Yesterday BV took a look at some underappreciated players and today we’ll keep the prefix and look at some underachieving players. These are guys that were taken in the first half of my draft and haven’t come close to living up to expectations, whether it’s due to injures or simply underperforming. Let’s break it down and try to give some advice going forward.

Andrei Kirilenko
I’ve always been one of the biggest AK47 supporters, but at a certain point you just have to face reality. Kirilenko is simply not a first-round fantasy talent. Or a second round one, for that matter. Those blocks and steals are just so easy to fall in love with, and it was easy to make excuses for him the past couple years as injuries really derailed him. The thinking that he was still young enough to combine his rare skill set with good health and standard improvement over age into a true fantasy stud. It’s not that he hasn’t blossomed into an offensive force, it’s that he’s truly and remarkably regressed, or at least deferred. In his last fully healthy season he averaged 16.5 ppg, and he was right around 15.5 the past couple injury-plagued seasons. Perhaps we should have seen the signs last year when his scoring averaged dipped ever so slightly despite averaging five more minutes per game. But it still wouldn’t have prepared us for this year, where he’s averaging a mere 6 FGA per game. With all the scoring that’s going on this year, you simply can’t be a top fantasy player with that little scoring. Ben Wallace basically maximized the value of a non-scorer, and he was never more than a mid-to-late second round pick at very best. Kirklenko sure looks like the 4^th option – at best – on this Utah team and while he doesn’t seem thrilled about it, he’s going about his business being a defensive stopper who still racks up the blocks, if not necessarily the steals. I still see better things for him in the coming months and expect to finally see a 20-point game, and an injury to one of Utah’s big threats might change this outlook. Then again, he’s probably more likely to go down than anyone else. He’s still got plenty of value, probably a top 40 player, but if you can somehow get a solid third rounder for him, it’s probably time to do it.

Jason Richardson
Of the many injured players, I think Richardson is the toughest call when it comes to holding or dropping. J-Rich was a truly great fantasy performer last year, but was clearly bothered by his knee for the entire season up to breaking his hand the other night. The closest he got to a groove was the end of November when he averaged 20.3/5.3/5.3 with 2.7 3s, which was close to what he averaged last year. He played a combined 89 minutes in the last two of those games, managed only 28 combined in his next two, missed the next eight and hit double digits in only two of seven after that before going down with the broken hand. Perhaps this time off will let Richardson’s knee finally heal, but there’s no way of knowing for sure. If you want to look for a positive, though, that’s not a bad one. His recovery time is set for at least one month, but it sure seems like it will be closer to two, meaning he might only be back for the final month and a half. Teams that have Richardson are likely struggling in the standings since their third or fourth round pick has given them basically nothing over the entire season, so the temptation to cut him is probably high, and if you need immediate help, it’d be hard to blame you. But for a solid team looking for a guy who can help at the end of the season, J-Rich would be a great person to grab. We know he’s capable of being a top 30 player. We know the Warriors system lends itself to players having tons of value. Matt fucking Barnes, anyone? (Seriously, what the shit? He was as 10-day contract as they come for so long. Unreal. Anyway…) We know that Don Nelson will just throw people out there for huge minutes, and if Richardson says he’s good to go, why wouldn’t he do that? Kelenna Azubuike wasn’t even on the team a few days ago, doesn’t even have a page on Yahoo, and he started and poured in 15 last night. Basically, it’s a cut him if you really have to, but don’t expect to be getting him back if you do.

Mike James
We all knew it was going to be downhill for James, but this was about the worst that could be expected. Last night might be a new low as James put up a pathetic 6/2/1 in 16 minutes and was rendered obsolete by rookie Randy Foye who scored 19 in 41 minutes in a big OT win against the Spurs. It looked like James might have turned a corner at the beginning of the month, and he’s had a couple of random big games, but he’s reached double digits in just 4 of his past 11 games. He’s at #103 on the APR, nestled in between a couple of other very disappointing mid-round picks in Larry Hughes and Richard Jefferson. James is sitting out whole quarters and has no permanent place in the rotation as he battles not only Foye but the surprisingly solid (and now banged up) Marko Jaric for minutes. James is certainly a cut candidate right now. I can’t stand inconsistency and that’s been the only thing James can be counted on for this season. It’s about time to cross last year’s stat line out when looking at James going forward. Before that free for all in Toronto he was a 12 points in 25-30 minutes guy who’d give you a few 3s and steals. And whaddya know, he’s at 12 ppg in 29 mpg with 1.0 3s and 0.8 spg this year. I wouldn’t be cutting him for Foye, and probably not for Damon Stoudamire based on one big game, but with all the random talent this year, there might very well be someone better than James out there. This isn’t at all like the case of Mike Bibby who had as perfect a track record you could want and just wasn’t getting shots to fall. This is just James playing like, well, Mike James.

