Archive for January, 2007
Lots of Mediocre Players Get Traded For Each Other

I hesitate to call yesterday’s deal between the Warriors and Pacers a blockbuster, mainly because I like to think that there has to be at least one excellent player involved in a blockbuster deal. There were just lots of players in this one. That said, there will certainly be fantasy implications, so let’s get right to it.

As if the Warriors weren’t a hard enough team to get a read on before, now they go and do this. They traded two guys that hadn’t been starting for them recently for two guys that were starting every game for the Pacers, so something’s gotta give.

Winner
Al Harrington – Harrington was playing fine in Indiana but should find the Warriors up-tempo style much more to his liking. He’s already averaging a (by far) career-high 1.5 3pg on 46% shooting, and you have to think that he’ll have the green light to launch from long range. If Matt Barnes can attempt 6 or 7 bombs each night, then why shouldn’t Harrington do the same? Harrington has a established himself pretty clearly as about a 17/7/2.5 over the past few years and not much should change except for the scoring. But if that scoring boost comes in the form of 3s, his owners will be plenty happy. Add in the fact that he’s really the only natural fit at the 4 on the team, and could even see some time in the middle, so his minutes should be pretty safe.

Holding Steady
Monta Ellis – Yes, Stephen Jackson’s arrival might result in Ellis’s return to the bench, but I still think that he will have plenty of fantasy value. He’s a favorite of Don Nelson’s and is simply a better player than Jackson and one of the Warriors best offensive options. And since Baron Davis going down is always a distinct possibility, he could slide right into the starting spot in that instance. Don’t panic with Ellis, but be ready for perhaps a slight dip in his numbers.

Sarunas Jasikevicius – I’ve always like the former Terp even if he has been a slight disappointment in the NBA. He once again won’t be anything more than a backup and shouldn’t be on any rosters now, but if there’s one thing that the Warriors have taught us it’s that you never know. It would take injuries – a couple, probably – to give Jasikevicius some value, but he hits 3s and can dish dimes, so if that opportunity presents itself, I feel confident he could capitalize.

Stephen Jackson – I don’t feel confident enough in Jackson’s abilities to put him in the winners column. Like Harrington, he might shoot enough extra 3s to give him some value, but even if he does take over the starting SG spot, Ellis will see plenty of minutes. Jackson can obviously play SF as well, but as is a continuing theme, there are plenty of people to compete with him for minutes there. He has more upside in Golden State than he did in Indiana, but I’m clearly more bullish on Harrington to benefit from the deal then Shooter.

Losers
Matt Barnes – It looks like Matt Barnes Wild Ride might finally be over. Not quite yet, mind you. But it might happen when Mickael Pietrus gets back. In January Barnes has realized that he is, in fact, Matt Barnes, shooting 38% from the field and 30% from long range. He’s wreaking havoc on my FG%, but at least he’s still contributing 2.1 3s, 1.8 steals and 7.1 boards per game. Along with 15.8 points and 0.6 blocks and that’s mighty fine, were it not for the shooting. Nelson obviously likes him and I do think that he has a chance to stay in the starting lineup for a while, but there are simply too many other players around. His best hope is that he sees plenty of minutes at PF, which isn’t entirely out of the question. I’m not cutting him yet and I’ll give him a bit of a leash, but one of the year’s best fantasy stories might have its ending soon.

Mickael Pietrus – Again, it’s a simple numbers game. Pietrus had been playing fairly well before spraining his ankle, but there are just too many players around, and that’s not even taking into account Jason Richardson, who should regain his starting spot and #2 option role once he returns from injury.

Now, for the Pacers, where it’s a lot happier.

Winners
Troy Murphy – All of you folks that have been holding on to Troy Murphy and hoping for the best, this is what you’ve been waiting for. It’s no sure thing, but Murphy should return to his old form once he gets situated in Indiana. But again, it’s no sure thing. The Pacers might not want to start Jermaine O’Neal or Murphy at center and might choose to keep Jeff Foster and O’Neal up front. In that scenario, Murphy would come off the bench. He needs a starting spot to be a sure-thing fantasy starter, although he should still see enough consistent minutes off the bench to be effective. But while we are all waiting for Murphy’s comeback, it’s worth remembering that, well, he’s not very good for fantasy purposes. He’s a very solid rebounder, but he’s also a big man who is a career 43% shooter and has never blocked a shot per game. Basically, don’t expect miracles from Murphy – just hope that he can return value as the 7th rounder you drafted him as.

Marquis Daniels – It’s hard to see who else would start at SG for the Pacers, although Daniels certainly hasn’t done anything to earn the position. Daniels became a favorite of mine after his end-of-season/playoff explosion a few years ago, but hasn’t shown much since then. His game isn’t especially fantasy friendly for a SG since he doesn’t hit any 3s at all and isn’t a big-time scorer. He can be a real asset in steals, though, if given the minutes. If you need help in that category, he could be worth a pickup right now. Don’t expect miracles, though, especially if the Mike Dunleavy/Corey Maggette rumors have any truth to them.

Ike Diogu – John Hollinger pointed out what should be pretty obvious to people who watch lots of hoops, and that’s the fact that Diogu is the steal of this deal. He’s a legit low-post scorer who shoots a high percentage from the field and the line. He has the potential to be a decent if not great shot blocker, too. His main problem is that he gets into foul trouble as well as anyone else in the league, which isn’t a good thing. He probably won’t see a ton of minutes, at least at first, since the Pacers have four solid bigs now, but if/when O’Neal goes down, don’t be surprised to see Diogu pick up a lot of the scoring slack.

Holding Steady
Danny Granger – The team trades away arguably it’s #2 and #3 options, but Granger doesn’t seem to be much of a beneficiary. Rick Carlisle likes to go big and there’s a chance he could start Granger at SG, but it’s more likely he will remain coming off the bench. He still has value in that role and should see his 30 mpg, but should remain somewhat inconsistent, making him a frustrating play in daily leagues, but a fine play in weekly leagues when the Pacers have a favorable schedule.

Mike Dunleavy – Like Granger, Dunleavy might be stuck in a bench role unless Carlisle wants to start him at SG. It should serve Dunleavy well to get away from Golden State, but he’s still Mike Dunleavy. He’s just a decent player, and he will probably help the Pacers more than your fantasy team. He can do a bit of everything, but doesn’t really excel at anything, and in fantasy that translates to “needs consistent big minutes to be worth your time.”

Loser
Jeff Foster – He could very well hold onto his starting spot, and Carlisle is a fan. But Murphy and Diogu are both fine rebounders and they bring far more offense to the table than Foster. He shouldn’t be on many fantasy teams as it is, and he’s an even shakier play now.

