One of my favorite columns to write every year is on punting.  Last year I just focused on one category, blocks, and talked a lot about the overall strategy of punting.  Basically, it goes like this – if you’re going to punt a category, every asset you have in that category is wasted value.  For example, if you’re going to punt rebounds, any guy that is a good rebounder at his position is being wasted on your team.  For a more detailed explanation you can go back and check last year’s column.  This year, I want to talk about some guys to target depending on what you’re punting, and the nuances that go with punting that category.  Ready? OK:

FG%
Percentages are possibly the easiest categories to punt, because players are all over the board and a poor shooter isn’t neceessarily poor in other catgories.  You’ll want to load up on jump-shooting centers like Mehmet Okur, and Jermaine O’Neal is an absolute must here, a poor-shooting big who is nonetheless dominant in other big categories like boards and blocks.  Generally poor-percentage bigs aren’t big in blocks (like Brad Miller, for example), so O’Neal is a great guy to have here.

FT%
Free throw are also popular to punt because some players are just SO AWFUL here that they’re poison to any team that isn’t punting.  There are some obvious ones here – Shaq, Ben Wallace, etc., but the tougher part is finding some PG’s who are poor from the stripe.  The token poor-FT% PG, Baron Davis, is a major question mark, so you may have to settle for a Jamaal Tinsley or Rafer Alston here.  You’re also going to want to go after LeBron, the best high-assists low-FT% guy in the league right now.

Points
No question, points is the toughest category to punt.  I mean, who are your studs?  Jason Kidd is the only Top-15 player on the APR who’s a negative contributer in points, so he’s a must.  Marcus Camby is another … but let’s face it, punting points is just not a way to win a league.

Rebounds
Logic dictates that if you’re going to punt boards, you’re going to have problems in the other big-man categories, blocks and FG%.  So in addition to grabbing poor-boarding bigs like Mark Blount and Eddy Curry, you’re going to want to track down a couple of swingmen who are good shooters and good blockers, like Gerald Wallace or Andrei Kirilenko.

Assists
Obviously the tough thing here is picking up the right PG, and generally you’re going to want to grab one of those fake point guards like Leandro Barbosa or Ben Gordon, scorers who qualify at PG.  You’re also going to run into issues with FT% and Steals, so Dirk Nowitzki and his phenomenal FT% is a must, as are pure shooters like Matt Carroll and Kyle Korver to pick up the slack from the line.  Ron Artest is a nice guy to have here to help with steals, as well.

Steals
Just like punting assists is problematic for steals, punting steals is problematic for assists.  Steve Nash is a must-have here – of the top 20 assist men in the league, only Nash doesn’t contribute positively in steals.  Sam Cassell, with his newfound minutes with the Clippers, is also a helpful guy here.

Blocks
The main concern here is going to be rebounds, but there are a couple of guys who fit the bill, namely Carlos Boozer, Zack Randolph, and David Lee.  Andrew Bogut and Eddy Curry are some other nice big men to have here.  Help in FG% can be found from guards like Tony Parker and Steve Nash.

Now that the NBA trade deadline has passed, the next big date on the fantasy calendar is the trade deadline, which for many leagues is March 8.  That means that for the next week or so, you’ve got two things to worry about.  One is to really start to analyze your place in the standings.  We’ll talk a little bit about that tomorrow.  The other thing that you have to do is make some final decisions about the guys you’re heading down the stretch with.  Is it time to pull off that blockbuster?  Or will you, like all the NBA GM’s, stick to your guns and go with what brought you this far?  Let’s take a look at some big names that you’re just going to have to guess on, and give a buy/sell recommendation.

Shaquille O’Neal
On the one hand, he could take over the team and lead them into the playoffs, a last gasp of dominance from the Big Aristotle.  He’s shown signs of life – 18.6/11.3 with a block over his last three, and he’s played in every game in February.  On the other hand, he’s only got so much left in the tank, and if Wade doesn’t come back, what’s the point?  Shaq could very easily pack it in by St. Patrick’s Day and that won’t help you at all down the stretch.  I say if you can get something of value for him, you go ahead and do it.

Baron Davis
I’ll give myself a little pat on the back for this one, although I really wasn’t going out on much of a limb here.  Davis gets hurt, it’s what he does best.  However, the other thing that he does is comes back for a valiant attempt to save his season, only to shut it back down again.  It happened last year from March 3rd to March 11th.  The year before that he returned for a good 2 months after being dealt to the Warriors.  He made a couple of these surges in ‘03 and ‘04 as well.  Baron owners are probably willing to give up their troubled point guard for a proverbial side of rice pilaf at this point.  If you’ve got an extra roster spot lying around, well, why the heck not?  The Warriors are unbelievably only 1.5 games out of the playoffs, and with Richardson back, Baron could be a worthwhile risk to take.

Caron Butler
Well, as we all know, back issues are problematic.  But there is another issue here as well, namely his slump since the All-Star break.  I’m not sure which is worse – the possibility that his slump is due to his back, or the possibility that it has nothing to do with his back.  If you’re in a risk-averse position you should be prepared to take a third or even fourth-round value for him.