Peja Stojakovic
Remember a month and a half ago when I debated who was more valuable, Stojakovic or Caron Butler? Wouldn’t make for quite as an intriguing column these days, huh? Unless you are playing in a seriously deep league or have tons of bench spots, Stojakovic has got to be cut. Because there are so many injuries, it means that most teams are holding onto an injured player or two, so roster spots are at a premium. For as long as Stojakovic is going to be out, it has to be a real superstar, such as Rashard Lewis, who is an absolute no-brainer to hold on to during his two month absence. All the signs are negative for Peja – major back surgery, not even attempting to give a timetable for return, just signed a big contract so team won’t want to rush him back, especially since they’ll be far out of the playoff picture by then. Best case scenario would seem to have him back for the last month or so, but it seems like we really may have seen the last of Peja this season. Darius Songaila seems to have undergone a similar operation, and as a Wizards fan I’ve been following his progress and he had surgery before the season started and they’re saying that he might start practicing after the all-star break. So there’s one example. There are just too many guys out there to bother holding onto a player without huge upside who seems to unlikely to return.

Chris Webber
Honestly, if C-Webb was sitting there on waivers right now I wouldn’t put a claim in for him and I’m not sure I’d even pick him up as a free agent. Yeah yeah, how the mighty have fallen and all of that, but the thing is he was plenty valuable last season, so it becomes even more frustrating. But he does look washed up, even if he is only giving half effort when he bothers to suit up. It’s almost impossible to see Webber going anywhere with that batshit insane contract and his lackluster game. I mean, Webber’s status when it comes to a trade is probably that rarest of categories – “Not even Isiah.” So if he decides he wants to play again this year it’ll be for the Sixers, who might not even want him back. They can let players who might be a part of the next winning Sixers team get experience trying to carry a team, and while it’s no sure thing the Sixers are actually better with Webber in the lineup, losses equal a better chance at Greg Oden or Kevin Durant. Another reason to stay away from Webber is that brutal shooting percentage. He’s not quite at 39% on the year, which is obviously putrid, even more so from the PF spot. It’s not like this is anything new either, since he hasn’t topped 43% since 02-03. Also, there’s just something icky about having Webber around. I know I know, that’s not so easy to quantify, but he’s a guy who will surely perform at his best when on your bench then quit on you once you start him. Those guys suck.

Charlie Villanueva
It seemed like such an obvious breakout campaign for Villanueva, and then he averaged 18.8/10.8/2.5 with 1 3 and 1.3 steals on 52% shooting. Then he had a few off games, got hurt, rushed back, got benched, saw his team get hot as his role decreased, and now he seems to be hurt again as he was in a suit on the sidelines last night. His owners were probably very happy when he ended up missing only three weeks after a four-to-six week estimate for elbow ligament damage, but it seems like that wasn’t such a great decision right now. He looked very awkward with that bulky harness over half his body, although his rate stats didn’t really suffer too much over the month of December. Villanueva’s situation really is the worst because not only did he get injured but multiple players have become factors during his downtime. Charlie Bell, Ruben Patterson and Brian Skinner are all locked into the Bucks’ rotation right now, so it seems unlikely that Villanueva will be able to see serious minutes for a long while. He’s the type of player who looks for his shot enough to be able to have value even with a regular 30 minutes, but he’s a long way from there right now. Right now I’d hold onto him just to see what his deal is, see whether he’ll be out for any extended period of time, and then proceed from there. His upside is still very nice, but he has lots of hurdles to clear right now.

We talk a lot about the guys that fill out the top of your fantasy lineup, and we also talk a lot about the guys that could or should be getting playing time or could see their values change drastically.  Today, though, I’d like to talk about some of the unheralded fantasy guys, those middle-of-the-rankings guys who don’t get much press but are really more valuable than we give them credit for.  A lot of fantasy leagues are won in the 5th-10th rounds of the draft, but more importantly a lot of drafts are LOST during these rounds because of poor risks.  Here are guys who are paying dividends for their owners:

Josh Childress, GF, Atl
Now that he’s back from injury, it’s time to face the facts and give Childress his due.  While we talk plenty about Josh Smith and Marvin Williams, the fact is that Childress is a legit fantasy starter who’s improved each year he’s been in the league.  It’s tough to take a guy who only scores around 10-12 ppg and doesn’t dominate anywhere, but the facts are that Childress contributes in both defensive categories, chips in an occaional three, and shoots well over 50% from the field.  He was on and off of rosters all of last year but when it came down to it, he was 84 on the player rater and those that just plugged him in and played him all year got a fine mid-late round value out of him.  I made the bonehead move of picking up and then dropping Childress a week ago when he took an extra day or two coming back from injury and boy am I regretting it now.  He’s not as valuable as his current mid-50’s on the APR suggests, but he’s also going to land no lower than the mid-70’s when the season’s over.  He should be owned in all leagues and is a starter in most.

