Buy, Sell or Hold: Detroit Pistons

Just when you thought the Pistons were done pairing up old Washington Bullets front-line teammates, they sign up Chris Webber, who played for a grand total of one season with Rasheed Wallace in Washington back in ‘95-’96.  Detroit has been a frustrating “great” team for fantasy owners, as only four guys have really been worth anything all year long.  Nazr Mohammed has flirted with fantasy value and has actually put up nice per-minute stats (20th in blocks per minute, 24th in rebounds, 47th in steals) but until now only the Big Four have been consistent enough to start on fantasy teams.  Will that change with Webber now in town?  Let’s see…

Chris Webber, PF - Why not start here?  There are a couple of things to consider with Webber, and DM covered some of them last thursday, but let’s revisit now that he’s in Detroit.  Concern number one has to be minutes.  There should be no illusions here - Chris Webber is here to help this team win a championship.  Championships are not won in February.  As long as the other four stay healthy, and Webber provides at least something, Detroit should run away with home court.  Even if they don’t, Flip Saunders will have to keep a tight leash on Webber’s minutes.  Why play the guy 35 mpg and wear him out by playoff time?  To expect any more than 30 mpg out of Webber given his health and the situation he’s in is probably unreasonable, but that could change with concern number two: His drive.  Webber was clearly unhappy in Philly, but you know what?  He was unhappy last year and still put up almost 20/10.  So I don’t think this is a Vince Carter situation here - I think Webber is legitimately hurt and legitimately old and is physically incapable of putting up 20/10 again or playing 35-40 mpg anymore.  Then, there’s concern number three: his fit with the club.  Webber showed in Philly that he can produce in multiple systems, and that should be the case here.  His assist rate fell while playing next to AI but this year he’s been back to his typical per-minute passing numbers, and that should keep up in the free-flowing Detroit offense.  Much like in Sacramento, he’ll be surrounded by four guys who can take and make 20-footers, so his assists will be there, though the points might not.  So we’ve established that he won’t play more than 30 mpg, he’s hurt, but he’ll pass well.  Let’s guess a line of 13/8/4 with a steal, a block, and decent %’s.  That’s utility player sorta numbers right there.  There’s one other wild-card here, though: Center eligibility.  Should he gain it, he’s definitely a top-20 center.  The rumor is that he’ll be a “center” here, and with Rasheed Wallace not qualifying at the five, he could certainly be eligible there after a few games.  I think that’s where his “sneaky” value lies, and that’s why I’m saying VERDICT: BUY.

Rasheed Wallace, PF - First of all, this whole starting/not starting thing with Rasheed is stupid.  He’s going to get his minutes either way, so this is a total non-issue.  What’s more of a concern with Sheed is his overall prodyction when he’s on the court.  His scoring has dipped to it’s lowest level in a decade, he’s not shooting from the arc as much and yet still has seen his FG% drop as well, and he’s hardly getting to the line at all.  His big-man numbers have increased though, which makes sense as he’s making up for the loss of Ben Wallace, and he’s rebounding at a career-high rate.  Wallace is going to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of Webber’s presence, though, because with Webber in the high post defenses will have to leave the lane open for Sheed down low, allowing for a lot of opportunities in the paint.  Fantasy owners are probably tired of Sheed’s lack of scoring and may see Webber as a potential minutes-taker for Wallace, but that’s silly - his minutes will come from other places.  Wallace may be available at a discount here, and it’s worth inquiring about.  VERDICT: BUY.

Tayshaun Prince, SF - Prince has very quietly and very subtly improved this year over last, hitting more threes, rebounding and blocking better, shooting better, and scoring better.  Prince will always be about where he is, though, and any changes will continue to be very subtle.  VERDICT: HOLD.

Richard Hamilton, SG - How about the career year that Rip Hamilton’s having?  The 23.3 points and 4.2 boards are both career highs.  But what’s getting lost in all this hoopla is that no one has benefitted more from Chauncey’s absence than Rip.  His 26.4/4.4/4.7 in January are ridiculous and bound to come down upon Billups’ return.  Further, you can bet that the vast majority of assists on Detroit will now be going to Billups and Webber, and if they do bring a Marko Jaric-type in to the fold, that means even fewer dimes for Hamilton.  Add this to the fact that Webber will at least participate in the offense as opposed to Dale Davis and Nazr Mohammed, and that means probably fewer shots here as well, though at a probably higher percentage.  This looks like a nice sell-high opportunity.  VERDICT: SELL.

Chauncey Billups, PG - He’ll be fine.  Maybe a very slight dip in assists, but he’s still the man who makes everything go here on offense.  He could also see a slight bump in threes as Webber is more likely to find him when he’s open, but again that should be insignificant.  He is what he is, he ain’t what he ain’t, he be back soon enough.  VERDICT: HOLD.

Everyone else: Listen, this isn’t like a trade.  Even in Webber only plays 20 mpg, those 20 mpg are coming away from guys on this roster that aren’t the big four, and they struggle to have fantasy value like it is.  If you’re holding onto Flip Murray, Nazr Mohammed, etc., you shouldn’t be.  VERDICT: SELL.

01

[…] Fantasy Basketblog provides a detailed look at the entire Pistons roster. Excellent, I say. Excellent. […]

02
Jeremy
January 17th, 2007 11:10 am

Would it be wise to drop Chris Wilcox for Chris Webber, assuming that he is going to get C-eligibility? My main other bigs are Kaman, Camby, David West and Al Jefferson. The rest of my team are all guards/SFs and are too good to drop.

