The Cagey Vets

Upside rules fantasy basketball. Everybody wants the Next Big Thing. Everybody wants to find that breakout season from the next young stud. But sometimes it’s the veterans that offer the best value. Today let’s look at three players who have been in the league for a while and always seem to be disrespected a bit on draft day, only to put up numbers year in and year out.

Antawn Jamison
I came up with today’s column idea while watching the Wizards take care of the Celtics, a game in which Jamison scored 34, giving him 69 in his past two contests. Jamison has got to be one of the most underrated players in fantasy, and I can tell you as a Wizards fan that he’s underappreciated by lots of folks here in D.C. Check out the comments on just about any blog post on the most excellent blog by the Wizards beat writers and you’ll see people clamoring for an Antawn trade. He may have his weaknesses, but how can you not appreciate what Jamison brings to the table every night? After his recent strong stretch Jamison is up to an astounding 17 on the player rater. Sure, it’s down to 26 on the APR, but we’re half way through the season, so it’s time to start rewarding players who have been out there every night, as Jamison has. Save for 14 games missed in the 04-05 season, Jamison has appeared in every single game since the 00-01 season. The big question with Jamison this year was whether he would continue to hit 3s at the rate that he was hitting them in the second half of last year. He never averaged more than 1 3pg before last season and as the season wore on he started becoming a serious long-distance threat and averaged 1.8 makes for the year. That number is up to 2.2 this season and a ridiculous 2.9 for the month of January. He’s the only player in the league averaging 2 3s and 8 boards per game, and to get 46% shooting from such a serious long range threat is a bonus. He was drafted at #45 on average in ESPN leagues, at #51 in my league, and is once again proving to be one of the best draft day bargains.

Andre Miller
Miller’s one of my guys. He seems to end up on my team more often than not, and I’m never upset about it. It’s true, he’s not the flashiest guy and won’t put up very gaudy stat lines. He’s topped 30 points just once in the past season and a half and has 10 made 3s in that span, which makes many people wary of him since he’s a point guard. Here’s yet another example of people focusing on what he can’t do rather than what he does bring to the table. Year in and year out, he outplays his draft position thanks to consistent play and outstanding health. He seems to be finding a groove in Philadelphia, averaging 16/6.8/10 in his last four games, and on the season is doing roughly exactly what he does every season. Around 13 points, 1.5 steals, solid FG% and boards for a guard and one of the top assist guys in the league. You’ll notice that in my Transaction Reaction columns, the most common type of player you’ll see on there is a guy who doesn’t really do much except hit some 3s. In my league, four of the top 25 players in 3PM are currently available as free agents. None of the top 25 players in assists are available. Astute owners can easily make up for Miller’s lack of 3s, and that strong FG% is a big-time help if you do indeed need to turn to one of those low-percentage specialists.

Richard Hamilton
You’ll notice that a trend with these guys is that they are all iron men. Hamilton has appeared in at least 76 games in the last four seasons and is well on his way this year. He has a somewhat well-earned reputation as a “points-only” player, but people who label him that must always finish in near the bottom in the percentages. Now granted, Hamilton’s FG% is down this year, but 46% from a SG who takes 18 shots per game is still a very good number. His 49% last year was a number that he’ll likely never match, but he also remains one of the best in the league from the line. (Although it was damn nice to see him go 3-for-6 in a 3-point loss to the Wizards on Friday while Brendan HaywoodBrendan Haywood! – hit all 6 of his freebies.) Hamilton’s the 7th best from the line so far this season, and he’s perennially in the top 10. He’s under 1 in 3s, steals and blocks, but at least he’s not a black hole, with 0.6 3pg and 0.9 spg. Relatively lackluster numbers, but better than nothing. And “points only” is a silly label anyway. Players who score points play minutes and players who play minutes are good for fantasy teams. Those minor contributions in 3s and steals, along with boards and assists add up. The top four teams in our league right now are are 2nd-4th-5th-1st in points. Teams with points are usually at the top of the standings. Hamilton sits at #47 on the player rater right now after being taken at #72 on average in ESPN drafts, and it feels like this scenario has played out for the past three seasons. He always gets his shots and points and is clearly the Pistons most consistent scoring option. As a middle round draft pick he doesn’t need to anchor a team, just be a consistent contributor. I love picking guys in rounds 5 through 8 that I can just plug in there for 80 games and know the numbers will be there in the end. Hamilton’s one of the best.