The Big Risks
I’ve already discussed a couple of them in this colulmn, but it’s worth going over this type in general.  A couple of them, like Tim Duncan and Jermaine O’Neal, have gotten through the year relatively unscathed.  Others, like Lamar Odom or Marcus Camby, have certainly missed their fair share but have still helped their fantasy teams in a big way.  Now that we’re getting near the stretch run, we should see all of these guys start moving from the teams at the top of the standings to the teams at the bottom of the standings.  For an example, let’s take Duncan.  As solid as he’s been this year, he’s still just as much of a health risk as he was in October.  Teams that are winning with him shouldn’t take that risk, and will probably be willing to give him up for a more solid player who may have a little less of a ceiling.  Teams that are losing, though, and have nothing to lose, should be grabbing these guys if they’re at all available at a discount.

Pretty Much Every Veteran on a Bad Team
The list is plentiful – Pau Gasol, Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis, Ron Artest, Paul Pierce … a lot of quality names here.  Of course, a lot of these guys are possibly on bad fantasy teams as well, due to the time they missed.  But on the off chance that you’ve got one of these guys AND a contending squad, you might try to make a move for someone who’s gonna have something to play for come April.

The defining mark of this fantasy basketball season has been the countless injuries to top players around the league. Look around the rosters in your league and there’s a very good chance you’ll only find a couple of teams that have made it to this point without one of their first round picks going down. But the cavalry is starting to come back, so today let’s take a look at some of the returning studs, how they are looking upon their return, what to expect from them the rest of the year, and look ahead to next year to see if they will be deserving of the dreaded “injury risk” tag or not.

Paul Pierce
I’ll admit that I was skeptical that Pierce was going to be back at all this season. He was out past his original diagnosis, his diagnosis seemed to change after a while, he came down with an infection while recovering, the Celtics are better off losing games … it just didn’t seem like it was worth it for The Truth to return. But after missing 25 games, Pierce returned on Feb. 9 and has at least resembled his old self. His first three starts were almost vintage Pierce – 29/2.7/3.7 with 3.3 3s and 1.3 steals. His shooting touch has abandoned him the past few games as the Celtics have been run over on their west coast road trip, but Pierce looks to be rounding back into game shape. A few things to note, with the caveat that he’s started just six games since his return. First, his minutes are down. He played 41 minutes in a loss at Phoenix and hasn’t topped 36 minutes in any of his other games. Pierce has usually been a guy who approaches 38-40 mpg, as it was his big minutes and clearly being the team’s first option that made him such a strong fantasy player. There is absolutely no reason at all for the C’s to ride Pierce and force him to play big minutes over the rest of the season. Does this mean that he’ll stay between 30 and 35 minutes on most nights? No way. He’s still a competitor and the team is going to try to win games when it can. He’ll have more than a few 40 minute games where he puts up big numbers. His lack of rebounds could be a legit concern. Pierce has always been good for 6-7 boards per contest, part of his strong overall game that made him a first-round pick. But he hasn’t topped six boards in any of his six starts and is averaging just 3.3 per in those games. He managed to not grab a single rebound in 36 minutes of play on Valentine’s Day against Milwaukee. It’s reasonable to think that crashing the boards wouldn’t be Pierce’s top priority upon returning, but after the rebounding tear he was on early in the season, his owners have to be a bit disappointed. He averaged 8.5 rpg in November, including 19 in the season opener, three other contests in double digits and three more games with 9. Pierce often went after rebounds because he felt like he had to do everything for the team, but in his absence Al Jefferson has emerged as one of the best on the boards in the game. He’s averaging nearly 12 rpg as a starter and has five games of 13 or more in his past 8. Might Pierce’s best rebounding days be behind him? Possible, but it’s not set in stone. We have liked Pierce as a late first rounder because of his durability, high minutes and need to do it all for his team. Over the rest of the season, be ready to expect top 20 numbers, if not necessarily top 10. As long as his foot injury doesn’t flare up again, it shouldn’t be a long-term concern.

Michael Redd
I’ve been looking forward to Redd’s return for a while, but I was keeping my expectations in check for his return. His knee injury was the type that kept him off the court for a while and would require a decent amount of “get back into it” time. Plus, he was playing the best ball of his career before the injury. He was likely to experience some sort of drop off in the second half regardless of his injury. Like Pierce, Redd’s minutes have been down since his return, especially in back-to-back games. His four games have been a pair of back-to-backs and he’s played 30-40-30-33 in those contests. One of the main reasons Redd had been so effective this year was his newfound ability to get the line. He jumped from 5.8 FTApg in 04-05 to 7.1 last year and was up to nearly 9 per game before his injury in early January. Unsurprisingly that aggressiveness hasn’t quite been there in his first few games back, as he’s averaging just 5.5 trips to the line, and that means more jump shots and that means a lower FG%. This is my main concern with Redd going forward. He had a very hot November in which he shot 48% on 21 attempts per game, then dropped down to 46% on 18 per game in December. He’s a career 45% shooter, so he could be expected to cool down, especially as teams paid him more attention. If he’s tentative to use his new attacking-the-basket game and will settle for jump shots it might result in more 3s (he’s attempted 26 in his past three games), but might have a negative impact on his value overall. Redd is someone to watch closely once he returns to full health. His hot first month made him one of the more buzz-worthy players early in the season, and that might make him slightly more valuable than he should be on draft day next year. There doesn’t seem to be any reason not to like him as a 3rd round pick again, but he’s still not a superstar for fantasy purposes.

