The Emergence of a Fantasy Stud: Andre Iguodala

There aren’t too many reasons to watch the 76ers these days. The team is pretty lousy, its franchise-defining star is gone, and thanks to playing in the Atlantic division, they are often playing a team that’s just as pathetic. Judging by all the empty seats at the Wachovia Center for home games (half sections in the lower level completely empty), the people of Philadelphia largely agree. But for some reason I’ve been watching lots of 76ers games lately and there’s something that’s become apparent, and that’s the fact that Andre Iguodala has blossomed into a legit fantasy superstar.

We were high on Iguodala coming into the season, even if he was slightly disappointing in the 05-06 season, coming just short of predicting a full-fledged breakout: “All of the ingredients are still there – durability (82 games in both seasons), tons of minutes (wouldn’t be surprising to see him push 40 mpg this year), a well-rounded game with no real weakness and one category in which he could possibly be dominant (steals).” That has all held true, and with the departures of Allen Iverson and Chris Webber, Iguodala has really had a chance to shine. We all knew he would benefit when the 76ers would benefit cleaned house and he has fully taken advantage of the opportunity, especially of late. The Sixers aren’t playing half bad basketball, winning 7 of their last 11, including 3 of 4 on the road. Andre Miller and Iguodala are proving to be a decent little combo, and Iguodala has really taken it upon himself to be the leader on this team. Even in the lousy East the Sixers are already basically playing out the schedule but Iguodala is playing with incredible passion. Games against the Warriors, Nets and Bobcats right before the all-star game aren’t exactly games to get up for, but Iguodala has been playing these games to win. He logged 43 minutes last night after logging 48 (in OT) and 45 in the two prior.

In the last 11 games Iggy is averaging 22.9/6.1/7.4 with 2.3 steals on 47% shooting. Those are serious numbers, especially in assists and steals. It was the steals that always made him so appealing, after averaging 1.7 in not even 33 mpg his rookie season. That number held steady despite seeing 5 more minutes last year, but now he’s accumulated the most steals in the league up to this point in the season, jumping ahead of Shawn Marion last night. Marion is a decent reference point, but a far from perfect one. Iggy is certainly more on the SG/SF end of the spectrum while Marion is clearly a rebounding force at PF. But he’s working toward being a seven-category contributor like the Matrix. Iggy’s aggressiveness and accuracy from the stripe and his pass prowess have powered his rise this season. The blocks are unlikely to ever really be there, but there’s still hope for the 3s. He’s taking more than ever this year, they just aren’t falling. Expect him to work hard to add this shot to his arsenal. For a guy who averaged just 8.4 FGA per game last year, his assertiveness over the last few weeks has been very welcome. He’s averaging 15.8 attempts per game over that span, leading the team in attempts in 7 of those 11 games. In the four games he didn’t take the most shots, the team lost three times.

The best thing that Iguodala has going for him is the future of the team. Unless the Sixers hit the jackpot in the lottery, they won’t really have a choice but to feature Iggy as their main man for at least the near future. And even if Kevin Durant or Greg Oden end up in Philly, it won’t be an immediate takeover. Iguodala is locked into an ideal fantasy situation. He’s one of the most durable, high-minute players in the league, has a pass-first PG who can get him some easy baskets, and is the default number one option. And for the first time, he appears to be relishing that role. He currently ranks as the #11 player in the game on the player rater, down to #25 on the APR. But that average is #11 over the past two weeks, and while this may not be the new norm, it may be closer to it than many people realize. The rest of the season and perhaps the next couple will be Iguodala’s extended chance to prove he’s an all-star, a legit building block for a contending team. It remains to be seen whether that’s actually the case, but in fantasy we don’t always care about that. He’s entering his prime, will play more minutes than just about anyone in the league and has a very well-rounded game. Don’t be shocked if you see us advising taking the new AI in the second round next year.

01
February 8th, 2007 10:11 am

Iggy’s been an absolute stud, there’s no question. What’s interesting, too, is that he made the leap almost immediately after that other AI’s departure, which begs the question: What is Iverson’s effect on a team? Given the Nuggets’ recent struggles and Philly’s - I think we’d all agree - overachievement, is The Answer more a cancer? Still, Iggy’s not Marion yet and while I agree the 3’s might start to fall, he’s got to take better care of the ball - it’s the turns that make him just great and not elite for those of us playing in leagues that count TO’s (and, really, aren’t those the only real leagues?).