Buy, Sell or Hold: Detroit Pistons

Just when you thought the Pistons were done pairing up old Washington Bullets front-line teammates, they sign up Chris Webber, who played for a grand total of one season with Rasheed Wallace in Washington back in ‘95-’96.  Detroit has been a frustrating “great” team for fantasy owners, as only four guys have really been worth anything all year long.  Nazr Mohammed has flirted with fantasy value and has actually put up nice per-minute stats (20th in blocks per minute, 24th in rebounds, 47th in steals) but until now only the Big Four have been consistent enough to start on fantasy teams.  Will that change with Webber now in town?  Let’s see…

Chris Webber, PF - Why not start here?  There are a couple of things to consider with Webber, and DM covered some of them last thursday, but let’s revisit now that he’s in Detroit.  Concern number one has to be minutes.  There should be no illusions here - Chris Webber is here to help this team win a championship.  Championships are not won in February.  As long as the other four stay healthy, and Webber provides at least something, Detroit should run away with home court.  Even if they don’t, Flip Saunders will have to keep a tight leash on Webber’s minutes.  Why play the guy 35 mpg and wear him out by playoff time?  To expect any more than 30 mpg out of Webber given his health and the situation he’s in is probably unreasonable, but that could change with concern number two: His drive.  Webber was clearly unhappy in Philly, but you know what?  He was unhappy last year and still put up almost 20/10.  So I don’t think this is a Vince Carter situation here - I think Webber is legitimately hurt and legitimately old and is physically incapable of putting up 20/10 again or playing 35-40 mpg anymore.  Then, there’s concern number three: his fit with the club.  Webber showed in Philly that he can produce in multiple systems, and that should be the case here.  His assist rate fell while playing next to AI but this year he’s been back to his typical per-minute passing numbers, and that should keep up in the free-flowing Detroit offense.  Much like in Sacramento, he’ll be surrounded by four guys who can take and make 20-footers, so his assists will be there, though the points might not.  So we’ve established that he won’t play more than 30 mpg, he’s hurt, but he’ll pass well.  Let’s guess a line of 13/8/4 with a steal, a block, and decent %’s.  That’s utility player sorta numbers right there.  There’s one other wild-card here, though: Center eligibility.  Should he gain it, he’s definitely a top-20 center.  The rumor is that he’ll be a “center” here, and with Rasheed Wallace not qualifying at the five, he could certainly be eligible there after a few games.  I think that’s where his “sneaky” value lies, and that’s why I’m saying VERDICT: BUY.

Rasheed Wallace, PF - First of all, this whole starting/not starting thing with Rasheed is stupid.  He’s going to get his minutes either way, so this is a total non-issue.  What’s more of a concern with Sheed is his overall prodyction when he’s on the court.  His scoring has dipped to it’s lowest level in a decade, he’s not shooting from the arc as much and yet still has seen his FG% drop as well, and he’s hardly getting to the line at all.  His big-man numbers have increased though, which makes sense as he’s making up for the loss of Ben Wallace, and he’s rebounding at a career-high rate.  Wallace is going to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of Webber’s presence, though, because with Webber in the high post defenses will have to leave the lane open for Sheed down low, allowing for a lot of opportunities in the paint.  Fantasy owners are probably tired of Sheed’s lack of scoring and may see Webber as a potential minutes-taker for Wallace, but that’s silly - his minutes will come from other places.  Wallace may be available at a discount here, and it’s worth inquiring about.  VERDICT: BUY.

Tayshaun Prince, SF - Prince has very quietly and very subtly improved this year over last, hitting more threes, rebounding and blocking better, shooting better, and scoring better.  Prince will always be about where he is, though, and any changes will continue to be very subtle.  VERDICT: HOLD.

Richard Hamilton, SG - How about the career year that Rip Hamilton’s having?  The 23.3 points and 4.2 boards are both career highs.  But what’s getting lost in all this hoopla is that no one has benefitted more from Chauncey’s absence than Rip.  His 26.4/4.4/4.7 in January are ridiculous and bound to come down upon Billups’ return.  Further, you can bet that the vast majority of assists on Detroit will now be going to Billups and Webber, and if they do bring a Marko Jaric-type in to the fold, that means even fewer dimes for Hamilton.  Add this to the fact that Webber will at least participate in the offense as opposed to Dale Davis and Nazr Mohammed, and that means probably fewer shots here as well, though at a probably higher percentage.  This looks like a nice sell-high opportunity.  VERDICT: SELL.

Chauncey Billups, PG - He’ll be fine.  Maybe a very slight dip in assists, but he’s still the man who makes everything go here on offense.  He could also see a slight bump in threes as Webber is more likely to find him when he’s open, but again that should be insignificant.  He is what he is, he ain’t what he ain’t, he be back soon enough.  VERDICT: HOLD.

Everyone else: Listen, this isn’t like a trade.  Even in Webber only plays 20 mpg, those 20 mpg are coming away from guys on this roster that aren’t the big four, and they struggle to have fantasy value like it is.  If you’re holding onto Flip Murray, Nazr Mohammed, etc., you shouldn’t be.  VERDICT: SELL.

New! Updated! Top 20!

Another month, another NUT20.  Since we last checked in, four of our top-twenty guys have suffered injuries (Yao Ming, Rashard Lewis, Michael Redd, Chauncey Billups), one’s been suspended (Carmelo Anthony), one was traded (Allen Iverson), and two have had, um, “woman troubles” (Vince Carter and Jason Kidd).  Fantasy basketball: always interesting.  Anyhow, as always, last month’s rankings are in parentheses…

1. Shawn Marion, SF (1) - He’s down a little bit across the board this year and is STILL the third-highest guy on the player rater.  This is why he’s my number-one pick next year.

2. Kevin Garnett, SF (2) - His steals and assists are a little bit below his career averages, and he’s STILL the fourth-highest guy on the player rater.  You know what?  I hope he stays in Minnesota.  Unlike AI, who will dominate the ball and get his shots no matter where he goes, Garnett is much more passive offensively and may not demand the ball as much on a new team.

3. Gilbert Arenas, G (5) - Here’s something to consider - while Gilbert has supposedly been on the streak of a lifetime, his FG% is actually DOWN from last year, and he’s only averaging 0.4 more ppg than last year.  He was number 5 on the player rater last year and is at the top spot this year so far.  Playing great makes you a first round pick, but playing great CONSISTENTLY puts you in the top three.

4. Dirk Nowitzki, F (4) - You’d like to see those defensive numbers up a bit, especially with the fewer threes being attempted.  Nonetheless, Dirk and the Mavs are on a mission this year and he should be huge down the stretch.  The only concern is if they pull away and he gets to rest for the last few games of the season.

5. Kobe Bryant, SG (8) - He’s taking almost EIGHT fewer shots per game than last year, but his FG% and assists haven’t gone up as much as you’d think.  Maybe if he took more quality shots?

6. Dwyane Wade, G (7) - He’s actually #2 on the APR, but the injuries have held him back overall.  My favorite thing about Wade this year is that even with all the problems with him teammates he’s still turned himself into a top assists guy - his 8 per game are a career-high and eighth in the league.

