We’re still a few weeks away from the trading deadline, but it’s never too early to start looking at the rumor mill. Here’s a little trick that I like to call the Pre-Emptive Strike. Basically, you go out and get a guy (or deal a guy) that is valuable already, but could see a big increase or decrease in value after the trade deadline if a few deals go down. A great case in point would have been Andre Iguodala. He was already plenty valuable, but if you foresaw Allen Iverson and Chris Webber packing their bags and went out and got AI2 at his November value, you got a hell of a steal. With that in mind, let’s look at some other pre-emptive strikers worth going after or getting rid of:
Rip Hamilton and Chauncey Billups
One of the worst-kept secrets around the NBA right now is the Piston’s desire to shore up their back-court. With Nazr Mohammed already having played himself out of the rotation, he’s now on the block and the target is a combo guard along the lines of Marko Jaric to come in and, well, do exactly what they signed Flip Murray to do in the offseason. I’m not suggesting that Marko Jaric is any good, but what I am suggesting is that if they go out and trade for someone, odds are that person will cut into the starter’s minutes in the backcourt. The Pistons, as I’ve said plenty of times before, are playing for the post-season, and if I was Flip Saunders I wouldn’t mind getting Rip and Chauncey some rest down the stretch as they gear up for the post-season. The backcourt mates currently each see right around 37 mpg, and if a deal goes down, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that drop a bit, as well as a minor drop in production.
LaMarcus Aldridge
Aldridge can probably be found on your wiaver wire right now, and there’s good reason for that - with Jamaal Magloire playing almost 20 mpg, Aldridge has struggled to get any significant court time. That could all change in the next month, as Magloire has been clamoring to be traded and the Blazers are looking to help him out with that request. His expiring contract makes him coveted by a number of teams (New Jersey? Memphis?) and while no one’s a lock to get moved, Magloire is looking pretty good right now. Aldridge has already been getting more burn this month (21 mpg vs 13 mpg in December) and if you’ve got a free bench spot it probably wouldn’t hurt to stash him away. With 30 or 35 mpg he could very well turn in close to a double-double with 1.5 or 2 blocks, and that’s a nice asset to have as we head down the stretch.
Dwyane Wade
Make no mistake - right now, Dwyane Wade is sitting pretty at the top of the average player rater, and at a solid #6 on the TPR. But let’s take a look at the facts:
- FACT #1: The Heat are looking desperately for a point guard. Sure, this has much more to do with Jason Williams and Gary Payton not being able to stay healthy, but Wade has been playing about 40 mpg this month, which is higher than his career average, and that’s bad because…
- FACT #2: He’s a little achy. He’s missed a couple games here and there and missed practice Monday and nearly didn’t play. Wade has been vulnerable to minor injuries his whole career, and he could be getting run down. Here’s an ominous stat: His FG% goes up with each extr5a day of rest he gets between games. In the second game of back-to-backs, he shoots just 44%. On the three occasions when he’s gotten 3+ days of rest, he shoots at a 60.7% clip. And if you don’t believe me, consider…
- FACT #3: Even Wade himself is looking for his teammates to pick it up. After the loss to the Knicks over the weekend, he said, “it’s getting to the point now on the offensive end it’s not working smooth. We’re relying too much on one or two guys.” As in, himself and maybe one other guy if anyone else decides to show up and play. Oh, which brings me to…
- FACT #4: Guys are going to start showing up to play. Eddie Jones has just reunited with his old squad and should at the very least log some minutes at the 2 and 3 and shoot some threes. Shaq is slowly but surely working his way into form. Antoine Walker and James Posey are both done being fat, at least for the time being. The Heat are just two games out of the playoffs, and so it’s not like the season is lost. As the guys start showing up around Wade, though, he may miss a few games here or there and see his production drop as well.
Jameer Nelson
Here’s someone we haven’t discussed in a while and he’s a great target right now. Nelson has been quietly and mildly disappointing this year, not really improving at all from last year and struggling at times to keep Carlos Arroyo off the court. Well, now Arroyo is struggling to keep himself ON the court, they’ve had to play Travis Diener on occasion, and there are rumors that one or more of the guards on the Magic could be on their way out of town as Orlando looks for a scorer or a big. Meanwhile, Nelson has quietly had his finest month of the season in January, setting a new high in points (15.2) and doubling his output in threes to 1.4 per game. Owners, who may have drafted Nelson as early as the 5th round (not that we necessarily had him there in our mock draft, but I’m just suggesting this could have happened) may be tired of seeing nelson in the low-90’s on the APR and looking to sell high on him, and I’d take that opportunity if offered. If Arroyo or any of the other glut of guards gets sent packing, Nelson will be in line for more minutes and more production.