Rafer Alston, PG, Hou
Alston gets a bad rap because of his FG% and that’s no joke - 37% ain’t pretty no matter how many shots you’re taking.  But once you get past that, Alston is as solid a PG2 as they come.  Since he started getting over 30 mpg four seasons ago, he’s always put up at least 1.6 threes, 1.4 steals and 4.5 assists.  And as bad as his 37% FG% is, keep in mind that it’s not as damaging as Tim Duncan is from the FT line.  Sometimes (in fact, most of the time) the most important number is the average player rater.  Here’s how it’s gone for Alston since ‘03: 88, 54, 70, and 69 this year.  He’s also only missed one significany chunk of time over that span.  For an unreliable a player as he is, Alston is pretty consistent and is probably undervalued in a lot of leagues because of his appalling FG%.

Luke Ridnour, PG, Sea
A lot of folks were down on Ridnour going into the season, and with good reason.  He hadn’t shown much improvement from year two to year three, and Earl Watson was threatening to take away his PT.  But here were are 2 months into the year, and Ridnour is sitting pretty in the 40’s on the APR.  Granted, some of this is due to the fact that Rashard Lewis and Ray Allen have both missed serious time so far, but Ridnour has also improved his shot.  After hitting on only 28% of his three’s last year, he’s rebounded to a career high 41% from the arc, which has played a large part in his also career-high of 47% from the field overall.  Even if the Sonics all get healthy at the same time again, Ridnour has been the most pleasant story out of Seattle this year and will be a fine PG2 for the forseeable future.

Shane Battier, F, Hou
I hope you’re not tired of hearing about Shane Battier because I want to revisit him here for a minute.  I was gushing about Battier all offseason long, saying that he would thrive in Houston, and I said he’d be a 5th round value, all sorts of stuff.  So now reality has hit, and he’s still struggling to score 10 ppg and isn’t even grabbing 5 boards.  But you know where he is on the total player rater right now?  Seriously, don’t look at the next line, and think about where he’d be.  Ready?  Fifty-five.  He’s 71 on the APR, and 67 on Basketball Monster.  He’s just so good at all of the little things - his 1.7 threes are obviously huge but don’t overlook his defensive stats - that he ends up being much more valuable than you’d think.  Oh, if only the autodraft hadn’t stolen him from me this year!

Andres Nocioni, F, Chi
A lot of Bulls qualify for this column because of their depth, but we’ll go with Nocioni because we’ve gone with three guards and we need a forward here.  Nocioni was typically drafted in the later rounds of drafts, around 100 overall or so, and he has really delivered for his owners.  He’s at 73 on the APR and has really solidified his position with the Bulls and with his fantasy teams.  Going into the year it looked like he and Luol Deng might really hurt each other’s values, but both of them (Deng is at a terrific 53 on the APR) seem to be doing just fine.

A lot of the questions that we get in the comments section ask us something along the lines of this:

“I’m really good in this one category, but I’m really bad in another.  I’m thinking of trading Player A for Player B, because even though Player A is better overall, Player B helps in the categories I need help in.  What do you think?”

Almost always, my answer is no for this kind of question.  But there are situations where it’s warranted and when the stars are aligned correctly, this move can really help your squad.  I’ve tried to organize this column into factors or lists but sometimes it’s best to just ramble, so here goes:

Now, we talk a lot around draft time about the “best player available” strategy, and considering trades like these is like having that discussion all over again.  The difference is that now, players value is more solidified, you’ve got standings to look at, and every day that goes by is one less day for you to gain or lose in the standings.  So as the year progresses, it becomes more and more worthwhile to trade down in overall value for a gain in a specific category.
 
Let’s take an example to paint a better picture.  Let’s say you’re really desperate for rebounds, and you’ve got your eye on Tyson Chandler.  In return, the other guy wants, say, Tayshaun Prince.  Now, at the beginning of the year this is a no-brainer.  Prince is way more valuable than Chandler from an overall standpoint value and if the draft were today he’d go first every time.  But come the trading deadline at the beginning of March?  You’ve got to take into account the standings and it may be the case that Chandler is more valuable to your team.