7. LeBron James, SF (3) - So what’s up with LeBron?  Is he, a) tired because he’s played more games over the past three years than anyone his age due to the NBA schedule, Olympics, playoffs, etc … b) losing interest with a crappy team around him and all the attention going to Wade and now Arenas … c) trying to get his teammates more involved, or d) just playing 2 less mpg?  Who knows, but LeBron is looking more and more like a normal first round pick, and less like the second coming.

8. Steve Nash, PG (10) - I tried to keep Nash at 10 overall all year long, but he’s been playing too well for me to do that, and when you combine that with all the injuries this year, we’ll put him here.  He stillg dosn’t deserve another MVP trophy, though, I’ll tell you that much.

9. Ray Allen, SG (N/A) - After a minor false start, Allen’s been on fire since his return from injury, and with Rashard Lewis out another month at least, he may maintain the 30-point average he’s thrown up so far in January.

10. Jason Kidd, PG (17) - Is it possible for a thirty-three year old, 6′4″ point guard with creaky knees to average a career-high in rebounds?  I keep on wanting to count Kidd out, but he just keeps on ticking.  As long as you don’t expect much in points or FG% he’s as good a PG as there is.

11. Elton Brand, PF (12) - He’s not performing as well as last year, but that was to be expected.  Still, he seems to have recovered from his rough start and should perform like a first-rounder from here on out.

12. Allen Iverson, G (9) - If there’s one thing that I’m not a fan of, it’s uncertainty.  In all likelyhood, he’ll be top-10 even after Carmelo returns, but until we know that he’ll have to settle for a few spots outside of there.

13. Caron Butler, SF (N/A) - I’m hesitating here because Butler is a member of my hometown team AND my fantasy team, but he deserves this spot right now.  The points and boards are sweet - but the percentages are even sweeter.

14. Carlos Boozer, F/C (N/A) - He’s officially back, and better than ever.  Don’t let the lack of blocks turn you away - he more than makes up for it in other areas and is outperforming higher-ranked guys like Tim Duncan, Chris Bosh and Dwight Howard.

15. Chauncey Billups, PG (19) - He’ll be back in a few games, and it’s none too soon for the Pistons, who have gone 3-5 without him.  He may take a slight hit in production with Webber entering the fold but it shouldn’t be too noticable.

16. Andre Iguodala, SG (N/A) - The unquestioned winner of the AI trade, he’s put up 18.7/4.9/5.4 with 2.2 steals, .5 3’s and decent percentages over the last month.

17. Carmelo Anthony, SF (14) - 3 games left.  Same concerns as Iverson, but he should be fine and may even see a spike in FG%.

18. Jermaine O’Neal, F/C (N/A) - He’s been dinged up like he is every year and owners have to hold their breath every day when they check the injured list, but he’s only missed 5 games this year and is performing as well as you’d hope for.

19. Mike Miller, G/F (N/A) - He’s 5th overall over the last month, and while he’s already cooled down you gotta put a guy who puts in 23 3’s in three games in the Top 20.

20. As usual, we’ll leave this to you.  Who’s at 20?

A Good Day

Ah, a Monday with no work. What could be better? Maybe if that Monday was preceded by a Sunday on which I won $175 at blackjack in Atlantic City. Well hey, whaddya know! BV at least didn’t lose all of his money, so, y’know. And what could really make it better? How about if there were nine NBA games tipping off before 24 tonight? Yes, that would make it just about a perfect day. I don’t know about you, but I’ll be parked in front of my TV watching the Wizards and flipping through the rest of the action, so on this rare day of afternoon delight, here’s a preview of sorts of all the games tipping off by 2 p.m.

Sacramento vs. New York
Here let’s talk about a couple of point guards who people are probably kicking themselves if they cut bait on early in the season. We basically pleaded with people not to give up on Mike Bibby when things weren’t going well early in November. It’s one thing to cut bait on a one-year wonder like Mike James, but Bibby was just too much of a proven commodity to send to the waiver wire or trade low. We all knew his wrist was bothering him, but what was bothering his owners even more was that he was taking shots as if it wasn’t an issue. He launched nearly 6 3s per game in November, hitting on just 29% of them, and his overall FG% was hovering in the mid-30s. But the shooting was really the only thing that was different about Bibby’s game. His assists, boards, steals, FGA, FTA, turnovers – everything – were exactly where you would expect them to be. This was simply a case of shots not falling. So with the combination of his wrist improving and regression to the mean, it was safe to think that Bibby would return to being the Bibby we’ve known. And despite a couple of very rough outings in his past two contests, that’s been exactly the case. Even taking into account those last two in which he’s shot 7-for-25, Bibby has averaged 22.7 with 2.3 3pg on 48% shooting. Patience is rewarded. The same is true with Stephon Marbury owners. He looked even worse than Bibby early on because not only was he not producing, but he wasn’t even trying. But suspensions and injuries opened the door for consistently big minutes and that did the trick for Steph. Counting the brawl game, Marbury has averaged 21.3/3.8/6.8 with 2 3pg in his past 13. Those were the numbers that I was hoping for when I took him in the 4th round, although the 3s are a very pleasant surprise. The Knicks are 7-5 since the brawl and perhaps Isiah realizes that a shorter rotation leads to greater success. Patience with the proven stars, two fine lessons right here.

Utah vs. Washington
Instead of talking about a specific player on the Jazz, let’s give credit where credit is due to a recent nemesis of fantasy owners everywhere – Jerry Sloan. In the past few years we’ve often complained about his way of handling PT, especially with his best players, but there’s not too much we can argue with this year. Carlos Boozer is averaging a robust 37 mpg, Deron Williams is almost right there, and Mehmet Okur is just under 33. OK, maybe Okur’s number could be a bit higher, especially since he was at nearly 36, but Okur has been plagued by foul trouble in many games this season, registering at least 5 fouls in 10 contests, and picking up early ones in many others. The shooting guard position has seen plenty of turnover, but Boozer, Williams and Okur have started every game. So maybe Sloan really wasn’t jerking us around and he was just waiting until he had consistent, reliable options to reward PT as such. The Wizards haven’t been the same since Gilbert Arenas’s big birthday bash. I swear I didn’t do anything, I didn’t talk to a single player or really even make eye contact with anyone. I hope my presence didn’t throw them off. Arenas said his shoulder is bothering him and the FG% doesn’t lie – 31% in his last four, while still attempting 18.5 shots per game. That is flat out bad. BV and I were talking about who would be the #1 pick in next year’s draft on the way to AC yesterday and Arenas’s name is certainly in the equation, but it’s shooting like that that makes you wary of taking him at the very top. He’s basically putting up peak Allen Iverson numbers with tons of 3s, but 43% shooting on 20 or so shots per game will dig you a big hole there. That was the problem we always had with AI and just because Gilbert’s our boy we can’t overlook that. But, of course, we’re talking about negatives about being taken first overall. He’s the man, let’s just hope he finds his stroke soon.