01
cman
January 29th, 2007 9:37 am

Another guy I like that is always a bargain - Udonis Haslem. He’s a lower tier than the players you mentioned, but he’s also always available into the 10th round or later of most drafts. Yet he always finishes at much higher value than that. Currently he stands at 67 on my BBM ratings, and is a rock steady 11/9 who shoots 50% with high 70’s in FT. (Although FT is a bit down this year) He’s not sexy, but he is a perfect 4th forward that you can just set and forget about. At the end of a week you have 40 points, 35 boards, 3-4 steals, 1-2 DD’s, and nothing hurting you anywhere.

02
rich
January 29th, 2007 1:46 pm

This is a completely unrelated topic, but do you guys think Shaq will eventually play 30 mpg for the rest of the year? I’m tempted to trade for him in a h2h league to lock down 3 cats at the expense of FT%, which I think would be well worth it.

03
Jeremy
January 29th, 2007 1:55 pm

Anyone hear news about Yao Ming or Paul Pierce? I’ve heard rumblings that Pierce may just sit out the rest of the year.

If that’s the case, I need to know now because amazingly Delonte West is still available and I’d need to grab him soon.

Any ideas for a 2-for-1 to free up a roster spot for Delonte West? Here’s my roster:

PG: Bibby, Andre Miller, Deron Williams, Mo Williams
SG: Kevin Martin, Joe Johnson
SF: LBJ, Josh Howard, Josh Smith, Pierce
PF: David West, Al Jefferson
C: Camby, Kaman, Yao Ming

None of the guys I have are very bad however, so it’ll be difficult to really do a 2:1 unless I get a star player in return. Thanks for any advice.

04
JM
January 29th, 2007 2:24 pm

Nice article. I agree with your choices.

In retrospect, during my draft I really wish I’d gone with Jamison or Terry over R.Jefferson in the 4th round and Hamilton or Miller over J.Nelson in the 6th round…

Other dependable and perennially underrated vets who are in the top 100 on the player rater:

Battier - #37 / 28
Rasheed -#41 / 38
J.Terry - #49 / 33
R.Lewis - #4 / 37

(Rankings are for a standard 9-cat league - per game followed by cumulative)

05
DM
January 29th, 2007 2:35 pm

Rich — Shaq will see his nightly 30 mpg, but it might not be until the end of February or so. That said, the Heat need to pick it up and they need Shaq to do that. I’m going to join the chorus in questioning whether he actually can, though. I think he might be (in the regular season, at least) a 16/8 player, although he looked good swatting some shots away in whatever game I saw him in recently.

I fully expect Yao to be back in March when people say he’s going to be back. Pierce, I’m more skeptical. I mentioned something in a recent column about how he may have already shut it down. Based on absolutely nothing, I say he comes back for a bit and then “re-aggravates” it and shuts it down as the C’s try to lock up Oden/Durant.

Jason Terry is another guy who could have easily been included in the column. I have no idea why I didn’t take him instead of Marbury, although Marbury has turned it around nicely in the past month or so.

06
January 29th, 2007 4:31 pm

I agree with Andre Miller. This is the 1st year in 4 seasons I didn’t draft him. He seems to fall every year because of his lack of three point shooting as a PG, but he’s always solid just about everywhere else.

I got a question, would you guys trade Lebron and Bibby for Kidd and Gasol? Standard league, 12 cats, including TOs, FGM, FTM, and 3PT%

07
January 29th, 2007 5:09 pm

Hey guys, is it time to sell high on Chauncey Billups? Ever since the C-Webb trade, Billups’ assists have been down from ~8 per to 6, and the trend is at 6 games now so it’s a quality-ish sample size.

Reason I ask is with the way Webber’s playing, especially his tendency for the extra pass, I think he’s eating up some of Billups’ assists and evidence of that would be that Mike Bibby’s never averaged more than ~6 APG as a King, although Bibby’s problem might be a combination of the King’s Princeton offense or a retrogressed inclination on passing.

Anyway, I’m pressed for more assists so might be time for me to package Billups for Steve Nash (need to keep the 3’s & assists).

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