Rashard Lewis
Lewis left his last game with a slight ankle sprain, but he seems likely to play tonight. We’ve all heard that one before, so take that for what it’s worth. Anyway, unlike Pierce and Redd, Lewis didn’t have an injury that required him to be off his feet for the entire time he was out. He could stay in shape while off the court, so it wasn’t too surprising to see him play 37 and 43 minutes in his first two games back. The rust was expected to be in his shooting, not his conditioning, and that’s been exactly the case. He’s right around 40% since his return, obviously far off from the 46% we expect him to be at these days. Other than that, he’s been doing basically what his owners were hoping he’d be doing for them all year. He’s at #35 on the 15 day rater, and if his FG% was at its normal spot he would move into the top 25. When it was announced that Lewis was going to be out for two months, we said there was still no way you could possibly drop him, not with his talent and with the fact that he’d be playing for a max contract over the season’s final months. The lack of re-adjustment time is a big thing to look at when you deal with injuries. That’s why knee/leg/foot injuries are always the worst – 19 missed games may the official take, but that can be followed by a spell of 5 or 6 games of limited effectiveness, and besides the shooting, that’s exactly what Lewis has avoided. Some Lewis owners might be worried about his bad shooting since his return, and they might be low in the standings because, well, they’ve been missing one of their best players for two months. Combined with that fact that Lewis is perennially one of the most underrated players in the game, there may not be a more landable difference maker out there to help you make your end-of-season push.

It’s time to take a look at week 2/26-3/4:

Four Games: Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas, Golden State, Houston, LA Clippers, Memphis, New Orleans, New York, Orlando, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Sacramento, Seattle, Toronto, Utah, Washington.

Three Games: Cleveland, Denver, Indiana, LA Lakers, Miami, Milwaukee, Minnesota, New Jersey, Portland, San Antonio.

Two Games: Detroit.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:

Jason Richardson, GF: The 2006-07 seemed all but lost for Richardson and his fantasy owners for some time there, but his wrist injury may have helped J-Rich take the time to fully recover from his knee surgery.  With all the fantasy success stories out of Golden State this season (Davis, Ellis, Biedrins, Barnes), it’s easy to forget that Richardson was supposed to be the sure-fire fantasy stud on this team.  It was his 23/6/3 averages with 2.4 treys and 1.3 thefts last year that made him a second or third round pick in drafts this season.  Kudos to you if you’ve managed to hold onto him this long.  J-Rich is 100% recovered from both injuries and appears ready to get back to being his old self.  He’s posted 18.5/7.5/4 off the pine in his first two games back, and should find his way back into the Warriors’ starting lineup in no time.  He could very well be the difference maker for a lot of fantasy squads these last couple months of the season.  He’s a must start with four tilts coming up this week (@MIL, @CHI, @NY, @WAS).

Kyle Korver, SF: This season may be Andre Iguodala’s breakout year, but he can’t carry the Sixers all by his lonesome.  Iggy is mired in a shooting slump in which he’s hit 16 of 54 shots (29.6%) over his last four games, and Korver has been doing his best to make up the difference.  The King of Sling is averaging 19/4/1 with 2.5 treys and some sweet shooting (54/96%) since February 9th.  Korver has only started one game for Philly this season so his playing time can be erratic, but as a three-point specialist on a hot streak, he’s worth plugging in for four nice matchups this week (SAC, PHO, MEM, NJN).

Randy Foye, G: He’s still stuck in a timeshare in Minnesota’s backcourt with Mike James and Marko Jaric, but Foye has started the last 6 games and should hang on to that starting gig for the rest of the season.  The rookie is not only due for his opportunity, but he may also give the T-Wolves a fighting chance at that last playoff spot in the West.  As a starter this season, Foye is posting 13/4/5 with 1.5 threes.  If he can consistently garner 30-35 mpg, he should be able to improve on those numbers and be a viable fantasy starter down the stretch.  Plus, there’s always the possibility of a couple breakout games that could elevate his status even higher.  Keep him in your lineups for three matchups this week.

Danny Granger, F: Granger had his share of fantasy worthy starts as a rookie last year, and he’s continued to develop in his second season out of New Mexico.  He gives his owners quality production across the board, in the Tayshaun Prince or Josh Childress mold.  Granger’s most evident improvement this season has been his production from long range… After averaging 0.4 treys on 32.3% shooting from downtown last year, he’s draining an impressive 1.6 threes per game on 40% shooting in ‘06-07. Granger has helped the Pacers to a 29-25 record this season and he could very well help your fantasy squad land in the playoffs as well.  Plug in the versatile forward for three games, including a back-to-back against Phoenix, this week.

Anderson Varejao, FC: The Brazilian big man has started at center in place of Ilgauskus the last four games for the Cavs, averaging 11/13/1 with 1.5 steals and 1.3 blocks in the process.  Very nice, Wild Thing.  Varejao has always been a tenacious rebounder and is one of Cleveland’s top reserves.  Even though Big Z returned to the lineup today, we can expect Varejao to continue seeing about 25-30 mpg going forward.  Sideshow Bob and his center-eligibility make a decent fill-in for those in need of a second center this week.