Milwaukee vs. Charlotte
The Bucks, along with New Orleans and Boston, are one of those squads that has just been impossibly decimated by injuries. So where’s the silver lining here? It sure looks like Andrew Bogut. Playing on a team with shoot-first (and second) guys like Michael Redd, Mo Williams and Charlie Villanueva, it was tough for Bogut to get it going early on. In one 13-game stretch in December he attempted 10 or more field goals just once. And this is a guy who is shooting 56% on the season! Things are obviously different now. He’s attempted 14.7 in his last three contests and has become a one-man wrecking crew on the glass, as you’ve no doubt noticed. Guys like Charlie Bell and Earl Boykins are going to take more shots and probably hurt you (perhaps a lot) in FG%, but the opposite is true for Bogut. Yes, he had a 3-for-15 stinker, but he evened it out with 17-for-29 in those next two. His lack of blocks has been a huge bummer and may prevent him from ever being a true #1 center for fantasy purposes (at least Okur nails 3s), but Bogut should be in for a fine two weeks. Over in Charlotte, could Derek Anderson actually be worth a roster spot right now? It’s hard to argue with his last three outings – 18.3/3.3/2.0 with 3.7 3s and 2.7 steals. But the answer is still no. Fellow “wait-he’s-still-around?” journeyman Jeff McInnis is around to take some minutes now (as long as he’s correctly placed on the active roster), Gerald Wallace should be back within a week or so, and there’s still the on-fire Matt Carroll and Adam Morrison to deal with. Anderson was a decent option as recently as 2004 with Portland, getting just enough 3s, assists and steals to have value as a utility player in fantasy, and it’s nice to see the veteran come back from injury to show he can still play. But those 3s and steals are an anomaly and that’s where the value in his recent surge is coming from. You can find better options.

San Antonio vs. Chicago
As usual, there’s just not much to talk about with the Spurs. But let’s focus on Tim Duncan for a moment. Timmy is currently 14/26 on the player rater, which is about as good as can be. Yes, the FT% is killer – the owner with him in our league is in next to last in that category – but everything else is where it should be. Except the FG%, of course, which currently sits at a career high 55%. Granted, it’s coming on a career low 14 FGA per game, but that is still mighty impressive. And it’s also probably not going to last. Trading your top center is almost never feasible, but if there’s a team who is looking to land a superstar, it’s possible that Duncan can give you a great return right now. There are changes in the starting lineup for the Bulls, and it might be a double negative for fantasy owners. We always, always prefer starters to reserves, but it’s hard to argue with Ben Gordon’s production off the bench – 22.6 ppg, 1.9 3s, 46% shooting – and his numbers as a starter – 14.4 ppg, 1.0 3s, 43% shooting. He’s replaced Chris Duhon in the starting lineup for the time being and his first game against Memphis gave us hope that this weird trend would end. And I do think that will be the case. Gordon has always wanted to start and he will take advantage of this opportunity and put up fine numbers – meaning basically the same numbers he had been putting up. He was averaging more minutes as a reserve, so as long as he keeps getting those 32 mpg, he’ll be the top 50 player he’s been so far. Meanwhile, Andres Nocioni will head to the bench, and his owners can’t be happy with this. It’s possible he will thrive in the role like Gordon, and he’s been able to do so in the past, but he has been inconsistent to begin with and this certainly shouldn’t help matters.

Boston vs. Atlanta
OK, can’t promise I’ll be flipping to this one too often. What a bummer for Tony Allen. The guy was simply one of the fantasy stars of January with a ridiculous line of 20.8/5.2/3.4 with a whopping 4 spg while shooting 58.5%. And his season ends on a dunk after the whistle. Nobody on Boston will match those numbers, but it’s time to jump back on the Gerald Green bandwagon, at least until Paul Pierce returns. I like that Green will almost certainly give you at least a couple of 3s if he’s in the starting lineup. You can count on getting at least something out of him, as he’s hit at least two from downtown in 5 of his 6 starts. The other numbers will fluctuate – maybe some boards, maybe some steals, maybe a block or two – but with 35+ minutes, he’s a fine starting option. I picked up Marvin Williams a few weeks before he was ready to return and was looking forward to having him fill a utility slot for the last couple of months of the season. But then I traded him last week for a guy who might not even deserve to be on a roster right now, Mike James. Huh? Williams has looked just awful since his return. He can’t shoot, he’s turning the ball over a lot and he simply doesn’t look like he belongs on the floor. He’s still rusty from not being able to play due to his injury, but I decided to cut bait. He might still be a factor after the all-star break, but I figured I’d buy low with James and hope he has just one stretch of 7 or 8 fantastic games in him. I’ve at least seen him do that; not the case with Marvin.

Toronto vs. Philadelphia
OK, can’t say I’ll be flipping to this one too much, either. But if I do, it will be to watch Andrea Bargnani. The #1 pick is the #60 player over the past 15 days, right in between Luol Deng and Tayshaun Prince. He started just one contest in that time, but has seen at least 24 minutes in each game and has topped 30 in four of his last seven. Everyone wants to compare him to Dirk Nowitzki because they are both Euros, but you know who I see a bit of in his game? Rashard Lewis. Both guys are 6’10” and can seriously stroke it from long range. The main problem people have had with Bargnani is that they look at his numbers and say, “Well, he doesn’t really help anywhere.” And the same can be said for Lewis, as well, except in 3s. He’s merely pretty good in most other areas, but that was good enough to get him to be one of the top fantasy performers before he got injured. And Bargnani is looking like he could be a serious contributor in blocks, as he has 11 games this year with two or more swats. It’s time to scoop the kid up if he’s still sitting out there. I’d certainly rather have him than Marvin Williams at this point. Remember how unhappy I was when Andre Miller got traded to the 76ers? Well, I can’t much complain about the way things have gone so far. Yes, his FG% has dropped from 47% in Denver to 42% in Philly, as he has to take more (and more difficult) shots. But his 13.0/4.5/9.1 line in Denver looks awfully similar to his 13.6/4.6/8.3 line in Philly. Yes, I’m still worried about what might happen in March when things are really ugly and the team is in full-on play-out-the-schedule mode and the 76ers brass is salivating for Greg Oden. But once again, I might be convincing myself of troubles that aren’t really there.

Head-to-Head’s Up: 1/15-1/21

More than half the teams in the league have four contests this coming week.  However, nearly half the league’s players are injured right now.  Here’s a look at 1/15-1/21:

Four games: Atlanta, Charlotte, Cleveland, Detroit, LA Lakers, Miami, Milwaukee, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Sacramento, San Antonio, Utah, Washington.

Three Games: Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Golden State, Houston, Indiana, LA Clippers, Memphis, New Orleans, Orlando, Portland, Toronto.