02
DM
February 8th, 2007 10:47 am

Well, let me just clarify that Iggy won’t ever be Marion. I mean, Marion’s on one of the best extended fantasy runs of the last few decades. And don’t get me started on why I hate leagues that count TOs…

03
February 8th, 2007 10:53 am

Click my name and scroll down for an “I told you so”… :-D

Along with the steals, I have to say Iggy’s assist numbers (which are among the best for a non-PG in the entire league) are what’s really giving him huge value right now. The TOs hurt but if the tradeoff is way more offense then you have to take it.

04
February 8th, 2007 11:06 am

Don’t get me wrong, DM, I’m keen on Iguodala - it’s the assists from his position eligibilities that are so awesome. As for the turnover comment, well, I was trying to get you started - I’d say make your case now but it why not a post unto itself?

05
CBass
February 8th, 2007 11:49 am

I have more quality forwards than I can start in my league. I want to offer Marion for Yao. My starting C right now is Brad Miller. Should i offer Marion?

06
OB
February 8th, 2007 12:01 pm

It seems that in my league no one is willing to trade for mike miller….I am getting the kind of return offers which one would expect if they were trading jr smith…

07
DM
February 8th, 2007 12:40 pm

CBass, I probably would advise against trading the best player in fantasy basketball for a guy who will be out for another month. Maybe that’s just me.

It’s tough getting equal value for first-year big breakout guys like Mike Miller. Sometimes it’s best just to hold onto them.

08
CBass
February 8th, 2007 1:37 pm

In my league, Marion is only the 3rd best forward, not even the best fantasy player. It’s H2H, with points steals, blocks, rebounds, and TO’s. Marion’s dominance in percentages doesn’t help me, so his ranking goes down dramatically. The thinking is that I’d make up enough at center for it to be worth it. I’d be starting Brand, GWallace, and Jefferson at forward. I don’t think I’d lose too many points downgrading from Marion to Jefferson. See my thinking here?

09
Rook
February 8th, 2007 2:03 pm

Would you include Iguodala with the players you mentioned a few days ago as someone not to target this year since he may sit out the last few games of the season?

10
DM
February 8th, 2007 2:17 pm

I think BV and I may be in slight disagreement about that column a few days ago, but in any case, Iggy has never missed a game in his career. Don’t want to jinx him, but I don’t see him sitting out unless there’s a damn good reason.

11
OB
February 8th, 2007 2:22 pm

CBass - GWallace is only as good as his health…if he goes down, so do your steals…and yao will not give you any steals…jefferson is not always reliable either, specially with blocks…marion gives you steals and blocks, and 3s….yao is nice but at the end i would still not give marion for yao…

since you are already getting a lot of center stats from your forwards maybe you can trade someone else for a decent center and not yao….

12
CBass
February 8th, 2007 2:47 pm

Thanks, OB, and I see your point on Marion maybe being too much to give. But this is a H2H league, not Roto. Which means if Jefferson scores 18 with 13 boards and no blocks, he still provided a great night because points are points and cats don’t matter. I’ll make the playoffs no matter what, and Yao might push me over the edge. Maybe offer Brand intead of Marion? Possibly someone like Chauncey or Joe Johnson? Problem is I don’t have a good backup guard to take their places. I just think making a move now on a Yao owner desparate for center production would pay dividends in the playoffs.

13
February 8th, 2007 3:33 pm

Sounds like you’ve sold yourself into the idea and since I doubt many of us here are playing in 5-cat leagues (PTS/REB/BLK/STL/TO as you said), Marion for Yao could be a great trade for you given your scenario.

14
el carg
February 8th, 2007 4:08 pm

Not quite FFL, but a little discussion on the Nuggets’s struggles.

AI and Melo playing together hasn’t been the problem. Melo being pouty and out of shape seems to be more of an issue. AI works well with Blake and Nene, while it seems that Melo and JR want to do it together. If all five could get it going watch out.

“How did the Nuggets let Melo and JR get so out of shape during the suspension?” You do something so stupid on a college team and you run your ass off.. Melo seems to be feeling sorry for himself. I think they need to bring in Bo Outlaw or some other old school muscle guy — is Oakley available? — to kick this team in gear.

This team can win, but they’ve got to find some heart and teamwork. Maybe the road trip will help them.

15
bv
February 8th, 2007 7:57 pm

rook,
i’d say that generally younger guys are not susceptible to the ’sitting out games at the end of the year for no reason’ rule. usually the younger players are still going to play regardless just so they gain the experience.

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