 

Pickup: Eddie Jones
Drop: Channing Frye
Last night was a sort of extreme example of what to expect in Dwyane Wade’s absence for Miami. The game was nowhere near as close as the final 12-point margin, but we saw Shaq be the main threat until things got out of hand, Jason Williams tried to pick up some of the slack, and one of the random bench players had a nice game, this time being James Posey. Jones got 29 minutes off the bench but didn’t do much with it except grab steals. He also hit a 3, and it’s those 3s and steals that have made him sneaky valuable the last few years. If he can make his way into the starting lineup he might be worth a roster spot, but even that’s not a definite. Frye will be picked up again shortly, most likely the next time he scores 20, and it will be by a team who needs help in the middle.

Pickup: Ryan Gomes
Drop: Speedy Claxton
With Wally Szczerbiak back down, Gomes should be able to keep his regular PT. That means he’ll be able to put up numbers that look just good enough in the box score to keep him around, but in reality aren’t helping you much. His 21 and 7 against Phoenix was the result of seeing 41 minutes and playing Phoenix. The three previous games he averaged 12.7/5.3/1.7 and that’s maybe a bit low but closer to what he’ll be doing. Paul Pierce is back and playing like Paul Pierce, Al Jefferson is locked in as a top threat and Delonte West is playing great ball lately. That leaves Gomes as the #4 option, so that limits his already limited upside to begin with. I had him on my team for a while before dropping him last week and the way it is with Gomes is that if he makes half his shots he’s not a bad use of a utility slot, but if his FG% isn’t a positive, he’s just not worth having around. Back to back scoreless games seemed a fine reason to cut Claxton. His lost season doesn’t seem like it will be found.

Pickup: Kurt Thomas
Drop: Wally Szczerbiak
After a fantastic November – 20.2/3.6/2.0 with 1.7 3s on 47/90 shooting – it’s been pretty much a lost season for Szczerbiak. Injuries were certainly a concern for him coming into the season, but after appearing in 80 total games in the 02-03, 03-04 seasons, he rebounded with 153 total in the last two seasons. But his ankles are giving him fits and as the season starts to get into its final weeks it likely won’t take much to keep Wally on the bench. His shooting touch has been off since he’s been playing so on and off, but his skills don’t seem too diminished. It’s hard to tell what kind of role he’ll have next year, but don’t completely give up on him, even if it means keeping him in mind for the final rounds. Thomas came back from injury and went right into the starting lineup with Boris Diaw out and did all that could be expected from him – grabbed some boards and that’s about it. Just 8 total points in 25 mpg in the past two contests, no blocks, 19 total boards. If that’s what he does as a starter without Diaw, you can be pretty sure that he’s not going to have much value.

Pickup: Mike James
Drop: Shaun Livingston
A couple of the bigger PG disappointments of the fantasy season right here. Livingston had a nice stretch of play off the bench and was rewarded with a return to the starting lineup and promptly scored 8 points in two games that saw the Clippers total just 154 points. That’s not going to get it done, so he was back on the bench for the last two. The Clippers have been painfully mediocre all year, but the weak bottom half of the Western Conference is keeping them right in the running for the final playoff spot, as they are tied in the loss column with the Warriors. It would almost be better for everyone involved if the Clippers just dropped out of the race and let Livingston get a full shot as the starting PG for the last 30 games or so, but that doesn’t seem to the be case. Sam Cassell has played just 57 minutes in the last three games, so the opportunity is there for Livingston, but as we pretty well know by now, consistency hasn’t exactly been his strong suit so far in his career. He’s been racking up steals lately and can do the same with assists if he gets consistent minutes. Even though it’s James who has been the better player over the past few games, I’d still probably rather have Livingston. I was there for James’ 20-point game against the Wizards and it was mostly the result of shooting lots of free throws, and it wasn’t like he was being all that aggressive. Backing that up with 17 and 5 in 24 minutes is solid, but as long as both he and Randy Foye are healthy and Marko Jaric is lurking in the background, none of them have much upside.

Pickup: Erick Dampier
Drop: Sasha Pavlovic
Erm, yeah. Kinda sucks to sometimes need two centers, doesn’t it? Dampier’s the same stiff he’s always been and he isn’t even blocking shots these days. His February line of 6.5/7.2/0.5 with 0.7 blocks on 71% shooting (on 3.5 attempts) looks like an Andris Biedrins rookie season line, minus the blocks. It’s good for a sparkling #162 on the player rater over the past 15. Is he really the best center option out there in our league? Scary, but Steven Hunter might be the only better option. There’s a reason I might be holding onto the newly center-eligible Anderson Varejao even if he will be back on the bench when Zydrunas Ilgauskas comes back. As for fellow Cav Pavlovic, well, he could sort of become a Matt Harpring type if everything goes exactly right, but it’s hard to see that happening.

You could tell it was going to be bad right away. The way Dwyane Wade just gave up on the play, it’s not like him. Then to see him on the bench crying, that just wasn’t something I was prepared for. This is Dwyane Wade, one of the toughest dudes in the league, he bounces back from everything, and there is crying on the bench, in so much pain they have to bring a wheelchair out to wheel him to the locker room. Have you ever seen that during an NBA game before, a wheelchair? I’ve seen a stretcher, but think that might have been my first wheelchair. In any case, a separated shoulder is what it looked like and there’s no final word yet, but that seems to the be case. It’s obviously a devastating loss all around – for the Heat, for his fantasy owners, for the NBA and its fans. Even as a Wizards fan who was fairly certain that the Wiz would draw the Heat and get the boot in round 1, I’m majorly bummed about this. Still, we have to check the fantasy consequences, so let’s look at what the Heat got.