Two Games: Denver, Seattle.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:

Last Buck Standing - Andrew Bogut, C:  Injuries… Michael Redd: OUT a month. Mo Williams: OUT 2-3 weeks. Charlie V: OUT indefinitely.  With 3 of their top 4 scorers currently out, Bogut and recently acquired Little Man, Earl Boykins, will have to pick it up on offense.  BV suggested “Buying” Bogut earlier this week, and I couldn’t agree more.  Just look at Milwaukee’s starting lineup tonight: Boykins, Bell, Patterson, Skinner, and Bogut. The former #1 pick only posted double-digit rebounds once in the first month of the season, but has grabbed an incredible 63 rebounds over his last four games.  Bogut will have no choice but to continue posting monster numbers over the next month, which should propel him to a strong second half as well.  If you have him, plug him in for four games next week; if you don’t, it’s probably too late to buy him.  Boykins, Bell, and Patterson are also solid starts over the next few weeks.

Last Celtic Standing (Gerald Green/Sebastian Telfair, G): Just when the Celtics were starting to get healthy upfront, their backcourt starts dropping like flies.  Pierce’s return date continues to be pushed back (he could miss another month), rising star, Tony Allen, was devastated by a season-ending ACL tear on his 25th birthday, and fragile Wally is sidelined again with a bum ankle.  So now Boston will be missing 3 of their top 4 scorers for some time as well.  Starting point guard Delonte West is also day-to-day with a bad back.  Enter G-Money and SeaBass.  20 and 21 years old respectively, they have not earned Doc Rivers’ confidence because of their shortcomings on defense, but the youngsters were thrust back into the starting lineup and will be seeing plenty of time on the court.  Also note rookie Rajon Rondo scored a season-high 23 points last night. 

Mikki Moore, FC:  There’s always a need for big men in fantasy basketball… so say hello to Mikki. He’s not young (31) and he’s never averaged more than 17 mpg in eight seasons.  If you take a look at the Nets’ current situation however, you’ll see why Moore has value right now… starting center Nenad Krstic is out for the season, Clifford Robinson is dealing with back problems and old age (40), and Jason Collins is the most inept starter in the NBA.  This leaves Mikki as the only able-bodied 7-footer on the team.  He’s averaging 14 and 10 on 65% shooting over his last 3 starts.  Those are certainly start-worthy numbers from a big man in just about any fantasy league.  Get him in your lineup for four games next week.

Keep on truckin’:

Andrew Bynum, C: Take a look at this rather telling statistic: Bynum averages 17 and 11 with 3 blocks anytime he plays more than 28 minutes in a game this season. In other words, Bynum + big minutes = Double doubles. He’ll get into foul trouble at times (as evidenced by his 5 fouls in 18 minutes last night), but the kid can play.  Lamar and Kwame are both still out, Junior Walton has been struggling, and even Kobe is a little nicked up. Keep the 7-foot teen in your lineups until further notice.

Jason Kapono, F: Shaq may be coming back, but Antoine Walker is still fat.  J-Kap is averaging 17/3/2 with 2.6 treys and 61%FG/80%FT in January. Smart start again for four games next week.

Sit ‘em down:

I know everyone is itching to get Denver’s newly acquired floor general, Steve Blake, in their lineups right away, but we should give him a week to adjust to his new digs.  The Nugs and Sonics each play only twice next week anyway, so you should keep the former Terp on your bench, along with the likes of J.R. Smith, Chris Wilcox, and Earl Watson.

C-Webb. C-Webb Get Bought Out. C-Webb Find a New Team. C-Webb Have Fantasy Value?

It was only right for the 76ers to bring an end to Chris Webber era. It wouldn’t have been right for the fans to have to suffer watching him drag that leg up the court while AI was running wild in Denver. It was clear they couldn’t trade him, so simply clearing him out was the least horrible scenario, which is how it goes with Billy King. So now C-Webb’s a free man, still getting close to $20 million this season and free to sign with another team for another few million. Maybe he’ll give that extra money to charity since he’s a good guy. Ha. Anyway, now that Webber is out of Philly, the big questions for us are – where will he land and can he be a fantasy asset again?

Those two questions obviously go hand in hand. Webber put up 20 and 10 last year, and you don’t just lose it that quickly. He looked bad at the beginning of the season, yes, but Webber can still put up numbers. But he needs to be featured and play lots of minutes to put up those numbers, and that doesn’t look like it will be the case on whatever his next team will be. Webber can basically choose which uniform he’ll wear next and he’s picked five finalists for his services – the Heat, Pistons, Mavs, Spurs and Lakers. We don’t often like to speculate on rumors here at FBB but since this situation is so cut and dry – he will go to a new team, extremely likely one of those, and that team won’t have to give up anything to acquire him. So let’s take a look at what might happen in those situations.

(On a side note, while Webber is going through this whole ordeal, how about fellow former Fab Fiver and Bullet Juwan Howard playing like its 1996 down in Houston? After tonight’s 23 and 11 he’s averaging 16.8/8.3/2.4 on 50% shooting in his last eight, numbers he’s never been able to put up while in Houston. And Dikembe Mutombo … man.)

Detroit
The Pistons seem to be the clear frontrunner for his services, so we’ll spend the most time on them. It makes plenty of sense, with Webber returning home to a team that has certainly lost something with the departure if Ben Wallace. Replacing him with Webber is ironic just about every level possible, but the Pistons need help in the front court. Nazr Mohammed hasn’t been all that bad when he’s been on the court, but Flip Saunders clearly doesn’t trust him, and after a stretch of four straight double-digit scoring games around Christmas, he’s done it just once in his last six contests including a donut in 11 foul-plagued minutes tonight. Meanwhile Rasheed Wallace and Saunders are in some sort of weird power struggle where Saunders benched ‘Sheed for being late to practice and ‘Sheed came back with, “Well maybe I want to come off the bench.” So Jason Maxiell seems to be the starting power forward for the time being. Antonio McDyess has been awful this year, as well.

The main positive about a move to Detroit is that the team has proven that it can have five reliable fantasy options. Not every team is built that way – on San Antonio, for example, nobody except Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili will have value. But the Pistons have done it for a few seasons now. I also see Webber fitting in rather easily. The Pistons main guys are all very experienced, smart players, like Webber. I can’t see him having much of a problem adjusting to playing with Chauncey Billups, Rip Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince and ‘Sheed. He stands a good chance of seeing at least 30 mpg in this environment, although that would seem more likely if Wallace moves back into the starting lineup, which should happen sometime in the not too distant future.

I do sense that going to Detroit could get ugly, though. Saunders doesn’t seem to have much control over his team and bringing in another very opinionated superstar could create tension if things don’t go well. But in the East, it would be hard for things not to go well. A starting five of Billups/Hamilton/Prince/Webber/Wallace isn’t out of the question, but even if they aren’t out there at the beginning of the game, that unit could be on the floor plenty. A Webber arrival might be more bad news for Wallace owners, and it also could mean that Prince’s modest bump in his numbers could fall. But it’s not like the Pistons would re-shape their team to fit C-Webb. The key would be Wallace. It would be hard to see them bringing both ‘Sheed and C-Webb off the bench, so if Webber could somehow work his way into the starting lineup, he would certainly have some value.