03
ic
January 17th, 2007 11:52 am

nice article on the pistons. in one league i own all the pistons starters, minus hamilton.

this is big news. espn reports that warriors are trading dunleavy, murphy, Ike Diogu and Keith McLeod to the Indiana Pacers for Al Harrington, Stephen Jackson, Jasikevicius and Josh Powell.

what do you think about the values of these players now? specifically murphy and harrington?

04
Andy
January 17th, 2007 12:47 pm

I like Harrington’s value to increase in the Warriors system. He should get plenty of minutes since Nellie likes offense, and his boards and assists could inch up since he’ll be playing in much higher-scoring games. Jackson’s value won’t change much, IMO. He’ll benefit from the system change as well, but the Warriors have a slew of shoot-first guards/swingmen and Jackson probably won’t score as much, especially when (if?) J-Rich is firing on all cylinders.

Murphy’s value has nowhere to go but up, and Rick Carlisle’s system suits him better than GSW’s. With Jermaine O’Neal around, Murphy will go back to being able to provide a three per game and he will always get his boards given the minutes. I think he’ll get to play a lot once he gets settled in since the Pacers aren’t exactly stacked with bigs after JON. Still, I would not expect huge things from Murphy; the C-eligibility is nice but he’s just a limited fantasy contributor with his lack of peripheral stats and relatively poor FG% for a F/C. Dunleavy could also benefit from the change of scenery but he’s got more competition for minutes, and frankly he’s never shown enough consistency to be a fantasy starter anyway.

05
January 17th, 2007 1:11 pm

This trade could be bad for Monta Ellis owners.

06
OB
January 17th, 2007 1:55 pm

who is going to replace jackson in the pacer lineup, ….marqui???

07
Andy
January 17th, 2007 2:08 pm

Looking at my post earlier I forgot how poorly Daniels has been playing lately, so Dunleavy is almost sure to get heavy minutes at the 2. He’ll have some value.

08
Jeremy
January 17th, 2007 11:37 pm

Pretty much, I wouldn’t be suprised to see lineups of:

GS: Davis/Jackson/Barnes/Harrington/Biedrins

IND: Tinsley/Dunleavy/Granger/Murphy/JO

Even if these aren’t the starting lineups, I would expect these guys to get the most minutes and warrant fantasy value. Dunleavy has a great chance to start over in Indiana. However, I would note that GS will have changes, as Richardson and Pietrus will be in the starting lineup when they are healthy, and there is also Monta Ellis competing for time so if the GS backcourt gets healthy then there won’t be nearly enough minutes to go around and someone loses value (and that will be Jackson, followed by Barnes).

You have to think that Murphy stands the most to gain from this swap assuming he plays healthy. Even if he doesn’t start (over Foster), I figure that he and JO will be on the court together at the 4/5 much of the time.

09
Jeremy
January 18th, 2007 3:07 am

My strategy for head to head this year = grab all the injured players. In the past month or so, I have acquired players including Josh Smith & Mo Williams when they were dropped due to injuries, and just now have picked up Yao Ming with a waiver request. Considering that I am #3 in my league right now, I can take the time to let them heal and stay competitive I think.

Anyways, here is my current roster:

PGs:
Andre Miller
Mike Bibby
Deron Williams
Mo Williams (inj)

Swingmen:
LeBron James
Paul Pierce (inj)
Josh Howard
Kevin Martin
Joe Johnson
Josh Smith

Bigs:
Marcus Camby
Al Jefferson
Chris Kaman
Yao Ming (inj)
David West (inj)

As you can see, I am very proud of the team I have assembled via draft, early season trading, and scouring the waiver wire. None of my guards/forwards are really dropable in my opinion. Andre Miller has sucked it up the last week, but he’s still going to get his and be a decent PG.

My real weakness is in my bigger players. Ming is still out but will return right? Also, assuming David West can come back to full strength, then I think I’m sitting in good shape.

However, would you recommend making any roster changes to my lineup? I dropped Chris Wilcox for Yao Ming, as I figure David West will be the more valuable player (I’ve had him on my bench nearly all season at this point). Anyways, the players I still have on my watch list are now Chris Wilcox, Chris Webber, and Jason Richardson for when he returns.

What do you guys think about Wilcox/Webber? Will either be more valuable than David West assuming that he comes back in a week or two? Webber might turn a new leaf in Denver, but then again there are lots of other guys planning on getting their own numbers in Detroit as well. I figure that I have to hang onto Kaman, even though he is rated much lower than Wilcox on my rater for the year.

Thanks for the advice.

10
Mike Seoul
January 18th, 2007 4:03 am

Basketball Jesus has always loved Diogu. He tried to get him for Artest last year and the Warriors said Ike was untouchable. Now he’s an afterthought in this deal, although I think Larry is pleased he got him. Does anybody else think he’s going to get a significant bump in his minutes? If you look at his per minute stats, he’s a pretty productive player.

Awesome site, guys.

Vote for Gilbert!

11
bv
January 18th, 2007 6:10 am

jeremy,

i don’t know if i’d hold on to mming at this point … i might drop him for webber. do some research but last i heard he’s a long way out from being back.

12
April 23rd, 2008 3:18 am
13
May 11th, 2008 7:47 am

Leave Your Comment

Name*
Mail*
Website
Comment