Shaquille O’Neal
Yes, The Diesel looked pretty good last night, but doesn’t that just put things into perspective? His 20/16 with 1 block on 9-of-15 shooting qualifies as his best game of the year, while even a few years ago that was pretty much a ho-hum Shaq Daddy evening. He won’t have any choice but to be the Heat’s main option while Wade is out and he showed that last night he can still dominate at times, but don’t count on a complete resurgence. He still hasn’t played more than 30 minutes in a game, and while he is working his way back into shape, counting on Shaq for 35+ mpg at this point, especially when teams will be focusing on him even more, just isn’t realistic. That said, Shaq could be one of the most valuable centers around in H2H leagues from here on out. His free throw woes still spell disaster in roto leagues and make him pretty untouchable, especially for teams within .20 of other teams in the free throw race. Expect Shaq’s drought of no 25 point games to end relatively soon, but if he “turns it on” expect 04-05 numbers at best, nowhere near his career best.

Jason Kapono
Kapono, like everyone else on the Heat, has benefited from having Wade out there. There will be more of everything to pick up while Wade’s out, but in games that Wade has missed so far this season Kapono hasn’t put up especially better numbers. That said, he has been the team’s most consistent scoring threat behind Flash for the past two months, so it’s reasonable to expect him to continue being a fine source of 3s and an all-around solid contributor. He’s working on a 13-game streak of scoring in double figures and is the #75 ranked player over the past month. He has “only” 5 3s in his past four games, but don’t be surprised to see him start launching more over the next few weeks, especially if the offense is running through Shaq and he looks for kick-out options. Kapono might even be a decent guy to slightly overpay for if you are looking to make a late run in 3s, as he is someone who can be a difference maker in that category and you won’t have to give up the farm for him.

Jason Williams
He just doesn’t seem like he’s going to be able to stay healthy. It’s too bad, because this would be a great opportunity for him to pick up some of the scoring slack, and it’s quite possible that he’ll string a few solid games together. He did it for much of January, but he has multiple ailments now and didn’t look to be playing at full speed last night. In a best-case scenario Williams could be an even better option than Kapono for those looking for cheap 3s. He launches at will – he had 5.1 attempts per game in January compared to Kapono’s 4 – and he can obviously also be an asset in assists and steals. Now that he’s back on the court he looks more worthy of a pick up, and he’s the kind of player that I’d be ready to pounce on after one good outing. The opportunity’s there, he’s streaky and you need to be quick with pickups at this point in the season.

Eddie Jones
It’s possible that Jones finds his way into the starting lineup, but it’s been such a lost season for Jones that it’s hard to see him really turning it around. I often talk about how the guys you can find for cheap on the free agent list will usually be able to help you in 3s while killing your FG% and Jones is yet another example of that. He hasn’t shot above 43% since the 2000-2001 season, so that means if he does enough to make a difference, he’ll be dragging your FG% down in the process. If no deal goes down then fellow veterans James Posey, Gary Payton and Antoine Walker will still be around to soak up some of the shots that Wade would have taken, so this isn’t one of those fill in situations where all the minutes simply get transferred to one player. I’ve always liked Jones and probably been a bigger supporter of his than most or than I should be, so if I’m this cold on him, that should say something.

The Rest
If last night’s game is any indication, there might not be too many fantasy winners in the aftermath of Wade’s injury. Pat Riley played 10 guys for at least 16 minutes and no more than 35 minutes. Granted, the game was a little out of hand by the end, but this is also a very old team. And without Wade, they are a very crappy team, even with Shaq manning the middle. Riley will mix and match because he doesn’t have the players to run out there for 40 minutes a night. I think Antoine Walker still has some big games in him, but unless he gets a chance to start he won’t be worth owning and he remains the worst player in the league when it comes to percentages. So the bottom line may be that even the one silver lining of an injury to a big-time player – more guys with fantasy value in his absence – might not even come to fruition in this case.

As the trade rumors swirl and big names get tossed about, I thought I’d do a little piece on one of our favorite subjects here at FBB: point guards.  Below are three rookie point guards who, if the cards fall just so, could be seeing major minutes over the second half of the season.  Even if not, it’s important to keep an eye on these youngsters so that you know what to expect if and when they ever DO get some minutes.  With that in mind, here’s a primer on them:

Marcus Williams, NJ

Williams is one of those guys who slid in the draft because of off-the-court issues and conditioning questions, but make no mistake – he’s a kid with lottery-level talent.  He’s also the most likely of the three of these guys to suddenly find himself with a major role over the last few months of the season.  If either Jason Kidd or Vince Carter get dealt – or injured – look for Williams – who can fill in at the 2 in a pinch – to get some serious burn.