Miami
Webber would fit right in on a team that seems to be collecting players who peaked last decade. This would seem to be another decent fit for Webber. Alonzo Mourning is probably going to need some rest when Shaq gets back, so there could be some bigs minutes for Webber to grab. Antoine Walker and Udonis Haslem are around to compete with, but Webber on his game even at this point in his career is an upgrade over those two. Consistency isn’t likely to be a strong suit though, especially with Shaq around.

San Antonio
I really do think that the main three guys on San Antonio are the only ones who can have value on that squad when they are all healthy. And I don’t think Webber’s arrival would change that. And it’s hard to see San Antonio actually wanting to deal with Webber when they’ve mostly been looking for a swingman.

Dallas
Can’t see much of a fantasy role for Webber here, either. Dirk is the guy at the 4 in Dallas, so Webber would be in a bench role along with fellow crappy ex-Wizard Jerry Stackhouse. The Mavs are getting to be a bit like the Spurs in that the offense is highly regulated and regimented, with Dirk, Josh Howard and Jason Terry being the main beneficiaries, although Devin Harris has his usefulness as well. Webber would be a complimentary piece, not much more.

Los Angeles
Well, the Lakers certainly have fewer sure things than most of the teams above, and until Lamar Odom comes back there isn’t a clear #2. Again, though, Webber and Odom play the exact same position so that would seriously limit the minutes for C-Webb. Once Odom is back to full strength he’ll be out there 40 minutes per night again, and it’s possible they could man the 4/5 at times, and that would give them two of the best passing big men around.

It will be interesting to see if Webber can adjust to a secondary role, because that’s what he’ll have to do wherever he lands. Throughout his career he’s always been one of the main guys and has liked it that way, but now he’s seeking teams on which there are plenty of established stars. He doesn’t seem to be the kind of guy who would gladly accept a 20 mpg off the bench role, but on any of the above teams that might be what he’s best suited for. It’s always easy to get excited and hope for the best in an unknown situation like this, and if you’ve been holding onto Webber for a while you’re obviously going to continue to do so. But it will probably take him at least a few games to get acclimated to a new team, and by that point it will have been more than a month since he’s helped your team at all. And think of all the people you could have snagged on the free agent list during that time. So just hope the end result is worth the wait.

Buy, Sell or Hold: Milwaukee Bucks

Despite having Mark Stein’s first-trimester MVP, the Bucks find themselves at just 16-18, in last place in the Central division and about to face four-to-six weeks without said MVP.  Already missing Bobby Simmons and Charlie Villanueva, and possibly missing Mo Williams, it may finally be time for FBB’s favorite NBA player who’s not on the Wizards to finally take over like we all know he can.  Without further ado…

Michael Redd, SG
Redd’s played in at least 75 games each of the last four years, so odds are he’ll come back from this injury just fine, but knees are always tricky.  Still, the Bucks will be in the hunt for a playoff spot and so Redd should be back in action as soon as possible.  He was having arguably the best year of his career and this is a big loss for his owners, but you’re never going to get full value for him.  You’re just going to have to live with this one … right DM?  VERDICT: HOLD.

Mo Williams, PG
Not only are we NOT doctors here at FBB, but I’m having a horrendous year in terms of guessing which guys are gonna be hurt.  So please don’t put any stock into what I have to say: I think Williams is a great buy right now.  Even if he misses a game or two with a bad shoulder, he’s going to be a major weapon fort his team until Redd returns.  You might be able to catch an owner worried about the shoulder who can’t afford another injured player, and get Williams at a pretty big discount.  If that’s the case, by all means do it. WIlliams was apparently schedule for an MRI on tuesday so we should know more shortly. VERDICT: BUY.

Ruben Patterson, SF
Last week I discussed guys who have been undervalued this year and skipped right over Patterson (though I managed to include Luke Ridnour.  Sweet.).  Sure his FT% has been awful, but the facts are the facts - he’s in the mid-90’s on the APR for the year, which makes him ownable and startable in almost all leagues.  Now that’s Redd’s out for awhile, Patterson should be even more valuable, and I’d be surprised if he didn’t come in somewhere around 70, at least, on the APR for the next month.  VERDICT: BUY.

Charlie Bell, PG/SF
After Redd got hurt over the weekend, I quickly snatched up Bell, and he rewarded me with a 3-12, 1 board, 2 assist, 8 point effort Monday.  Thanks, Chuck!  Still, he should be a nice source of threes and steals while he’s depended on to fill some of Redd’s production.  Bell was a borderline bench guy before now, and he should probably be starting in leagues at this point, but I’d be wary of over-buying here.  He was already seeing 35 mpg in the month of December, so he won’t benefit from a big jump in PT.  The jump in production is going to have to come from being more active whlie he’s on the court, and there’s not much evidence to say that he’ll do that.  VERDICT: HOLD.

Steve Blake, PG and FBB all-time favorite
The undoubted non-game related highlight of the NBA season thusfar was sitting at the Visitor’s tunnel at the Wizards vs. Bucks game in November and getting to slap hands with Blake (note: NBA players do fist-bumps, not high-fives.  Something to keep in mind).  Anyhow, Blake as had a down year thusfar but filled in nicely for Williams in the second half on Monday’s game, coming through with 11/5/7 with 3 3’s and his third block of the year.  As much as we love him, Blake is really no better than a Utility guy even when he’s getting 25-30 mpg.  His FG% is awful, but he’ll contribute minimially in threes and assists.  If Williams is down for more than a few games, Blake is worth a roster spot but I would fall over yourself rushing to pick him up.  VERDICT: HOLD.

Charlie Villanueva, F
The news hasn’t been good for Villanueva, who’s out for another week after receiving a cortisone shot in his shoulder, and still might require season-ending surgery.  If you’re desperate for a roster spot Villanueva is probably not worth holding on to at this point - he’s not performing “any basketball activity” during the next week so it’s not like he’s going to jump right back in to a starting role.  If you can manage to hold out for another week until we get another report, I don’t blame you, but don’t let him be a detriment to your flexibility in picking up someone who can help your team right now.  VERDICT: SELL.

Andrew Bogut, C
You know, we pegged Bogut in the 70’s on our overall rankings in the preseason, and he’s sitting at 76 on the APR, so why does it feel like he’s been a disappointment so far this year?  He’s not asserting himself on offense, doesn’t block shots nearly as much as a guy his size should, and while he’s supposedly a deft passer, his assists aren’t enough to really make an impact.  While by all accounts, he had a horrendous game against Denver on Monday, the number that I’m most interested in is the 15 shots he took, a new season high, in just 25 minutes of action.  With all of his fellow starters falling down around him, Bogut may just have a chance to establish himself as an offensive go-to-guy.  There’s been a lot of attention paid to the Bucks backcourt, but it might be that the biggest benefactor of this mess is standing right under the basket.  VERDICT: BUY.

