I hesitate to call yesterday’s deal between the Warriors and Pacers a blockbuster, mainly because I like to think that there has to be at least one excellent player involved in a blockbuster deal. There were just lots of players in this one. That said, there will certainly be fantasy implications, so let’s get right to it.
As if the Warriors weren’t a hard enough team to get a read on before, now they go and do this. They traded two guys that hadn’t been starting for them recently for two guys that were starting every game for the Pacers, so something’s gotta give.
Winner
Al Harrington – Harrington was playing fine in Indiana but should find the Warriors up-tempo style much more to his liking. He’s already averaging a (by far) career-high 1.5 3pg on 46% shooting, and you have to think that he’ll have the green light to launch from long range. If Matt Barnes can attempt 6 or 7 bombs each night, then why shouldn’t Harrington do the same? Harrington has a established himself pretty clearly as about a 17/7/2.5 over the past few years and not much should change except for the scoring. But if that scoring boost comes in the form of 3s, his owners will be plenty happy. Add in the fact that he’s really the only natural fit at the 4 on the team, and could even see some time in the middle, so his minutes should be pretty safe.
Holding Steady
Monta Ellis – Yes, Stephen Jackson’s arrival might result in Ellis’s return to the bench, but I still think that he will have plenty of fantasy value. He’s a favorite of Don Nelson’s and is simply a better player than Jackson and one of the Warriors best offensive options. And since Baron Davis going down is always a distinct possibility, he could slide right into the starting spot in that instance. Don’t panic with Ellis, but be ready for perhaps a slight dip in his numbers.
Sarunas Jasikevicius – I’ve always like the former Terp even if he has been a slight disappointment in the NBA. He once again won’t be anything more than a backup and shouldn’t be on any rosters now, but if there’s one thing that the Warriors have taught us it’s that you never know. It would take injuries – a couple, probably – to give Jasikevicius some value, but he hits 3s and can dish dimes, so if that opportunity presents itself, I feel confident he could capitalize.
Stephen Jackson – I don’t feel confident enough in Jackson’s abilities to put him in the winners column. Like Harrington, he might shoot enough extra 3s to give him some value, but even if he does take over the starting SG spot, Ellis will see plenty of minutes. Jackson can obviously play SF as well, but as is a continuing theme, there are plenty of people to compete with him for minutes there. He has more upside in Golden State than he did in Indiana, but I’m clearly more bullish on Harrington to benefit from the deal then Shooter.
Losers
Matt Barnes – It looks like Matt Barnes Wild Ride might finally be over. Not quite yet, mind you. But it might happen when Mickael Pietrus gets back. In January Barnes has realized that he is, in fact, Matt Barnes, shooting 38% from the field and 30% from long range. He’s wreaking havoc on my FG%, but at least he’s still contributing 2.1 3s, 1.8 steals and 7.1 boards per game. Along with 15.8 points and 0.6 blocks and that’s mighty fine, were it not for the shooting. Nelson obviously likes him and I do think that he has a chance to stay in the starting lineup for a while, but there are simply too many other players around. His best hope is that he sees plenty of minutes at PF, which isn’t entirely out of the question. I’m not cutting him yet and I’ll give him a bit of a leash, but one of the year’s best fantasy stories might have its ending soon.
Mickael Pietrus – Again, it’s a simple numbers game. Pietrus had been playing fairly well before spraining his ankle, but there are just too many players around, and that’s not even taking into account Jason Richardson, who should regain his starting spot and #2 option role once he returns from injury.
Now, for the Pacers, where it’s a lot happier.
Winners
Troy Murphy – All of you folks that have been holding on to Troy Murphy and hoping for the best, this is what you’ve been waiting for. It’s no sure thing, but Murphy should return to his old form once he gets situated in Indiana. But again, it’s no sure thing. The Pacers might not want to start Jermaine O’Neal or Murphy at center and might choose to keep Jeff Foster and O’Neal up front. In that scenario, Murphy would come off the bench. He needs a starting spot to be a sure-thing fantasy starter, although he should still see enough consistent minutes off the bench to be effective. But while we are all waiting for Murphy’s comeback, it’s worth remembering that, well, he’s not very good for fantasy purposes. He’s a very solid rebounder, but he’s also a big man who is a career 43% shooter and has never blocked a shot per game. Basically, don’t expect miracles from Murphy – just hope that he can return value as the 7th rounder you drafted him as.
Marquis Daniels – It’s hard to see who else would start at SG for the Pacers, although Daniels certainly hasn’t done anything to earn the position. Daniels became a favorite of mine after his end-of-season/playoff explosion a few years ago, but hasn’t shown much since then. His game isn’t especially fantasy friendly for a SG since he doesn’t hit any 3s at all and isn’t a big-time scorer. He can be a real asset in steals, though, if given the minutes. If you need help in that category, he could be worth a pickup right now. Don’t expect miracles, though, especially if the Mike Dunleavy/Corey Maggette rumors have any truth to them.
Ike Diogu – John Hollinger pointed out what should be pretty obvious to people who watch lots of hoops, and that’s the fact that Diogu is the steal of this deal. He’s a legit low-post scorer who shoots a high percentage from the field and the line. He has the potential to be a decent if not great shot blocker, too. His main problem is that he gets into foul trouble as well as anyone else in the league, which isn’t a good thing. He probably won’t see a ton of minutes, at least at first, since the Pacers have four solid bigs now, but if/when O’Neal goes down, don’t be surprised to see Diogu pick up a lot of the scoring slack.
Holding Steady
Danny Granger – The team trades away arguably it’s #2 and #3 options, but Granger doesn’t seem to be much of a beneficiary. Rick Carlisle likes to go big and there’s a chance he could start Granger at SG, but it’s more likely he will remain coming off the bench. He still has value in that role and should see his 30 mpg, but should remain somewhat inconsistent, making him a frustrating play in daily leagues, but a fine play in weekly leagues when the Pacers have a favorable schedule.
Mike Dunleavy – Like Granger, Dunleavy might be stuck in a bench role unless Carlisle wants to start him at SG. It should serve Dunleavy well to get away from Golden State, but he’s still Mike Dunleavy. He’s just a decent player, and he will probably help the Pacers more than your fantasy team. He can do a bit of everything, but doesn’t really excel at anything, and in fantasy that translates to “needs consistent big minutes to be worth your time.”
Loser
Jeff Foster – He could very well hold onto his starting spot, and Carlisle is a fan. But Murphy and Diogu are both fine rebounders and they bring far more offense to the table than Foster. He shouldn’t be on many fantasy teams as it is, and he’s an even shakier play now.