We got a preview of what Marcus could do last week when he filled in for an injured Kidd.  While his FG% was atrocious (11 for 32 from the field), he had 10 assists in one game and knocked down a three both nights.  Williams wasn’t a very big scorer in college and it looks like he shouldn’t be counted on for major points in the NBA either.  He was drafted as a pure point guard and his 42% shooting from the field – including a cringe-worthy 29% from the arc – haven’t done much to quell the doubts about his scoring ability.  Still, he’s got potential as a sneaky-value, Jarrett Jack type.  When you shoot 85% fromt he line and can chip in somewhere around 7 assists, a steal and a three, you don’t need to score much to have nice fantasy value.

Williams may be already owned in most leagues but should be snatched up for the garbage bench spot if at all possible until the end of the week.

Rajon Rondo, BOS

Speaking of poor-shooting rookie point guards, how about Rondo?  Not only is Rondo a disaster from the field, but he’s an embarrassment from the line as well – his 65% right now is actually an improvement over his struggles at Kentucky, where he shot 57% in his sophomore year.

Rondo is a difficult guy to get a hold on because there’s not really a fantasy match for him elsewhere.  He stinks percentage-wise and as a result won’t score much, but he’s a spectacular rebounder for a point guard.  His 7.5 boards per 48 minutes are second best among point guards, behind only Jason Kidd.  He’s also a steals monster – his 3.42 steals per 48 minutes are tops in the LEAGUE, well ahead of Ron Artest’s 2.88.  Finally, his 8.5 assists per 48 minutes are 17th in the league, right in between Steve Blake and Allen Iverson.

Needless to say, this kinda guy is a rarity in FBB.  A guy whose three biggest assets are assists, steals … and rebounds?  Plus, he’s absolutely useless in all of the other categories.  For the right team, though – H2H teams who need boards, assists and steals, for example – he’s got the chance to be a huge assset.

Jordan Farmar, LAL

Farmar seems to be another prototypical point guard, not that there’s anything wrong with that.  His assists aren’t partiularly good – at 5 per 40 minutes that’s not too great.  You’d like to think that part of the issue there is that he’s got to share the ball with Kobe Bryant, but according to 82games.com most of the time he’s on the court, Kobe’s on the bench.

The good thing to see with Farmar is that he’s improving, and at just 20 years old,  he should be.  His percentages have gone up across the board form his time at UCLA, and his 45 and 36 from the field/arc are pretty respectable already.  The FT%, stuck at just 73%, still needs work, but keep in mind he’s only shot 34 foul shots all year long.

Farmar is unlikely to have any value this year, but at least is showing signs of improvement and we’ll have to keep an eye on him over the next year or two to see how this develops.

While we’ve got a little lull here in the schedule, I thought I’d chime in on a topic I’ve been meaning to write about for awhile – head to head leagues.  More specifically, I want to talk a little bit about why I don’t think they really work for fantasy basketball.

One of the most challenging things about fantasy sports is dealing with the uncertainty factor, be it an injury, a mid-season trade, whatever.  In fact, most of the writing that we do here is based on trying to mitigate and take advantage of uncertainties as a fantasy factor.  The thing is, it’s also one of the things that makes fantasy sports so exciting.  It’s why taking huge leaps of faith on guys like Baron Davis, Tim Duncan or Amare Stoudamire generate so much talk around draft time and through the year.

However, there’s two kinds of uncertainty – luck and risk.  Risk is good.  Risk is the debatable stuff: How well a rookie will perform, how many games will an injury risk play, how players will mesh with new teams.  It’s the life blood of fantasy sports, gambling, etc, and I love it.  Luck, however, is bad.  It’s stuff that you can’t possibly forsee or plan for or that really should have no bearing on your ability as a fantasy player.  It’s the most frustrating part of fantasy basketball, and unfortunately, H2H leagues bring them into the forefront.  Here are my three biggest beefs with H2H fantasy basketball:

1.  The weekly games played issue.
Now, come on.  you can’t tell me that in the heat of the draft, you’re looking at a guy and saying, “well, he’s not as good as this other guy, but his schedule complements my team a little better.”  The extreme example was last week where most teams played either one or two games.  The difference between one game and two, obviously, is huge, and teams with few one-gamers has a nice advantage over teams that have a lot of one-gamers.  But that’s ridiculous!  Just because your team has a more favorable schedule this week doesn’t mean that your team should have any real advantage in the standings.  That might be an extreme example but this happens every week to some degree.  This is closely related to…

2. The weekly lineups issue.
Listen, I know how impossible it is to predict when one player is going to play versus when he isn’t.  I have problems with this all the time, and we have daily lineups.  So I can’t imagine how impossible it is to predict the future six days ahead of time.  A perfect example was Elton Brand last week, who sat out two games with absolutely no warning.  Daily lineup leaguers were at least able to plug in a bench player to get some help.  Weekly lineup leaguers were totally SOL.  Even worse, this set-up means that the injury affects TWO teams – it gives a big disadvanage to the injured player’s team while giving a huge advantage to their opponent!

3.  The innattentive owners issue.
It’s just the truth.  Over the course of a nearly 6-month season, the owners of struggling teams are going to stop paying attention.  It happens in rotisserie leagues just like it happens in H2H leagues.  The only thing is, in rotisserie it affects all of the competitive owners the same.  No one gets any real benefit over anyone else if the last place guy stops paying attention.  Not so in H2H.  Here, only the teams scheduled to play against the lame owner benefit, and that’s a big advantage over guys who don’t get to play against the walkover.