On Shaq

Always one of the most controversial picks in fantasy drafts, Shaquille O’Neal is due back from knee surgery at some point this month, and the other day I found myself wondering - at this point in his career, is Shaquille O’Neal even ownable, much less startable?  I was always extra reluctant to own the Big Aristotle - category killers usually have no place on my fantasy teams - but still, you could always make the case that all of his other attributes made up for the kill in FT%.  But now, with the injury problems, the severly reduced numbers, and questionable motivation for a guy who desperatedly needs motivation, the question is still there.  Does Shaq belong on a fantasy roster?

I had a tough time answering, so let’s take a look at Shaq and figure out if one of the most dominant players of the past 15 years can be even moderately effective for a fantasy team again.

First of all, let’s take a look at the declining production, and you know what?  I learned something today.  Let’s look at the last 2 years of Shaq and how they measure up against one another.  I’m not going to incorporate his 4 games from the beginning of the year that he played on a bum knee, as it’s not a big enough sample size and probably an unfair comparison.  So anyhow, here are his per 30 minute stats from his first two years in Miami:

‘04-’05: 20.2/6.2/2.4 with 2.0 blocks, .4 steals, 60/46 FG/FT%.
‘05-’06: 19.7/9.0/1.9 with 1.8 blocks, .4 steals, 60/47 FG/FT%.

What I learned today, as I prepared to talk about how steady Shaq’s decline has been, is that he really didn’t decline all that much from 2 years ago to last year.  Sure, he missed 14 more games last year than the year before, but the per-minute stats are pretty much right on line.  In fact, almost all of his statistical decline from the past few years (going back to his last year in LA) can be attributed to his decline in minutes.  So maybe from a performance level, Shaq can be where he’s been over the past few years, which has landed him at 94 (last year) 58 (two years ago), and 66 (three years ago) on the APR.

So, as Hubie Brown would say, we know that Shaq can be an effective fantasy player if he’s going to play 30 minutes a game.  What we don’t know is if he’ll get those 30 mpg.  Among the factors to consider:

1. How quickly he can bounce back from surgery.  Last year Shaq missed 18 games early in the season, but only took three games of part-time work to get back into his 30 mpg action.  His last year in LA, he was out for about a dozen games in the middle of the year with a calf injury, but took only one game of part-time work before really getting his game back.  So, what we know is that it won’t take him long, once he returns, to start playing at full strength.

2. How realistic Miami’s chances of getting into the playoffs are when he comes back.  Right now the Heat are only two games out of the playoffs and assuming that Shaq returns sometime this month, they won’t be much more than 5 games back, right?  Which is easy to make up with half the season left.  (On a side note, if the season ended today, ALL FIVE Central division teams would be in the playoffs.  Crazy!) Anyhow, Shaq will probably be playing his full 30 mpg as long as the Heat have a chance of salvaging their season.

3. How he responds to his new coach.  I’m just kidding, of course.  Shaq makes the decisions here, not whatshisname.

So it looks like as long as the Heat are competitive, Shaq will see his minutes.  He should maintain 30 mpg and end up somewhere similar to last year on the APR.  Let’s assume he does slip a little bit, and ends up somewhere between 110 and 120 on the APR.  Add in the fact that he’s a center, and Shaq is definitely worth owning in most leagues and he’s startable in deeper ones.  I will say that I thought, going into this article, that it would be a little more the other way on this one, but I guess you can’t count out the big guy just yet.  There are, however, two caveats, one small and one big:

Caveat #1: Just a minor one.  We don’t talk about turnovers very much here on FBB because our league doesn’t use them but it’s also worth mentioning that Shaq’s 2.8/game last year was the worst in the league among centers.  So, if you’re in a league that counts turnovers that’s another big strike.

Caveat #2: Oh, and this one’s a biggie.  Here’s a little trick you can do on Basketball Monster when you’re trying to figure out if you should punt a category.  Run the player rater, but take out the category you’re punting.  Then, see which guys take a huge leap from their regular spots - those are the guys you should be targeting.  Like I mentioned, last year when you account for FT% as well as everything else, he comes in at 94 on the APR.  But drop the FT% and guess where he is.  I would think maybe somewhere in the 30’s or 40’s, but he came in at THIRTEEN.  Ahead of first round picks like Dirk Nowitzki, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce!  If you’re punting FT%, Shaq is a no-brainer, must-own in all formats.

What’s That Roar?

First off, yes, of course I was at Gilbert Arenas’s big 25th birthday bash on Friday night. What, you think Gilbert would have a party and not invite me? Come on! My plan to hit on chicks by telling them I was Abe Pollin’s grandson didn’t go too well, but I did smoke a blunt with The Game, so it wasn’t a total loss.

Anyway, we all know how injuries and trades can alter the fantasy values of player on entire teams, but a coaching change can have just as much of an impact. We’re seeing an obvious example of that down in Memphis, where Mike Fratello was shown the door and Tony Barrone has taken over and implemented a freewheeling style of play focusing on a few top options. Let’s take a look at some of the most fantasy relevant players on the Grizzlies and see what their performances over the first five games of the Barrone hint at for the rest of the season.

Mike Miller
We were fans of Miller coming into the season, even though he never really took off in any of his first seven years in the league. Someone had to score with Pau Gasol out to start the season and Miller was really the only option, so we had him pegged as a fifth rounder. He probably slipped past the fifth in most drafts and has been perhaps the best value pick so far. Don’t look now, but he’s at #12 on the player rater. Sure, that drops to 31 on the APR, but as I’ve been saying a lot lately, good health counts for even more this season. Miller had a shaky November but caught fire from deep in December and clearly established himself as the Grizzlies top offensive option. Now that Gasol is back he’s sharing the load, but a clear hierarchy has been established with Miller and Gasol as the Grizzlies main offensive weapons. In Barrone’s five games as coach, the two have been the Grizzlies two highest scorers in four of the five games, with Miller scoring 24 in the other contest. This is one of the best signs for Miller going forward, as players who have a clear role as a top option have the most consistent fantasy value. The Grizzlies were a team without an identity, and it seems they may have found it early on in the Barrone era. It’s a team that will push the tempo and try to beat you with Gasol on the inside and Miller gunning away from the outside. Miller is averaging nearly 10 attempted 3s per game over his last eight contests, a simply ridiculous number, but any night in which he attempts 5 or less qualifies as an aberration these days. Miller’s seemingly been waiting his whole career to become a go-to guy and he finally has the chance.

