Buy, Sell, or Hold: New Jersey Nets

It’s going to be an interesting month in Jersey.  The Vince Carter trade watch is on, the Richard Jefferson injury watch is on, and the Jason Kidd off-the-court issues watch is on.  Meanwhile, in non-big 3 news, Nenad Krstic is still out for the year, and two UCONN rookies are looking to get some PT.  What it all adds up to is a .500 record, and about a month until the trading deadline.  Let’s do it:

Vince Carter, G/F - Let’s do some projecting here.  Right now, the Nets are 20-21.  They’re in first place in the Atlantic, and yet they’re also one game out of missing the playoffs altogether.  With Miami a virtual lock to pull out of the 9 spot and into the playoffs, and Indiana breathing new fire after the trade, the Nets will have to win the Atlantic to make the playoffs.  If they have a legitimate chance of making the playoffs (and thus securing the 4 spot in the East), it says here that they hang on to Carter.  I think that in a month, even without Jefferson, the Nets will hold on to the top spot in the Atlantic, and thus they’ll hold on to Carter, and so should you.  VERDICT: HOLD.

Jason Kidd, PG - With Jefferson out, the Nets are apparently looking at a by-committee approach to fill his role.  One of the scariest ideas out there - at least for Kidd owners - is for rookie Marcus Williams to fill in at the two, with Carter moving to the 3.  I’m not saying that Williams is going to take over the reins from Kidd of course, but when he’s on the court, he uses up possessions; his usage rate is higher than Kidd’s OR Jefferson’s.  He also doesn’t have the rapport with Kidd that Jefferson does.  This didn’t happen last night but it certainly could in the future.  Eddie House, he of the 16 shots in 23 minutes last night, is similarly assist-unfriendly.  So Kidd could see a minor dip in assists.  Another concern is even though Kidd has seemed to be ageless, the truth is that the two years prior to last he missed at least 15 games, so that’s something to store away as we head into the stretch run.  Then again, I’ve been wrong about Kidd for about three years running here… VERDICT: SELL.

***CAVEAT***
Both Vince Carter and Jason Kidd are FANTASTIC options for struggling teams.  They’re exactly what you’re looking for - guys who are, in all likelihood, going to be perorming just fine, but who each have little issues that could make fantasy owners worried.  They can probably be had at a slight discount because of these issues and right now, if your team is struggling, you’ve really got nothing to lose.  VERDICT: BUY (for struggling teams)
***

Richard Jefferson, SF - Jefferson’s due back in mid-late March, so that means he’s probably got about 10 or 15 games left in him this season, or about 1/3 of the remaining games left.  That’s assuming that a) he comes back on schedule and b) he comes back at full strength.  This is going to be entirely dependent on your bench but some teams may have no choice but to drop Jefferson, and at this point that’s not an awful idea.  VERDICT: SELL.

Mikki Moore, F/C - The Nets are a team that appears to avoid shot-blockers at all costs, and so Moore fits this role nicely.  He’s a journeyman 30-year old who is probably this year’s best example of our “minutes are the most important fantasy stat” rule.  He’s certainly nothing special, but he qualifies at C and won’t hurt you anywhere, so he certainly belongs on rosters and may even be worth starting.  VERDICT: BUY.

Jason Collins, F/C - This may be redundant here, but it’s worth remembering that Jason Collins is one of maybe 4 or 5 fantasy players who is completely worthless even when he’s playing 30 mpg - and he’s only playing 20.  VERDICT: HOLD (as in, hold off).

EVERYONE ELSE: Everyone hates the “by committee” approach in fantasy football, and this isn’t any better.  Eddie House was the “big winner” last night, and he only put up 12/2/3 with a steal and 2 3’s.  Tomorrow it could be Marcus Williams or Bostjan “apparently still in the league” Nachbar.  Not only are these guys going to be inconsistent but they’re also not going to top out as being too valuable.  If someone really steps up over the next few games this could change, but for now I’d wait.  VERDICT: HOLD.

01
CBass
January 23rd, 2007 1:30 pm

I give TJ Ford and Gerald Wallace for Jason Kidd? Should I offer this? Wallace has been sitting on my bench since i picked up Al Jefferson, who should continue to play well even with Pierce, right?

02
rich
January 23rd, 2007 3:06 pm

Dwayne Casey just got fired.. is this an obvious sign that the Randy Foye era is about to start?

03
Jeremy
January 24th, 2007 1:05 am

In reality, I think it (Richardson’s injury) gives Mikki Moore more value more than anyone else. More rebounds for him to grab as Richardson (who sometimes played the 4) will give more frountcourt minutes for the taking.

Strange if you look at a team like NJ where potentially only 2-3 guys are on a fantasy team, compared to teams like Phoenix and GS where there could be 7 or 8 guys on the team starting in fantasy leagues at any given time.

04
bv
January 24th, 2007 6:18 am

cbass, i’d make that offer, sure - but then again i’ve always been very low on wallace.

rich, i dunno if casey was the issue there - just because casey leaves doesn’t mean that mike james, et al leave as well…

Jeremy, as a Moore owner, i hope you’re right!

05
AA
January 24th, 2007 8:37 am

Can anyone picture Memphis dumping Gasol’s contract and renting Carter for 3 months?

06
colt
March 24th, 2007 4:07 am

hi guys
Nets is my best team in the nba i wish i could go to watch all their games i found a good web site where you can compare your NewJersey-Nets tickets an found cheap tickets
http://www.ticketwood.com/nba/NewJersey-Nets-Tickets/index.php
really is a good site

go go Nets

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