Now, granted, a lot of these arguments can also be made for fantasy football, but with so much less attention attrition, so much more of a trash-talking culture, the lack of good rotisserie stats, I can see the point of doing H2H for football.  But basketball?  Not so much.  Rotisserie works and works well.  The best team will win the championship, not the one who got to play the most teams who were decimated by injury at the time.  H2H is a neat idea for football, but please, let’s not get carried away with it.

Sorry for the delayed post this week folks.  NBA All-Stars may have been chillin’ in Vegas, but I was tied up most of the weekend.
Here’s a quick look at week 2/19-2/25:

Four Games: Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Detroit, Milwaukee, Minnesota, New York, Orlando, Phoenix, Sacramento, Washington.

Three Games: Cleveland, Denver, Golden State, Houston, Indiana, LA Lakers, Memphis, Miami, New Jersey, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Portland, San Antonio, Seattle, Toronto, Utah.

Two Games: Dallas, LA Clippers.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:

Rudy Gay, GF:  The rookie swingman has put together his best 5-game stretch of the season going into the break.  Gay is averaging 19/6/1 with 2 threes, 0.8 steals, and 1.8 blocks over that span.  With the Grizzlies’ season in the toilet (at 14-40), we can expect the former Husky to remain in the starting lineup going forward.

Randy Foye, G: There’s some serious potential for a huge second half from Foye in Minnesota.  It appears that the T-Wolves have given up on Mike James as their starting PG.  The rookie out of Nova makes for an excellent pickup or even a trade target before your league’s deadline.  It doesn’t look like Foye’s recent brush with the law will have any detrimental effect on the court.  Get him in your lineups for four very sweet matchups this week (@WAS, CHA, PHO, WAS).

Darko Milicic, FC: While generally considered a major bust as the second overall pick in the 2003 draft, Darko has really been limited due to his lack of opportunity over the years.  Granted, you could argue that he wasn’t given the opportunity because he just wasn’t any good… but I don’t think that’s the whole story. Now that he’s starting and getting 35+ minutes per game, Darko should really surge in the second half of the season.  Tony Battie is out with a broken thumb and will be lucky to ever start another game in the NBA.  Battie is another one of those feeble “big men” in the Lorenzen Wright or Jason Collins mold who just doesn’t do much of anything.  Darko should be more of a threat on both ends of the floor especially in the blocks department where he should swat 3+ per game going forward.  He’s a great play with four games coming up.

Jason Kapono, GF: Probably one of the most outrageous statistical feats so far this season is Kapono’s 56% shooting from long range (89 of 159).  I think it’s about time we start giving the former Bruin some credit… He has now started 24 consecutive games for the defending champion Miami Heat, in which he’s posting 15/4/2 with 2.4 treys on 55/91% shooting.  J-Kap has held off the likes of Antoine Walker and James Posey to remain in Miami’s starting lineup and took another step to toward validating his status as a big league sharpshooter by outshining the likes of Nowitzki and Arenas at the 3-point competition over the weekend.  While it will be nearly impossible to maintain his 56% three-point shooting, Kapono can be expected to deliver a solid second half.  Plug him in for three tilts this week.

Who are your picks for a breakout or strong second half this season? Knight? Livingston? Aldridge? Blatche?

Pickup: Speedy Claxton
Drop: Peja Stojakovic
Claxton probably has at least one very solid stretch left in him. He’s proven that he’s simply not healthy enough to be counted on for the long-term, but it’s likely he’ll have a two week stretch where he’s a top assists and steals man. In a three-game stretch from Dec. 15 to 20 he averaged 13.7 points, 10 assists and 3.7 steals. The problem, of course, is that it’s tough to know when that effective play will happen. Perhaps with a little rest from the all-star break he’ll be able to rejoin the starting lineup next week and reel off a few good games. Maybe not. If Tyronn Lue’s around, it won’t be as easy. He’s still a better use of a spot than Peja.

Pickup: Matt Carroll
Drop: Brendan Haywood
This was a move I made. Antawn Jamison’s injury actually hurt Haywood, as it has led to Eddie Jordan using more of his bench, and Haywood’s losing minutes to Michael Ruffin and Darius Songaila, even with Etan Thomas on the sidelines. Carroll’s still putting up some solid numbers, but basically I just need his 3s, and I don’t mind his FT%. Right now I have 423 3s, giving me 6 points in that category, one 4 ahead of the person with 5 points. The team with 9 points has 436 3s, only 13 ahead of me. Carroll can singlehandedly – I hope – make a difference there. I’m also holding on for dear life in FT%. I’m at .790, then it goes .788, .787, .782, .782. I need all those points, and Carroll’s a top 25 in FT% value this year.

Pickup: Sasha Pavlovic
Drop: Jorge Garbajosa
This is a good example of a pickup I don’t like it, similar to Bostjan Nachbar a few weeks ago. A bench player who is a historically bad shooter has a few hot games, nails a bunch of 3s, and gets picked up. So what did he do in his first game in this guy’s lineup? He put up 4/0/0 with a 3 in 17 minutes. Last night’s 11/3/2 wasn’t too much better. It was pretty clear he wasn’t going to get a starting job, which made it pretty clear that his hot streak wasn’t going to last. I expect him to hit the waiver wire pretty soon. Garbajosa’s been a TR regular lately, as that center eligibility and those 3s make him look good for a while. He’s #93 on the 15 day rater, so he’s got some value and will probably be picked up soon.