Pau Gasol
Barrone’s takeover has coincided with Gasol finally playing enough minutes to make a real impact. Fratello was very slowly easing Gasol back into the flow of things, probably too slowly for Gasol’s owners who waited for the first month and a half for him to return. He averaged just 23.3 mpg in right games under Fratello, but has upped that number to 33.8 under Barrone. That’s still nowhere near the 39.2 he averaged last year, but it’s still enough for him to do plenty of damage, especially in the new high-octane offense. He’s averaging 23.0/8.6/2.2 with 2.4 blocks in the past five, numbers that would make him a top 20 player were he to maintain that pace all season. Nobody likes to spend a pick on an injured player on draft day, and when Gasol went in the 7th round in my league, I thought it was a few rounds too early. There was a lot of hoping for best case scenarios, but it seems those scenarios might have actually played out. Gasol was blossoming into an elite player last season and he’s right in the middle of his prime. It is always worrisome when big men have feet problems, and Gasol’s two injuries over the past few years are indeed similar. His owners will probably never feel completely comfortable with him, but dealing him for anything less than a third round value at this point is selling too low.

Rudy Gay
Gay was FBB’s favorite rookie coming into the season but he hasn’t shown much more than a few flashes. BV talked about him right before Barrone took over, but it’s been more of the same for Gay over the last five contests – one standout game, a couple of almost mediocre performances and a couple of stinkers. Gay’s total lack of consistency has made him of very little value so far this year and he remains someone who just can’t be trusted on right now. Since he’s starting now he’s worth owning in just about all leagues, as his upside as a scorer who can contribute in steals and blocks could give him plenty of value. A reason for optimism is that Barrone has seemingly phased out the Joneses, Eddie and Dahntay, as Eddie has played 5 total minutes in the past two contests and Dahntay went from starting and playing 41 minutes on Dec. 18 to going scoreless in 8 minutes yesterday. I’d hang in there with Gay, at least as the high upside bench player. Nobody thought the transition would completely smooth, as he had an unpolished game coming out of school. His shooting must improve if he’s to be helpful to fantasy teams, though. We’ve all heard plenty about Grizzlies management wanting to see more of the rookie and Barrone seems at least willing to give him a chance to prove he belongs out there. He’ll be too inconsistent for some owners, but it all starts with minutes, and he looks like he’ll be seeing a few more of those these days.

Damon Stoudamire
I’ve always been a Stoudamire fan, but he’s simply past his usefulness in fantasy leagues. Yes, he’s been impressive the past few games, averaging 16.0/2.3/9.7 with 2.3 3s and 1.7 steals. Those are obviously fantastic numbers. But he did that in just 25 mpg, and he simply will not keep up that pace. And he’s unlikely to play more minutes than 25 as long as Chucky Atkins is around. He hasn’t topped 40% shooting since the 01-02 season, and even if he’s not taking too many shots, he can do some serious damage there. When he was playing 35 mpg and could accumulate enough numbers to balance it out, he was worth playing. Now he’s just not worth your trouble, recent hot stretch or not.

Stromile Swift
Oh, like you even need to ask. If he was starting, then maybe – maybe – you could talk me into it. But depending on a perennial tease to produce while coming off the bench is just silly, and you know it. The numbers in the past five look fantastic, especially for teams in need of a center (and there aren’t many that don’t need help in the middle). In 32 mpg he’s averaging 15.4 and 8 with 1.8 blocks on 58% shooting, the kind of numbers we’ve been deluding ourselves into thinking he could producer for the last five years. But he’s still the same player and he’s had stretches like this before. Alexander Johnson isn’t anywhere near fantasy relevance, but the Grizzlies like what they have there and he’s playing well enough to keep starting and getting his 20-25 mpg. As long as he stays at that number, Swift won’t be of use to anyone.

Head-to-Head’s Up: 1/8-1/14

A fairly busy week… Here’s a look at 1/8-1/14:

Four games: Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Milwaukee, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Portland, Toronto.

Three Games: Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Cleveland, Indiana, LA Clippers, LA Lakers, Memphis, Miami, Minnesota, New Jersey, Orlando, Phoenix, Sacramento, San Antonio, Seattle, Utah, Washington.

Two Games: Golden State, New York.

Get Chris Bosh back in your lineups ASAP if you haven’t already done so.  He posted 26/14/4 and 2 blocks in his first game back from injury.
I don’t really want to comment on Golden State’s Matt Barnes (23.3ppg, 8.2rpg, 3apg, 4.3 treys, 1.7 thefts over last 2 weeks) but I’m hating DM who picked him up in our league.
Mike Bibby owners were delighted to see the guard breakout with a season high 38 points on 12 for 21 from the field (and 16 trips to the charity stripe) last night.
Also, FYI: Arenas and Caron Butler are ranked #1 and #2 overall (basketballmonster.com) for the last two weeks of action. The Wiz have won 6 of 7 and 12 of their last 15 games.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:

Tyson Chandler, FC: Say what you want about the former Baby Bull, but he has certainly found his niche in Oklahoma City.  Chandler has appeared in all but two games this season after being plagued by various injuries in recent years.  He’s also averaging career highs in minutes (31.9), rebounds (11.2), and FG% (62.4%).  Chandler is off to a good start in the New Year with 31 boards and 4 blocks in two games.  Make sure he’s in your lineup for the Hornets’ four matchups next week (LAC, @ATL, WAS, @MIL).

Andrew Bynum, C: The kid just turned 19 in October and is the Lakers’ starting center.  He showed some flash earlier in the season when he was thrust into the rotation and now has the opportunity to reclaim the starting gig with Kwame out for a month.  With 30+ minutes Bynum could average 12/10 and a couple swats a night over the next few weeks.  If your second center is Zaza, Frye or Wilcox, I’d say Bynum should get the nod over them.

Jason Kapono, F: The chump from UCLA is actually getting burn for the Heat as of late. Funny thing is he’s getting PT at the expense of James Posey and Antoine Walker who were inactivated for failing to reach a Janurary 1st deadline to get their body fat to 8% or less.  Posey claims that he’s currently at 9% and should be back in no time, but I think we can assume ‘Toine’s fat ass will be out for the year if the Heat actually enforce this rule. In the meantime, Kapono has started the last 3 games and is averaging 16/3/2 with 2.5 treys and a steal over his last six.  If you need help from downtown start J-Kap for three games next week.

Randy Foye, G: Last week it was Roy, now it’s Foye.  DM talked yesterday about Mike James’s struggles, while at the same time rookie Randy Foye appears to be earning the trust of coach Dwane Casey.  Foye has seen his minutes increase from 15mpg in November to 20mpg last month and to a season high 41 minutes in Wednesday’s OT win over the Spurs.  With his increased role, Foye has scored in double digits in 8 of his last 11 games, averaging 13/2/2 48/90% over that span. He’s got great all-around game and can score from anywhere. If Foye could crack Minnesota’s starting lineup or find a way to get 30 minutes a night he’d be an everyday fantasy starter.  He may not be worth starting in shallow leagues, but he could be a good plug-in if you need a utility guy.  The T-Wolves face the Clips, Griz, and Nets next week.