Every year we spend a bit too much time at the beginning of the season wondering who will be extra motivated to put up huge numbers in a contract season. I feel like this angle gets overplayed a bit, but it’s certainly something worth taking into consideration, especially as we enter the stretch run. So let’s look at some of the big names headed for free agency and whether they can be expected to take it to another level in the season’s last two months.

The best of the upcoming free agents don’t really need to do make a big push in the season’s second half. Chauncey Billups and Vince Carter can be pretty assured that as long as they don’t suffer a serious injury, they will sign a maximum contract in the off season. Both players are established stars, and no matter what happens over the last 40 games, they will be getting major money.

It gets more interesting when we move down to the next tier of players. Rashard Lewis has a player option that he seems very likely to use, and he is indeed someone who has something to prove in the season’s second half. Lewis probably would like to think he’s deserving of a max deal, but he’s not really considered a superstar and has never been the #1 option on his team. Fantasy basketball vets probably appreciate his game more than most folks, and that may include GMs around the league. Lewis won’t have the benefit of the big stage of the playoffs to make a statement, so when he returns in a week or so he’ll have around 30 games to remind people what he can do. Lewis was playing at his normally high level before suffering his unfortunate hand injury, checking in at #11 on the average player rater. He’ll have plenty of motivation to put up big numbers as the Sonics season slips toward irrelevancy. If he gets off to a slow start in his first few games back, be ready to pounce on a worried owner.

We look to be in the midst of Gerald Wallace’s contract push right now. It’s no secret that Wallace is absolutely on fire. In 10 games since returning from a shoulder injury, he’s averaging 21.9/9.5/2.9 with 0.8 3s, 2 steals and 1.1 blocks. He’s #20 on the 15 day rater, and if he was shooting free throws at merely the league average he’d be just outside the top 10. Although he’s missed only one stretch of seven games this season, Wallace probably has earned the “injury-plagued” tag, or at least the slightly less serious “injury prone.” Wallace has always been valued most for his all-around contributions, but it looks like he’s trying to prove that he can be a go-to scorer as well. After all, the big money usually goes to the guys who put the ball in the basket. Wallace reached 20 points in 11 of 55 games last year; he’s done it 10 times in 40 games this season, including three of his last four. The increased scoring has helped owners deal with the alarming drop in blocks, from 2.1 last year to 0.9 this year, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Wallace exert more effort on the offensive end from here on out. His defensive prowess is already established; it’s his offensive game that’s more in question. Wallace still makes a risky trade target because of his tendency to get banged up and because his monster lines make him seem more valuable than he really is in his owner’s eyes. In my experiences, people hate trading super-high upside guys like Wallace for anything short of a star.

Darko Milcic is another player to watch. I had a premonition before the season that the Magic might limit his minutes in attempt to keep his market value down, but that seems only half true. His minute have indeed been lower than most people hoped, but it’s mostly been because he hasn’t earned any more time. We might be frustrated that Tony Battie is averaging 24 mpg to Darko’s 22.4, but it’s hard to blame Brian Hill, since Milicic didn’t really earn the extra PT. With the Magic slumping, though, it looks like the tide could be turning and Darko looks to be taking advantage of his opportunity. He’s averaging 27.7 mpg in his last three, putting up 15.7/6/1 with 2 blocks. It would certainly help Milicic’s financial future if he has a solid end to the season, but he’s a 7-footer with some at least decent experience now who will only be 22 when next season starts. He’ll be cashing in, the question is simply how much. It’s not out of the question that he gets an offer of more than $10 million per year, and good numbers for the rest of the season could make that happen.

Don’t need to talk about Mo Williams much. We all knew he was set to be this year’s version of Mike James, and he’s done just that. If there was every any question as to his motivation, his play since returning from a shoulder injury has made them irrelevant. Screw taking a few games to get back into shape. He went for 30/6/10 in 40 minutes in his first game back and is averaging 24/4.2/5.8 with 1.6 steals and 1.6 3s in his last five. He’s also averaging 5 turnovers per contest, but that just tells you that he’s trying to make things happen all the time. When Michael Redd comes back he’s going to get his shots, but Williams sits at #43 on the average rater right now and he should improve on that as he looks to cash in big time.

Some lower level players that might have extra incentive to turn it on in the season’s second half: Andres Nocioni, if he can find himself some consistent playing time; Anderson Varejao, in the same boat; FBB all-time favorite Steve Blake; Mickael Pietrus; Luke Walton, who hopes to continue his career year when he gets healthy; Chucky Atkins, who is in the midst of his big push; Jason Kapono, who has extra incentive to continue launching those 3s; same with Charlie Bell; Travis Outlaw, who could be someone worth watching at least in the season’s last weeks; Morris Peterson, should the opportunity present itself.