If there’s one thing that we learned from the Super Bowl on Sunday, it’s that it’s pretty easy to out-think yourself.  I mean, seriously, how could anyone possibly pick the Bears to win (PR I’m looking at you) with Rex Grossman at QB?  Indy was a stone-cold lock on Sunday Night, but it was pretty easy, with two weeks to think about it, to convince yourself that the Bears could overcome their quarterback and win.  Similarly, it’s easy to convince yourself that some things that we know to be true about fantasy basketball and with that in mind, here are some other stone-cold locks as we move towards the second half of the NBA season.

Baron Davis is going to hurt your team more than he helps it over the final few months.  All of the elements are in place here for Baron.  One, he’s starting to complain of minor injuries, the latest being a wrist issue and some calf problems.  He says he’ll play through it, but history and his coach tell us otherwise.  Two, the Warriors are slipping out of the playoff picture, they’re 2.5 games out now and unless Minnesota or the Clippers start collapsing they should be out of the hunt by mid-March.  And, three, it’s just about that time for Baron.  Last year, Baron basically shut it down in mid-February, coming back part-time for a few games but never really being playable after that point.  The year before, he shut it down in mid-January, only returning after he got dealt to Golden State.  The year before that, he missed nine straight games in March/April - right during the fantasy playoffs.  So you can see the trend here.  Davis owners have to be happy with how things are going so far this year - the FG% is up, he’s missed only a few games, he seems to be playing more under control … but don’t out-think yourself here.  If you can get equal value for Baron, move him now.  NOTE: I wrote this before Baron sat out against the Pacers, but obviously that just proves my point.

Stromile Swift will have major value for about 4 days.  Swift has probably disappointed as many fantasy owners as anyone over the course of his career.  First he was being held back by Hubie Brown who didn’t play anyone more than 25 mpg.  Then he just couldn’t get enough court time behind Lorenzen Wright and Pau Gasol.  The he went to Houston and just flat-out stunk.  Now he’s back in Memphis and is on the verge of his yearly break-out-then-break-apart.  When swift sees minutes, he’s still a good-if-not-great fantasy player.  In games where he’s seen over 30 minutes this year (granted there have only been  7 of them), he’s put up 15.1/7.7 with 1.7 blocks and 0.7 steals.  Those numbers are pretty close to his per-35 minute stats, and once Pau Gasol gets dealt, or once Swift himself gets dealt, there will probably be an opportunity for him to play well for 3 or 4 games.  Here’s the way to play this one:  Pick up Swift now, or at some point when you’ve got an extra roster spot.  Wait until the streak happens, and deal him to a Center-hungry squad for a nice 8th-round value or so.  That’s how I’d play it, at least.

Jermaine O’Neal is a going to miss some time.  You know, you could pretty much do a cut and paste with what I had to say about Baron here.  First, he’s dealing with some injury problems already, struggling with a bruised knee, and this is on the heels of some ankle problems which were preceded by an “unknown virus.”   Two years ago he missed about six weeks between March and April, last year it was eight weeks between January and March.  There have been some loose rumors about O’Neal being dealt before the trading block, which also throws some uncertainty around him, though you can’t imagine there’s much validity to those rumors.  Still, you have to worry about that ‘building for the future’ aspect of the deal the Pacers made last month.  Al Harrington was the best player in that deal and you can make an argument that Stephen Jackson was the second best player.  If they’re really building for the future, O’Neal may be the big piece they send out.  Even if it doesn’t happen before the summer, it might make sense for them to shut him down at some point so he doesn’t injure himself late in the year and hurt his stock.  Oh, and that reminds me:

Good players on bad teams are bad players for good fantasy teams.  We’ll tackle this more in the coming weeks, but we simply can’t forget about how approximately 70% of the NBA decided not to play the last few games last year.  This led to fantasy players scrambling for the Rashad McCants’s of the world to try to salvage their season.  Guys like Ray Allen, Samuel Dalembert, Wally Szczerbiak, or Mike Miller are all good bets to sit out the last week or two of action.  Meaning if you can get even value for them now, you need to start considering it.  That’s not really a stone-cold lock, but this is going to be an interesting trend to watch as the year progresses.