Pickup: Channing Frye
Drop: Sarunas Jasikevicius
Frye’s been picked up a bunch of times this year, which means that he was dropped a bunch of times. He’s been one of the bigger mid-round disappointments this year, honestly. He showed plenty of ability in his rookie season but has regressed across the board. His PT has been inconsistent, but he’s actually seeing nearly 2 more mpg this year. Most numbers are slightly below last year’s totals, with the biggest drop in points and FG%. The occasional big game and his center eligibility makes him an intriguing option, but the Knicks have actually established an offensive hierarchy, and Frye isn’t near the top of the list. Eddy Curry and Jamal Crawford are clearly the top two options on this time, Stephon Marbury is the guy with the ball in his hands the most, David Lee is the cleanup man and Quentin Richardson has some big games. That puts Frye way down on the list. Last year he thrived when he got to shoot as much as possible, and that’s just not happening this year. It seems wrong that Jasikevicius saw just 6 minutes on Wednesday with Baron Davis out, but so is life with Don Nelson. His rate numbers during his brief stay in Golden State have been fine, but the PT just doesn’t seem to be there.

Pickup: Ruben Patterson
Drop: Speedy Claxton
We keep waiting for Ruben’s run to end, and it just keeps stretching on. He went four straight games of 16 points or less, but then had a two-game stretch of 27.5/11.5/4.5 with 4 steals. Sad thing was he probably got dropped a few days earlier and was on the free agent list when they happened. In his last three it’s been 14.3/4.3/3.7 with 1.3 steals on 62% shooting, the same numbers that made him a playable utility guy for almost the entire season. He’s the #81 rated player on the season in non-turnover leagues, which by the numbers is 7^th round production in 12-teamers. It’s been a good season for Ruben, so don’t count him out yet, even with Michael Redd scheduled to return within a week.

Pickup: Anderson Varejao
Drop: Ryan Gomes
This was a move I made. Gomes is one of those guys that gets lots of minutes and puts up good enough box scores you make you not want to drop him. But he’s simply not that valuable of a player since he has to always be efficient with his scoring to make up for his lack of peripherals. Anderson Varejao was scheduled for two starts in place of Zydrunas Ilgauskas, I’m in a super tight race for rebounds, so I made the move. Two games and 28 rebounds later I’m happy with my move. If you have the roster spot to play with, I’m a big fan of taking sure thing productive games when you can. It was clear with Big Z gone that Varejao would log heavy minutes and put up numbers. He saw around 37 minutes in both games and was good for 12/14/1 with 2 steals and 1.5 blocks on 50/67 shooting. He played exactly like he should have. Good for him.

Pickup: Jason Williams
Drop: Matt Carroll
Not so sure about this one. Williams is in the same league as Claxton, likely to be very useable for a very short span, but a bad bet long term. Williams has less upside than Claxton because he doesn’t have the ability to dominate a single category, but can be a fine source of assists and especially 3s when things are going right. He might be back after the all-star break, but who knows how long for.

Pickup: Derek Fisher
Drop: Ike Diogu
There are some extra points to go around with Carlos Boozer out, but Fisher doesn’t seem to be much of a beneficiary. Another one of those guys with too small a window. He had games of 37-37-42 minutes, gets picked up, then goes down to 31-25. Fisher hasn’t his 3 3s in a single game this year and has only three games with a pair.

Pickup: Andray Blatche
Drop: Mickael Pietrus
We’ve talked enough about Andray lately.

Pickup: Chris Duhon
Drop: Earl Watson
Another move to pick up of a hot shooting bench player, so you know I’m not in love with it. Watson’s back on the bench in favor of Luke Ridnour, as it ought to be, and Duhon is certainly back in the mix for Chicago, but he’s still not worth it except in very deep leagues. In eight February games he’s averaging nearly 29 mpg and is putting up 12.5/2.4/4.5 with 1.5 steals and 1.9 3s. It’s good enough for #65 in the past 15 days, but it’s very hard to see it lasting. Plug him in the lineup and what happens? Wednesday’s 6/3/5 games. Duhon does seem to be consistent with his 3s, but as we’ve discovered over time in TR, guys who hit 3s are readily available.

Pickup: Randy Foye
Drop: Marcus Banks
I was sitting at the computer waiting to pick up Foye, but I didn’t pull the trigger and BV did about an hour later. He’s got the starting job, but that doesn’t mean Mike James and Marko Jaric have disappeared. It’s only been two games, but Foye has averaged just 29.5 mpg in his first two starts, good for 9/5.5/5.5 with just one total steal and block, no 3s. I expect Foye to have some huge games as long as he keeps his starting spot – which looks likely – but he won’t be consistently great. With some regular playing time it will be interesting to see if his steals numbers get any better, because that’s one aspect of his games that’s really been lacking so far. Banks has actually been surprisingly effective in Steve Nash’s absence, mainly because of hot shooting. His 20-of-32 from the field over the last three is obviously an anomaly and he hasn’t done much else to give him any value.