s absence than Rip. His 26.4/4.4/4.7 in January are ridiculous and bound to come down upon Billups’ return. Further, you can bet that the vast majority of assists on Detroit will now be going to Billups and Webber, and if they do bring a Marko Jaric-type in to the fold, that means even fewer dimes for Hamilton. Add this to the fact that Webber will at least participate in the offense as opposed to Dale Davis and Nazr Mohammed, and that means probably fewer shots here as well, though at a probably higher percentage. This looks like a nice sell-high opportunity. VERDICT: SELL.
Chauncey Billups, PG - He’ll be fine. Maybe a very slight dip in assists, but he’s still the man who makes everything go here on offense. He could also see a slight bump in threes as Webber is more likely to find him when he’s open, but again that should be insignificant. He is what he is, he ain’t what he ain’t, he be back soon enough. VERDICT: HOLD.
Everyone else: Listen, this isn’t like a trade. Even in Webber only plays 20 mpg, those 20 mpg are coming away from guys on this roster that aren’t the big four, and they struggle to have fantasy value like it is. If you’re holding onto Flip Murray, Nazr Mohammed, etc., you shouldn’t be. VERDICT: SELL.