The farther along in the season, the less you have to worry about things like injuries or PT shakeups that can really change a guy’s value and really skew your standings.  At this point, to me at least, there’s still way too much time left in the year to start sacrificing overall value for a category-stuffer.  Think about it this way.  Two weeks ago I was really solidified in my spot in three pointers.  Now that Rashard Lewis is out for two months, I’m in a totally different spot.  Imagine if I had traded away Joe Johnson thinking that I had threes wrapped up?

Still, some of you will want to sacrifice one category for help in another and as I mentioned, the later we get in the season, the better this strategy gets.  So let’s talk about another key in going after this kinda trade - a diversified strength.  Again, let’s use an example.  Just for the heck of it, let’s use my team again, and I’ll point out one category where I’m diversified and one where I’m not.  In blocks, I’m not at all diversified.  Despite being 2nd in my league, I’ve got only two guys who are big-time contributors in blocks, Elton Brand and Emeka Okafor.  Another, Nazr Mohammed, struggles to stay in my lineup, and other than than not a single guy averages over one block a game.  This makes it really difficult to trade away blocks, even though it’s one of my strengths.  If I trade away Brand or Okafor, I’m probably looking at being middle of the pack at best in this category, and should the other get hurt (always a possibility), I’m pretty much screwed. 

Now to contrast, let’s look at another one of my strengths, steals (yeah, it looks like I drafted for defense this year).  In this category I’ve got eight different guys averaging over a steal a game, let by Caron Butler with 1.9.  I’ve got four other guys averaging over 0.7 a game.  In this situation, I can very easily trade a good steals guy while not worrying much about my overall standing in that category, even if I lose another guy to injury.  This is a very diversified category for me and should I choose to deal one of my strengths, it will be in steals, not blocks.

OK, so we’ve discussed trading away a strength.  Let’s close up by talking about which needs you have to target.  Keep in mind that when considering injury risks, you’re not just considering your team, you’re considering every team in the league.  Because another team’s injury can be just as important to you in a category as an injury to your own guy.  So diversified strengths, etc. on the part of other teams is something to keep an eye on.  I think that people get too concerned with specific standings too early in the season because they’re not considering these things.  Remember, we’re not even halfway through the season at this point!  There are still so many things that can happen that can drastically change the shape of your team.  Having the best overall team value is the best way to defend your spot in the standings, and sacrificing that value for the sake of one or two categories at this point, to me, is still WAY too risky.

The key is to stay competitive in every category.  If you’re really so far back in a category that you can’t foresee catching up to anyone unless you do something drastic, then sure, go for this kind of deal, though punting might be a better option.  But as long as you’re competitive, whether it’s at the bottom of the category or at the top, you’re going to want to wait until probably after the All-Star break before considering this kind of deal.

OK, how’s that for a rambling response?  I’m sure we’ll get a bunch of differing opinions, but that’s where I stand.

Happy New Year to everyone, and all that. Apologies for the late posting today, it has nothing to do with late night revelry last evening, but everything to do with my slip back into addiction. Addiction to Tetris. I downloaded one of those 8-bit NES simulators and have been playing Tetris pretty non-stop over the past week or so. I just can’t stop. You’d think it would get old after a while, but it really hasn’t. At least not yet. I hope it does soon. Anyway, here’s another look at some players on my team that I’ve been watching all year.

I couldn’t have been more thrilled when Shawn Marion dropped to me at #4 on draft day, but I must admit that so far the ride hasn’t been as great as I thought it would be. Now granted, Marion still sits at #5 on the APR and has stayed perfectly healthy, which counts for even more this season, but those monster Marion game have been a rarity this year. His scoring is down 2.5 points and his rebounds are seriously down, from 11.8 last year to a very ordinary 8.9 this year. I’m willing to attribute some of that to Amare Stoudemire’s return, but it’s also partly the result of Marion guarding more small players this year. He’s often chasing smaller players around the perimeter, leaving guys like Amare to scoop up the rebounds, and leaving Marion to run the floor looking for outlets from Nash. On the offensive end, Stoudemire’s return is obviously having an impact as well, but it’s just as much the team’s depth. A couple years ago when Marion, Stoudemire and Steve Nash all turned in magnificent seasons, the Suns were a very shallow team. When Joe Johnson went down in the playoffs they were basically reduced to a six-man rotation. The Suns can go much deeper now although they normally don’t, but the presence of both Raja Bell and Leandro Barbosa, the return of Stoudemire and Steve Nash scoring at a career high have all combined to make Marion not quite an afterthought on offense, but he’s certainly down the totem pole. He’s averaging just 14.5 attempts per game, down from 16.9 last year, and way down from his career high of 18.1. The majority of his shots come on alley-oops and 3s now, there’s not much in between. Marion is keeping his value by holding steady in those specialty categories, with 1.2 3s, 1.9 steals and 1.5 blocks while maintaining his fantastic percentages. He’s still playing big minutes and you can’t worry about him too much. We should all be lucky enough to have a disappointment like this on our team.

I’m not really sure what came over me when I took Jermaine O’Neal in the second round. My other option was Vince Carter and I just couldn’t pull the trigger, so I went with the fragile big man. And man is this guy fragile. Watching Pacers games is always a nail-biting experience because there’s at least one instance each game when it looks like O’Neal might be done for the evening. He’s always – always – got some sort of affliction, whether it be the flu, pneumonia, ankle, hamstring, etc. That said, you can’t argue with the results so far. He’s at 23/18 on the rater, and while he’s missed five games so far, owners like me are plenty happy that number’s not higher. The big difference in JO’s game this season has obviously been in the blocks department, where he’s averaging a career high 3.1 per game, which is tops in the league. It’s no fluke, either. O’Neal goes for blocks constantly, even if it means getting out of position to go for the swat. He can afford to do this a bit with Jeff Foster around to clean up on the glass, and it isn’t affecting O’Neal’s own rebound numbers, as he’s up to 10.4, which would basically tie his career high. He still takes too many jump shots for my liking, especially since he’s shows very solid to-the-basket moves. This keeps his FG% modest; he’s at 46.5% right now and he’s just not a guy who will give you 50% from the field. His 73% from the line is above his career average and I’ll take it, especially since there are nights when he’s just clueless up there. (He has a 1-for-7 and a 2-for-7 to his credit so far this year.) Another big plus for O’Neal this year is his career-high 3 apg. So we’ve got an extremely fragile center averaging career highs in blocks, rebounds and assists – must be a good sell-high candidate, right? Theoretically, yes. If I could deal O’Neal and get another top center in return, I’d probably do so. But what top center will that be? I was trying to put together a package for Yao Ming, but then he went down. Trading away O’Neal would leave me with a huge hole in blocks, and check out the names behind him on the blocks list – Emeka Okafor, Alonzo Mourning, Marcus Camby, Andrei Kirilenko, Josh Smith, Yao Ming. Those aren’t exactly the most reliable options. Basically, I think O’Neal owners like myself just have to hope he keeps swatting shots, missing just a game or two per month and avoids a serious breakdown.

Deron Williams has slowed down a bit over the past couple of weeks but still clocks in at an impressive 27/41 on the rater. The assists are not a fluke and Williams will be a force in that category all year as long as Carlos Boozer stays healthy. Williams racks up many of his assists in transition or simply by feeding Boozer who makes a quick move to the basket. It’s the one part of his game that is always there. After registering 8+ assists in just one of his first five games, Williams has dished out 8 or more dimes in 18 of the past 26 contests. His ridiculous accuracy he showed from three-point range in the second half of last season has obviously tapered off, and he’s at a pretty bad 31% from long range on the season, although to be fair I’ve seen him launch quite a few 3s with just a tick or two on the shot clock, as is often the case with point guards. That he’s averaging just 1 make per game at just 31% and is still shooting 47% overall means that both of those numbers are bound to increase as the season goes on. Perhaps Williams best trait so far has been that he’s avoided the wrath of Jerry Sloan. The past few seasons Sloan has been one of those coaches who would just get fed up with players and plant them on the bench for much of the game, but Williams has played under 30 minutes in just four contests this year; three of those games were blowouts and the other he was in foul trouble before ultimately fouling out. Williams has a killer instinct reminiscent of a seasoned vet, not a second year player. On plenty of occasions this year he’s taken over the scoring load in the fourth quarter, even in games in which his shot hadn’t been falling early on. I’m not saying I’d rather have him than Chris Paul in real life or in fantasy, but if it gets down to crunch time, I think I’d feel more confident with Williams nailing that jumper as opposed to Paul. Then again, Williams has plenty more support, but I digress. Even though he’s played far above expectations so far, I don’t expect much fantasy drop off from Williams. He’s averaging just 1.0 3s and 0.9 steals, and just a slight uptick in those numbers could make up for whatever marginal losses he might experience in points and assists.